XRP Today News: Expectations of ETF approval coexist with risks from the Fed, can long positions hold the 2.7 USD support level?

In the market fluctuation at the end of September, [XRP] faced strong selling pressure. Despite the growing expectations for the XRP Spot ETF, Bitcoin ( BTC ) fell below the critical support level of 110,000 USD, becoming the dominant force in the market. With 23 billion USD of BTC and ETH Options soon to expire, coupled with the complex effects of U.S. macroeconomic data and Fed policy expectations, investors are reassessing market risks. In the coming weeks, the approval results of the XRP Spot ETF, whether BlackRock launches the iShares XRP Trust, and Ripple's regulatory and ecological progress will be core variables determining whether XRP can break through the critical threshold of 3 USD.

Bitcoin Options Expiry Pressure Affects XRP

Bitcoin fell nearly 5% this week, dropping below the $110,000 support level. On September 26, approximately $23 billion worth of BTC and ETH Options are set to expire, raising concerns in the market. The "Max Pain Theory" in the options market shows that option sellers and large holders often manipulate market prices to allow a large number of options to expire worthless, thereby maximizing their own profits.

This trading strategy is quite common in the cryptocurrency market. For example, during the major Options expiration points in early 2024 and 2025, the price of Bitcoin frequently approached the "maximum pain" level. Due to BTC's market capitalization and market dominance, any sharp fluctuations will spill over to major crypto assets like XRP, resulting in suppressed short-term declines or rebounds.

Macroeconomics and Fed Policy Expectations

In this quarter, the employment and GDP data in the U.S. remained strong, weakening the market's expectations for multiple rate cuts by the Fed this year. As investors took profits ahead of the release of the U.S. Personal Income and Outlays report on September 26, market sentiment grew increasingly cautious.

If inflation data exceeds expectations (especially the core PCE price index), it will further dampen market expectations for policy easing and increase the downward pressure on risk assets. Historical experience shows that XRP is highly sensitive to U.S. economic data and the Fed's forward guidance. For example, on August 29, 2024, after U.S. economic data exceeded expectations, XRP fell by more than 5% that day. This means that macro data in the coming days will still be an important variable that XRP investors must pay attention to.

XRP Spot ETF: Potential Institutional Benefits

Despite the pressure on XRP at the end of September, potential good news is accumulating, especially with the anticipation of the XRP Spot ETF launch. The influx of institutional funds could become a significant driving force for the future price increase of XRP.

Robbie Mitchnick, the head of digital assets at BlackRock, emphasized in a conversation with Nate Geraci, president of NovaDius Wealth Management, that the launch of new products needs to comprehensively consider investor demand, market liquidity, market capitalization size, and clarity of investment logic. As the third largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, XRP has certain advantages in these indicators. Considering that the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) have been successful, if an iShares XRP Trust is launched in the future, it could greatly enhance the institutional demand for XRP in the market.

Divergent Views of ETF Analysts

However, market analysts are not entirely optimistic. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas pointed out that BlackRock's latest application for the Bitcoin Premium Income ETF shows that the company is currently more inclined to build a product matrix around BTC and ETH, rather than expanding into other cryptocurrencies. This means that at least in the short term, the probability of iShares XRP Trust is lower.

However, there are currently 7 XRP Spot ETF applications waiting for SEC approval, with the final ruling dates concentrated between October 18 and November 14. If market demand is strong and regulatory signals improve, the approval of XRP Spot ETF may still become an unexpected delight.

Technical Analysis: XRP Faces Key Price Level

(Source: TradingView)

On September 25, XRP fell by 6.22%, closing at $2.7453, giving back a 3.57% gain from the previous day. This trend indicates that XRP is under significant pressure below the $2.8 resistance level, with a bearish market sentiment in the short term.

Key support level: 2.7 USD and 2.5 USD

Main resistance levels: $2.8, $3, $3.2, $3.335, and historical high of $3.66

In the short term, the price of XRP will be driven by the following events:

· US inflation and economic data performance

· XRP Spot ETF approval progress

· Has BlackRock submitted the application for iShares XRP Trust?

· Will blue-chip companies include XRP in their corporate financial reserves?

· Progress of Ripple's banking license application and market structure bill

· Does SWIFT maintain its dominant position in the cross-border payment field, or is it being diverted by Ripple technology?

Comparison of Bearish and Bullish Scenarios

In a bearish scenario: If U.S. inflation exceeds expectations, ETF product inflows are weak, the SEC rejects related applications, or Ripple's banking license is obstructed, XRP may fall below $2.7 and even test the $2.5 support level.

In a bullish scenario: If inflation in the United States slows down, ETF products see strong inflows, the SEC approves the XRP Spot ETF, Ripple obtains a banking license and further captures SWIFT market share, XRP is expected to break through 2.8 dollars, and then challenge 3 dollars. If it continues to hold above 3 dollars, it may further aim for above 3.2 dollars.

Ripple Ecosystem and Long-term Value Support

In addition to the ETF narrative, Ripple is actively applying for a banking license in the United States. If this progress is successful, it will greatly enhance the recognition of XRP at the compliance and institutional level. At the same time, the U.S. Congress's market structure bill will also be a key factor in determining XRP's future compliance status.

In addition, the application of Ripple technology in cross-border payment and settlement systems is continuously expanding. If SWIFT gradually loses market share, the long-term value of Ripple and XRP will be further highlighted. Some institutional investors are also discussing using XRP as part of corporate financial reserves. If this trend materializes, it will provide additional demand support for XRP.

Conclusion

XRP is currently at a critical turning point, with the expiration of Bitcoin and Ethereum options, the direction of Fed policy, and U.S. macroeconomic data expected to determine price trends in the short term. However, in the medium to long term, the progress of XRP Spot ETF, the influx of institutional funds, and Ripple's ecosystem expansion and compliance advancements will be the core driving factors determining whether XRP can break through the $3 mark and even return to historic highs.

For cryptocurrency investors, the strategy in the fourth quarter should focus on observing the progress of ETF approvals and macroeconomic policy signals, while also taking into account the regulatory dynamics of Ripple, patiently awaiting the emergence of a turning point in market sentiment.