Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

If I could use only one metric to pick stocks, I would choose ROE. Why? Because ROE is the engine of compound growth.
List of U.S. stocks with high ROE:
1. NVIDIA $NVDA
ROE as high as 76%, net profit margin of 63%, selling the computing power the entire world urgently needs. It holds around 90% of the AI training chip market, essentially collecting tolls on the entire AI revolution, while its balance sheet is still all net cash.
2. TSMC $TSM
ROE of 32%, the undisputed global leader in chip foundry services. Everyone from NVIDIA to Apple has to line up for its production capacity. With technology leading the next generation, it is a scarce asset with no readily available substitute.
3. Broadcom $AVGO
ROE of 28%, dominating both custom AI chips and network switching chips. Tech giants cannot avoid it when developing their own computing power. With VMware’s software cash flow providing a foundation, it is strong on both offense and defense.
4. Microsoft $MSFT
ROE of 30%, net profit margin of 39%, collecting rent from cloud services, office software, and AI. Azure is benefiting from the AI boom, and its enterprise customer retention is exceptionally strong, making it the most reliable AI picks-and-shovels provider.
5. Meta $META
ROE of 28%, earning more than $60 billion annually with an advertising money-printing machine and an open-source AI strategy. It uses AI to improve ad targeting, and monetization efficiency is still rising.
6. Google $GOOGL
ROE of 32%, with three cash flow engines: search, cloud, and YouTube. Gemini and its large-model computing power are hidden trump cards, while its valuation has remained relatively low among the major tech companies for years.
7. Vertiv $VRT
ROE of 34%, a supplier of power and cooling equipment for AI data centers. The more powerful the computing infrastructure, the more it earns. It is the strongest link in the AI infrastructure chain, with orders booked out as far as the eye can see.
8. GE Vernova $GEV
ROE of 44%, a leader in U.S. grid modernization and gas turbines. Data center power shortages are a highly certain issue for the next decade, and this is the company selling the equipment that generates and delivers the power.
9. Eaton $ETN
ROE of 21%, a veteran powerhouse in electrical equipment. Its data center and grid orders are growing rapidly. Its ROE looks moderate, but its strength lies in stability, making it the ballast of the power sector.
10. Arista Networks $ANET
ROE of 28%, the dominant provider of high-speed network switches inside AI clusters. It is deeply tied to NVIDIA and Microsoft, and cloud providers cannot avoid it when expanding their computing capacity.
11. Mastercard $MA
ROE of 193%, one of the lightest businesses in the world: it does not handle the money and only collects tolls. As global card usage rises, so does Mastercard’s revenue, while its profit margin has remained above 50% for years.
12. Visa $V
ROE of 53%, one of the two payment oligopolists alongside Mastercard. Its network effects are extraordinarily strong. It collects a fee whether the economy is good or bad, making it the kind of business model Warren Buffett loves most.
13. Moody’s $MCO
ROE of 61%, a duopoly in both ratings and data. Anyone issuing debt has to pay it, making it the financial sector’s hidden tollbooth, with exceptionally strong cash flow.
14. Eli Lilly $LLY
ROE of 78%, with its weight-loss and diabetes drugs selling explosively worldwide. Annual profits of $20 billion are still growing rapidly, making it the pharmaceutical company currently best at making money anywhere in the world.
Their profit-making efficiency is getting more impressive with each one!

When trading gold, why can two platforms’ quotes look nearly identical, yet actual order execution may be a completely different story? 👀 I used to focus on the latest price when checking market data. Later, I realized that when you’re actually preparing to trade, there are many other details in the order book worth examining. For example, how wide is the spread between the best bid and best ask? How many orders are really sitting within the top 10 levels? If the market suddenly moves, can you still get the price you originally intended to trade at? This edition of TradFi

It was mentioned a long time ago that the crypto market follows certain rhythms. Let’s review them today. In an upward trend in the crypto market: Some altcoins rise ahead of Bitcoin, most rise along with Bitcoin, and some rise after Bitcoin; Those that rise ahead can, in most cases, only be positioned in advance on the left side of the trend. If you didn’t position yourself in advance, then you missed it—you can treat it as a signal;

Everyone was ready for crypto to get hit this week.
Instead, the market did the opposite.
$BTC held $75K, bounced 7% from the low and pushed back above $80K.
$ETH defended $2,350, gained 10% from the low and reclaimed $2,550.
Even ALTs came alive, up 17% from the recent low and back above $225B for the first time in 8 months.
Total crypto market cap also held $2.5T and recovered around $200B.
What makes this move interesting is the backdrop: CLARITY failed, the Fed hiked rates and oil stayed elevated.
Yet the major supports didn’t break.
That’s a good sign, but I’m not calling a new bull run just yet.
$BTC still needs a weekly close above the 50W MA at $78,760, followed by a clean break of $83K.
For $ETH, $2,600 is the level to hold.
Strong bounce? Yes.
Bull market confirmed? Not yet.
#GateTops24HNetInflowsAmongExchanges #BTCRetakes80K
#EthereumSpotETFsSee144MNetInflow
#GateSquareMidAutumnReunion

$3.70 NEAR—are you chasing it?
Look at the surface first: bullish news is bombarding the market, but the price has stopped rising.
It gained 47%-53% over the past week, more than doubled on the monthly chart, and 24h trading volume expanded to the billion-dollar level. But today it is hovering around $3.70, while RSI has surged to 73-77, indicating overbought conditions. The short term is overheated—don't chase it.
First: confidential perpetuals + Intents—this time, it's not vaporware.
Hyperliquid integrated confidential perpetuals, hiding positions, direction, and identity by default. NEAR Intents' cross-chain intent layer TVL rose 77% month-on-month to 169 million, while weekly volume surpassed 1 billion. Fees are used for buybacks, and the inflation target has been lowered to 2.5%.
NEAR has transformed from a "sharded L1" into "chain abstraction + private trading + AI Agent infrastructure."
Institutions have SVRN accumulating coins, while Bitwise/21Shares/Grayscale staking products are up and running.
The weekly chart has already gained 50%, and a large portion of the bullish news has been priced in.
Second: Fed rate hikes—the blade that high-beta altcoins fear most.
On September 16, the Fed raised rates by 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% and even said that "further tightening may follow." BTC is around 80k, ETH is at 2570, BTC dominance is 59%, and altseason has not been confirmed.
NEAR is high-beta. When BTC falls, it falls harder.
Third: the technical chart shows an inverse head-and-shoulders breakout, but the position is wrong.
The weekly inverse head-and-shoulders pattern has a neckline at 3.10-3.12 and broke out on increased volume. Some see targets at 5, or even 8-11. Daily moving averages are in a bullish alignment, but RSI is overbought and the price is hugging the upper Bollinger Band. From 2.34 to 3.7, it is in the second half of a parabolic move.
You decide in the bull-bear battle.
On one side:
Confidential perpetuals + Intents seeing surging volume, with products going live
TVL up 77% month-on-month, with fees used for buybacks
Weekly inverse head-and-shoulders breakout, with a bullish structure
Institutional staking products + coin accumulation narrative
On the other side:
Fed rate hikes, with high interest rates suppressing risk assets
RSI at 73-77 and overbought, with profit-taking possible at any time
If BTC breaks below 80k, NEAR will be among the first to be cut
Poor weekend liquidity, with a high probability of a false breakout
Resistance above: 3.75 → 3.90-4.00 → 4.20
Support below: 3.50-3.55 → 3.35 → 3.20 → 3.10
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Wait for a pullback to 3.48-3.55 with the 4H chart stabilizing, then cautiously go long with a small position; stop-loss at 3.32-3.35, targets at 3.75/3.95-4.20. Chase only after a breakout of 3.78-3.80 holds, with the stop-loss at the breakout candle's low.
Swing traders:
A 3-7 day range-bound move between 3.50-3.75 would be the healthiest scenario, allowing RSI to cool down. A high-volume daily close below 3.35, followed by a retest of the 3.10 neckline, is a test of the trend—not a reason to buy the dip.
Long-term believers:
Wait for a pullback below 3.50 or confirmation of a breakout above 4.0 before taking action. Keep total position risk at 1%-1.5%, and stay away from leverage above 10x. NEAR has products providing fundamental support, but chasing a long at 3.70 is simply handing money to market manipulators.
NEAR has products this time; this is not a pure vaporware pump—
But at 3.70, the most expensive thing is emotion, while the cheapest thing is waiting.
With the same inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, you missed the entry at 3.10, then chased in at 3.70—one pullback and you will not be able to hold.
What is your NEAR cost basis?
At 3.70, will you chase or wait for a pullback? #MSTR领涨纳指100 #BTC重回80K #Gate广场中秋团圆局 $BTC $NEAR $ETH

A friend who only entered the space this year told me today that she’s been absolutely wrecked by U.S. stock-related Memes lately. Her exact words were roughly: “I’ve never lost money this quickly even trading stocks. No matter how bad a stock is, it can only hit the daily limit down. After two or three limit-down sessions, the losses are basically absorbed. With stock Memes, they get cut in half within a few days. You think it’s finally bottomed, and then it gets cut in half again shortly after.”

Although the monthly K-line has only just begun to rise, it perfectly matches the pattern of the end of a bear market and the beginning of a bull market.
However, all indicators on the weekly K-line have remained at the top. What I have always been most concerned about is whether the weekly K-line will remain overbought while rising alongside the monthly K-line, or whether it will undergo a pullback, bottom out, and then continue rising alongside the monthly K-line.
No one has really been able to determine this.
If there is no external bearish catalyst to trigger it, then sustained sideways consolidation instead of a decline is perfectly possible: the weekly indicators remain overbought, and after enough time passes, prices rise directly.
But what if an external bearish catalyst triggers a round of adjustment?
You have to understand that the big players at a true market top can switch between long and short positions at any time, and make money either way. It depends on whether they believe external conditions can assist and amplify the force and direction they expect.
So what is the external bearish catalyst right now? Will there be one? Previously, everyone thought it would be the bearish impact of the CLARITY Act vote temporarily failing, along with the impact of interest-rate hikes. But the SEC has already offset the failure of the CLARITY Act by granting exchanges a five-year exemption for tokenized securities. And interest-rate hikes are something everyone knew would most likely happen; their bearish impact has already been priced in.
So what other bearish catalysts are there? Could the recent turmoil in Europe and the Middle East trigger one? No one really knows!
In many cases, ordinary people can only endure bearish news, because by the time you feel its impact taking effect, prices have already fallen more than halfway. Meanwhile, those top players began dumping and shorting long before the bearish news had affected prices. It is just like what was portrayed in “Margin Call”: the people who discover the bearish news become the instigators of the decline, triggering a chain reaction.

Would you still bet on AKE at $0.05?
First, look at the surface: up 3x in a week and 6x in a month.
It surged from the low to 0.08-0.16, then crashed back to 0.05. With 24-hour trading volume reaching several hundred million dollars, open interest hitting record highs, and high-level consolidation after a parabolic rise, it has pulled back from overbought territory, with RSI falling from the heavens back to earth. Everyone knows a pullback is coming, but everyone thinks they can get out before it happens.
First: Tomorrow’s unlock—will $100 million in selling pressure crash the market, or has the good news already been priced in?
On September 21, AKE will unlock 2.11 billion tokens, accounting for 2.11% of the total supply, worth approximately $105-$127 million at the current price.
Recipients: investors 47%, insiders 22%, community 30%.
Put plainly, more than half of the unlocked tokens may have a cost basis just one-tenth of yours. They received them in the seed round and have already multiplied their holdings by an unknown number of times.
The market has already priced in some of the selling pressure, but are you really sure it has priced in enough?
Second: Is OK’s launch of 20x perpetuals an opportunity or a meat grinder?
On September 16, OK launched AKE USDT perpetuals with up to 20x leverage.
Liquidity has indeed improved, but the other side of improved liquidity is—greater harvesting efficiency.
Third: Fundamentals—the narrative is sexy, but where is the product?
Akedo is positioned as an AI multi-agent game engine and Launchpad on BNB Chain. Its narrative hits AI+GameFi, and its seed round raised $5 million.
The total supply is 100 billion, while only 22.8 billion are circulating (22.8%); more tokens will be unlocked on the 21st of every month. The circulating market cap is $1.1-$1.3 billion, while the fully diluted valuation is absurdly high. There is currently no strong support from product implementation or actual usage data. What is the valuation based on? The narrative, liquidity, and retail traders like you rushing in.
High narrative, high dilution, high volatility—an asset with three highs, suitable for speculation but not investment.
Look at the bull-bear battle yourself
On one side:
Tomorrow’s unlock puts $100 million in selling pressure overhead
Insiders and investors account for 69% of the unlocked amount, with extremely low cost bases
Suspected on-chain wash trading and volume inflation
Technical overbought pullback; if support at 0.0418 breaks, the next target is 0.03
The Federal Reserve just raised rates by 25 bp; the macro environment is tight, and altcoins are relying on their own narratives
On the other side:
The AI+GameFi narrative is hot, with institutional backing in the seed round
OK’s launch of perpetuals has improved liquidity and attracted significant capital attention
Negative funding rates and crowded shorts could trigger a rebound
Community rewards are being distributed, and community activity is strong
BTC is above 80,000, ETF inflows continue, and risk appetite has not collapsed
Resistance above: 0.055-0.062 → 0.068 → 0.08+
Support below: 0.0418 (strong support) → 0.029-0.031 (deep-water zone)
Trading strategy
1. Prioritize staying on the sidelines:
Tomorrow’s unlock is a clear event; first watch the market’s reaction over the 4-12 hours after the unlock. If it breaks below 0.042 on heavy volume and fails to hold, the downside could open toward 0.03 or even lower.
2. Short-term shorting idea:
If a rebound reaches 0.055-0.062 and meets resistance, accompanied by long upper wicks or heavy-volume stagnation, consider trying a small short position. Set the stop-loss above the recent structural high (around 0.068, for example), with targets at 0.042 and 0.03.
3. Long idea:
After the unlock is completed, if the price stabilizes around 0.042-0.045 on declining volume and then regains 0.055 on increasing volume, consider a small position to play a rebound.
AKE’s biggest problem right now is not the narrative or the broader market—
It is the token distribution structure.
You enter at 0.05; insiders got in at 0.005. You use 20x leverage while they dump spot tokens. You watch the candlestick chart; they watch your principal.
After a 6x rise, you dare not buy; after a 50% drop, you dare not cut your losses. You are not trading crypto—you are being traded by crypto.
The market will provide the answer after tomorrow’s unlock. But remember one thing:
In this market, the most expensive thing is not the coin—it is your illusion.
What is your AKE cost basis?
Tomorrow’s unlock—do you dare bet?#MSTR领涨纳指100 #BTC重回80K #Gate广场中秋团圆局 $BTC $ETH $AKE

Things I expect to see by the end of 2026
• Bitcoin above $100K
• Ethereum above $3,500
• Inflation continuing to cool
• Altcoins making a strong comeback
• ETF inflows staying strong
• More countries adopting clear crypto regulations
• More capital flowing into crypto
• Green portfolios across the market 🟢
2026 could be the year crypto finally gets the macro backdrop it has been waiting for.
Save this.

Mrs. Song in Dwelling Narrowness said
Men need a stepping stone when they are young (a virtuous wife to help them achieve their ambitions)
A shot in the arm in middle age (a young, beautiful female college student)
A walking stick when they are old (a nanny)
Husbands, is this really how it is?

$ADA is back at a level that really matters.
Price has bounced hard from the $0.19 area and is now pushing into the $0.218–$0.223 resistance zone.
This is where I’d expect the real battle.
If ADA gets rejected → $0.205–$0.20 could be the next retest.
If bulls break and hold above $0.223, the chart opens up toward $0.23–$0.25.
I’m not chasing this candle.
Let ADA show the next move first.

There isn’t much time left to seize the big opportunity.
This is a midterm election year. Looking back over the past 60 years, the market has basically been paralyzed five or six weeks before the election—moving sideways, filled with anxiety, and unable to gain traction. The Nasdaq’s sideways movement this year is practically a textbook replay. But remember this statistic: Since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen 19 times and fallen 0 times in the 12 months following a midterm election, without exception, with an average gain of more than 12%.
We’re now about five weeks away from Election Day, which means the historically easiest time to make money is about to begin!

Don't sell right before the bloodbath!
1. SpaceX $SPCX
As long as it holds above 150 and doesn't lose that level on Monday, it will continue grinding sideways and upward. A breakout above 152 would mark a true takeoff. If it falls below 150, it will likely come back to fill the lower boundary of the channel—that's your chance to get in. Don't panic.
2. Tesla $TSLA
Below 370, the spring will continue coiling. The tighter it gets compressed, the harder it will bounce. Once it breaks above 370 on strong volume, a rally will follow. Anything below 380 still counts as sideways accumulation. Hold on and don't overtrade.
3. S&P 500 $SPY
Last week's false breakdown was the big players setting a bear trap and hunting stop-losses. Now that the trap has been set, there's no further downside story. Any pullback is a chance to buy the dip—don't sell at a loss in the trap.
4. Nasdaq ETF $QQQ
Same script as SPY: after sweeping liquidity, it will reverse and move higher. Once it holds above 720, it will refuel in midair. Tech stocks are still the main trend, so buy the dip aggressively.
Now that the trap has been set, if there is no pullback next week, we'll see an explosive rally!

FIL at $0.95—did you buy it?
Look at the surface first: bullish news is everywhere, but the price still knelt first.
Up 17% over the past 7 days and 22% over 30 days, with a $790 million market cap and $260 million in trading volume—the liquidity is sufficient, but weekend order books are as thin as paper. The rebound from 0.614 to 1.12 is an oversold bounce, and yesterday’s long upper wick showed profit-taking in action.
First: October 15 marks FIL’s biggest supply turning point in history
Protocol Labs and the Filecoin Foundation’s six-year linear unlock schedule officially ends on October 15. Previously, 66.7 million FIL was unlocked each year, plus 21.7 million in block rewards, for total annual issuance of 88 million. After October 15, only block rewards will remain, cutting new issuance by 75% directly to 22 million FIL per year. More than 60 million FIL less in annual selling pressure.
This is the biggest change in the supply structure since mainnet launch, and funds priced it in early, leading to this rebound from 0.614 to 1.12.
Second: the products are talking about “paid demand,” but the numbers are honest
Filecoin Onchain Cloud, Fil One, AI Agent Skills, RWA data anchoring—the direction is right.
But look at the actual paid data: Filecoin Pay’s annualized run rate was a few hundred dollars at the beginning of the year, around $59,000 at the end of August, and approximately $139,000 ARR according to another mid-month figure. The number of paying addresses increased from 73 to 119.
That is growth, but it started from a near-zero base.
Third: technically, yesterday’s wick is the answer
Daily structure: 0.61 → 0.80 → 0.93/1.03 → 1.12. After surging to 1.12 yesterday, it closed lower, a typical “sell-the-news” distribution move. The moving averages are still above price (SMA10 around 0.88, SMA20 around 0.84), so the daily trend remains intact, but RSI has fallen from overbought levels and the MACD bars have shortened.
The bulls and bears are facing off—you decide
On one side:
A 75% issuance reduction on October 15, a major supply-structure shift
Products landing one after another, shifting from capacity to paid usage
Daily moving averages in a bullish alignment, with the trend still intact
The rebound from 0.614, with funds pricing in the issuance reduction early
On the other side:
Paid ARR is only in the five- to six-figure range, unable to support an $800 million market cap
The Federal Reserve just raised rates by 25 bp to 3.75-4%, with a hawkish dot plot
1.12 was rejected, with clear distribution through the upper wick
Weekend liquidity is poor, so 3-5% wicks around 0.95 are normal
Resistance above: 0.99-1.03 → 1.12 → 1.20-1.30
Support below: 0.92-0.93 → 0.87-0.88 → 0.80-0.81
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
The area from above 0.95 to 0.99 is a resistance zone with a poor risk-reward ratio. Go long on a pullback to 0.92-0.93, stop below 0.888, with targets at 0.99/1.03; reduce the position at 0.99. Exit short-term longs if the 4H candle closes below 0.88.
Swing traders:
Scale into positions at 0.93, 0.88, and 0.81; don’t go all-in at 0.95. The first target is 1.03-1.12, while the second target depends on whether sentiment around the issuance reduction can push it back to 1.20-1.30. Volatility often expands on the issuance-reduction date and the 3 days before and after it; “buy the expectation, sell the realization” is common. If you have unrealized gains, take profits in batches above 1.03—don’t fantasize about a linear rise.
Long-term believers:
Wait to build positions in batches in the 0.88-0.81 range, hold for 3-6 months, and bet on the supply turning point plus commercial validation. Target: 1.20-1.50. But remember—paid demand is not a certainty; the issuance reduction is.
FIL’s current valuation is seriously disconnected from its fundamentals—
Network capacity is measured in EiB, paid ARR is five figures, and the market cap is $790 million.
This isn’t because the network is weak; it’s because you went all-in too early.
The October 15 issuance reduction is a certainty; paid demand is not. You can bet on the narrative, but don’t bet your entire position.
What is your FIL cost basis?
At 0.95, are you brave enough to buy the dip, or will you wait for 0.88?#MSTR领涨纳指100 #BTC重回80K #Gate广场中秋团圆局 $BTC $ETH $FIL

ETH at $2570—are you buying?
First, the surface: down 2% over the weekend, and people in the group are already shouting, “ETH is over.”
From 2668 to 2564, the decline was less than 4%, but panic is heavier than after a 20% drop. 2560-2580 is the previous breakout zone, and 2570 sits right in it. This is not a crash; it is the big players using thin weekend liquidity to shake out those who cannot hold.
First: The SEC quietly opened a door for ETH
Many people did not understand why the market rebounded 6% on Friday. Here is why: the SEC’s “Innovation Exemption” pilot allows tokenized NMS stocks to trade on public blockchains, while ETH is viewed by the market as the primary settlement layer.
When Wall Street’s stocks go on-chain in the future, ETH will be the preferred track. This is not a meme-level positive catalyst; it is a key step in turning ETH from the “leader of altcoins” into a settlement layer for traditional finance.
Second: ETF funds are returning, but retail is cutting losses
On September 18, spot ETH ETFs saw net inflows of $144 million, with BlackRock ETHA alone contributing $114 million, ending three consecutive days of outflows.
But the week still saw net outflows of $140 million. Institutions bought on Friday, while retail sold from Monday through Thursday. Cumulative net inflows reached $13.25 billion, with ETF net assets at $16.7 billion, accounting for 5.2% of ETH’s market cap. Staking ETFs have also launched, allowing traditional funds for the first time to earn both from the coin price and on-chain yield.
Third: The Glamsterdam upgrade, with the gas limit set to reach 200 million
The Sepolia testnet is targeted for October 6, with mainnet deployment in Q4. The core features are ePBS and parallel execution, pushing the L1 gas limit from 60 million toward 200 million.
ETH throughput will take another step higher, fees will be lower, and L2s will run more smoothly. This is a medium-term narrative, not something that will be realized tomorrow, but the market will price it in early.
You can judge the bull-bear battle yourself
On one side:
SEC pilot, making ETH a compliant settlement layer
$144 million in daily ETF inflows, led by BlackRock
34% staking ratio, with 41 million coins locked
Gas as low as $0.095, TVL in the $50 billion range
Weekly chart above the 50-week moving average; downtrend broken
On the other side:
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, with Warsh hawkish
10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 5%, with high funding costs
August CPI at 3.4%, core CPI at 2.4%; inflation remains sticky
Thin weekend liquidity, with short-term momentum weakening on the 4H/1H charts
Once 2560 breaks on a daily close, the next stops are 2500 and even 2438
Strong resistance: 2660-2672 (weekly Fibonacci; a close above opens 2950-3000)
Secondary resistance: 2630 / 2757
Current battle zone: 2560-2580 (breakout retest zone)
Medium support: 2500-2510
Strong support: 2438 / 2400 (0.618 retracement + dense liquidation zone)
Invalidation level: around 2220
Trading strategy
Bullish primary strategy:
2570 can be used for a small long position; cleaner long entries are adding after a firm hold at 2500-2515 on a retest, or scaling in at 2438-2400 if the decline is deeper. Add to the position for confirmation after reclaiming 2630 and holding it on the 4H chart. Targets: first 2668-2672, second 2750-2760, third 2920-3000. Stop-loss: below 2548 for the initial long; for entries from 2500, below 2428.
Bearish approach:
Only consider a short if a rebound to 2630-2672 fails, leaves a clear upper wick, and weakens on the 4H chart. Target 2560, then 2500. The stop-loss must be above 2685.
2570 is not the starting point of a crash; it is a retest after the breakout.
Retail is cutting losses over the weekend, while institutions already bought $144 million on Friday.
ETH is not failing; you just cannot hold it.
In the medium term, with the ETF + staking lockup + Glamsterdam narrative, ETH still has structural room to move toward 2900-3000. But in the short term, it must first hold 2560; otherwise, Friday’s profit-taking positions will first be shaken out toward 2500 or even 2438.
Do not hand over your chips in thin liquidity; wait for U.S. market liquidity to return on Monday before taking action.
What is your ETH cost basis?
At 2570, will you chase or wait for a retest?#BTC重回80K #Gate广场中秋团圆局 #MSTR领涨纳指100 $BTC $ETH $SOL

$ETH is waking up!
Ethereum jumped 6.5% to around $2,619, reclaiming levels not seen since January.
• 207M+ non-empty wallets
• 40M+ ETH staked
• ~$50B DeFi TVL
• $143.7M ETH ETF inflows
• Whale activity picking up 🐋
But macro pressure is still there with higher rates and DXY above 100.
The big question now:
Can $ETH turn this rally into a sustained breakout? 👀

BTC at $80,400—have you been left behind?
Look at the surface first: volume contracted over the weekend, and retail traders are panicking again.
From Friday’s high of $81,900, it fell back to $80,400, down just over 1%. Weekend liquidity was thin, trading volume shrank, and the candlestick left an upper shadow. Many people saw it and immediately shouted: “It’s over, the rebound is finished—a dead-cat bounce confirmed.”
First: $470 million in shorts were liquidated—is this a dead-cat bounce?
Within 24 hours on Friday, $238 million in BTC shorts were liquidated, while short liquidations across the entire market exceeded $470 million. Meanwhile, spot ETFs saw $433 million in net inflows in a single day—Fidelity alone bought $310 million, with BlackRock adding $108 million.
Short sellers were carried out, while institutions were aggressively scooping up coins below.
A dead-cat bounce would not liquidate $470 million in shorts, nor would it prompt Fidelity to buy $300 million in one day.
Second: The Federal Reserve raised rates, but BTC only fell to $75,000 before V-ing back up.
On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points in a unanimous 12-0 vote. The dot plot showed one more hike this year, with the median rate at 4.1% by the end of 2026. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.94%, oil prices climbed above $100, and CPI stood at 3.4%—the macro environment could hardly be tighter.
But what about BTC? It only dipped to $75,000 after the decision, then was forcefully pulled back above $80,000 by buyers.
This shows that the bad news has been fully priced in. Rate hikes, high oil prices, and a Bank of Japan rate hike—all these negative factors have already been absorbed by BTC at $75,000.
Third: $80,000 is the 50-week moving average, and Sunday’s close will decide everything.
The daily chart tells you that BTC has already moved above the 50-day moving average ($73,190) and the 200-day moving average ($70,500). It is now fighting for the 50-week moving average, which happens to be around $80,000.
Friday’s high-volume bullish candle reclaimed $80,000, but the price pulled back on lower weekend volume. Whether the weekly candle can hold above $80,000 at Sunday’s close is the dividing line between bull and bear markets.
The bull-bear showdown—judge for yourself
On one side:
$470 million in shorts liquidated, with squeeze momentum still in play
$433 million in ETF inflows in a single day, pushing institutional cost basis up to $80,000
Above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with the medium-term structure intact
Saylor, Cathie Wood, and Raoul Pal are collectively bullish
On the other side:
The Federal Reserve raised rates, with one more hike expected this year
Oil above $100, CPI at 3.4%, and liquidity not loose
The CLARITY Act failed to pass the Senate, and regulatory uncertainty remains
Calacanis called it a “dead-cat bounce,” while $82,000 has failed three times
Resistance above: $81,700-$82,200 → $83,000-$86,000 (dense short zone)
Support below: $80,000 (50-week moving average) → $78,000-$78,500 → $76,300-$76,700
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
If the price retests $80,000-$80,200 and holds (with a long lower shadow or a high-volume bullish candle), cautiously enter a long position, with a stop-loss at $79,600 and a target of $81,500-$82,000. Add to the position on a breakout above $82,200, targeting $83,000-$85,000.
If it directly breaks below $80,000 on Monday with high volume, reverse and target $78,000-$76,500.
Swing traders:
Wait for confirmation from the weekly close. If $80,000 holds, get back in after the daily chart moves above $82,200, targeting $85,000-$86,000. If $80,000 breaks, reduce your position and wait to buy back around $76,000.
Long-term believers:
Blindly dollar-cost average below $80,000. Institutions’ cost basis is around $80,000—if you can buy cheaper than institutions, what are you afraid of? Hold on and wait for the rate-cut cycle to truly begin.
BTC right now is like gold in 2023—
Everyone was saying, “The rate-hike cycle isn’t over, stay away,” and then it quietly doubled.
You can hesitate at $80,000, but don’t forget:
The market always bottoms in despair, rises amid hesitation, and ends in euphoria.
You’re hesitating now, which means the top is not in yet.
What is your BTC cost basis?
At $80,000, will you dare to buy the dip or wait for a break below?#BTC重回80K #Gate广场中秋团圆局 #MSTR领涨纳指100 $BTC $$SOL

The call is $100k.
The work is surviving $83k.90% trade the headline.
10% trade the wall. Which side prints?

Not to brag, but the community has been around for almost a year now. Although there aren’t many members, I’m still pretty satisfied with how it’s going. I’m thinking of sending myself 666U as the group fee. 👍

UNI at $8.7—are you still willing to chase it?
Look at the surface first: it has gone crazy, but some people have started running for the exits.
It was still at $6 in mid-September, then shot straight to 9.4-9.5 on September 18-19, more than doubling in 30 days. Market cap: $5.4 billion, with 621 million tokens in circulation. The moving averages are bullishly aligned, and the price is far above the 20/50/200-day moving averages, so the trend is intact—but the position is extremely crowded, so crowded that it can barely breathe.
First: what exactly did the SEC's “innovation exemption” unleash?
The SEC allows eligible venues to trade tokenized U.S. stocks through permissioned AMMs/permissioned pools for five years without registering as traditional exchanges.
UNI was not named, but Uniswap v4 launched Permissioned Pools in July, with Superstate, Securitize, and Dowgo as partners—the architecture matches perfectly, so the market immediately priced it as “the compliant channel is open.”
Wall Street used to look down on DEXs, but now the SEC has opened the door itself. UNI has gone from a “regulatory outcast” to a “regulatory favorite.”
Second: but don't celebrate too soon—three signals are sounding the alarm.
Signal one: The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25bp to 3.75-4.00% on September 16, its first hike in more than three years. Inflation remains sticky due to oil prices, while the Clarity Act is stalled in the Senate. Normally, that is bearish for risk assets.
Signal two: After the huge volume on the 18th, trading volume has clearly contracted. Weekend conditions plus profit-taking do not support an immediate second major rally.
Signal three: The daily RSI had previously reached around 75 and was overbought, while CCI/Stoch were running hot. The more reasonable short-term path is to digest the 8.45-9.10 range first, rather than immediately rally another 20%.
Third: a “range” has appeared on the technical chart that must be taken seriously.
The daily chart shows that this is a major rally breaking away from a descending wedge that lasted nearly two years. The long bullish candle on the 18th broke out, the price surged to 9.4-9.5 on the 19th and closed with a long upper shadow, then pulled back to around 8.5 on the 20th. This is now a post-pulse pullback into a range.
Strong resistance: 9.35-9.52 (the wall formed by this cycle's high; failure to clear it creates a false-breakout risk)
Near resistance: 8.90-9.10 (the first hurdle for today's rebound)
Current price: 8.70 (temporary bull-bear dividing line)
Near support: 8.45-8.52 (today's low; losing it would accelerate the pullback)
Key support: 8.05-8.15 (the dividing line for whether the pullback is healthy)
Trend support: 7.70-7.85 (weekly-level support; a break would weaken this cycle's structure)
If the 4-hour chart forms a lower low and breaks below 8.45 on heavy volume, that would be the standard “second leg of a surge-and-retrace.”
The bulls and bears are facing off—you decide.
On one side:
SEC innovation exemption + Uniswap v4 Permissioned Pools: the compliance narrative has exploded
Whales withdrew 1.07 million tokens, reducing sell pressure on exchanges
UNIfication's burn mechanism, with protocol fees used for genuine buybacks
Tokenized-stock TVL has grown significantly over the past 30 days
Moving averages are bullishly aligned, and the trend remains intact
On the other side:
The Fed raised rates by 25bp, making the macro environment tighter
Thin weekend liquidity and heavy profit-taking pressure after the surge
A retreat from overbought RSI, with contracting volume not supporting an immediate major rally
A surge to 9.5 followed by a retreat; 9.35-9.52 is a hard wall
The most common way a news-driven token dies: positive news lands → price surges → 15-25% retracement the following week
Trading strategy
Scenario one: Bullish bias (trend intact, wait for a pullback)
Watch for stabilization at 8.45-8.55 (a 4-hour candle holds above it and then closes green), or a slightly deeper pullback to 8.10-8.20.
Stop-loss: For an entry at 8.45, place it below 8.25; for an entry at 8.15, place it at 7.85.
Targets: First 8.95-9.10, second 9.40-9.52. A confirmed move above 9.52 opens the way to 10.2-10.5, with a more distant narrative target around 12.
Scenario two: Short-term selling high and buying low (more suitable for current conditions)
Reduce exposure/hedge at 8.85-9.10, then buy again around 8.50.
Range invalidation conditions: a high-volume break below 8.45 or a high-volume breakout above 9.52.
Scenario three: Bearish shift/defense
If the 4-hour candle closes below 8.45 and the rebound fails to reclaim 8.60, treat the pulse as over, with pullback targets of 8.10 → 7.80.
If the daily candle closes below 7.80, the structure of this cycle's move from 6 must be reassessed.
UNI's fundamentals and regulatory narrative are indeed much better than before—that is what gave it the confidence to rise from 6 to 9.5.
But 8.7 is no longer “cheap”; it is the first pullback after a major rally.
You ask me whether it can still be chased?
I ask you in return:
You didn't get on board during the surge on the 18th, and now that it has pulled back, you don't dare buy—then you will chase after it breaks 9.52, and cut your losses again on the next pullback. How many times have you acted out this script?
At 8.7, are you willing to chase or wait for a pullback? #BTC重回80K #BTC重回80K #Gate广场中秋团圆局 $BTC $ETH $UNI