BlackRock is about to apply for an XRP ETF? Analyst: A wave of approvals may come on October 18, and the price is expected to break through $3.

Ripple (XRP) rebounded strongly by 3.5% on September 25, temporarily reporting at $2.89, ending a six-day downtrend, with market sentiment clearly turning optimistic. As the countdown begins for the approval of the XRP Spot ETF, investors are focused on a key question: Will the world's largest asset management company BlackRock join the XRP ETF race? Analysts predict that the SEC may approve a batch of XRP Spot ETFs before October 18, and BlackRock's potential involvement could completely change the market landscape.

XRP Spot ETF approval is imminent: the countdown has begun

Nate Geraci, President of NovaDius Wealth Management, recently shared an important report indicating that there may be a final wave of ETF amendments submitted this weekend, including revisions to the XRP Spot ETF application. These documents suggest that the applying companies will continue to engage in dialogue with the SEC, and approval may be forthcoming.

“This weekend, various Spot cryptocurrency ETFs, including XRP and SOL, may receive the final wave of amendments… These applications have been in the review process for quite a long time. The countdown has already begun,” Geraci stated in the report.

Currently, seven institutions have submitted applications for an XRP Spot ETF, including 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary Capital, CoinShares, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and WisdomTree. Although the final approval deadlines are spread between October 18 and November 14, market analysts generally believe that the SEC is likely to approve all applications on October 18 to avoid giving any issuer a first-mover advantage.

“The timing of the SEC's approvals is strategically significant,” explained cryptocurrency analyst Sarah Johnson. “Approving multiple applications simultaneously can create a fair competitive environment and prevent first-mover advantages from leading to excessive market concentration, which has been a concern for regulators.”

The Amazing Growth of the Crypto ETF Market

The performance of the cryptocurrency ETF market is remarkable. Geraci emphasized: “Since the S&P 500 Index hit a low on April 8, the inflow of spot cryptocurrency ETFs has continued to lead 'all' ETF categories. The inflow amount is close to $35 billion.”

This data far exceeds other asset classes. For example, the net inflow of precious metal ETFs (including gold) during the same period was only $22.4 billion.

Cryptocurrency trader DREGEN commented on this phenomenon: “When you see that cryptocurrency Spot is far ahead in all categories, it says everything you need to know. A massive new influx of capital is pouring into this space. Will there be a batch of new ETFs listed next month? It's really hard not to feel incredibly optimistic right now. The demand is real.”

BlackRock: Potential Game Changer for the XRP ETF Market

Despite the fact that seven institutions have currently applied for XRP Spot ETFs, the market is still most focused on the actions of BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) have already dominated the cryptocurrency ETF market, with net inflows reaching an astonishing $60.7 billion and $13.4 billion respectively.

In comparison, the net inflows for Fidelity's second-ranked BTC and ETH Spot ETFs were 12.4 billion dollars and 2.8 billion dollars, respectively, showing a significant gap.

“BlackRock's market influence cannot be underestimated,” ETF analyst Michael Wong stated. “If BlackRock launches the iShares XRP Trust, it is likely to replicate the success of IBIT and ETHA, attracting a significant influx of institutional funds into the XRP market.”

Will BlackRock apply for an XRP ETF?

In August of this year, Nate Geraci speculated on BlackRock's XRP ETF strategy: “BlackRock is just waiting for the SEC to approve a universal listing standard for crypto ETFs, and then it will apply for Spot XRP and SOL ETFs.”

This speculation seems to be becoming a reality. On September 18, the SEC approved the general listing standards for commodity trust shares, eliminating the need for ETF issuers to submit Form 19-b and undergo SEC review, provided that the ETF meets the general listing standards.

“This regulatory change has paved the way for BlackRock to quickly enter the XRP ETF market,” explained financial regulatory expert Jennifer Lee, “BlackRock can now submit applications immediately without undergoing a lengthy approval process.”

Although BlackRock has not publicly disclosed its XRP ETF plans, the market generally expects the company to act soon. BlackRock's participation could be a key catalyst for XRP prices to break historical highs.

XRP Technical Analysis: Key Price Levels and Breakout Points

(Source: Trading View)

On September 25, XRP rose by 3.57%, reversing a 0.4% fall from the previous trading day, closing at $2.9273. This rebound ended a six-day decline and outperformed the market (0.83%) while climbing towards a key resistance level.

Technical analyst Robert Chen pointed out several key price levels:

Support level:

2.8 USD (short-term key support)

2.5 dollars (mid-term support)

Resistance level:

3 dollars (psychological barrier)

3.2 USD (mid-term resistance)

3.335 USD (strong resistance)

3.66 USD (historical high price)

“XRP is currently in a critical technical position,” Chen explained, “a breakthrough of 3 USD will open the way to 3.2 USD, while losing 2.8 USD could lead to a pullback to 2.5 USD. ETF-related news will be the key factor determining the short-term trend.”

Key Catalysts Affecting XRP Price

Analysts believe that the following key events may drive the price trend of XRP in the short term:

XRP ETF Demand: Institutional investors' level of interest in XRP Spot ETF

BlackRock's involvement: Has BlackRock applied for iShares XRP Trust?

Corporate Adoption: Will blue-chip companies use XRP as a treasury reserve asset?

Regulatory Milestone: Progress of Ripple's Application for a U.S. Charter Bank License

Legislative Development: Status of the Market Structure Bill's Passage

SWIFT Related News: Changes in the Competitive Landscape of Global Payment Systems

Bullish and Bearish Scenario Analysis

Depending on the development of different catalysts, the price of XRP may face two completely different scenarios:

Bullish Scenario:

· BITW, GDLC, and XRPR report strong capital inflows

· BlackRock applies for iShares XRP Trust, SEC approves XRP Spot ETF

· Blue-chip companies adopt XRP as a financial reserve asset

· Ripple has obtained a U.S. chartered bank license.

· The Senate passed the Market Structure Bill

· SWIFT market share shifting to Ripple

“The combination of these bullish factors may drive XRP to break through the psychological barrier of $3,” market strategist David Wang said, “A sustained breakthrough of $3.2 is expected to test $3.335, and even challenge the historical high of $3.66.”

Bearish Scenario:

· ETF fund inflows are weak, BlackRock abandons XRP ETF plan

· SEC rejects XRP Spot ETF application

· Crypto-friendly regulations face obstacles

· Companies avoid using XRP as a reserve asset

· Regulatory authorities delayed or rejected Ripple's banking license application.

· SWIFT maintains market dominance

“These negative factors may cause XRP to fall below the $2.8 support level,” Wang warned, “If this support level is lost, $2.5 will become the next key defense line.”

Conclusion: The key moment for XRP has arrived

As the countdown to the approval of the XRP Spot ETF begins, the market is at a critical turning point. Although the Senate vote on the market structure bill may be delayed, investors' attention has shifted to the XRP Spot ETF application.

The launch of the XRP Spot ETF, especially if there is participation from BlackRock, could stimulate unprecedented institutional demand and has the potential to drive the XRP price to new highs. However, the continued delays in approval and regulatory hurdles may still limit its upward potential.

“The coming weeks are crucial for XRP,” senior crypto analyst Mark Johnson summarized, “The ETF decision on October 18 will be a watershed event, and whether BlackRock participates may determine if XRP can break through its historical high. Regardless of the outcome, we will witness a pivotal moment in the development of XRP.”

Investors should closely monitor regulatory developments and institutional trends, while also preparing to respond to market fluctuations. The future of XRP may depend on how these key catalysts unfold.