Arthur Hayes boldly claims that Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of the year, with liquidity being a key variable.

In November 2025, Arthur Hayes predicted in his latest blog post that Bitcoin could rebound to $200,000 by the end of the year, although it may further dip to the range of $80,000 to $85,000 in the short term. Hayes attributed Bitcoin's recent fall below $90,000 to the deterioration of dollar liquidity, pointing out that the decrease in inflows to ETFs and DATs is clear evidence.

At the time this optimistic prediction was released, Bitcoin was undergoing a significant correction, having fallen nearly 30% from its historical high of $126,000, leading to a panic in market sentiment. However, Hayes believes that once the adjustment of U.S. dollar liquidity is completed, Bitcoin will experience a rebound similar to that after the U.S.-China tariff ceasefire in April 2025, when Bitcoin surged 21% within 21 days.

Arthur Hayes' Liquidity Theory and Market Validation

Arthur Hayes's analytical framework for Bitcoin prices is centered around changes in US dollar liquidity. He suggests that Bitcoin operates as an asset based on expectations of future fiat currency supply, citing the US tariff truce on April 9, 2025, as a key event supporting this theory. Before the truce, the cryptocurrency market was severely impacted, with BTC falling to multi-month lows due to the US-China trade war. After the tariff ceasefire, Bitcoin rebounded by 21% within 21 days, with other assets like Ethereum also following suit.

Hayes recently claimed that the implied dollar liquidity of Bitcoin has deteriorated, causing the leading cryptocurrency to slide from its historical high of $126,000 to below $90,000. This analysis is supported by actual data—Bitcoin spot ETF inflows have significantly slowed, while dollar liquidity indicators show that global capital is shifting from risk assets to safe assets like government bonds. This liquidity contraction has created a ripple effect in the pricing of risk assets, with Bitcoin, as a high-beta asset, being the first to feel the impact.

Market Divergence and Expert Opinions

In contrast to Arthur Hayes' optimistic prediction, other market experts hold different views on the future of Bitcoin. Well-known analyst Benjamin Cowen speculates that Bitcoin is most likely to fall to the $60,000 range in 2026. Cowen's prediction is based on the fact that Bitcoin is approaching a bear market, and this argument will be confirmed when the token moves towards the 200-week simple moving average as it has in past bear market cycles.

However, unlike Cowen, other market experts such as Ted Pillows hold an optimistic view, explaining that Bitcoin typically sees the largest gains when the ISM is at 50. Currently, the index is at 48.7, indicating that we have not yet entered a bear market cycle. This divergence in expert opinions reflects the uncertainty of the market at the current crossroads, where the interaction between technical factors and the macro backdrop makes price predictions exceptionally complicated.

Comparison of Bullish and Bearish Views on Bitcoin

Bullish outlook: Arthur Hayes predicts $200,000 by the end of the year, Ted Pillows points out that the ISM has not reached bear market threshold.

Bearish outlook: Benjamin Cowen predicts a dip to $60,000 in 2026, based on the historical pattern of the 200-week SMA.

Current price level: down nearly 30% from the high of 126,000, briefly dipping below 90,000 USD.

Liquidity conditions: ETF inflows slow down, dollar liquidity deteriorates, institutions buy on dips.

Institutional Behavior and Market Bottom Signals

Despite worsening market conditions and widespread FUD, institutions and whales continue to buy during the BTC dip. Cameron Winklevoss, co-founder of an exchange, believes this is a unique buying opportunity that may never come again. This institutional confidence is built on the long-term narrative of Bitcoin as a store of value and a hedge against inflation.

From on-chain data, the accumulation pattern of large holders shows an interesting divergence from the price trend. Although the price has significantly fallen from its peak, the number of addresses holding over 1000 BTC remains stable or even slightly increased. This holding behavior indicates that long-term investors see the current price level as an accumulation opportunity rather than a reason for panic selling. Historical patterns suggest that this behavior by holders is often an important signal that the market is approaching bottom regions.

Bitcoin Macroeconomic Background and Policy Impact

The macro background facing Bitcoin is complex and variable. The monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve remains a key influencing factor, and traders are currently lacking confidence in the likelihood of a rate cut in December, with swap contracts now implying a probability of less than 50% for a December action. Several policymakers have recently warned against rate cuts citing inflation risks, although Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller reiterated his support for a rate cut.

From a broader perspective, global risk assets are undergoing repricing. Technology stock valuations are retreating, government bond yields are volatile, and geopolitical uncertainties persist. These factors collectively form the macro backdrop for Bitcoin trading. In this environment, the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional risk assets fluctuates, reflecting the market's evolving understanding of its asset characteristics. In the short term, this dynamic of correlation will continue to influence capital flows and price discovery.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis and Key Levels

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin needs to hold the key support area of 85,000-90,000 USD to maintain a long-term bullish structure. If this area is lost, it could open the door to a dip to 80,000 USD or even lower levels. Currently, price movements indicate that the market is testing these key technical levels, and volume analysis shows significant buying interest below 90,000 USD.

The momentum indicators suggest that Bitcoin may be approaching a short-term oversold region, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) nearing the oversold threshold across multiple time frames. However, in a strong downtrend, oversold conditions can persist for an extended period, making it risky to rely solely on momentum indicators as reversal signals. Volatility indicators such as the Bitcoin Volatility Index remain high, indicating that the market expects price fluctuations to continue in the near term.

Bitcoin Cycle Analysis and Historical Comparison

Comparing the current market conditions with historical cycles can provide useful references. From a time perspective, Bitcoin typically undergoes a consolidation period of 12-18 months after the previous cycle peak before starting a new upward trend. If this pattern holds, the current adjustment may lay the groundwork for a potential rise in 2026.

However, unlike previous cycles, this round of adjustment occurred after the approval of spot ETFs and significant improvements in institutional infrastructure. The participation of traditional financial institutions may change the market dynamics of Bitcoin, requiring adjustments to analysis frameworks that are purely based on historical patterns. In particular, the holding periods of institutional investors are usually longer than those of retail investors, which may reduce market volatility and raise price bottoms.

Arthur Hayes' prediction of $200,000 undoubtedly highlights his strong confidence in Bitcoin, despite the market's panic sentiment contrasting sharply with his optimism — this divergence itself may be the norm in the crypto market. Amid the ebb and flow of dollar liquidity, Bitcoin is transforming from a speculative asset to a macro asset, and each deep correction tests the resilience of this new identity. Hayes' prediction may be overly aggressive, but his insight into the importance of liquidity reveals the increasingly close connection between the crypto market and traditional finance.

FAQ

What is Arthur Hayes' basis for his prediction on Bitcoin?

Based on the analysis of changes in USD liquidity, he believes that Bitcoin is an expected asset for the future supply of fiat currencies. The current deterioration in liquidity has led to a fall, but after the adjustment is completed, it will see a rebound similar to that after the tariff truce in April 2025.

What are the main reasons for Bitcoin's recent dip?

Hayes attributes the deterioration of U.S. dollar liquidity to the decrease in ETF inflows and the global capital shift towards safe assets like government bonds, leading to the sell-off of high-risk assets.

What are the differences in market experts' views on the prospects of Bitcoin?

Hayes predicts $200,000 by the end of the year, Benjamin Cowen is bearish at $60,000, while Ted Pillows believes that the ISM index of 48.7 indicates that we have not yet entered a bear market, with the divergence reflecting market uncertainty.

How should institutional investors operate in the current market?

Despite market panic, institutions and whales continue to buy the dip, with on-chain data showing that the number of large holder addresses remains stable. The co-founder of Gemini calls this a unique buying opportunity.

Where is the technical support level for Bitcoin?

$85,000-$90,000 is a key support zone, a breach could dip to $80,000, but currently, there is significant buying interest below $90,000. Momentum indicators are approaching oversold levels, but the downtrend may continue.