Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

NEAR at $3.65—would you still dare to chase it?
First, the surface view: it has gone parabolic, but it is already scorching hot in the short term.
Over 24 hours, it surged from 3.42 to 3.91 and is now hovering around 3.65, with trading volume exploding to $1.5–1.8 billion. It is up 55% in 7 days, with a market cap of $4.8 billion and a ranking surging to 19–23. The daily price is far above the 20/50/200-day moving averages, RSI is 75–83, and ADX trend strength is off the charts—this is a typical acceleration phase near a top.
First: the product has launched, but the price has already run ahead of the positive news
Confidential Intents TVL has surpassed $70 million, triggering the NEAR@3.33 milestone snapshot, with 333k locked tokens awaiting distribution. The unlock condition is for the 3-day VWAP to hold above 3.33—the price must hold for the incentives to be realized. This is a game with all the information in plain sight.
near.com has confidential perpetuals enabled by default, using the Hyperliquid engine and confidential sharding. Positions, entry prices, and directions are all hidden, with deposits supported from 35+ chains. NEAR Intents’ daily trading volume has surpassed $300 million, with cumulative volume reaching tens of billions, and protocol fees have begun buying back NEAR.
Second: the macro backdrop is “fake easing”—don’t be fooled by BTC’s rebound
On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25bp, taking a hawkish stance. But BTC rebounded from $76k to $81k. Why? Short squeezes and ETF inflows, not liquidity injections.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is nearing 5%, the dollar is relatively strong, and liquidity is not easing at all. Fear & Greed is at 71, in the greed zone. NEAR’s outperformance in this move is sector beta plus event-driven momentum, not a macro bull market.
Third: technically overbought, and a pullback is the real opportunity
Daily RSI is 75–83, the 4H stochastic has formed multiple bearish crosses, and the price has pulled back after spiking to 3.91. This is not a trend reversal, but short-term momentum is absolutely weakening.
Resistance: 3.78–3.83 → 3.88–3.92 → 4.00–4.11
Support: 3.50–3.53 (whether the pullback holds) → 3.25–3.35 (new floor) → 3.12–3.14 (trendline; a break would signal weakness)
The bulls and bears face off—judge for yourself
On one side:
Confidential Intents has launched, with TVL surpassing $70 million
Confidential perpetuals are live, with privacy trading + deposits from 35+ chains, maximizing differentiation
Intents’ daily trading volume has reached $300 million, with fees used for buybacks, creating real cash flow
Up 55% in 7 days, with an incredibly strong trend
On the other side:
Daily RSI is 75–83, severely overbought
4H stochastic bearish cross, with short-term momentum weakening
Thin weekend liquidity, with a high risk of wicks
The macro backdrop is not easing; if BTC falls below $79k, NEAR will crash first
OI is rising too quickly, and crowded trades are prone to false breakouts
Trading strategy
For those already holding long positions:
Reduce 30–50% at 3.78–3.90, bringing your cost basis into the safe zone. Raise the stop-loss to below 3.48 (aggressive) or below 3.24 (trend position).
For those with no position who want to go long:
First buy zone: 3.5–3.53, stop-loss at 3.42, targets at 3.8/4.0.
Better buy zone: 3.28–3.35. Wait for declining volume, a long lower wick, and the 4H chart not to break the previous low. Stop-loss at 3.18, targets at 3.80–4.1.
For a short-term reversal:
Only go lightly short if there is a high-volume break below 3.50 and the 1H chart fails to reclaim it, with a target of 3.35 and a stop-loss at 3.62.
Scenario analysis
Bullish: Hold 3.50, break above 3.78, target 4.00–4.20. If the 3-day VWAP remains above 3.33, the incentives being realized would be a positive catalyst.
Neutral: Range between 3.50–3.78 for 1–3 days to consolidate, then choose a direction. This is the highest-probability scenario.
Bearish: A daily close below 3.25, followed by a pullback to 3.12 or even 2.8x. The trend pauses temporarily; wait to act until it reclaims 3.35.
Both fundamentals and narrative are bullish, but the price has already priced in too much. 3.65 is not the best level to chase longs; 3.50 and 3.30 offer better risk-reward.
If you chase at 3.65 and it pulls back to 3.30, you’ll panic; if you wait at 3.30 and it rises to 4.00, you’ll look like a god.
The market always rewards the patient and punishes FOMO gamblers.
At 3.65, will you dare to chase or wait for a pullback? #美股AI概念股全线反弹 #Gate广场中秋团圆局 #每周来晒 $BTC $ETH $NEAR

Dear, if you were given $1 million, how would you allocate it?
Recently, Yueguang used @CreaoAI to create an “AI Million-Dollar Simulated Portfolio Weekly Report” AI Agent
It directly gave the AI $1 million in simulated funds, letting it decide what to buy, how to allocate the portfolio, and when to rebalance
And it’s not a matter of buying and then ignoring it—it has to review its performance every week:
What did it get right this week?
Where was its judgment wrong?
Which positions need to be adjusted?
How does it plan to improve next week?
Yueguang also specifically set conditions relatively close to those of ordinary investors, and everyone can change the settings according to their needs
I chose the following settings
Risk preference: Conservative
Benchmark: S&P 500
Investment scope: US stocks + bonds + gold
Leverage not allowed
Initial capital: $1M
Then, the Agent directly built the simulated portfolio for the first week and automatically generated a weekly report
What do you think—if AI were really given $1 million and allowed to run continuously for six months or even a year, could it actually outperform the S&P 500?
I plan to keep running this portfolio, and later regularly share the AI’s holdings, returns, rebalancing records, and reviews
So, if you were given $1 million, how would you allocate it?
Would you go all in on US stocks, or invest in stocks, bonds, and gold together?
Link:

Would you still dare buy ZEC at $1,565?
Look at the surface first: it has gone parabolic, but no one dares get off.
Over the past month, it surged from $470 to $1,565, up 170%+, with a weekly gain of 30%+, and its market cap has climbed to $25 billion. It broke above the 2018 high and entered price discovery—there is no overhead supply, so in theory it could rise to any level. The EMAs are in a bullish alignment, ADX trend strength is off the charts, and multiple timeframes show Strong Buy. The trend is still intact, but it is overheated.
First: this rally is not about narrative speculation—real money is entering
The Grayscale ZCSH spot ETF launched on August 25. AUM quickly rose from $500 million to $700-$800 million, and there is also a 3-for-1 split plan. Paradigm’s Matt Huang publicly disclosed his ZEC holdings and also invested in ecosystem development. In the NU7 governance vote, 2.4 million ZEC participated, with 99.9% supporting cutting block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds—making private transactions 3x faster.
Institutional access is already open, and money is pouring in
Top-tier VCs are not just watching—they are investing real money
The network is about to be upgraded, and the private transaction experience is set to take off
Second: privacy is being repriced
With AI surveillance everywhere, on-chain analytics firms digging through your wallet every day, and regulation becoming increasingly granular—at a time like this, “optional privacy” is shifting from a “geek toy” to a “necessity.”
ZEC is one of the few assets that can offer both transparent and shielded modes, with a hard cap of 21 million coins and a halving mechanism exactly like BTC’s. The shielded pool’s share has already reached 30%, Ledger integration is in place, and the community has made its commitment to locking funds for development clear.
Third: a technical signal has emerged that must be treated with caution
Daily RSI is around 75, with the weekly reading even higher, while the upper Bollinger Band is near $1,565. A bearish divergence has appeared on the 4-hour chart, and the pace of the advance is slowing.
What characterizes a parabolic major uptrend? It rises so much that you question reality, then a 20-40% pullback makes you question yourself.
Upside: 1588-1633 (recent highs); a breakout targets 1800, 1865, and 2000
First support: 1500-1518
Strong support: 1400-1420, 1375
Critical line: 1330; a break would damage the major uptrend structure
$1,565 is not a “buy with your eyes closed” level—it is a battleground over whether it is already expensive or can become even more expensive.
You decide in the bull-bear showdown
On one side:
ETF inflows continue, with AUM rising from $500 million to $800 million
Paradigm has publicly disclosed its holdings and invested in the ecosystem
The NU7 upgrade goes live on mainnet in November, tripling speed
The shielded pool is at 30%, as privacy is repriced as a necessity
The halving cycle is still in effect, and supply continues to contract
On the other side:
RSI at 75, with both daily and weekly charts overbought
A 170% monthly gain means profit-taking could hit at any time
Thin weekend liquidity creates a high risk of wick-driven volatility
The positive news is already priced in, and realization could become a negative catalyst
A break below 1330 would end the major uptrend
Trading strategy
Bullish approach:
Wait for a pullback to 1518-1500 or 1400-1420 to stabilize (a long lower wick + high-volume decline stabilization), then scale into longs. Set a stop-loss at 1375 or 5-8% below entry. Targets are 1588-1630, with 1800 in view on a breakout. Take half off at the first target.
Bearish approach:
If price stalls at 1588-1600 with a long upper wick and 4H bearish divergence, cautiously try a small short position. The stop-loss must be above 1630, with targets at 1518 and 1420.
Watch the final NU7 decision on October 20
A high-volume break below 1330 confirms the major uptrend has ended
ZEC now resembles Bitcoin in 2020—
Everyone thought “privacy coins were going nowhere,” but once the ETF launched, institutions bought aggressively.
But remember: after a 170% rally, what you need is patience, not FOMO.
At $1,565, will you chase it or wait for a pullback?#美股AI概念股全线反弹 #Gate广场中秋团圆局 #每周来晒 $BTC $ETH $ZEC

Why do you always make small profits and suffer big losses?
1. You don’t dare add to winning trades
As soon as you have a little unrealized profit, you get the urge to run, afraid the market will take those gains back. The market is only trending about 30% of the time; the remaining 70% is spent moving sideways. The big profits come from that 30% of the time. The pyramiding method is simple: add small positions in the direction of the trend, with each addition smaller than the last. For example, the first entry is 1%, the second is 0.5%, and the third is 0.25%. Your original risk doesn’t increase, but your profits can compound with the trend. Only add to winning trades. That’s a hard-and-fast rule.
2. You never set stop-losses
Put plainly, you don’t dare turn an unrealized loss into a realized loss. As long as you don’t close the position, you can keep fooling yourself into thinking you’re waiting to break even. The pain of losing $10,000 is more than twice the joy of making $10,000. To avoid admitting they were wrong, people will resort to all kinds of ostrich-like behavior. A stop-loss isn’t admitting defeat; it’s the price of admission for entering a trade. A trade without a stop-loss is essentially a bet with your entire principal.
3. You keep adding as the price falls
There’s nothing wrong with stocking up on two extra bottles of shampoo when they’re on sale, because shampoo won’t fall to zero. But in financial markets, a lower price often means the market is trying to tell you something. Your entry price is completely irrelevant to the market. The market has no idea how much you paid.
4. You take half your profits off the table
It sounds as safe as it gets. Risk 20 points, take half off after making 20 points, and move the rest to breakeven. Safe, right? But have you ever thought about this: if you repeat this process 10,000 times, you’ll only ever make small profits. Backtesting data on trend following shows that taking profits in batches almost always reduces total returns while also dragging down your risk-reward ratio. That’s because the fundamental structure of trading relies on a very small number of major moves to cover all the small losses. By dismantling half the engine just as the move is getting started, no matter how fast the remaining half of your position runs, it can’t make back the money lost to those stop-losses. When the market is moving in your direction, the correct move is to keep holding.
When making money, be like a miser. When cutting losses, be like a swift swordsman. Trading goes against human nature.

BREAKING : 🇺🇸 BlackRock and other ETFs have bought $433.03 million worth of Bitcoin and $143.80 million worth of Ethereum.
Insitutional demand is coming back .

The market goes to shit every weekend. I’m so hungry. A whole bunch of accounts got suspended yesterday, including two of my alt accounts. It really is profitable to run giveaways and promotions on X with multiple blue-verified accounts. So, does anyone need a new account opened today? Please support 🥺

$BTC broke below the support area, but it looks like a classic fakeout.
Bears pushed price lower, but BTC quickly reversed and is now trying to reclaim the key resistance zone.
If the bulls take control and break through, $84,000 becomes the next major area to watch.
The fake breakdown may have just trapped the sellers.
#JapanRealEstatePowerChipStocksRise #GateTopsStockPerpetualCoverage

UNI at $9.1—did you chase L?
Look at the surface first: from nobody wanting it to everyone scrambling for it, it took just 48 hours.
Up 17% on September 17 and another 13% on the 18th, it surged 45% on the weekly chart and 140% on the monthly chart. 24-hour trading volume exploded, open interest in futures surged, and short liquidations far exceeded long liquidations. The weekly chart broke through the descending wedge of the past two years, while the daily chart moved above all major moving averages, with a bullish alignment and strengthening trend—but the short-term RSI is already overheated.
First: the SEC handed UNI a knife, and the market immediately understood.
On September 17, the SEC announced an “innovation exemption,” allowing qualified venues to trade tokenized U.S. stocks through permissioned AMMs for five years.
Uniswap v4’s permissioned pools are exactly this architecture.
UNI used to be “the governance token of a decentralized exchange.” Now it has become “compliant infrastructure for bringing Wall Street assets on-chain.”
Second: UNI is no longer empty air—it has started being burned.
UNIfication will be implemented by the end of 2025, turning on the protocol fee switch, with part of the trading fees used for buybacks and burns. $9.3 million worth of UNI was burned in August alone, while protocol revenue from January to July 2026 was about $28.2 million.
With cumulative trading volume of $3.7 trillion, TVL of $3.8 billion, multichain deployment, and an undisputed lead among DEXs, if tokenized stocks really come on-chain and RWA truly takes off, UNI is the one collecting the tolls. You think it is expensive now, but once it really captures Wall Street’s trading volume, you will slap your thigh and say, “Why didn’t I buy it at $9 back then?”
Third: the technical picture has undergone a qualitative shift, but chasing the short-term rally is simply giving your head away.
The weekly chart broke through a two-year descending wedge, the 200-week EMA turned from resistance into support, and the daily moving averages are in a bullish alignment—the medium-term structure has indeed turned bullish.
However:
From 6.6 to 9.3, it rose 40% in one go, without a meaningful pullback in between
Lower-timeframe RSI is overbought, weekend liquidity is thin, and the probability of a false breakout is high
Futures funding rates are slightly positive, OI is rising, and longs are crowded
The bull-bear showdown—see for yourself
On one side:
The SEC’s innovation exemption directly benefits Uniswap v4 permissioned pools
The protocol fee switch and burn mechanism give UNI cash-flow capture
The RWA and tokenized U.S. stock narrative opens up an incremental growth ceiling
The weekly chart broke through a two-year descending wedge, turning the medium-term structure bullish
On the other side:
Severe short-term overbought conditions and strong demand for a pullback
The Clarity Act has not passed, and regulatory uncertainty remains
The rate hike outcome was hawkish, putting pressure on altcoin liquidity
Competing DEXs, such as Aerodrome, continue to siphon off volume
Resistance above: 9.34-9.50 → 10-11 → 12.70 (wedge target)
Support below: 8.80-8.90 → 8.11 → 7.69 → 7.50 (line in the sand)
Trading strategy
Aggressive short-term:
If a pullback to 8.8-8.9 quickly recovers with supporting volume, cautiously open a small long position, set a stop-loss below 8.65, and reduce the position at 9.3-9.5.
Conservative swing:
Wait for a pullback to the 7.7-8.2 range, then establish medium-term long positions after declining volume confirms a bottom or a bottom structure appears. The medium-term logic is protocol fee burns plus the RWA narrative, with targets of 10.5-12.7 and a stop-loss at 7.4 or on a daily close below 7.5.
Bearish approach:
If volume expands but price stalls around 9.35-9.5, with a long upper wick or divergence, cautiously open a small short position, target 8.8, and set a stop-loss above 9.6
When it was 6.6, you dismissed it as a governance token; at 9.3, you say the risk of chasing the rally is too high.
So tell me, when exactly do you plan to buy?
UNI has already transformed from a “pure governance token” into an asset with a “burn mechanism plus RWA upside potential.” The medium-term structure has turned bullish, but the short-term move from 6.6 to 9.3 in one go represents an emotional peak that needs time to digest.
Prioritize waiting for a pullback confirmation rather than chasing at 9.1.
At 9.1, would you dare chase it?#美股AI概念股全线反弹 #Gate广场中秋团圆局 #每周来晒 $BTC $ETH $UNI

$HYPE is showing some serious strength 👀
Hyperliquid has climbed from around $78 to above $93, with the 1H chart maintaining a clear upward structure. The price is now approaching the $94.44 area, while momentum remains elevated with RSI around 65.
The next move could be interesting if $HYPE can push through the recent high and hold above it.
Watching the $94–$96 zone closely. 📈
What level are you watching for $HYPE next?$NVDA #USHouseAdvancesBitcoinReserveBill #GateSquareMidAutumnReunion

$ETH just closed above $2,600 on the daily chart for the first time in 8 months.
That’s a big deal.
ETH is finally showing real strength, and if this level holds, it could open the door for a much bigger move across the altcoin market.
ETH strength → more confidence → more liquidity flowing into alts.
This could be the start of something much bigger.
Altseason may be waking up.
#JapanRealEstatePowerChipStocksRise #USAIConceptStocksRally #GateTopsStockPerpetualCoverage #BOJHikesTo1.25%31YearHigh

The vast majority of people sell profitable positions three times as often as they sell losing positions.
When they’re in profit, they’re timid as mice and rush to lock in gains; when they’re at a loss, they’re bold as brass, gambling that the position will recover.

A truly mature trader goes and does something else after entering a trade.
You see the setup, enter, place your stop-loss, click confirm, and then close your computer. That’s it.
Watching the charts won’t change the candlesticks; it will only change your mindset.
Any strategy with positive expectancy has a random distribution of wins and losses.
In other words, whether this trade wins or loses is no longer related to your skill the moment you click confirm. It’s simply drawing one card from a large pool of probabilities.
Winning with a bad hand doesn’t mean you played well, and losing with a good hand doesn’t mean you made the wrong move.
There is no right or wrong in a single trade. Only statistics from batches of 50 trades are meaningful.
The stop-loss you set is essentially answering one question: I acknowledge that I’m wrong at this level.
What happens with the price after that is the market’s business, not yours.
The real skill lies in what you do before entering a trade and after reviewing it. During those few hours in the middle of a trade, you’re just a spectator.

With $33 million in unrealized losses, he keeps adding—ZEC's biggest short's “doomsday bet”
ZEC surged to $1,584, a new all-time high.
One person is sitting atop a $33 million unrealized loss volcano.
He not only stayed put, but also sold $87.5 million worth of ETH to replenish his margin.
Then he kept holding.
Who is he?
His name is Garrett Jin.
The largest on-chain ZEC short.
He holds a short position of about 38k ZEC, worth nearly $59 million. His average short entry price is $665.8, while the current price is $1,540.
His short position has already lost more than its initial value.
The unrealized loss grew from $24 million on September 7, to $25.85 million on September 16, and then to $33.42 million on September 18.
He not only failed to stop-loss, but instead added 5,000 ZEC at $1,252.
The more he loses, the more he adds; the more he adds, the more he loses.
On September 18, he sold 35k ETH—worth $87.5 million—and used it all to replenish the margin for his ZEC short.
He forcibly pushed the liquidation price from $2,631 to $4,738.
He was buying time.
Time bought with ETH.
But ZEC had no intention of giving him time.
The day after he replenished his margin, another whale fell.
An address that had held a ZEC short for half a month, with a 79% win rate and cumulative profits of $9.11 million since June.
On September 19, ZEC reached $1,584.
Its liquidation price was $1,551.
It closed early at $1,548, with the $24.43 million short position realizing an actual loss of $10.68 million.
All the profits earned since June were wiped out.
And what is Garrett Jin’s liquidation price?
$4,738.
ZEC is now at $1,588.
There is still a $2,150 buffer.
But the question is—ZEC has risen more than 25x since the beginning of the year.
It has risen 160% in one month.
Is his buffer really enough?
He is not shorting ZEC.
He is betting on the collapse of the privacy narrative.
But look at the cards in the longs’ hands:
The NU7 upgrade will activate on mainnet on November 5. Block times will be cut from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, while 98.9% of the community voted to retain the halving mechanism.
Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang publicly confirmed that he holds ZEC, calling Zcash “a complement to Bitcoin in terms of privacy.”
Grayscale’s ZEC spot ETF (ZCSH) has been listed on the NYSE for two weeks, with assets surpassing $500 million and more than 550k ZEC locked up, representing about 3% of the circulating supply.
The shorts’ ammunition is dwindling.
Time is running out.
Yet the liquidation price is moving farther away.
The most expensive thing in the market is not getting the direction wrong.
It is continuing to add to the bet after getting the direction wrong.#美股AI概念股全线反弹 #Gate广场中秋团圆局 #每周来晒 $BTC $ETH $ZEC

Today’s AI U.S. stock information gap:
1. $BTC surged 5%, breaking through $80,000 in one move and setting its sights on $100,000. Half the rise was driven by a short squeeze.
2. $SPCX fell 2%. Starship’s 14th test flight was postponed. They didn’t say the rocket was broken, only that they were waiting for approval, while also extending a $6 billion NASA contract.
3. $GOOGL also learned jailbreaking from OpenAI, hacked into another company’s system, and even correctly guessed the account password. This AI battle has truly changed the balance of offense and defense.
4. Age catches up with everyone! Buffett is stepping down as chairman this time as well, handing the role to his own son. Abel will remain CEO, and Buffett said his performance has exceeded expectations.
5. Did $Anthropic breach $OpenAI? A white-hat hacker used Claude to find an OpenAI employee’s credentials and log into the internal codebase. Although it wasn’t serious, being able to access the internal GitHub is embarrassing enough.

1 hour ago, ZEC rose to $1,584. A whale who had been holding a ZEC short position for half a month was forced to close his $24.43 million ZEC short position at $1,548, realizing a loss of $10.68 million! He had no choice but to close it, because his liquidation price was $1,551. If he had not closed it manually, he would have faced forced liquidation and suffered an even greater loss. In fact, he had made quite a lot earlier, with a win rate of 79%. From 6

Back above the 50-week moving average: Is this the fifth “bear-to-bull” signal in BTC history?
$81,000, up 6% in a single day, back above the 50-week moving average.
But Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, said something more important than the price itself:
“The current rally looks real.”
Those three words—“looks real”—are where all the suspense lies. A head of research would not casually use a word like “looks.” He has data, historical models, and statistical samples from thirteen years of bear-market cycles. What did he see, and what is he uncertain about?
Thorn’s model is clear: Every BTC bear market is defined by two moving averages. The 200-week moving average forms the bottom support, while the 50-week moving average creates resistance above.
Since 2011, three of the four bear markets confirmed a cycle bottom when the weekly close held above the 50-week moving average. The only exception was the 2021–2022 double-top cycle.
In other words, this is not some mystical indicator. It is a “bottom verdict” that has been repeatedly validated.
The 50-week simple moving average is currently around $81,041. Price has just crossed above it. But “crossing above” and “holding above” are two completely different things on the weekly timeframe.
There is only one key condition:
Can the weekly close this Sunday, September 20, hold above the 50-week moving average?
If it holds, the buy signal is confirmed. That is how the bottoms of the previous four bear markets were confirmed.
If the weekly close falls back below it, this intraday breakout will simply be another false breakout.
And a “false breakout” just happened on August 25. At the time, BTC briefly surged to around $81,000, touched the 50-week moving average, and was immediately pushed back down, falling all the way to $76,000.
The same level, the same script, playing out for a second time. Is it real or false this time?
A price breakout is a signal for short-term traders; the weekly close is the verdict for trend traders.
Short-term traders have already chased in at $81,000. Trend traders are still waiting for Sunday.
Meanwhile, the 4-hour RSI has already reached 78.57, firmly in overbought territory. Technically, a healthy pullback to the EMA50, around $77,351, is possible.
Those who blindly go all-in before weekly confirmation will most likely be shaken out around $77,000, only to watch the weekly candle close above it. This is the classic retail-trader script.
This recovery is taking place just after the Federal Reserve restarted rate hikes. On September 17, the federal funds rate was raised by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 5.01%.
By traditional logic, rate hikes plus high yields equal a massacre for risk assets.
But BTC has carved out an independent rally in a tightening environment. Liquidity conditions are recovering in tandem—on September 17, spot BTC ETFs recorded approximately $159 million in net inflows again, while BlackRock’s IBIT saw $184 million in net inflows in a single day.
Coinbase, Strategy, and MARA all surged simultaneously. This is not an isolated price rebound; risk appetite is spreading across the entire crypto-asset chain.
An independent rally in a tightening environment deserves more attention than a rally in an easing environment. It indicates that structural buying is providing a floor, rather than the move being driven by an excess of liquidity.
But don’t open the champagne yet.
The Fear and Greed Index is currently only at 53–57, neutral to slightly greedy, still far from the “extreme greed” FOMO zone. This shows that most people are still waiting on the sidelines, and the real retail army has not rushed in yet.
And that is precisely a good thing—if sentiment had already exploded, it would instead be time to stay alert.
Before weekly confirmation, keep your position size at a level where you can withstand a pullback to $77,000. Do not change your risk framework just because of a 6% one-day gain.
If Sunday’s close is above the 50-week moving average, this will be the most important technical signal of 2026, more definitive than any ETF inflow data.
If it fails to hold, keep waiting. The market will not give you an answer early just because you are anxious.
Two more days. Wait patiently. #Gate广场中秋团圆局 #美股AI概念股全线反弹 #每周来晒 $BTC $ETH $SOL

If it follows Scenario 2, to determine whether this is the main upward wave, observe the strength at the 1:1 ratio level. If it significantly exceeds the 1:1 ratio, then the rise starting from 74887 is Wave 3, marking the beginning of the main upward wave; if it encounters clear resistance around the 1:1 ratio or does not reach the 1:1 ratio at all, exercise greater caution.

Two possible paths for Bitcoin going forward: 1. (Figure 1) The adjustment from 82283---74887 was a wave 4 correction. The rise that began at 74887 is now wave 5. After wave 5 rises to a certain ratio of the wave 1 rise, the entire upward move will end, initiating a correction of the overall rise from 57718. After the correction, another larger upward move of the same degree will begin;

I’ve basically never used a bot. But from the perspective of normal trading, my understanding is:
“I opened a grid from 122–127 and set a stop loss at 118. So, to a normal person, this means that once the price goes beyond the grid’s upper and lower limits (122–127), it should stop opening new orders; when it reaches the 118U stop-loss level, it should trigger the stop loss.
But what happened was: the price never reached the 118 stop-loss level, so I had to absorb the unrealized loss myself.”

David Hoffman, co-founder of Bankless, posted on X on September 18:
“We have now entered altcoin season, and the real market moment has arrived earlier than expected.”
On May 21, he liquidated all his ETH and turned around to buy LIT, ZEC, NEAR, HYPE, and VVV. By September 18:
LIT +272%. ZEC +170%. NEAR +149%. HYPE +92%.
ETH rose only about 16% over the same period.
ZEC was around $560 when he entered, and surged to $1,512 on September 18. HYPE broke above $90 to reach a new all-time high. NEAR soared 30% in a single day to $3.54.
He does indeed have the credentials to say that.
But there is one data point he may have overlooked.
BlockchainCenter’s Altcoin Season Index had a latest September reading of 37.
How is this index calculated? It’s simple: among the top 50 coins by market capitalization, how many have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days? Only when more than 75% have outperformed does it count as altcoin season.
What is it now? 37.
Not even half the passing mark.
This means that more than 60% of the top 50 coins by market capitalization have underperformed Bitcoin.
What about BTC dominance? The September 15 reading was 58.4%. It is holding near its highs, completely unmoved.
So whose altcoin season is the “altcoin season” Hoffman is talking about?
It is his altcoin season.
It is the altcoin season of those five coins of his. Not yours, not mine, and not that of most people in the market.
You open Twitter and see KOLs showing off their gains: LIT is up, ZEC is up, HYPE is up.
You open your own wallet: your positions have barely moved, or are even falling.
You start wondering whether you chose the wrong coins.
No. The market has changed.
This cycle is not a “broad-based altcoin season.” Capital has not spilled over from BTC into all altcoins. Capital is selectively flowing into a very small number of assets—those with ETF access, buyback mechanisms, and narrative engines.
Hyperliquid has fee-based buybacks, ZEC has a repricing of its privacy narrative, and LIT has staking lockups. They are rising not because “altcoin season has arrived,” but because they are strong on their own.
And most altcoins do not even qualify for capital to take a look at them.
Hoffman is not wrong—for himself.
But for you, it may be an entirely different story.
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