Is the E-Watcher completely crazy? The probability of ETH reaching a price of 14,000 dollars this year on polymarket has already reached 5%. The current price of ETH is 4,200 dollars, and it needs to rise by 333% in less than 4 months, with a net price increase of 10,000 dollars to reach that. Is the market sentiment obviously overheated? A simple "financial" analysis 👇:

0, what does it mean for ETH to rise above 14000? If the current ETH to BTC exchange rate remains unchanged, after a 333% rise, BTC's market cap will exceed 7.8 trillion dollars, surpassing the world's largest company, Nvidia ($4.46 trillion), and even combining Nvidia and Google ($2.44 trillion) wouldn't be enough to match it.

1. If you buy "ETH reaching 14,000 dollars this year" at this time, with a return of 4.9%, the annualized return is about 12.5%. Investing 100,000u will yield 4,900u;

2. Furthermore, it is possible to combine "ETH reaching a new high this year" with Yes. Now, ETH is only 668 dollars away from its previous high of 4868 dollars, which is a small number compared to the previous 10000 dollars. The probability of this Yes is currently 74%.

How to combine? You can use the potential profit of the former to bet on the latter, a simple way is to
(1) Buying "ETH worth 100,000 dollars to reach 14,000 dollars this year" No, potential return 4,900 dollars
(2) Buying $4900 of "ETH will reach a new high this year" Yes, potential return $1274

Expected Profit and Loss:
(1) The high point of ETH this year is below 4868, break-even, with no gains and no losses;
(2) ETH's peak this year is between 4868 and 14000, with a profit of 6174, annualized at 15.7%;
(3) ETH's price exceeded 14000 this year, resulting in a loss of 98726 dollars, with a 94% loss of principal;

Of course, you can also choose more aggressive markets with higher interest rates, for example, ETH reaching 10000 and ETH reaching 8000, which also means higher risks. A price of 14000 is relatively a safe level in my mind.