DXY & Forex

Central banks are now holding more gold reserves than valuation-adjusted US dollar reserves for the first time, with a $140 billion gap favoring gold. This shift reflects growing geopolitical concerns and the unreliability of dollar reserves, as central banks increasingly prefer gold amidst uncertainty.

The United States and Iran held historic direct talks on April 11 in Islamabad, Pakistan, marking the first high-level diplomatic contact since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. The aim is to stabilize the ceasefire and seek a war-resolution solution. Both delegations are large in size, and Pakistan is serving as the intermediary. The negotiations are set against the backdrop of recent military clashes and their impact on global financial markets, and the market will closely watch developments.

Gate News message: On April 10, based on the CPI data released today, Citigroup Group’s economists initially forecast that the March core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the inflation gauge preferred by the Federal Reserve) month-over-month rate will be 0.3%. This figure is above the level implied by the Fed’s 2% year-over-year target, but it is better than February’s 0.4% increase. The Citigroup team noted that, compared with the PCE indicator favored by the Fed, core CPI has consistently shown an unusually small rise. They also need to factor in PPI data to make a more accurate forecast for PCE.

On April 10, the precious metals market was strong: gold rose to $4,773.60 per ounce, and silver rose to $76.364 per ounce. In the crypto market, volatility eased, the FX market saw the U.S. dollar weaken versus the Chinese yuan, and global equity indexes rose. In commodities, WTI crude oil rose while Brent crude oil fell. The Gate platform supports trading a variety of financial assets.

The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that in February, the core PCE price index rose 3.0% year over year, while overall PCE increased 2.8% year over year. Both figures are in line with market expectations, and inflation pressure remains stable. Even though people’s income has declined, consumer spending is still increasing, and the savings rate has fallen to 4.0%. The market’s view on the interest-rate cut path is somewhat neutral: inflation has not meaningfully worsened, but it has also not been dropping rapidly.

Gate News, April 10, according to Reuters, the market continues to price in expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged throughout 2026.

Gate News message, April 10, after the CPI data was released, the latest price of WTI U.S. crude oil (U.S. West Texas Intermediate) was $97.57 per barrel, and Brent crude oil (the international benchmark) was latest at $95.46 per barrel. The U.S. Dollar Index DXY (an indicator that measures the strength of the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies) fell 10 points in the short term, with the latest reading at 98.68.

Gate News message: On April 10, the U.S. dollar spot index has fallen cumulatively by about 1.4% this week, marking the largest weekly drop since January. After the CPI data was released, market trading strategies focused on buying the U.S. dollar and oil. The foreign exchange market has now entered a news-headline-driven trading phase, and progress in the Iran-U.S. negotiations amid a fragile ceasefire is becoming the new focal point.

Gate News message: On April 10, according to CME "FedWatch" data, before the CPI data is released, the probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points in April is 1.6%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 98.4%. Looking ahead to June, the probability of cumulative rate cuts of 25 basis points is 1.5%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 96.8%, and the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points is 1.7%.

Gate News, on April 10, Daly, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said that if the Iran conflict is resolved quickly and oil prices fall, a rate cut is “not impossible.” She also noted that the likelihood of a rate hike is lower than the likelihood of cutting rates or keeping interest rates unchanged.

A cryptocurrency exchange became the first CEX to be approved for a Federal Reserve master account, but the account is restricted—access is limited to the Fedwire payment system, and it cannot earn interest. This move has sparked concerns about financial risk and transparency in the U.S., and regulatory experts warn it could affect financial stability. The exchange said it is complying with anti–money laundering requirements.

Analyze market expectations before the release of the U.S. March CPI data, divergences in the inflation structure, and the potential transmission pathways to crypto assets’ risk appetite.

ING analyst Francesco Pesole said that if U.S. March CPI were to accelerate sharply due to energy prices rising after the Iran war, the dollar could receive support. He noted that whether core inflation shows any second-round effects will be crucial for the Federal Reserve’s policy in the coming months.

The Iranian government charges oil tankers a $1 per-barrel toll for passage through the Strait of Hormuz and requires payment in bitcoin to bypass U.S. sanctions. This move has caused extreme volatility in the cryptocurrency market, with bitcoin’s price surging, highlighting the importance of digital assets in geopolitics. Global shipping has been disrupted, Iran and the United States have taken differing positions in ceasefire talks, and financial markets have also roiled in response to this event.

The Federal Reserve's recent minutes revealed mixed signals on potential rate changes, influenced by inflation and geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin's price is currently around $71,000, with analysts divided on its future amid these macroeconomic pressures, relying on factors like the Iran ceasefire and inflation trends.

Bitcoin’s official rise today reached $71,800, mainly because Israel and Lebanon have begun direct negotiations, reducing market concerns about an Iran ceasefire agreement. In addition, a weaker US dollar and continued buying by institutional investors also pushed prices higher. On the technical side, Bitcoin’s key support levels are $68,500 to $70,000. A break above $76,000 to $78,000 could prompt another test of $80,000 to $85,000.

April 10, gold and silver prices fell slightly, trading at $4,758.37 per ounce and $75.165 per ounce, respectively. The Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVIX) dropped to 44.36, and in the foreign exchange market, the U.S. dollar rose against the offshore yuan and the Japanese yen. Major European stock indexes generally declined, while WTI and Brent crude oil rose slightly. The Gate platform supports trading a variety of financial market products.

Gate News message, on April 9, tonight April 10, the U.S. CPI data will be released. The market is focused on the impact of the “Iran premium” driven by the surge in oil prices. In the bond market, traders have increased their positions in options betting on upside in the 5-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields. A JPMorgan Chase survey shows that currently, net long sentiment in the spot market has fallen to a three-week low. In the macro backdrop, the cumulative gain in Brent crude oil this year is already close to 60%. For interest-rate expectations, the probability the market is pricing for a 25-basis-point rate cut once in 2026 is about 30%.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, NZDJPY (NZD/JPY) has surged by 1% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market activity.

Gate News message: On April 9, the U.S. reported that the February Core PCE price index (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, a key inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve) came in at 3% year-over-year, in line with the market’s expected value of 3%.