Will institutional buying bring Bitcoin to "Uptober"? CryptoQuant: Q4 target price $200,000

As 2025 approaches its end, data company CryptoQuant predicts that if the demand for buying from Whales and ETFs continues to rise, the price of Bitcoin may reach between $160,000 and $200,000 in the fourth quarter, igniting market optimism for "Uptober." However, VC partners still remind investors to plan cautiously, take profits in a timely manner, and avoid blindly chasing the price.

Spot demand explodes: Bitcoin reappears in the Q4 bull market prelude mode.

CryptoQuant's weekly report indicates that since July, the spot demand for Bitcoin has been rising at a rate of 62,000 BTC per month. This sustained buying pressure is a precursor to the price increases seen in previous Q4s, which was the case in 2020, 2021, and 2024.

Analysts point out that as long as the momentum of demand continues, the market has the foundation to welcome another price breakthrough.

Continuous influx of funds: Whale and ETF buying power ignites the rise.

In addition to retail demand, the behavior of Whales and ETFs also shows strong bullish signals.

CryptoQuant research director Julio Moreno pointed out that the annual accumulation rate of Whales has reached 331,000 BTC, significantly higher than the 255,000 BTC during the same period in 2024; while the ETF may replicate the massive buying seen in the fourth quarter of last year, when the quarterly growth rate exceeded 71%. These two major sources of funds are seen as key engines supporting the price of Bitcoin.

Dragonfly partner Omar also mentioned that a fund manager managing billions of dollars next to him is, at the request of clients, allocating the fund's dividends, coupons, and cash flow distributions to BTC and ETH, amounting to as much as 90 million dollars:

With the emergence of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, there is a quiet, passive, and continuous buying pressure. This will happen week after week, month after month. In the coming years, it will continue to drive capital flows and raise the prices of BTC and ETH.

Key price level breakout: Bull market signal has been lit up

Analysts believe that for Bitcoin to return to a bull market cycle, it must break through the "trader's on-chain realized price (" of 116,000 USD. Currently, BTC has risen to 118,000 USD, meeting the condition for this initiation, paving the way for a price surge to 160,000 to 200,000 USD.

At the same time, CryptoQuant's "Bitcoin Bull Score Index )Bull Score Index(" currently falls within the range of 40 to 50, similar to the pre-rise period of last year's bull market. Once the index breaks above 50, BTC is expected to replicate last year's trend from 70,000 to 100,000.

VC: Market sentiment is warming up, and "Uptober" will punish the bears.

Placeholder VC partner Chris Burniske observed that there was a significant sell-off in the market at the end of Q3, but the selling pressure clearly stopped as Q4 began. He hinted that "Uptober" may severely punish short sellers.

However, he also reminds investors not to blindly chase the price. He stated that he is a "patient and stable seller" who will gradually take profits at current and higher price levels, while still maintaining a large allocation to Bitcoin.

Trader Eugene warns: the market buying pressure is weak, BTC and ETH may drop to the levels of 100,000 and 3,400 USD.

Inventory of various consensus: Q4 2025 is not the end of the bull market

Previously, Standard Chartered Bank, Bitwise, Arthur Hayes, and the world's largest ETF guard Tom Lee also made optimistic predictions, believing that the fourth quarter is not the end of this bull market.

Whether the future market has sufficient liquidity and purchasing power, and whether the demand and inflow of Bitcoin can create price momentum, still needs to be verified over time.

Will institutional buying lead Bitcoin to an "Uptober"? CryptoQuant: Q4 target price $200,000 first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.