DXY & Forex

Analyze market expectations before the release of the U.S. March CPI data, divergences in the inflation structure, and the potential transmission pathways to crypto assets’ risk appetite.

ING analyst Francesco Pesole said that if U.S. March CPI were to accelerate sharply due to energy prices rising after the Iran war, the dollar could receive support. He noted that whether core inflation shows any second-round effects will be crucial for the Federal Reserve’s policy in the coming months.

The Iranian government charges oil tankers a $1 per-barrel toll for passage through the Strait of Hormuz and requires payment in bitcoin to bypass U.S. sanctions. This move has caused extreme volatility in the cryptocurrency market, with bitcoin’s price surging, highlighting the importance of digital assets in geopolitics. Global shipping has been disrupted, Iran and the United States have taken differing positions in ceasefire talks, and financial markets have also roiled in response to this event.

The Federal Reserve's recent minutes revealed mixed signals on potential rate changes, influenced by inflation and geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin's price is currently around $71,000, with analysts divided on its future amid these macroeconomic pressures, relying on factors like the Iran ceasefire and inflation trends.

Bitcoin’s official rise today reached $71,800, mainly because Israel and Lebanon have begun direct negotiations, reducing market concerns about an Iran ceasefire agreement. In addition, a weaker US dollar and continued buying by institutional investors also pushed prices higher. On the technical side, Bitcoin’s key support levels are $68,500 to $70,000. A break above $76,000 to $78,000 could prompt another test of $80,000 to $85,000.

April 10, gold and silver prices fell slightly, trading at $4,758.37 per ounce and $75.165 per ounce, respectively. The Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVIX) dropped to 44.36, and in the foreign exchange market, the U.S. dollar rose against the offshore yuan and the Japanese yen. Major European stock indexes generally declined, while WTI and Brent crude oil rose slightly. The Gate platform supports trading a variety of financial market products.

Gate News message, on April 9, tonight April 10, the U.S. CPI data will be released. The market is focused on the impact of the “Iran premium” driven by the surge in oil prices. In the bond market, traders have increased their positions in options betting on upside in the 5-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields. A JPMorgan Chase survey shows that currently, net long sentiment in the spot market has fallen to a three-week low. In the macro backdrop, the cumulative gain in Brent crude oil this year is already close to 60%. For interest-rate expectations, the probability the market is pricing for a 25-basis-point rate cut once in 2026 is about 30%.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, NZDJPY (NZD/JPY) has surged by 1% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market activity.

Gate News message: On April 9, the U.S. reported that the February Core PCE price index (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, a key inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve) came in at 3% year-over-year, in line with the market’s expected value of 3%.

Gate News message: On April 9, Hasett, the director of the National Economic Council at the White House, said that interest rates should be lower. He expects that the current Federal Reserve chair, Powell, will not remain in his role as a Federal Reserve governor. Earlier news: Trump nominated Wosh to be the chair of the Federal Reserve, and the Senate hearing is expected to be held on April 16.