Ethereum Price Prediction: BTC ETF Outflow of 536 Million, $3800 Defense Battle Begins

Despite the net outflow of $536 million from the main Spot Bitcoin ETFs on October 16, marking one of the highest single-day net outflows since mid-2025, Ethereum is still trying to stabilize above $3,984. According to Wu Blockchain data, on that day, all 12 Bitcoin ETFs saw no inflows, while the Ethereum Spot ETF experienced an outflow of $56.88 million.

Largest ETF Outflow in History: $536 Million Withdrawal by Institutions

The main Spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $536 million on October 16, setting one of the highest single-day net outflow records since mid-2025. This sell-off marks a shift in institutional sentiment, briefly pulling liquidity from the BTC and ETH markets. In Ethereum price prediction analysis, the fund flow of Bitcoin ETFs often serves as a leading indicator.

According to data shared by Wu Blockchain, all 12 Bitcoin ETFs had no capital inflow that day. This collective zero inflow is extremely rare, indicating that institutional investors are consistently withdrawing from Bitcoin exposure. On the other hand, the Ethereum Spot ETF encountered a capital outflow of $56.88 million; however, BlackRock's ETHA fund did see some small net inflows.

The difference between the two highlights the varying interests people have in digital asset investments, as traders weigh the pros and cons of entering during the current volatility versus holding long-term and sticking through good and bad times. The massive outflow from Bitcoin ETFs may reflect institutional concerns about the macro environment, while the relatively smaller outflow from Ethereum ETFs combined with inflows from BlackRock indicates that some institutions may be shifting from BTC to ETH.

Market observers warn that if the outflow of funds from these ETFs continues, especially on a large scale, the liquidity of the cryptocurrency market could become tight. This would be bad news. On the other hand, ETH's ability to maintain above its key support level is a good sign, indicating that holders still have confidence in the token and have not yet felt panic.

3,930 USD Defense Line: Ethereum Price Prediction's Lifeline

(Source: Trading View)

Despite facing ETF-driven pressure, Ethereum has maintained its support level between $3,930 and $3,950, which has provided strong defense since early October. The price recently broke out of a symmetrical triangle, a consolidation pattern that often precedes directional trends. A candlestick closed above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, confirming the new bullish momentum.

The breakthrough K-line has also formed a bullish engulfing pattern, indicating that buying pressure is overcoming previous weakness. The bullish engulfing is a classic reversal pattern in technical analysis, characterized by a large bullish candle completely engulfing the body of the previous bearish candle. The appearance of this pattern often signifies a trend reversal from a downtrend or consolidation to an uptrend. In Ethereum price predictions, the bullish engulfing combined with a triangle breakout is a strong buy signal.

At the same time, the RSI indicator is at 68, indicating that the price is undergoing a healthy recovery and has not fallen into an overbought state, leaving room for further upward movement. An RSI above 70 is typically considered overbought, and the current reading of 68 suggests strong upward momentum but not yet overheated. This “strong but not crazy” state is the ideal upward configuration. A series of rising lows on the two-hour chart reinforces ETH's potential bullish structure, indicating that technical buyers are absorbing capital.

Why is $3,930 so critical? This price level is the intersection of multiple technical factors. First, it is the support level after the breakout of the symmetric triangle; technical analysis theory suggests that if the pullback after the breakout can hold, it will confirm the validity of the breakout. Second, this price point is close to the crossover area of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, where the support strength of the moving average system is relatively strong. Third, from the perspective of volume distribution, there has been a significant amount of historical trading around $3,930, forming a dense support area for the chips.

Target of $4,299: The Upside Path of Ethereum Price Prediction

If Ethereum can maintain above $3,930, the next significant resistance level will be around $4,093. From there, it may attempt to hit $4,299 again. If it breaks that level, it may retest $4,554 and complete a full measurement of the recent consolidation range.

This tiered resistance level distribution provides a clear roadmap for Ethereum price prediction. $4,093 is the first target, representing an increase of about 2.7% from the current price. $4,299 is the medium-term target, with an increase of about 7.9%. $4,554 is the measured target for the symmetrical triangle, calculated based on the height of the triangle, with an increase of about 14.3%.

Ethereum Price Prediction Key Levels:

Support: $3,930 / $3,713 / $3,510

Resistance: $4,093 / $4,299 / $4,554

Current Price: 3,984 USD

RSI: 68 (Healthy rise not overbought)

However, if it fails to hold, and if the market really starts to decline, ETH could eventually drop to $3,713 or even $3,510. $3,713 is a secondary support level, representing the low point of the previous consolidation platform. $3,510 is a deeper support level, and if it reaches that level, market sentiment could significantly worsen.

Trading Strategy: How to Position Under ETF Outflow Pressure

For anyone looking to profit quickly, going long above $3,950 and setting a stop loss at $3,710 seems like a pretty good choice—if the momentum continues, the upside target will be between $4,299 and $4,554. This trading setup offers a risk-reward ratio of about 1:3, which meets the standards of professional traders.

Looking ahead, as ETF funds continue to dwindle, whether Ether can hold its ground may determine the next steps for the cryptocurrency market. If $3,800 can hold steady, with the acceleration of capital rotations and the revival of market sentiment, ETH is expected to regain its leading position among altcoins. The key to Ethereum's price prediction lies in when ETF fund flows stabilize and whether the $3,930 support can withstand ongoing tests.

From a risk management perspective, investors should closely monitor the daily fund flow data of ETFs. If there are large outflows for several consecutive days, even if the technical indicators are bullish, caution should be taken when going long. Conversely, if the outflow decreases or turns into inflows, along with a technical breakout, it will be the strongest buy signal combination.