Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

In August, I was still saying in the group that @Meta’s AI capex this round was a bottomless pit, and advised a friend not to chase the rally. He didn’t listen, and now he posts screenshots of Thursday’s +4.5% move in the group every day. I keep staring at my own message, wanting to delete it. More than a month has passed, so it can’t be unsent anymore.
Meta Connect on Thursday unveiled new hardware called Muse Charm. It looks a lot like a 1990s electronic pet, and lets you talk to Muse without taking out your phone. It launches in December, immediately sending the stock higher. September was up 36% month-on-month, its strongest month since 2013, and it was just one final push away from a $2 trillion market cap.
There was also a $1.8 billion legal settlement behind it, and sentiment with @Expedia的合作 recovered fairly quickly, but people are still uneasy about nearly $140 billion in AI capex.
The gossip is that @amazon把 banned Muse because Muse bought things on its website without disclosing its identity and also stored users’ login information. The two companies still do business with each other: banning one another while using the other’s chips to run AI workloads. Quite a divided way to do business.
Game stocks wobbled along with it @Roblox也说要上AI造世界的聊天机器人. Whenever something stirs in the market these past few months, it starts repricing the question of whether the engine is still useful.
The broader market is even messier. @Oracle因为数据中心电力供应可能延期 issued a force majeure notice, sending its stock down 4%. The old situation around the Strait of Hormuz pushed Treasury yields and oil prices up another notch.
The AI capex suspect is still the same company; Wall Street was simply willing to buy back in this month. My position hasn’t moved, though. Unsendable messages are much easier to deal with than positions you can’t exit.

Google chips are going to space.
On October 1, $SPCX Falcon 9 ignited, carrying $GOOGL four of the most powerful Trillium TPUs into space. Project Suncatcher.
Google wants to see whether its AI chips can survive in space.
There is no air convection in space, so heat can only be drawn to the satellite’s exterior through heat pipes, while radiators emit the heat into space as infrared radiation. That means the four TPUs have to be powered down after running for 15 minutes to cool off, then turned back on after a short break. For now, they can only run simple Gemini queries and collect space data.
In 2027, Google plans to launch two more satellites to test inter-satellite laser links. The goal is to have dozens or even hundreds of satellites connected to one another by laser. A distributed space data center—done!
The three major challenges facing AI data centers on Earth are electricity, land, and water. On top of that, local communities oppose building them, while AI continues to consume computing power voraciously. Google has calculated that if launch costs fall low enough, space-based computing could be cheaper than ground-based computing by the mid-2030s.
To escape Earth, space-based data centers are becoming a necessity!

The Semiconductor Rally Isn’t Over Yet! AMD’s Next Push Toward 700
1. Nvidia $NVDA
looks somewhat like an ascending triangle, which is slightly bullish. If the broader market wobbles again, another lower wave wouldn’t be a bad thing; that kind of level would actually be a better spot to add. Overall, I’m still bullish.
2. AMD $AMD
broke to a new high, with the initial main target at 690. Move the stop-loss higher. The stock made a new high, but RSI did not, which is called bearish divergence. A pullback is likely afterward, so hold for now.
3. TSMC $TSM
is challenging a new high, slightly slower than NVDA and AMD. On the surface, it’s still making new highs, but its upward momentum is becoming increasingly weak. The divergence is obvious, which often means the stock is already in the latter half of its move—not at the start of a major uptrend, but closer to the end.
4. Broadcom $AVGO
is relatively the weakest among the semiconductor stocks. For now, assume the direction can still be upward, with the key question being where the low will be. The pullback is already 40% from the high, and it could continue moving higher afterward. If this pullback isn’t over yet, it may still drop another leg.
5. Semiconductor ETF $SMH
For SMH, assume it can continue rising and challenge a new all-time high, with the first target at 781. If this is actually a false breakout and the structure has deteriorated, it could still drop further, toward 434.
The main scenario is a bullish move to new highs; the backup plan is to guard against another sharp drop. Don’t fully load up on the position.

$ADA is showing strength after bouncing from the $0.2338 support zone and reclaiming $0.24.
Now trading around $0.2479, the key resistance levels to watch are $0.2530 and $0.2617. On the downside, $0.2430 is the first important support, while $0.2338 remains the stronger level.
If $ADA holds above $0.2430 and breaks $0.2530, another move toward $0.2617 could come into focus.
Watching the next breakout closely.
#ADA #Cardano #Crypto #Altcoins #CryptoTrading

Ultimately, Guilin was simply ahead of its time.

Today’s AI U.S. stock information gap:
1. $META surged another 5%, setting a new high at 777, with its market cap nearing $2 trillion. Zuckerberg is launching Muse pendants and smart glasses, and partnering with Walmart on AI shopping.
2. $OpenAI is developing Codex Bot to go head-to-head with Grok Bot, and will soon launch a Muse competitor as well.
3. $ORCL plunged 3.5%! Oracle’s New Mexico AI data center is stuck in the approval process and may not even be completed by 2028. Profits will be pushed back, while loan pressure is mounting.
4. Musk cut the ribbon at the $TSLA Semi factory, which is dedicated to producing electric heavy-duty trucks, with a target annual capacity of 50,000 vehicles. The electric truck that has been delayed for nine years is finally here.
5. Weak countries have no diplomacy. Going abroad not only means getting held up by a Chinese corporate delegation, but also bringing along two pandas. Chengdu’s Pingping and Fushuang will be sent to the Atlanta Zoo.

Micron $MU will report earnings after market close on Wednesday. The stock has risen sevenfold in a year, is trading around 1,000, and its market cap has reached $1.2 trillion. Yet the valuation still doesn’t look expensive because the market has一直 been worried that once cyclical-industry capacity comes online in 2028, the stock will plunge on the spot.
Key points to watch in the earnings report:
1. Have long-term contract commitments increased?
Last quarter, the company signed 16 agreements with strategic customers, locking in at least $100 billion in revenue. Customers put down $18 billion in cash deposits, with each agreement locked in for five years. This time, the key is to listen for whether there are any new signings or renegotiations at higher prices.
2. Are prices still rising?
Last quarter, revenue surged 3.5-fold, but shipment volume increased only 3%. Price increases contributed almost all of the profit growth. That is the truth behind the windfall profits. This quarter, watch three figures: the average DRAM selling price, whether the gross margin can surpass 86%, and whether spot prices are still rising by double digits quarter over quarter. HBM’s premium is nearly gone. At the beginning of the year, HBM was priced at four times standard DRAM. Now it costs only 20 cents more per GB, while its 68% gross margin is actually lower than standard DRAM’s 91%. The so-called HBM moat is being reduced to its fundamentals by the pricing mechanism. What management says about this will be crucial.
3. Buybacks.
The company generated $18 billion in free cash flow last quarter and has more money than it knows what to do with. Management has already made it clear that buybacks will be the primary form of capital return. This time, listen for whether there are plans to expand the size of the buyback program.
The order fulfillment rate is still only 60%, while server-memory demand is expected to rise 80% in 2027. The supply shortfall won’t be filled even by 2028. The direction is right, and demand remains enormous. In the end, we’ll see how this plays out!

On the day Bybit was hacked for $1.5 billion last year, the hackers received mETH and stETH, converted everything into $ETH within a few hours, and then laundered it into Bitcoin through THORChain. More than $1 billion was successfully laundered within six months, and ultimately less than $90 million was recovered.
The most stolen asset worldwide is now cryptocurrency. I think this is a bug in decentralization. Cryptocurrencies should also be capable of being frozen; otherwise, they are just an ATM for North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. In the future, with AI assistance, the speed of hacker attacks and the scale of theft will only become increasingly terrifying.

Lisa Su’s $AMD has to be the most underrated stock at this table, right?
White House State Dinner Head Table Watchlist
1. AMD $AMD
Lisa Su, one of the best-value players in AI chips, competing with Nvidia through differentiation. It will take off with muse in the era of AI agents and has long been regarded as the leader of the second tier in AI.
2. Tesla $TSLA
Elon Musk, covering the entire chain from electric vehicles, energy storage, robotics, and autonomous driving to computing power in space—the biggest story of them all.
3. Apple $AAPL
Tim Cook, a cash cow with an exceptionally deep ecosystem moat. Its product cycles and services business remain stable, offering relatively greater certainty.
4. Nvidia $NVDA
Jensen Huang, the undisputed leader in AI computing power, with the deepest moat and strong order visibility—the core holding in this round of the tech rally.
Everyone is watching Huang, while smart money is quietly scooping up AMD.

In crypto, the news you see frequently includes:
- Major exchanges experiencing an annual hacking incident almost every year, involving hundreds of millions in losses
- KOLs getting into physical fights or arranging fights offline
- Exchange bosses trading insults from afar
- Mysterious... cases involving top VC partners or billionaires
There really is a chaotic beauty to the sense that tomorrow is never guaranteed, you have to stay on edge, and you may not even have enough to eat after your last meal.

Don’t panic over the Bitcoin correction.
BTC is cooling off after a strong move. Key levels:
• $81K–$82K → first support
• $78K → Weekly MA 50
• $75K → major support
• ETH → $2,550–$2,350
As long as $BTC holds $78K, the bigger trend remains constructive.
If $83K is lost, the bull-trap risk increases.
Trade carefully. Buy the levels, not the fear.

I don't think we're in a full altcoin season yet.
Only 9 of the top 50 alts have done better than $BTC since its ATH.
$ZEC has been the biggest standout, while $HYPE , $XMR and $NEAR have also done well.
But if money starts moving into smaller alts, we could see more coins start catching up.
The altcoin market is getting interesting.

$BTC and $ETH look ready for a pullback 👀
Both are trading above their recent ranges.
Key areas to watch:
$BTC: $76K–$78K

$ETH: $2,350–$2,450
If these zones hold, October could bring the next bigger move. 🚀
Patience and confirmation first.

The 2026 altcoin market still looks heavily $BTC led.
The heatmap shows $ETH , $SOL , $XRP , $ADA & $DOGE staying broadly tied to Bitcoin through both the selloff and recovery.
Until correlations break lower for longer, this looks more like crypto beta than a true independent alt rotation.
@ForeDex_Global

NEAR at $4.5—would you dare chase it?
Look at the surface first: it has gone parabolic, but is starting to run out of breath.
It gained 60-90% over the past 7 days and doubled in 30 days, surging from $2 all the way to $4.8, with explosive 24-hour volume. But the daily RSI is already at 80, the price is far above EMA20 ($3.0-$3.1), and the $4.75-$4.80 highs faced resistance. It is now consolidating between $4.2 and $4.5. Overheated in the short term, but the weekly and monthly charts remain bullish.
First: NEAR Intents is seeing explosive volume. This is not a concept—it is real money.
Cumulative cross-chain volume has exceeded $30 billion, with a daily peak of more than $300 million and weekly volume of $800 million-$1 billion. Confidential Intents TVL has surpassed $70 million, triggering an incentive snapshot.
NEAR is no longer the L1 chain that only knows how to shout “high-performance L1.” It has become a monster combining chain abstraction, cross-chain execution, and private trading. 85% of revenue comes from the Intents layer, with protocol revenue used to buy back NEAR, for a 30% capture rate.
Second: Private perpetuals are live, directly connected to the Hyperliquid engine.
Around September 17, near com will enable private perpetuals by default, supporting one-click multi-chain fund entry while hiding sources and orders. It will also integrate Ondo’s tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs.
Whales and institutions can quietly build positions on-chain, and no one will know. This is a real demand.
Third: But after gaining 90% in 7 days, macro conditions are pouring cold water on it.
BTC is fluctuating and retreating between $83,000-$87,000, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed above 5%, and a stronger-than-expected PMI has boosted rate-hike expectations. Total crypto market capitalization is retreating, leverage is high, and traders are taking profits.
NEAR was previously able to decouple thanks to its own catalysts. But in the short term, it will be difficult to remain fully immune to a broader market pullback. Funding rates are relatively high, with longs paying, so chasing the rally is simply sending money to market manipulators.
You can judge the bull-bear battle yourself
On one side:
$30 billion in cumulative Intents volume, with real revenue used for buybacks
Private perpetuals + Ondo partnership, bringing institutional-grade products to market
Inflation reduced to 2.5%, 70% of Gas burned, fee switch in February 2026
Weekly and monthly bullish trends, breaking out of the $3.5-$3.8 consolidation range, with the trend accelerating
The founder’s AI background and the Agentic Economy narrative
On the other side:
Daily RSI at 80, overbought with divergence, and weakening short-term momentum
It failed to break through $4.75-$4.80 three times, showing strong resistance
Native on-chain activity is average, with revenue relying on a single Intents layer
Some TVL is linked to assets such as ZEC, creating correlation risk
If BTC breaks below $82,000, NEAR will most likely follow
Resistance above: $4.55-$4.60 → $4.75-$4.80 (previous high) → $5.00-$5.45
Support below: $4.20-$4.25 (short term) → $4.10 → $3.80-$4.00 (previous breakout zone)
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Wait for a pullback to $4.20-$4.25 to stabilize (a high-volume bullish candle or an hourly bottoming signal), then try a long with a small position, with a stop-loss at $4.05-$4.08. Take half off first at $4.75-$4.80. Chase only after a breakout above $4.80, with a stop-loss at $4.55, targeting $5.20-$5.45.
Swing traders:
Wait for the previous breakout zone at $3.85-$4.00 to confirm support before adding, targeting $5.20-$5.45. A more distant target of $6-$8 requires support from the broader market and continued explosive Intents volume. If it breaks below the key weekly level of $3.50-$3.60, the trend weakens and it is time to exit.
Long-term believers:
Accumulate in batches below $4.5, treating it as a “chain abstraction + AI + privacy” three-in-one monster to hold.
Bears/hedgers:
If a rebound to $4.55-$4.65 or $4.75 occurs on insufficient volume, short with a small position, place the stop-loss above the previous high, and target $4.20 or even $4.00.
The biggest risk: BTC breaking below $82,000. Once the decline accelerates, NEAR will follow without question.
NEAR now looks like SOL in 2021—
Everyone thought it was just an L1, but it became a monster combining chain abstraction + AI + privacy.
$4.5 is not the top; it is your last chance to accumulate in the $4 range.
At $4.5, would you dare get on board?#GateBTC现货交易量跻身前三 #BTC短线回调 #Gate广场中秋团圆局 $BTC $ETH $NEAR

Don’t panic over this Bitcoin correction.
After a strong rally, pullbacks are normal. The first support zone is $81K–$82K.
Bullish: Hold Weekly MA50 near $78K → broader trend remains intact.
Bearish: Lose $83K → bull trap risk rises, with $75K next.
For $ETH , watch $2,550–$2,350.
Leverage traders should stay cautious.
Spot investors with a long-term view may see corrections as better entry zones.

Would you dare chase LTC at $66?
Look past the surface first: the broader market is selling off, while LTC is surging against the trend.
BTC fell to $83,000, while ETH and SOL are both getting crushed. LTC, however, rallied from 59 to 69.5, spot trading volume exploded to $950 million, and futures OI surged to $500 million. The daily chart broke through the 64-65 resistance zone and moved above all moving averages. The old-school payment coin is coming back to life—don't miss out.
First: real money is moving on-chain, not just fake volume.
The Litecoin Foundation disclosed that adjusted economic transaction volume exceeded $1 billion in a single day, with about 17 million LTC transferred on-chain, an extremely high proportion of the circulating supply.
Spot volume was 3 times higher than on September 18, while futures OI rose simultaneously—spot absorption plus leverage entering the market, a typical capital ignition.
Second: ETF expectations are being quietly priced in.
Grayscale is advancing the conversion of LTC Trust into a spot ETF (LTCN/NYSE Arca), while Canary's LTC ETF also recorded net inflows in September. Fidelity Digital Assets emphasized that LTC produces blocks faster and is better suited for payments.
LTC is now “digital silver.” Once the ETF launches, institutional capital will pour in and its valuation will be directly repriced.
Third: the halving window is already counting down.
LTC has a maximum supply of 84 million, with 77.64 million in circulation and 92.4% already mined. The next halving is expected around July 2027, reducing the reward from 6.25 to 3.125.
Historically, capital prices in the halving 6-12 months in advance. We have just entered that window. With a market cap of only $5.2 billion, it ranks in the low 20s and looks dirt cheap relative to BTC and ETH.
The bulls and bears are battling—you decide
On one side:
$1 billion in daily on-chain transfers, with 17 million LTC changing hands
Grayscale + Canary ETF efforts underway, opening the institutional channel
The 6-12-month pre-halving pricing window has opened
Spot volume tripled, futures OI surged, and real money is entering
On the other side:
Daily RSI at 72-80, with stochastic indicators near extreme levels; the short term is severely overheated
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is 5.11%, rate-hike expectations are rising, and macro conditions are draining liquidity
BTC fell to $83,000; if it breaks below $82,000 again, LTC will struggle to remain unaffected
At $66, the fattest part of the move has already been captured, making the risk-reward of chasing longs extremely poor
Resistance above: 69-71 (today's high + round-number level) → 74-76
Support below: 64.5-65.5 (breakout retest) → 61-62.5 (this morning's launch platform) → 58-59 (trend defense)
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Wait for a pullback to 64.5-65.5 before entering, with a stop-loss at 61 (exit if the daily close breaks below it), and take half off at the first target of 69-71. If there is no strength above 69 and the 4-hour chart shows a long upper wick, short with a small position, targeting a return to 65-66. If it holds above 71 with rising volume, admit defeat immediately.
Swing traders:
Wait for a daily close above 64 before entering. A pullback to 61.8-62.8 is a better accumulation zone. Target 74-76 and use a trailing take-profit to stay in the trade.
Long-term believers:
Blindly dollar-cost average below 60, betting on the ETF launch plus continued capital inflows before the halving. Look for $100+, but remember—the halving is a 2027 event, so don't start fantasizing about $400 now.
At the current price of 66, test with at most 20-30% of your position, saving a heavy position for a pullback to 65/62. If you're in profit, first move your cost basis to around 64.8 to avoid giving back all your gains in a 17% price swing.
LTC now looks like Bitcoin in 2020—
99% of people thought “old coins have no story,” but once the ETF process advanced, institutions bought it aggressively.
On the day 71 breaks through, you'll realize:
It wasn't that LTC was incapable—it was that you chased the top of a huge green candle.
At 66, would you dare chase it?#GateBTC现货交易量跻身前三 #BTC短线回调 #Gate广场中秋团圆局 $BTC $ETH $LTC

BTC at 83,400—are you panicking?
Look at the surface first: On September 21, a big bullish candle surged to 87,300, a new eight-month high, and you were so excited you couldn't sleep. On the 22nd, it pulled back after rising; on the 23rd, it touched 87,200 again before plunging, and today it went straight to 83K. It fell 1.4%-2.8% in 24 hours, and the group chat is full of “it's crashing, it's crashing.”
The 50-day moving average has just crossed above the 200-day moving average—a golden cross. The medium-term moving-average system is bullish. It is currently testing the 83K-83,500 area, which is a pullback confirmation of the previous breakout, not a one-way collapse.
First: U.S. Treasury yields are at 5.11%—are you scared? But BTC is not interest rates' dog.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 5.11% on Wednesday, touching 5.13% intraday, its highest level since 2007. The probability of a rate hike has surged to 70%, and some are even pricing in four cumulative rate hikes by mid-2027.
BTC's 90-day correlation with U.S. Treasury yields is about -0.18, close to zero. It is simply not a rate-sensitive asset.
Rising yields suppress risk appetite in the short term, that's true. But over the medium to long term, BTC follows its own narratives: the halving, institutions, and fiat depreciation.
Second: ETFs are buying every day, and your coins are being quietly taken away.
ETF net inflows were $999 million on September 21, $715 million on the 22nd, and another $347 million on the 23rd. Cumulative inflows over the past five trading days reached $2.65 billion. Cumulative net inflows exceeded $57 billion, with AUM of approximately $108-111 billion.
The average ETF holding cost is around $81,000-$82,000. At the current 83,400, most ETF holders are sitting on unrealized gains.
Strategy continues to increase its holdings, miners are pivoting to AI computing, and whales are accumulating during the decline.
Third: Tomorrow, $15.9 billion in options expire, and volatility could explode.
On Friday, September 25, approximately $15.9 billion worth of BTC options on Deribit will expire, accounting for 37% of the platform's outstanding BTC options. Calls dominate, with strikes concentrated at 85K, 90K, and 100K, while the theoretical Max Pain level is lower.
Market makers need to hedge, which could trigger sharp volatility.
The bull-bear battle—judge for yourself.
On one side:
U.S. Treasury yields are surging, the rate-hike probability is 70%, and the macro environment is unfavorable.
The probability of an October rate hike is rising, putting pressure on risk assets.
Options expiry could amplify volatility, with a high risk of sharp wicks.
On the other:
ETF inflows reached $2.65 billion over the past five days, with institutional costs at $81,000-$82,000.
The 50/200-day moving-average golden cross remains intact, and the medium-term structure has not broken down.
There is still 34% upside to the ATH of 126,200.
Whales are accumulating, and long-term holders are providing cost support.
Resistance above: 84,500-85,000 → 86,000-86,500 → 87,000-87,300 (previous high) → 90,000
Support below: 82,800-83,000 (critical line) → 82,000-82,500 → 81,000 → 77,000 (medium-term bottom)
Hold 82,800, confirm the pullback, and the rebound can continue. A high-volume break below 82,800 would put the short-term target at 82,000-81,000.
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
If a long lower wick and a high-volume bullish candle appear at 82,800-83,500, try a small long position, with a stop-loss below 82,800 and a target of 84,500-85,000. If it breaks below 82,800 on high volume and holds below it, take a short-term bearish stance, targeting 82,000-81,000, with a stop-loss above 83,800.
Medium-term players:
The medium-term structure has not broken down, so accumulate on dips and do not chase highs. Stabilizing at 81,000-83,000 and reclaiming 85,000 would open the way for a retest of 87,000-90,000. Reassess only if a weekly close confirms a break below 77,000.
Long-term believers:
Historically, BTC below 83,000 has always been discounted. ETFs are buying, supply is contracting after the halving, and the institutional allocation thesis has not changed. Don't let short-term macro noise scare you out of the market.
BTC right now is like March 2020—
Everyone was terrified by macro panic while institutions quietly built positions. You are watching the candlesticks; institutions are watching your coins.
Options expire tomorrow, so don't panic over a sharp wick. BTC at 83,000 is much cheaper than at 87,000.
At 83,000, will you dare to add to your position or cut your losses? #GateBTC现货交易量跻身前三 #BTC短线回调 #Gate广场中秋团圆局 $BTC $ETH $SOL

ZEC at $1,470—dare to buy the dip?
First, the surface: Over the past 30 days, ZEC surged from 500 to 1,680, pushing its market cap into the top ten at No. 9, or $25 billion. Today it pulled back 8-9%, with a 24-hour low of 1,462-1,478 and rising trading volume. This is the first decent pullback after the parabolic rise. The 4-hour and 1-hour charts are already oversold, RSI has plunged from highs, and MACD has formed a death cross. A short-term rebound is likely, but the daily chart has not finished correcting.
First: The ETF is not just news—the institutional channel is already open
The Grayscale ZCSH ETF has been live for one month, with AUM surging to $890-910 million, nearing $1 billion. A 3-for-1 split is also scheduled for September 30, directly cutting the entry threshold.
21Shares' first physically backed ZEC ETP in Europe will list in Paris and Amsterdam on September 22.
Paradigm disclosed its holdings, and Matt Huang publicly said: ZEC is Bitcoin's privacy complement.
Second: The NU7 upgrade is not empty talk—it is hard-core technology being implemented
The testnet is scheduled for October 6, with a mainnet target of November 5.
The core point is simple: block time will drop from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, tripling the confirmation speed of private transactions.
What does this mean?
Private transfers that used to take over a minute can now be completed in 25 seconds
Merchants, payments, and cross-border settlement can finally be used
The halving mechanism remains, and supply will continue to tighten
Third: The shielded pool has locked up $7.3 billion, and the circulating supply is disappearing
The shielded pool's share has reached 29%, or about 4.92 million ZEC, worth $7.3 billion.
These coins basically do not enter exchanges—they are locked up.
The total supply is 21 million, the same as BTC, with the next halving in 2028. DCG's Fortitude has expanded its mining credit to $50 million and plans to buy 9,000 Z15 Pro units.
Miners are accumulating, institutions are buying, and the shielded pool is locking up supply.
The bull-bear showdown—judge for yourself
On one side:
Grayscale ETF AUM is nearly $1 billion, with a 3-for-1 split lowering the entry threshold
21Shares' European ETP has listed, opening the institutional channel
The NU7 upgrade's mainnet is scheduled for November, making privacy confirmations 3x faster
The shielded pool has locked up $7.3 billion, and the circulating supply continues to shrink
Up 3x in one month, the trend is still upward
On the other side:
The short-term rise has been too steep, with massive profit-taking pressure
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25bp on September 16; the dot plot was hawkish, and another hike may come this year
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is nearing 5%, while BTC plunged from $87,000 to $83,000-84,000
Longs are paying funding rates, OI is falling, and leveraged longs are beginning to unwind
On-chain daily transaction volume is still only a few thousand, and real-world use remains niche
Resistance above: 1,550-1,580 (EMA20 + retracement level) → 1,670-1,680 (previous high)
Support below: 1,450-1,440 (0.618 retracement + high-volume zone) → 1,425 → 1,400 → 1,380
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
If 1,440-1,460 holds and stabilizes, with a hammer or high-volume bullish candle appearing, cautiously go long with a stop-loss at 1,420 and a target of 1,520-1,550.
If 1,440 breaks decisively and the 1-hour close confirms it, cautiously go short with a target of 1,380-1,400 and a stop-loss at 1,480. Do not short heavily; the fundamentals have not collapsed, and ETF funds could provide support at any time.
Medium-term players:
The ideal buying zone is 1,380-1,420, or wait until NU7 approaches in late October before reassessing.
Long-term believers:
If you believe privacy is a necessity, and that everyone needs a fig leaf in the age of AI surveillance, then ZEC is your ticket. The shielded pool has locked up $7.3 billion, miners are expanding capacity, and institutions are entering. If it falls below 1,400, buy in batches with your eyes closed.
ZEC now looks like ETH in 2021—
Rising from the hundreds to the thousands, pulling back 30% along the way as everyone shouted, “The top is in,” only for NU7 to go live and the ETF to be approved, sending it soaring and leaving you questioning reality.
But this time is different: ZEC has no Vitalik and no ecosystem—only privacy and scarcity. It rises like crazy, and it also falls brutally.
Can 1,440 hold? Are you buying the dip or running for the hills? #GateBTC现货交易量跻身前三 #BTC短线回调 #Gate广场中秋团圆局 $BTC $ETH $ZEC

UNI at $8.8—did you capitulate?
First, the surface: falling from 10.9 to 8.8 means a 19% pullback, but on the monthly chart it rose from 4.2 to 10.9, more than doubling. Its 24h decline is clearly larger than BTC's, showing the high-beta nature of altcoins. The daily chart is still in an ascending channel, but the 4-hour chart has weakened. The long upper wick at 10.9 marked the climax top. Bullish medium term, but don't rush to buy the dip short term.
First: UNI is no longer a vaporware token—it has started burning money
The Fee Switch is live, protocol fees are flowing into TokenJar, and UNI is being burned in exchange for yield. Market translation: the higher the trading volume, the faster UNI is burned. Hayden's stated annualized burn rate exceeds 2.5
UNI has gone from “governance vaporware” to “protocol equity,” and this repricing is real. But from $4 to 10.9, the market has already priced in the good news expected over the next three months.
Second: the SEC has opened the door, CME is launching futures, and institutional access is opening up
Around September 17, the SEC's “innovation exemption” led the market to view Uniswap's Permissioned Pools and v4 Hooks as a compliant RWA trading layer. On the day Circle Arc went live, Uniswap deployed its full suite, with first-day trading volume exceeding that of Robinhood Chain on its first day. CME plans to launch UNI futures.
But this is an emotional accelerator, not already-realized profits. The compliance narrative can drive prices up, but it can also cause a sell-off if regulators turn hostile.
Third: a technical signal has emerged that must be taken seriously
Trading volume expanded significantly on the day of 10.9, and the pullback day also saw volume—this is profit-taking, not a low-volume decline.
Two common paths from here: trade sideways between 8.5–9.5 before choosing a direction, or take another leg down to 7.6–8.0 to flush out leverage.
Near-term support: 8.50–8.70 (the September 21–22 low zone)
Next lower: 8.00
Strong support: 7.60–7.80 (the post-September 18 breakout retest zone)
Near-term resistance: 9.20–9.50 → 10.00 → 10.80–11.00
The bulls and bears are in a showdown—you decide
On one side:
Fee Switch is live, with real money being burned
SEC compliance opening + Circle Arc + CME futures
DEX leader, with TVL of about 3.7 billion, and v4 volume exceeding v3
On-chain data shows million-level UNI withdrawals, temporarily reducing supply
On the other side:
The rise from 4.2 to 10.9 was too large, so a 19% pullback may not be enough
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25bp in September, and a hawkish dot plot is weighing on risk assets
BTC is ranging between $83,000–$85,000, and UNI is following broader-market volatility
The sustainability of Robinhood Chain's revenue is questionable; tokens flowing back in from high-level withdrawals would provide reverse fuel
Trading strategy
Already holding a long position:
Reduce your position to a level you can sleep with; total risk should not exceed 1.5%–2% of principal
Move the stop-loss to below 8.45
Reduce by 1/3 on a rebound to 9.3–9.5, then reduce again at 10.0
Flat and looking to go long:
Plan A: if 8.50–8.70 holds on declining volume and the 4h candle closes with a lower wick or bullish engulfing pattern, enter in batches, stop-loss at 8.35, targets 9.3/10.0
Plan B: after breaking below 8.5, watch whether 7.70–8.00 is quickly reclaimed; that is the launch zone for the main uptrend, with a stop-loss at 7.45
If 7.6 is also decisively breached and cannot be reclaimed, the pullback has escalated in severity—stay flat for now
Looking to short/hedge:
Only suitable for short-term trades, not for “shorting UNI to zero because its fundamentals have deteriorated”
If it rebounds to 9.3–9.5 and shows bearish divergence on the 1h chart, try a small short position, stop-loss at 9.65, targets 8.7/8.5
Shorts above 10.0 should be extremely small, as news can trigger another sharp move at any time
Scenario analysis:
Strong consolidation: hold 8.5 and reclaim 9.3 → buy the dip and hold, target 10–10.8
Continued shakeout: lose 8.5, then find support at 7.7–8.0 → that would be a better entry for adding
Trend breakdown: daily close below 7.5 → close long positions and wait until 6.5–7.0 before reconsidering
UNI now looks like ETH in 2021—
From no one believing in it to everyone chasing it, from 4 to 10.9, you complained it was too slow; from 10.9 to 8.8, you complained it was too fast.
You're not trading crypto; you're betting against your own emotions.
At 4, you complained it had no narrative; at 10.9, you complained it had risen too fast; at 8.8, you fear it will go to zero.
At 8.8, will you buy the dip or capitulate? #GateBTC现货交易量跻身前三 #BTC短线回调 #Gate广场中秋团圆局 $BTC $ETH $UNI