There is not much time left for the market maker to whipsaw.

A couple of days ago, the US dollar index suddenly plummeted, and the fundamental reason is that the Federal Reserve hinted at a "possible interest rate cut in September." The market responded immediately, starting to bet in advance on "easing." Now, the market believes that the probability of an interest rate cut in September exceeds 60%, and even the originally unlikely July has a 20% chance.
Interest rate cuts mean that bank interest decreases, and a lot of funds will flow out from low-risk places to seek higher-yielding assets, such as the stock market and Bitcoin. Therefore, once interest rate cuts begin, there will be more money in the market, which is beneficial for high-risk assets.
However, there are still many people who are bearish, mainly because the technical trends are not good, the international situation is unstable, the Federal Reserve is still tightening, and both the US stock market and Bitcoin are stuck at high levels, neither going up nor down.
These make sense, but they are not necessarily all correct. Bitcoin is a market controlled by large funds, and technical patterns can easily be "performed"; the international situation has become something everyone is used to, and reactions are becoming increasingly muted; more importantly, many countries around the world have already started to cut interest rates, and expectations have long been prompting funds to enter the market.
For example, if the market capitalization of stablecoins increases by 2 billion USD over 5 days, it is a sign that funds are quietly coming in. The market looks quiet, but in fact, it is gathering strength.
The key issue is: if the market makers really want to crash the market, they need to act quickly. Because by the time interest rates are actually cut in September, retail investors will rush in to buy the dip, and the cost of whipsawing will be high. So the best window of opportunity might be in July or August.
If there is a sudden interest rate cut in July, it will catch the market off guard. The market may first break through and then reverse, tricking retail investors in before harvesting them.
In simple terms, the current market is not really bearish; instead, it might be a silence before the rise. If the interest rate cut really comes in July, that would be a signal for an early start, and the market could change suddenly. There isn't much time left for the market maker to whipsaw, and similarly, there isn't much time left for retail investors to buy the dip.
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