Bitcoin vs Gold: After gold reached a historic high, it faces a pullback, while the Bitcoin fear index is experiencing a big dump, presenting a good opportunity to buy the dip.

Spot gold (XAU/USD) has risen for the sixth consecutive week, reaching a historical high of 3791.26 USD. Technically, gold has far exceeded its 52-week moving average of 3067.26 USD, and the RSI indicator is in an overbought state, significantly increasing the risk of a pullback. This week's market focus will be on the US non-farm payroll report, as this data will directly affect the Fed's rate cut path: strong employment data may delay rate cut expectations, thereby putting pressure on gold prices. Meanwhile, after Bitcoin's price lost a significant level, the fear and greed index plummeted to 28, indicating that the crypto market may be approaching a rebound phase, providing tactical get on board opportunities for long-term investors.

Gold Technical Analysis: Looking towards $4000 after the breakthrough $3791 , but pullback risks are increasing.

Spot gold (XAU/USD) continues to perform strongly, successfully breaking through and refreshing the historical high of 3791.26 USD. Due to the lack of clear resistance above, traders are focusing on the psychological round numbers of 3800 USD, 3900 USD, and 4000 USD.

Technical bullish and bearish signals

1. Bullish Signal: As long as gold maintains the trend pattern of "higher highs" and "higher lows", the overall bullish trend will remain unchanged.

2. Pullback risk: RSI readings are overstretched, and the gold price is well above the 52-week MA of 3067.26 USD, indicating a clear risk of profit taking from a technical perspective.

3. Reversal Warning: Traders need to be cautious of signals that form a "closing price reversal top"—that is, after creating a higher high, the closing price is lower than the previous high, which usually indicates that bears are actively getting on board at historical highs.

In the short term, gold is still supported by buying interest, but bulls need to remain vigilant for any signs of weakness and be ready to tactically adjust positions.

Macro Focus: The U.S. Labor Market Dominates Fed Rate Cut Expectations

This week, the non-farm payroll report released on Friday will be the focus of the market, as it will directly determine whether the Fed will stick to its easing policy.

September employment data forecast and Fed interest rate cut game

1. Job Growth: Barclays expects job growth to rebound to 50,000 in September, up from 22,000 in August.

2. The Game of Interest Rate Cut Expectations: Although the CME FedWatch tool shows an 88% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, strong GDP, robust consumer spending, and lower initial jobless claims are continuously weakening these rate cut expectations.

3. Impact on Gold: If this week's labor data shows strong performance across the board, the Fed may pause its interest rate cuts, which could put downward pressure on gold prices.

Dollar Index Approaches Key Resistance Level: Discrepancies in Fed Internal Information

The US Dollar Index (DXY) closed at 98.182 last week, recording a rise for the second consecutive week, and is approaching a key technical resistance area.

The technical pressure points of USD are divided by policy signals.

1. Short-term resistance: DXY is testing the 50% pullback level at the 98.238 and 99.098 area. Once it breaks through 99.098, it will open up upward space towards 100.257.

2. Split Signals from the Fed: The signals within the Fed remain chaotic. Barkin believes the inflation risk is limited, while Bowman is open to the idea of rate cuts. Before there is consensus within the Fed, the US dollar index (DXY) and gold prices will mainly be influenced by economic data and short-term interest rate pricing.

Crypto Market Sentiment: Reverse Opportunities After Bitcoin Fear Index Big Dump

While the traditional market focuses on non-farm data, the crypto market is in a state of tension due to Bitcoin losing important price levels.

The Fear and Greed Index has plummeted to 28

This week, the price of Bitcoin started to fall from above 115,000 USD, briefly dropping below 110,000 USD, triggering a liquidation wave of over 1 billion USD.

1. Sentiment Reversal: The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index plummeted 16 points in one day, falling to 28, the lowest point since March of this year.

2. Long-term opportunities: Historically, the Fear and Greed Index is a contrarian indicator. Extreme fear levels often occur before a significant rebound in the market, providing savvy long-term investors with the opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin and Ethereum and other assets at lower prices.

3. Current Key: The most important thing for Bitcoin is to regain a stable position above 110,000 USD. As of the time of writing this article, Bitcoin is trading at 109,220 USD.

Conclusion

Gold reached a historical high of 3791.26 USD, entering a high-risk critical point under the combined influence of technical and macro factors. This week’s non-farm payroll data will be key in determining gold’s short-term trend. Meanwhile, the extreme fear in the Bitcoin market has released, following the trend of inverse indicators, providing tactical bottom-fishing opportunities for long-term investors, indicating that the crypto market may be brewing a new round of healthy growth cycle. Investors should closely monitor macro data from traditional markets and key price support in the crypto market to maintain tactical flexibility.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions cautiously.