ETH at $2,750—are you chasing it?
Look at the surface first: yesterday it surged from $2,613 to $2,807, then pulled back to $2,750 today, up 12% in 7 days.
Retail is shouting, “It’s overbought and due for a pullback,” but look at the chart—the daily price is above all moving averages, MACD has formed a golden cross, RSI is 69, and volume contracted after expanding as the price pulled back. A healthy correction—don’t get shaken out.
First: the rate hike has landed, and the bad news is fully priced in.
On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 bps. The dot plot was hawkish, and new Chair Warsh said another hike could come this year. ETH was dumped from $2,370 to $2,430 that day, and then? Three days later, it bounced back to $2,807.
The CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate, ETFs saw outflows earlier, and a bunch of people shouted, “Regulation is finished.” Yet yesterday, ETF net inflows reached $270 million, led by BlackRock.
All the bad news is out, but instead of falling, the price rose. That’s what it means for bad news to be fully priced in.
Second: $190 million in shorts were liquidated, and whales are accumulating.
Short liquidations totaled $191 million yesterday. You’re cutting losses while whales are sweeping up supply.
BitMine (affiliated with Tom Lee) continues to accumulate, targeting 5% of the supply. The number of non-zero wallets hit a record 207 million, while ETH reserves on exchanges fell to multi-year lows.
Third: 43 million ETH is staked, and the liquid supply is drying up.
Around 43 million ETH is staked, accounting for 35% of the circulating supply. The entry queue is 13 times larger than the exit queue—those looking to stake are lining up, while very few want to leave.
Spot ETFs collectively hold 5.91 million ETH, accounting for 4.8% of the supply. The Glamsterdam upgrade is progressing, with stablecoin gas payments and quantum-resistance plans extending through 2029.
ETH is not trading on expectations—it is being locked up, hoarded, and absorbed onto institutional balance sheets.
The bull-bear showdown—judge for yourself
On one side:
ETF funds flowing back in, with $270 million in daily net inflows
$191 million in short liquidations, fueling a squeeze-driven rebound
43 million ETH staked, with exchange reserves at multi-year lows
Daily bullish moving-average alignment, with MACD golden cross
On the other side:
The Federal Reserve’s rate-hike cycle is not over, and the macro backdrop remains hawkish
RSI 69–72 indicates overbought conditions, requiring short-term consolidation
$2,786–$2,807 has rejected price three times, showing clear resistance
Still down more than 40% from the ATH of $4,946, with heavy overhead supply
Resistance above: $2,786 → $2,807 → $2,894 → $3,000
Support below: $2,716 → $2,626 → $2,537 (20EMA) → $2,500–$2,430
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
If the price stabilizes on a pullback to $2,720–$2,716 (4H hammer/engulfing pattern), go long with a small position, stop-loss at $2,690, and targets of $2,890–$3,000. If $2,716 breaks and a 4H close confirms it, go short with a small position, stop-loss at $2,755, and targets of $2,626–$2,537.
Swing traders:
Wait for the daily chart to hold above $2,807 before entering, with a stop-loss at $2,750 and a target of $3,000+. Half position now is the most comfortable approach—add on dips, chase on rises, and don’t panic.
Long-term believers:
Close your eyes and dollar-cost average below $2,500. With staking lockups, ETF inflows, and the upgrade narrative, the 2027 target is $4,000+. Don’t complain that it’s slow—it took 13 months to fall from $4,946 to $2,750, but it may take only 3 months to return from $2,750 to $4,000.
ETH right now is like Bitcoin in 2020—
Everyone is waiting for a crash, while institutions are quietly building positions.
You’re afraid of rate hikes; institutions are afraid they won’t be able to buy enough. You’re afraid of regulation; institutions are afraid their positions are too small.
At $2,750, are you brave enough to chase, or will you wait for a pullback?
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