Commodities (Crude Oil & Copper) & Macro Outlook

Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf warned that the U.S. oil price would rise due to blockade measures, hinting at retaliation against the United States. At the same time, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are escalating, and market forecasts suggest that oil prices could break above $115 per barrel. The U.S. and Britain differ on their stance toward the blockade of Hormuz, and there are also differences in statements between Trump and the Central Command, affecting the likely future direction of oil prices.

The U.S. imposes a naval blockade on Iran, causing the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks to fall apart. Market risk sentiment intensifies, and Bitcoin drops to $71,000, with a 24-hour decline of 3.1%. Traditional market capital flows into safe-haven assets, and analysts are divided on Bitcoin’s future trend, with $70,000 support acting as a key level.

The U.S. announces a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to respond to the collapse of U.S.-Iran peace talks, triggering a sharp surge in oil prices. Oil prices rebound to above $100, and U.S. stock index futures fall. Gold and cryptocurrencies also slip; Bitcoin falls back to above 70K, and the total market value drops to $2.41 trillion.

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, XTIUSD (WTI Crude USOIL) has surged by 8% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market

Gate News: According to the latest Gate TradFi data, XTIUSD (WTI Crude USOIL) has dropped by 2% in a short period. Current volatility is significantly higher than recent averages, indicating increased market

Trump posted on Truth Social that many large tankers are delivering low-sulfur, high-quality crude oil to the United States, reflecting that geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran have led to rising demand in the market for alternative supplies. The United States has currently become the world’s largest crude oil producer, and its sweet crude oil has advantages in refining costs and efficiency. This kind of situation could reduce reliance on Middle Eastern oil, stabilize oil prices, and affect global risk assets, including the Bitcoin market.

U.S. President Trump blockaded the Strait of Hormuz because Iran refused to give up its nuclear weapons program, causing crude oil futures prices on the decentralized platform Hyperliquid to surge by 7%. The market saw intense fluctuations due to concerns about a supply disruption, making it an important venue for price discovery. Strategic petroleum reserves are about to run out, supply risks in the oil market are intensifying, and this could trigger even more severe inflation pressure.

Gate News update, on April 12, U.S. President Trump said that once the situation calms down, oil and natural gas prices will ultimately fall. He noted that oil and natural gas prices could be lower before the midterm election, or they could be slightly higher.

Fueled by the U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflict, Western banks have accelerated their exit from large-scale commodity trade finance due to compliance and sanctions risks, prompting traders to shift to stablecoins for cross-border settlement. Stablecoins have become an alternative settlement tool; their usage is rising, with market value exceeding $300 billion and on-chain transaction volume reaching $4 trillion.

Gate News message, A whale identified as "0x9e8" closed the majority of its $SILVER long position with 20x leverage and opened a 95,577 $CL long position with 20x leverage valued at $9 million over the past 5 hours. This trading activity occurred as the U.S.-Iran negotiations did not reach success.

Bank of America releases a report, adjusting its global economic outlook due to geopolitical shocks in the Middle East. The U.S. growth forecast for 2026 is lowered to 2.3%, and inflation is raised to 3.1%. The eurozone growth forecast is cut, with inflation raised to 3.3%. The report emphasizes that the impact of the shocks is uneven.

U.S. President Trump reposted a report on April 12, saying he may take a maritime blockade strategy against Iran to apply pressure, which drew attention after negotiations broke down. Similar to the approach that previously succeeded in Venezuela, Trump intends to influence Iran’s oil exports by controlling the Strait of Hormuz, while two U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups have already been deployed. This move could reignite volatility in crude oil prices and geopolitical risks.

The breakdown of the nuclear talks between Iran and the U.S. caused Bitcoin to surge and then pull back, with the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and macroeconomic data becoming the focus. This article will explain the logic behind volatility in the crypto market amid geopolitical conflict and the movement of on-chain capital.

The U.S. vice president, Vance, did not reach an agreement in the US-Iran negotiations held in Islamabad. The core dispute is that Iran refused the U.S. demand for a nuclear weapons commitment. The breakdown of the talks has increased geopolitical risk, affecting financial markets—especially crude oil and Bitcoin prices. Even though the negotiations were unsuccessful, both sides may still continue discussions, and the market will watch for further developments.

Gate News message. On April 12, according to on-chain data monitoring, Sky (formerly MakerDAO) co-founder Rune’s 7x leveraged Nasdaq 100 short positions have all been closed. He currently still holds 20x leveraged WTI crude oil futures long positions, 7x leveraged Brent crude oil long positions, and 20x leveraged S&P 500 short positions, and all of them are in a loss position. His overall position value has now fallen to about $680k, with an unrealized loss of about $60k, and the return on investment is -21.78%.

Iran-U.S. third round of talks in Pakistan has ended. Iran says this is the “last chance” to reach a framework agreement. There are significant differences between the two sides on core issues such as the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear issue, and no substantive progress has been made. The negotiations are still ongoing; the situation is complex, and both military actions and diplomatic games are escalating in parallel.

An Iran-U.S. peace negotiation is about to begin. The Iranian delegation consists of 71 people and is led by Speaker Kalibaf; the U.S. side has a 300-person delegation, mainly security and guard personnel. The two sides’ lineup differences are significant, and the negotiations will touch on sensitive issues such as economic sanctions and nuclear facilities.

CNN reported that a security source in Iran said the Strait of Hormuz will continue to be blocked before Iran and the United States reach a negotiated joint framework, because the U.S. side has put forward excessive demands. Iran emphasized that it is not in a hurry to take action; things will remain as they are, and the number of ship passages also cannot be realized.

According to data from a research institution, crypto perpetual contracts that are anchored to traditional assets are gradually becoming a tool for “pre-pricing Wall Street,” with their weekend price movements predicting the accuracy of Monday’s traditional market by as much as 89%. Trading volume and weekend activity for these contracts have increased significantly, and they have become an important reference for gauging the short-term direction of traditional markets.

In a statement on April 11, Trump said that Iran’s military power was severely dealt a blow, with its navy, air force, and air defense systems nearly destroyed, leaving only naval mines as a threat. The United States is clearing the Strait of Hormuz and is also assisting multiple countries in transporting oil.