Is the E-Guardian completely crazy? The probability of ETH reaching a price of $14,000 within this year on Polymarket has already reached 5%. Currently, the price of ETH is $4,200, which means it needs to rise 333% in less than 5 months, a net increase of $10,000 to achieve this. Is the market sentiment obviously overheated? A simple "financial" analysis 👇:

0, what does it mean for ETH to rise above 14,000? If the current ETH to BTC exchange rate remains unchanged, after BTC rises by 333%, its market value will exceed 7.8 trillion USD, surpassing the world's largest company, NVIDIA ($4.46 trillion), and even the combined value of NVIDIA and Google ($2.44 trillion) will not be enough.

1. If you buy "ETH will reach $14,000 within this year" at this moment, with a return of 4.9%, annualized at about 12.5%, investing 100,000 u will yield an income of 4,900 u;

2. Furthermore, we can combine "ETH will reach a new high this year" with Yes. Currently, ETH is only 668 dollars away from the previous high of 4868 dollars, which is a very small number compared to the previous 10000 dollars. The probability of this Yes currently stands at 74%.

How to combine? You can use the potential profits of the former to gamble on the latter, a simple way is
(1) Buying "ETH worth 100,000 dollars will reach 14,000 dollars this year" No, potential return 4,900 dollars
(2) Buy "ETH reaching a new high this year" for 4900 dollars, potential return 1274 dollars.

Expected Profit and Loss:
(1) The high point of ETH this year is lower than 4868, break-even, no gains and no losses;
(2) The ETH high point this year is between 4868 and 14000, with a return of 6174 dollars, an annualized rate of 15.7%;
(3) ETH's price exceeded 14000 this year, resulting in a loss of 98726 dollars, with a 94% loss of principal;

Of course, you can also choose more aggressive markets with higher interest rates, such as ETH reaching 10000, ETH reaching 8000, which also means higher risks. The price of 14000 is a relatively safe level in my mind.