Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

My watchlist is as beautiful as a painting; Guilin🐴 has always been a preemptive call. At the end of July, when I bought the dip in storage, that was what I was thinking, and that’s exactly what I’m doing now. As for whether it ultimately follows my line of thinking, it no longer matters, right? If it follows my line of thinking, I make more money; if it doesn’t, I don’t lose money. You get it, right?

1. The crypto market is indeed very resilient, and I, $CRCL , am even more resilient. I believe this resilience is the result of multiple factors: 1. The crypto market has been in a bear market longer than any other market. Theoretically, this could be the transition from a bear market to a bull market (the largest-scale rebound); 2. This rally has not risen very much. Since the increase has been limited, the room for a pullback is also limited (the cost basis line of the major players’ holdings). 3. Rotation between capital sectors, Trump’s charting, and so on......

Recently, the market has felt like it lacks a clear direction, but this week will likely bring news that directly drives the market in one direction. From Tuesday through Friday, the schedule is packed with macroeconomic data and regulatory events. The Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting begins on Tuesday; U.S. August retail sales data will be released on Wednesday, while the CLARITY Act reaches a new procedural milestone; the interest rate decision and economic projections will be officially released on Thursday;

It took me only one day to understand inscriptions, a week to understand DeFi, and a month to understand the prototype of TapeOut (I still don’t know how to use canvas to assemble mining machines). More importantly, TapeOut is not yet complete and is still evolving. My teacher was really not trying to hurt me when they told me to read more books back then. The overall level of education in the crypto industry is relatively low compared with the Web2 financial sector. Without a thirst for knowledge (and money), you really will be eliminated.😆😆

SOL at $101—do you dare add to your position?
Look at the surface first: The macro nuclear bomb is counting down, yet SOL has not collapsed.
At the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, the probability of a 25bp rate hike has soared to 80-90%. Core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, above expectations; PPI was hot, oil prices remained high, and Chair Warsh turned hawkish. BTC fell from higher levels to 77,800-78,400, and the entire market is trembling.
In the face of the rate-hike nuclear bomb, SOL did not kneel; instead, it held above 100.
First: The rate hike is an open secret, but SOL is “quietly accumulating” on-chain.
The number of holders of tokenized stocks on Solana has surpassed 800k, with trading volume hitting a record. Assets such as DraftKings saw rapid growth in daily volume, and the network has already taken the lead in tokenized assets.
The Transaction v1 upgrade raised the maximum transaction size to 4096 bytes, while the second phase of rent relief went live, releasing more SOL. Today’s Washington x Wall Street Solana Summit focuses on regulation and institutional adoption. Prediction market World has launched, while meme coin and DEX trading volumes remain high. ETFs continue to see inflows.
Second: Solana is becoming an “on-chain Nasdaq.”
DeFi TVL is approximately $5.8-9 billion, stablecoin supply is $14-16 billion, and RWA stands at $2.4-4 billion and is growing rapidly. Daily active addresses exceed 2 million, daily DEX trading volume is $1.5-3 billion, and application-layer revenue and fees lead most chains. The staking ratio is approximately 70%, tightening the circulating supply. Institutional holdings are increasing, Firedancer/Alpenglow development is progressing, and the inflation reduction proposal has passed.
Third: The technical triangle is converging toward its endpoint, with 100 as the line in the sand.
The daily chart rebounded from the June-July lows, surged to 110 at the end of August before meeting resistance and pulling back, and is currently consolidating above 100. The 4-hour chart shows a symmetrical triangle, with the upper boundary around 103 and the lower boundary at 100. Volatility is narrowing as the market awaits a directional move.
Price is trading above the shorter-period EMAs, while the 200-day moving average is well below the current price, in the 83-93 range. The medium-term structure remains bullish. Holding 100 means bullish consolidation; breaking below it would accelerate the bottoming process. This is the decision zone now.
The bull-bear battle—judge for yourself
On one side (bearish):
90% probability of an FOMC rate hike, tightening liquidity for risk assets
BTC has pulled back from its highs, and SOL, as a high-beta asset, is more sensitive
The daily chart has yet to break above 105, and the triangle’s direction has not been confirmed
On the other side (bullish):
RWA/tokenized stocks are surging, with 800k holders and record trading volume
Resilient ecosystem fundamentals, 70% staking, and increasing institutional holdings
100 has held multiple times; it refuses to fall
Continued ETF inflows and the Summit as a catalyst
Support: 100 (psychological + short-term) → 97.7-98 (structural support; below that, watch 94-95) → 92-83 (longer-term moving-average zone)
Resistance: 102.5-104 (dense trading volume + trendline) → 105-107 → 110 (August high; only a breakout opens the way to 120+)
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
If a pullback to 100-98 stabilizes on the candlestick chart, cautiously go long with a small position, stop-loss below 97, and targets at 104-107. If a rebound to 104-105 meets resistance or forms a long upper shadow, cautiously short with a small position, stop-loss at 106-107, and targets at 100-97. A high-volume daily close above 105 supports chasing longs; a high-volume break below 97 favors shorts toward 94.
Medium to long term:
The ecosystem’s fundamentals support accumulating spot or using dollar-cost averaging on dips, with a target zone of 120-147 (requiring a confirmed breakout above 110).
A rate hike is not a reason to kill SOL; it is a reason for you to sell at a loss.
SOL at $100 and SOL at $200 are the same Solana.
Do not throw away your chips in macro panic, and do not get off the train before the on-chain breakout.
After the FOMC decision, do you dare add to your position? #每周来晒 #美联储加息会议 #Gate广场中秋团圆局 $BTC $ETH $SOL

The Magnificent Seven About to See a Regime Change?
1. Nvidia $NVDA
The bullish trend is still intact. There are two possible scenarios now: either it dips below around 190 and then consolidates to build momentum, like a bull flag before moving higher; or it has already topped and will take another hit in a Wave 2, with the worst case reaching 138, where you can buy near the weekly 200-day moving average. It is still far from the moving average for now, so if you want to add, keep the position small. 178 and 138 are the real levels for adding. Keep holding the core position and assume it is still in a bull market for now.
2. Tesla $TSLA
The Cybertruck news is good, but the price action is still choppy. Either it makes another WXY move and drops into the gray area between 294 and 196, where you can buy near the weekly 200-day moving average; or the Wave 2 bottom is already in, in which case it will move steadily higher from here. The initial target is 614. Either way, add if it falls into the bottom range. This strategy has worked for many months, and buying Tesla at low levels has basically been profitable.
3. Google $GOOGL
The primary scenario is still a WXY move downward. In particular, once the 312 pivot breaks, 289 to 230 will be the golden accumulation zone. If the broader market remains strong and 312 holds, it could also form a triangle consolidation and then surge directly to 478. The weekly trend remains very bullish for this long-term holding. If it weakens, gradually accumulate between 230 and 289.
4. Apple $AAPL
The issue is that it is too far above the moving average and is in a premium zone. For now, you can open at most a 1/5 position to test the waters, but do not go all in. Add more after it pulls back closer to the moving average. The long-term outlook is still bullish, but the principle remains unchanged: Apple should also be bought at a cheap price.
5. Meta $META
The primary path is another Wave 2 decline to 416 to 245, but this is a low-probability scenario. I favor the view that the Wave 2 low is already in. Holding above 522 would allow it to surge toward 696, with 969 as a more distant target. If the broader market truly turns weak, have your ammunition ready around 416, which would be an excellent zone for adding.
6. Amazon $AMZN
I added at each of the lows around 179, 200, and 231, and the gains have been substantial. Now it will either make a new Wave 1 high or the high is already in and it will move down in a Wave 2. The next buying level is 239. If it weakens further, you can buy down to 205 or even 176. It is currently near the moving average, so it is fairly valued to slightly expensive. Continue holding the position and add on a pullback.
7. Microsoft $MSFT
There is some short-term divergence, but the structure still looks fine. Either the Wave 2 bottom is already in and the dotted-line path takes it directly to a new all-time high at 663, or it will take another hit. It has not broken above the previous high, so it could still form a lower high before moving down. The safest approach is to buy near the weekly 200-day moving average. If it really falls to 265, that would be an even better opportunity. Do not get too carried away before it breaks above the previous high.
Overall, the Magnificent Seven are still bullish, but most are currently far above their moving averages. Do not chase the highs or go all in!

Would you buy UNI at $6.35?
First, on the surface: a pullback after a sharp rally, with the moving averages still bullish.
UNI rose 93% over the past month, from $3.2 to $7.45. It has pulled back 13% over the past week, dropping to around $6.1, and has now rebounded to $6.35. The daily price remains above all EMAs, with the 200-day EMA at $4.26, well below. TradingView indicators are neutral, with bulls and bears temporarily even as the market waits for direction.
First: the Fee Switch has given UNI a new soul, but the bullish news was already priced in at $7.
The proposal was implemented at the end of 2025, and protocol fees began being used to buy back and burn UNI. Hayden Adams publicly stated that the annualized burn rate exceeds $250 million.
UNI has changed from a “pure governance token” into a “deflationary asset tied to trading volume.”
But the problem is that the move to $7.45 had already priced in the bullish news. The market is now betting on one thing—whether trading volume will drop after the Robinhood Chain gas subsidy expires at the end of September. If it drops, the burn will slow and the narrative will cool off.
Second: institutions are buying, while retail traders who chased at $7.45 are trapped.
Arthur Hayes bought 244,000 UNI via OTC. Bitwise has filed for a UNI spot ETF. Standard Chartered has set targets of $6.50 by the end of 2026 and $100 by 2030.
Sounds impressive? But look at the chart—UNI plunged from $7.45 to $6.1.
It is the same UNI: buyers rushed in at $7.45, but they do not dare buy it at $6.35. What changed is not UNI, but your emotions.
Third: technical analysis tells you that $6.10 is the line between life and death.
On the higher time frame: the bottom formed at $2.34-$2.50, the long-term descending trendline was broken, and the monthly chart turned bullish. The main rally from late August to early September reached $7.45, extending into overbought territory.
Currently: the pullback from $7.45 to $6.10-$6.35 is a consolidation retracement after the main rally. The low on September 13 was $6.11, and today it rebounded to $6.3.
Holding $6.10 means a strong pullback. A break below $5.82 that fails to recover would mark the end of the main rally and a move into the $4.6-$5.2 value zone.
Support: $6.10-$6.17 (first level) → $5.82-$5.87 (key daily support) → $5.50 → $5.00-$5.22
Resistance: $6.45-$6.54 → $6.82 → $7.17-$7.45
Watch the bull-bear battle yourself
On one side (bullish):
The Fee Switch burns $250 million worth of UNI annually, making the deflationary narrative real
DEX trading dominance, with v4+Hooks continuing to capture market share
Arthur Hayes buying, and Bitwise filing for a UNI ETF
The weekly chart remains in an ascending channel, with the 200-day EMA far below at $4.26
On the other side (bearish):
Some of the bullish news was priced in at $7.45, requiring short-term digestion
The Robinhood Chain subsidy may expire at the end of September, creating the risk of a decline in trading volume
The probability of an FOMC rate hike this week is 86%; high-beta altcoins will take the first hit
If BTC breaks $75,000, UNI may be the first to fall to $5.8
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Above $6.35, first watch $6.54; the risk-reward ratio is average, and FOMC is also approaching. If it rallies to $6.52-$6.60 but fails to break through on increased volume, cautiously try a short position, with a stop-loss at $6.72 and targets at $6.17/$5.90. If it drops to $6.10-$6.17 and forms a long lower wick, then a 4H candle closes back above $6.20, enter a long position, with a stop-loss at $5.95 and targets at $6.45-$6.54.
Swing traders:
Bullish bias, but only buy pullbacks. The first choice is to buy in batches at $5.80-$6.00, with the core position at $5.82-$5.90. Set a stop-loss if the daily candle closes below $5.50. Target 1: reduce the position at $6.80-$7.20; Target 2: $7.80-$8.20. Only chase a breakout if the daily candle closes above $6.55 on increased volume; set the stop-loss below $6.30, with targets at $7.20/$7.45.
Mid-term believers:
As long as the weekly chart does not break below the major demand zone at $4.60-$5.00, the mid-term bullish thesis remains intact. Use spot or extremely low leverage; use perpetuals only for swing trades, and do not turn a mid-term thesis into a highly leveraged bag-holding position.
Strong consolidation: hold $6.10, reclaim $6.45, take a small long position, target $6.8-$7.2
Healthy pullback: find support at $5.82-$6.00 and build the main long position
Structural breakdown: if the daily candle closes below $5.50, exit long positions and wait for $5.0-$5.2
Macro black swan: if BTC quickly breaks below $75,000, reduce the UNI position first and do not cling to the narrative
You chased at $7.45, but you do not dare buy at $6.35—what changed is not UNI, but your emotions.
Smart money is waiting for a second confirmation at $5.8, while retail traders are using high leverage at $6.35 to prove they are bullish.
UNI has already changed from “a governance token with no cash flow” into “an asset with burns, trading volume, and RWA potential.” This is a fundamental transformation. But $6.35 is halfway up after a large monthly candle, and it also coincides with rate-hike week.
It is not that UNI is weak; it is that your entry price is wrong.
At $6.35, do you dare chase? Before FOMC, are you betting hawkish or dovish? #每周来晒 #美联储加息会议 #Gate广场中秋团圆局 $BTC $ETH $UNI

I don’t think the first question should be how many points you can earn. Before putting money in, first get a few basic questions straight: Where exactly does the yield come from? Is it Treasury interest, real business revenue, or is it being propped up by issuing tokens? Are the underlying assets held by an independent custodian? Do the books reconcile? When you really want to get your money back, can you redeem at any time, or do you have to queue for several days? APY

After tracking and researching TapeOut for the past month, I have a lot I want to say, but a few words cannot fully express it. However, Blonskr’s tweet marks a new milestone, and this is a truly important moment worth recording! We should be witnessing the arrival of a new era for ETH! (Some people say that KOLs are paid to post TapeOut advertisements, but based on my observations, I and all the KOLs I have seen are speaking and sharing for the sake of their own positions.)

The Fed actually does not want to raise rates, but it does want a strong dollar. So this time, it will most likely continue with hawkish rhetoric and rate hikes by mouth without taking actual action, using expectation management to achieve the effect of a rate hike without increasing the debt burden—the tactic of adding water when there is too much flour and adding flour when there is too much water.
As for the latest progress on the CLARITY Act, Republicans recently submitted a watered-down version of the bill and made quite a few concessions, which Trump also agreed to. Looking at it this way, the odds of its passage seem considerably higher. Let’s wait for tomorrow’s result.

PONS at $0.56—are you brave enough to buy the dip?
Look at the surface first: from an ATH of 0.97 down to 0.56, a 42% retracement, but perpetuals trading remains active, with people in the group shouting, “30% has been burned—buy with your eyes closed.” The price is ranging between 0.5 and 0.58, volume is shrinking, and both bulls and bears are waiting for a signal. That signal isn’t the FOMC—it’s September 29.
First: PONS’s surge was fueled by Robinhood offering free gas.
Pons is a token launchpad on Robinhood Chain, with a model identical to Pump fun: launch a token with one click, then graduate to Uniswap. On-chain trading volume exploded over the past two months, with daily fees surging to $6 million and the PONS buyback-and-burn flywheel spinning rapidly.
Robinhood Wallet users enjoyed gas subsidies over the past two months, with launching, trading, buying, and selling all completely free. Human nature is like this: when something costs nothing, even garbage can be hyped into gold.
Second: The burn flywheel is real, but once the crutch is removed, the flywheel becomes scrap metal.
PONS’s economic model is not bad: a 1% trading fee, with creators receiving 70% and the protocol taking 30%; 80% of the protocol’s share is automatically used for buybacks and burns. About 30% has been burned; 690 million are in circulation, with a maximum supply of 1 billion.
The fuel powering this flywheel is trading volume on Robinhood Chain. And the crutch supporting that trading volume is gas subsidies.
Once the subsidies expire, daily active users, on-chain fees, and the number of newly launched tokens will likely fall off a cliff.
Third: Technical analysis tells you that 0.62 is the line between life and death, while 0.50 is a fig leaf.
The daily chart’s move down from 0.97 is a textbook breakdown of a parabola. 0.6258 was once a key support level, but after breaking below it on the 4H chart, it became strong resistance. The current price of 0.56 sits in the upper-middle part of the range. Above, 0.62-0.65 is former support turned resistance; below, 0.50 is the psychological level, followed by the major Fibonacci retracement zone at 0.38-0.40.
Volume has expanded during the decline, and profit-taking and leveraged liquidations have not yet been fully cleared out.
The bull-bear showdown—judge for yourself
On one side (bullish):
Uniswap Labs bought in for long-term alignment, with V2 graduate tokens gaining direct access to Uniswap V4
30% has been burned, and the buyback-and-burn mechanism continues
A 25% creator-fee match on September 18 provides short-term incentives
Daily fees reached $6 million at the peak, indicating genuine usage
On the other side (bearish):
Gas subsidies expire on September 29, and on-chain data could fall off a cliff
A competitive narrative is emerging, with other launchpads seeking a share
BTC is ranging around $77k, the probability of an FOMC rate hike is high, and altcoin rotation is weakening
With a market cap of $380-400 million and only two months since launch, the valuation has already priced in the subsidy bonus
Resistance above: 0.62-0.65 (former support turned resistance) → 0.75 → 0.97
Support below: 0.50 (psychological level) → 0.38-0.40 (major retracement)
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
If a rebound to 0.60-0.65 stalls, forms long upper wicks, and produces a high-volume bearish candle, try a small short position, with a stop-loss at 0.68-0.70 and targets at 0.50, then 0.40-0.38. The short thesis becomes stronger as the subsidy expiration approaches.
Swing traders:
Wait for a clear bottom around 0.50, then try a small long position, with a stop-loss at 0.47 and targets at 0.62-0.72.
Long-term believers:
Wait 1-2 weeks after the subsidies expire on September 29 and monitor daily active users, fees, and the number of newly launched tokens. If fees are cut in half but the price has not fully fallen, that will be the point to watch for a medium-term position.
From 0.003 to 0.97, it rose 300-fold; from 0.97 to 0.56, it took only 20 days. You think it’s a correction, but in reality, it’s debt repayment.
Robinhood raised PONS on free gas; when it is weaned off on September 29, do you think it will cry?
In a casino, the house’s rake depends on popularity. Once the subsidies stop, the popularity disappears, and the rake machine sits idle.
PONS at 0.56 is the same thing as PONS at 0.97. What changed is not the value, but your emotions and the subsidies.
After the subsidies expire on September 29, do you think it will fall to 0.50, 0.38, or go straight to zero?
‍#每周来晒 #美联储加息会议 #Gate广场中秋团圆局 $BTC $ETH $PONS

Even with $pons in a pullback and the Rb chain entering a temporary cooling-off period, $Pons ’s daily fee revenue still exceeds $1M. If you firmly believe the bull market is still ongoing and that this is merely a pullback, this is the best opportunity to get in on the most certain narrative of this cycle. The previous surge in $pons was driven by the Rb chain’s well-pump-like growth, with optimistic future expectations having already pushed $pons higher. This pullback is due to

🚨OMG, there’s been a stabbing in Guangzhou University Town!
Do not go to gogo right now.
Basically the entire University Town has been sealed off, with armed police guarding the school entrances.
I wonder whether the person on the run has been caught yet?

Driving my sister’s 2022 Li Auto L9, I can still upgrade to 8.6, and the experience feels 90% like my Li Auto L8 livis. There’s a four-year gap between 2022 and 2026—the Li Auto of that time was four years ahead in terms of version.
But Li Auto’s advantages have basically all been learned by Seres. Seres is an excellent student: it not only learned from Li Auto but surpassed it—more luxurious and with better intelligent driving. Huawei really is impressive.

$0.035 CVC—are you chasing it?
Look at the surface first: an old coin comes back to life, and the whole market is shouting, “CVC is about to fly.”
Today, CVC ignited directly from 0.022-0.023, reaching an intraday high of 0.046-0.060, with a 24-hour gain of 30%-50%+ and trading volume hitting $200 million-$250 million. Its market cap is only $32 million-$36 million, while its turnover is 6-7 times its market cap. And then? It pulled back after surging and is now around 0.035. A typical low-cap speculative pulse. Capital comes in heavily, pushes it up, and then takes profits.
First point: there is no official catalyst—this is purely capital rotation.
Civic had no major official announcement today, no partnership going live, and no fundamental transformation.
There is only one reason for the rise: liquidity suddenly concentrated as capital rotated into established Ethereum utility tokens. Other familiar names such as LSK and STEEM were also lifted together.
Second point: a veteran project from 2017, with a story but no token value capture.
Civic is a veteran project from 2017, with all 1B tokens in circulation and a market cap of only $32 million-$36 million—small among small caps. Its core business covers decentralized identity (DID), Web3 login/authentication, solving the pain point of repeated KYC, and expanding into DeFi on-ramps, anti-bot protection for games, and RWA compliance.
It has SOC 2 certification and Nexus workflow automation, which sounds fairly solid.
But the token itself lacks a strong value-capture mechanism. It is more of an ecosystem incentive and medium of exchange, rather than a hard asset where “the protocol generates revenue and directly buys back and burns tokens.”
Third point: token holdings are highly concentrated and turnover is explosive—this is the market makers’ game.
The top ten addresses hold approximately 77%, while a single address holds approximately 44%.
The tokens are in other people’s hands, the candlesticks are in other people’s hands, and your stop-loss is also in other people’s hands.
Turnover was 6-7 times today, with enormous trading volume. Many people think “high volume means accumulation,” but for low-cap coins, enormous volume is more often capital moving in and out than sustained position building. Once volume shrinks, it becomes a pullback into an “air pocket”—when buying support retreats, the price goes into free fall.
The bulls and bears face off—you decide
On one side:
Capital is rotating into established ETH utility coins, and CVC has the DID narrative
The product has shifted to the Civic Auth SDK, covering EVM+Solana
Its market cap is small, the cost of pushing it up is low, and it rises quickly when sentiment arrives
On the other side:
No major official catalyst, purely capital-driven
The top ten holdings account for 77%, with a single address holding 44%; market makers control the price
Turnover is 6-7 times, and the capital entering today may leave tomorrow
A tight macro environment, with the Federal Reserve + U.S. Treasuries + ETF outflows creating pressure
Resistance above: 0.040-0.042 → 0.045-0.050
Support below: 0.030-0.028 → 0.025 (strong support)
Trading strategy
Short term:
If it retests 0.030-0.028 and shows signs of bottoming on the 1-hour chart (a high-volume bullish candle or a long lower wick), you can cautiously try a long position, targeting 0.038-0.042, with a stop-loss below 0.026. If it fails to hold 0.028 and falls on high volume, the bias is bearish, with a target of 0.025 or even lower, and a stop-loss above 0.033.
Medium term:
Wait for the macro outcome (after the Federal Reserve decision) before reassessing. If BTC stabilizes and CVC sees renewed high-volume buying above 0.028, it can be considered a continuation of the rebound; otherwise, treat it as a return to its original range after a single pulse. For the medium term, it is more suitable to wait for a pullback to the 0.025-0.028 area before reassessing, rather than taking a heavy position now.
CVC rose 50% today—not because it changed, but because capital had nowhere else to go.
You are chasing the gain, while the whales want your principal.
At 0.035, do you dare chase it?#传Anthropic选择纳斯达克IPO #Gate24小时合约持仓量超114.79亿美元 #Gate广场中秋团圆局 $BTC $ETH $CVC

Would you buy ETH at $2,515?
Look at the surface first: ranging with a bullish bias, but still down 16% year to date.
It has risen 31-34% over the past month, moved above the 20/50/200-day moving averages, and has an RSI of 58-61, not overbought. It rebounded 1.5% today, bouncing from 2460 back to 2515. Short-term bullish alignment is in place, the 4-hour EMA50 support is holding, but the direction is not yet clear—wait for the FOMC to reveal its hand.
First: ETF capital is rotating, with BTC seeing outflows and ETH seeing inflows.
On September 11, spot ETH ETFs recorded net inflows of $216.4 million, with BlackRock ETHA alone contributing $149 million. During the same period, BTC ETFs saw net outflows.
Institutions are moving from Bitcoin into Ethereum. ETH’s staking ratio is 34%, the exit queue is close to zero, and the circulating supply continues to tighten. When institutional capital in BTC starts rotating, ETH’s catch-up rally may only just be beginning.
Second: The FOMC is a double-edged sword, but the market has already priced it in ahead of time.
At the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, the market is pricing in a 79-90% probability of a 25bp rate hike. August CPI rose 3.4% year over year, and core inflation remains sticky.
The key is not whether rates are raised, but the dot plot. If it shows a “one-off rate hike” rather than the start of a new cycle, the bad news will be fully priced in and risk assets could take off immediately. If it hints at further hikes, ETH could face short-term pressure—but ETH has already pulled back from 2660 to 2460, pricing this in ahead of time.
Third: Technically, it is time to choose a side.
On September 11, a long bullish candle pushed the price up to 2660, followed by a drop to 2460, and then a rebound today. Is this a shakeout or distribution? Watch two levels:
2550: A breakout with rising volume would restore short-term bullish momentum, with a target of 2660-2700.
2460: A breakdown would trigger a retest of 2400 or even lower.
The daily RSI is 58-61, leaving room for further upside, but the MACD histogram is showing signs of divergence.
A breakout above 2550 would confirm the direction; a breakdown below 2460 would mean a second bottom test.
Bulls vs. bears—judge for yourself
On one side:
ETH ETFs have seen inflows for multiple consecutive days while BTC sees outflows, indicating institutional rotation
Staking at 34%, with the exit queue near zero and supply tightening
Above all moving averages, with RSI not overbought
The Clarity Act Senate vote on September 15, a potential positive catalyst
Stablecoins, RWA, and DeFi TVL still leading
On the other side:
FOMC uncertainty, with a high probability of a rate hike
Still down 16% year to date and far from the ATH of 4950
L2s diverting fees, with value capture under question
2550 has rejected price three times, and selling pressure remains
If BTC falls, ETH will follow
Resistance above: 2550 → 2580 → 2660-2670 → 2700-2800
Support below: 2460-2480 (strong support) → 2430-2440 → 2400
Trading strategy
For short-term traders:
Wait for a pullback to 2480-2500 to stabilize, then look for a lower wick or a 4H reversal candle before cautiously going long, with a stop-loss at 2460 and a target of 2550-2580. Only chase after a high-volume, sustained break above 2550, targeting 2660. If the rebound reaches 2540-2550 and meets resistance with no follow-through, consider a small short position, with a stop-loss at 2580 and a target of 2480.
For swing traders:
Wait for the FOMC decision and the Clarity vote result, then enter on the right side after the daily close breaks above 2550, targeting 2700-2800. Exit unconditionally if 2460 breaks.
For long-term believers:
Blindly dollar-cost average below 2400. Tightening staking supply + accelerated institutional adoption + structural ETF buying could put the target at 3000-3500 by the end of 2026. But don’t go all in; keep some funds to add after the FOMC.
ETH now looks like Bitcoin in 2020—
Everyone is waiting for the FOMC, while institutions are already quietly buying. ETF capital flowing from BTC to ETH is not a coincidence.
The day 2550 breaks, you will realize:
It’s not that ETH is incapable—it’s that you got scared out before the event again.
After the FOMC, would you dare to get on board at 2515?#传Anthropic选择纳斯达克IPO #Gate24小时合约持仓量超114.79亿美元 #Gate广场中秋团圆局 $BTC $ETH $SOL

At a glance, one clearly looks like a bullish continuation pattern and the other like a bearish continuation pattern; it’s pretty obvious. Yesterday afternoon, the crypto market and hardware sector plunged together. Today, crypto has recovered, but hardware hasn’t. It’s a good thing—can only say thanks to the market 🫶

Would you dare to make a move at BTC $77,800?
Look at the surface first: negative catalysts are bombarding the market, but the price isn't collapsing.
After pulling back from the 80k high over the past week, BTC is still up 20%+ over the past month. The market is trapped in a rectangular range between 76,300 and 81,300, unable to move either higher or lower. Everyone is shouting that “rate hikes will cause a crash,” but BTC simply refuses to break below 76,000. Don't rush—wait for the FOMC signal.
First point: There is an 85% probability of a rate hike, but the market may have already finished pricing in the drop.
At this week's FOMC meeting, the market is pricing in an 85-86% probability of a 25bp rate hike. Sounds scary? But look at the chart—BTC has already fallen from 80k to 76k, reacting in advance.
What does it mean for bad news to be fully priced in? This is it. Panic often comes before a rate hike, followed by a rebound after it is implemented. In 2022, BTC rose after initially falling every time rates were raised.
Second point: ETF outflows totaled $460 million, but long-term holders remain unmoved.
From September 8-11, spot ETFs saw net outflows of $462.7 million, ending three weeks of inflows. But look on-chain—long-term holders haven't fled, and heavy accumulation occurred in the $62,000-$65,000 region.
Short-term holders are selling into the $77,000-$80,000 range, while long-term holders are providing support below. BTC reserves on exchanges remain low, and the post-halving supply scarcity thesis remains unchanged.
Third point: The technical picture is range-bound, making this both a meat grinder and an opportunity.
The range is 76,300-81,300, with the current price of 77,800 in the lower-middle section. The daily candle is bullish but volume is average, indicating an oversold recovery rather than a strong breakout.
Range-bound trading is a meat grinder—those who chase rallies and sell panics get slapped from both sides. Wait for the FOMC to conclude and for a high-volume breakout.
The battle between bulls and bears—judge for yourself
On one side:
Rate hike expectations are partly priced in, and implementation could trigger a rebound
Long-term holders have not sold, and supply remains scarce after the halving
Strong support at 76,000-76,400, the lower boundary of the range
Fear & Greed at 57, not yet extreme; leverage has not blown up
On the other side:
An 85% probability of a rate hike, with clear macro pressure
ETF outflows of $460 million in one week, weakening fund flows
U.S. Treasury yields near 5%, pushing up the risk-free rate
Oil at 107, geopolitical tensions, and declining risk appetite
Resistance above: 78,000 → 79,500-80,000 → 80,560-81,300 (upper boundary of the range)
Support below: 76,400-76,500 → 76,000 (iron floor) → around 70,000
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Go lightly long if 77,000-76,400 holds on a pullback, with a stop-loss at 76,200 and targets of 78,000-79,500. Go lightly short if a rebound to 78,000-78,500 meets resistance, with a stop-loss at 78,700 and targets of 77,000-76,400.
Swing traders:
Wait for the FOMC decision; only chase longs after the daily chart holds above 80,500-81,000, with higher targets. If 76,000 breaks and is confirmed, watch the support around 70,000.
Long-term believers:
DCA in batches below 76,000. A move above 81,000 would confirm a trend recovery. But don't go all in—keep funds available to add to your position.
BTC now resembles the 2022 rate-hike cycle—
99% of people thought “the bull market is over because of rate hikes,” but every rate-hike decision turned out to mark an interim bottom.
On the day the FOMC decision is announced, you'll realize:
It wasn't that BTC was weak—you panicked before every event and chased the top afterward.
At $77,800, would you dare to make a move?#传Anthropic选择纳斯达克IPO #Gate24小时合约持仓量超114.79亿美元 #Gate广场中秋团圆局 $BTC $ETH $SOL

ZEC at $1,135—are you getting on board?
First, the surface view: up 130% in a month, then crashing from the 1298 high to a low of 1036, before rebounding to 1156 today. 1050-1070 is the recent low plus the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, while 1000 is the psychological level. Holding here means a strong pullback; breaking below it would be a trend reversal.
First: the NU7 vote tonight—don't just focus on the price action.
Vote proposals: replace halving with a smoother issuance curve, cut block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, and retire the Sprout pool. Sounds technical, so in plain English:
Faster blocks and an upgraded network experience
The issuance pace may change, but the total supply remains 21 million
The vote is advisory; even if passed, development and deployment will still be required
The key is not the vote result, but sentiment. If passed, there could be a short-term “sell-the-fact” pullback; if rejected, the market could be disappointed and dump.
Second: ETFs + whales—this is the real buying pressure.
Grayscale's spot ZEC ETF (ZCSH) listed on NYSE Arca on August 25, becoming the first U.S. spot ETF for a privacy coin, with AUM already reaching hundreds of millions of dollars. Whales bought approximately $41.6 million worth of ZEC and withdrew it from exchanges in one week. Companies such as Cypherpunk Technologies are treating ZEC as a treasury asset. Institutions are buying, whales are withdrawing, and shielded pools account for 25-30% of the supply.
But F2Pool's co-founder poured cold water on it: this is a narrative-driven squeeze, not a fundamental transformation.
Third: an FOMC rate hike—the gates of hell for high-beta altcoins.
At the Federal Reserve meeting on September 15-16, following hotter-than-expected August core CPI, the probability of a 25bp rate hike surged to 80-90%. This would be the first rate hike since July 2023.
As a high-beta privacy coin, ZEC is extremely sensitive to tightening liquidity. If the hike is delivered alongside a hawkish dot plot, ZEC could retest its lows; if the market has already fully priced it in, the event could instead become a “sell the rumor, buy the news” situation.
The bull-bear showdown—you decide
On one side:
ETF institutional buying remains steady, while whales withdraw coins from exchanges
Tightening shielded supply reduces the effective circulating supply
The NU7 upgrade + faster blocks keep the long-term narrative alive
Moving averages remain bullishly aligned, and the medium-term trend is still bullish
On the other side:
RSI bearish divergence, with weakening short-term momentum
Heavy resistance at the 1298 high, with some expectations already priced in
FOMC rate hike risk, pressuring high-beta assets
The short squeeze is over—who will buy?
Resistance above: 1150-1160 → 1237 → 1290-1300
Support below: 1050-1070 → 1000 (psychological) → 930 → 700 (50-day moving average)
Trading strategies
Short-term traders:
If 1150-1160 rejects and pulls back, try a small short position, targeting 1070-1050, with a stop-loss at 1180-1200. If price firmly reclaims 1150 on volume and holds on a retest, take a small long position, targeting 1230-1290, with a stop-loss at 1120.
Medium-term players:
Accumulate spot or low-leverage long positions in batches at 1050-1000, targeting 1200-1300. Keep the position size within your risk tolerance.
Long-term believers:
Privacy is a necessity in the AI era, and ZEC is the only privacy coin with an ETF. But narratives can double your money—or take you to zero.
ZEC now looks like Dogecoin in 2021—
It goes crazy on the way up and even crazier on the way down. But the difference is that Dogecoin relies on sentiment, while ZEC relies on ETFs and tightening supply.
As long as shorts remain, the rise continues; but once the shorts are gone, who will buy?
At 1135, do you dare chase it?#传Anthropic选择纳斯达克IPO #Gate24小时合约持仓量超114.79亿美元 #Gate广场中秋团圆局 $BTC $ETH $ZEC

USD8 is launching next week. Many people’s first reaction is to ask about the annualized yield, but that shouldn’t actually be the first question.
When putting stablecoins into an RWA yield product, I first look at whether the underlying assets are real and verifiable, and whether the funds are held in secure custody.
Then I confirm the redemption mechanism: Are there lock-up restrictions? Will redemption incur additional fees? Compared with an eye-catching APY, the authenticity of the assets and whether the funds can be withdrawn smoothly are the most critical considerations.