Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

Tonight’s nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show 90,000 new jobs. I’ll be watching for a print in the 80,000–100,000 range.
The Reuters survey expects 90,000, the Dow Jones survey expects 84,000, and this week’s ADP report also came in at 90,000. Compared with last month’s 162,000, I’m more inclined to see this as a cooling labor market, but not one that has reached the point of stalling.
However, a decline doesn’t automatically mean bullish news—the market is already expecting one.
To help fuel a rebound in BTC and ETH, wages will also need to be considered if the headline figure meets expectations: if average hourly earnings rise just 0.2% month over month and the unemployment rate holds steady at 4.1%, I would view that combination as somewhat bullish.
So, if job growth comes in line with expectations, wages may be what determines tonight’s surprise.

Hong Kong stocks are really trash.
Based on the principles of asset allocation, I bought some Tencent at the beginning of the year as a conservative position that I “thought was relatively low risk” (but actually wasn’t).
It turned into an economic thief, stealing my coins every day.

Tonight’s nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show 90,000 new jobs, and I’m mainly watching for a reading between 80,000 and 100,000.
The Reuters survey expects 90,000, the Dow Jones survey expects 84,000, and ADP also came in at 90,000 this week. Compared with last month’s 162,000, I’m more inclined to see this as a cooling labor market, but not one that has reached the point of stalling.
However, a decline doesn’t necessarily mean bullish news—the market is already expecting a slowdown.
To add fuel to a rebound in BTC and ETH, wages will still matter even if the headline figure comes in line with expectations: if month-over-month hourly earnings fall to 0.2% and the unemployment rate holds steady at 4.1%, I would view that combination as somewhat bullish.
So, if payroll growth meets expectations, wages may be what determines tonight’s surprise.

Trump is holding the third TRUMP coin dinner.
As soon as the news broke, TRUMP rose from $2.05 to $2.25, up 10%.
First dinner: April 2025.
After the announcement, TRUMP surged from around $9 to $14.40, a 60% gain. The market went crazy—the “dine with the president” narrative was fully priced in.
The day after the dinner ended, the price returned to $14.25.
Over the following 24 hours, it fell another 14%, dropping to $13.
Decrypt examined Solscan wallet data: of the top 25 VIP wallets, only 8 still held TRUMP the day after the dinner.
The other 17 transferred their tokens to exchanges shortly after the group photo session ended.
Of the 32 VIPs, 24 chose to fully exit after being in the same room as the president.
Second dinner: April 2026.
The same script, with worse data.
Trading volume plunged from $12.9 billion to $1.4 billion, an 89% decline.
Median VIP holdings fell from $3.28 million to $539,000, down 84%.
The price rebounded from $2.90 to $4.05—then completely gave back the gains by the April 14 competition deadline, returning to $2.88.
On the day of the dinner, TRUMP fell to $2.53 during Trump’s speech, down about 16% from the previous day.
On-chain data shows that nearly 40% of dinner VIPs had already sold out before the event began.
The FT’s tracking showed that 16 of the 25 VIP wallets completely emptied their holdings after winning. Of those wallets, 22 did not exist on-chain before the competition began.
Put the two sets of data together, and the pattern is obvious.
First time: News drives a 60% gain → peaks on the day of the dinner → VIPs sell out → price falls below its starting point.
Second time: News drives a 40% gain → gains are erased at the competition deadline → price falls 16% on the day of the dinner → trading volume collapses 89%.
Third time: News drives a 10% gain → already back down to around $2.14.
Pay attention to this trend:
The first time, the market was still willing to pay a 60% premium for the “dine with the president” story.
The second time, the premium shrank to 40%, and the price could not even hold through the day of the dinner.
The third time, the premium is only 10%, and it was given back within half an hour.
The narrative is decaying. And more people are realizing that this is a distribution window.
Why will this pattern inevitably repeat?
Because the TRUMP coin itself produces nothing.
No cash flow, no network effects, no technological moat. Its “value” depends entirely on attention.
What is the dinner really? A peak in attention.
And in an asset with no fundamental support, a peak in attention = a peak in liquidity.
A peak in liquidity = the best time to sell.
The rules were written long ago: VIP eligibility is calculated based on time-weighted holdings from September 30 to November 12.
To qualify, you must hold the tokens before the snapshot.
Once the snapshot passes, you no longer need to hold them.
Snapshot day is the starting gun for distribution.
The first two times, most people ran after the gun went off.
What is different about the third time?
One detail is worth noting.
The organizers explicitly wrote this time: “No attendee will have the opportunity to meet privately with the president.”
The first two times, people at least still held out hope of “being able to say a few words to Trump.” This time, the organizers directly killed that expectation.
They know the previous group was disappointed. They are managing expectations.
But the fact that they are managing expectations itself shows one thing:
The core appeal of this event is being downgraded from “seeing the president” to “taking photos and posting them on Twitter.”
And “taking photos and posting them on Twitter” is not worth spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to maintain a position in a meme coin with no fundamentals.
If you currently hold TRUMP, or are considering buying.
Remember the on-chain conclusion from the first two times:
The real winners were those who sold after the announcement but before the snapshot date.
They took their profits—and, if you look at the first set of data, many of them did not attend the dinner at all. They simply sold their invitations.
The dinner itself creates no value.
It creates a liquidity window for distribution.
To summarize in one sentence.
Trump’s dinner invitation may be an expensive “sell signal.”
The price rises when the announcement is made because people are buying the “story.”
The price falls after the snapshot date because those who qualified are selling their “positions.”
Those who bought the story paid money.
Those who sold their positions collected money.
The third invitation is already on its way. November 12 snapshot, November 22 dinner. #OneGate见证计划 #核心PCE与GDP终值 #Marvell涨4.5% $BTC $TRUMP $WLFI

My One Gate moment: Hold with ease. Together, let’s witness the biggest evolution in Gate’s 13-year history. The gateway to borderless finance. #Gate #OneGate #HoldAnything https://www.gate.com/zh/activities/everything-money-ceremony?ref_type=165&ch=8138&ref=VFgWXV8&utm_cmp=BIPdAc5p

Recently, I think diesel is worth a closer look.
If crude oil prices fall, do transportation and production costs necessarily decline along with them?
With refineries damaged and transportation disrupted, compounded by countries prioritizing domestic supply, the diesel shortage may be harder to ease than the crude oil market itself.
What concerns me more is the downstream transmission: rising costs for logistics, agriculture, and manufacturing squeeze corporate profits, while inflation remains stubbornly high.
If this transmission persists, rate cuts will become more difficult, and concerns about further rate hikes will also be slow to fade.

$MU is down 1.67% intraday, narrowing from the more than 3% decline at one point in premarket trading.
A lot of people saw gross margin drop from 87% to 86.25% and concluded, “That’s it, Micron can’t go any higher.”
CEO Sanjay rushed onto TV to explain: part of employee incentives will roll into next fiscal quarter’s costs, making the figure look lower. Believe it or not.
The CFO said the first fiscal quarter will be the floor for 2027 gross margin, after which it will rise quarter by quarter—just not as aggressively as before.
Earnings are solid, the price target continues to be raised, and the key point is that capacity still won’t be able to achieve supply-demand balance in 2027. The risk lies in the second half of 2028.

NEAR at $5—did you chase the top?
Up 180% in 30 days, Bitwise ETF pulled in $50 million in two days, and Intents cross-chain volume reached $32 billion—but just now, the price crashed from $5.5 back to $4.74, down over 9% in 24 hours, with volume surging. Is this really the “ETF bull market coming back to pick you up,” or are market makers starting to distribute after doubling in September?
First, the surface picture: the good news landed, but the price fell instead of rising.
The Bitwise spot ETF (NRR) opened on NYSE Arca on September 29–30, with $36 million flowing in on the first day and $14 million on the second. Its fee is 0.75%, and it even stakes its holdings. Sounds great? But after the price was pulled from $1.9 to $5.5, it began giving back gains at the highs. The daily chart is retreating from overbought levels, the 4-hour chart is weak, and BTC is sitting sideways at $83,000. Every indicator is asking the same question: Is $5 the starting point or the finish line?
First: the ETF is real, but its inflow slope is already heading downhill.
$36 million on day one and $14 million on day two—the inflow pace was cut by 60% outright.
Sounds fine? Let me tell you what that means:
The ETF channel is open, but institutions are not rushing in. Total inflows of $50 million against a $6.5 billion market cap amount to less than 1%. Compared with the billions Bitcoin ETFs attracted in their first week, NEAR’s scale is “testing the waters,” not “aggressive accumulation.”
The fund narrative packages NEAR as an AI agent settlement layer—the story is convincing, but the money has not followed.
Second: Intents has real volume, but fee-based buybacks are a drop in the bucket.
Cumulative cross-chain volume has reached $30–32 billion across more than 30 chains, with daily volume hitting $300 million in mid-September. Protocol fees have been used to buy back NEAR on the open market since February 2026, and there are indeed tokens in the multisig wallet.
In plain English:
This is one of the few “usage → token” loops that makes sense. It is not pure vaporware; real transactions are running.
But note—the buyback scale remains tiny relative to the $6.5 billion market cap. On-chain fees cover a pitifully small share of the market cap. The $5 you are paying now buys the expectation of “continued ETF inflows + another acceleration in Intents,” not current cash flow.
Narrative premium > real revenue. This is a common problem for all L1s, and NEAR is no exception.
Third: chain abstraction is a good story, but anyone can seize the AI agent narrative.
What NEAR is selling now is not TPS, but chain abstraction and Intents. Sounds sophisticated? But in the AI agent settlement layer sector, Solana is making the pitch, Base is making the pitch, and any L1 can jump in.
Sustainability depends on weekly volume, not a single-day peak. Is that $300 million in daily volume from mid-September still there? Open the on-chain data and you will know.
You decide the bull-bear battle
On one side:
The Bitwise ETF is live, and the institutional channel genuinely exists
Intents cross-chain volume exceeds $30 billion, and the buyback loop is working
Circulating supply is 1.31 billion, with market cap/FDV close to 1 and limited unlock pressure
Inflation is capped at 2.5%, staking yield is 4.5%, and the token structure is clean
Up 180% in 30 days, with the trend aligned bullishly
On the other side:
The ETF inflow slope has plunged, and institutions are not rushing in
Buybacks are a drop in the bucket against a $6.5 billion market cap
September has already brought nearly a 2x gain; buying at $5 means buying the expectation of “continued acceleration”
The AI agent narrative can easily be taken by other L1s
If BTC breaks below $82,600, a high-beta token like NEAR will break structure first
The key level is $5.00—not a bargain.
Resistance above: $5.30–$5.40 (today’s lost midpoint) → $5.50–$5.58 (this cycle’s supply zone) → only a decisive move above $5.60 puts $6.00–$6.50 in play
Support below: $4.74–$4.80 (today’s low zone) → $4.50–$4.55 (the September 29 platform) → $4.00–$4.20 (the step before acceleration) → $3.50–$3.60 (deep retracement zone)
$5.00 is a psychological round-number level, not a discount zone. Holding $4.50 means the main rally is merely taking a breather; a daily close below $4.50 means treating it as a deep retracement in the short term.
Trading strategy (no fluff)
Aggressive:
Test a long with a small position around $5.00, with a stop-loss at $4.72. First target: $5.30; second target: $5.50. Take half off at $5.30. Do not add leverage at the round-number level—the ETF inflow has already slowed.
Conservative:
Wait for $4.50–$4.80 before considering a long, with a stop-loss at $4.28. The better entry is $4.00–$4.20; if it does not reach there, hold a small position and wait. Better to miss out than chase at $5.5.
Breakout:
Only consider chasing the second leg after a high-volume hold above $5.60 and a pullback that holds $5.40, targeting $6.00–$6.50. Abandon a false breakout immediately; do not get emotionally attached to the trade.
Bears:
Shorting into the current move can easily get squeezed by ETF inflows. Only consider flipping short after a daily close below $4.50 on heavy volume, initially targeting $4.20 and $4.00.
Position sizing: Risk no more than 2% of total capital per trade, with leverage limited to 3–5x. This is not investment advice; act according to your own risk tolerance.
NEAR now looks like SOL in 2021—
The story is compelling and the volume is real, but the price has already priced in too many expectations.
The day $5.60 is confirmed, you will slap your thigh and say, “I should have chased it.”
The day $4.50 breaks, you will be glad you did not take a heavy position at $5.
Staying alive until the confirmation signal matters a hundred million times more than betting on direction at a round-number level.#OneGate见证计划 #核心PCE与GDP终值 #Marvell涨4.5% $BTC $ETH $NEAR

If you’re in a game where you have no edge, the best strategy is actually to go all in.
Going all in directly can actually bring your odds of winning close to 50%.
When you have no edge, every extra minute means paying another round of costs and suffering more random losses. Time is the enemy.
Once you gain an edge, quickly switch to a Kelly criterion approach, control your position size, manage risk properly, and use compounding to maximize your gains.
It’s like when ordinary people are just starting out with no resources or connections. If you pursue a steady, long-term approach at that point, you’ll ultimately be ground down by the system.
The way to break through is to go all or nothing and bet on one high-intensity critical hit.
That is the underlying logic of games.

$1,390 ZEC—would you dare buy the dip?
Three failed attempts to break through 1670, and today's rebound to 1490 was smashed back to where it started; over $1.81 million in long positions liquidated in 4 hours—this isn't a shakeout, it's a meat grinder. You think it's a pullback, but the lower edge of the range is actually sharpening its knife.
First, the surface: the positive catalysts are still there, but the price has stopped rising.
After peaking at 1697, it fell to 1360 before stabilizing, rebounded to 1494, and then dropped back to 1390 today. Down slightly over 24 hours, down 5-7% over 7 days, but still up 66% over 30 days. Market cap: $23.7 billion, ranked No. 10. Trading volume has contracted compared with the spike on the 27th, a typical pattern of using turnover to wash out leverage. The daily chart has pulled back from overbought territory, while short-term moving averages are flattening and tilting downward. All indicators are saying one thing: 1390 is sitting at the lower edge of the range; if it fails to hold, a deep correction is next.
First: this isn't negative news; it's a leverage washout.
ZEC fell from 1449 to 1392 over 4 hours, with $1.81 million in long positions liquidated in the same hour and almost no short liquidations. This is leverage being cleared out after a spike and retracement, not a new blowup.
In plain English:
You chased longs at 1490 and are now buried. It's not that ZEC is weak; your leverage is too high. The market just used $1.81 million to tell you: chasing longs at the top of the range is simply handing money to market manipulators.
The same script played out three times at 1670: each time, the bulls charged first, then got pushed back down. The fourth time? Don't rush to bet on it—first see whether 1360 can hold.
Second: the NU7 testnet is on October 6, just a few days away.
The code completion target is September 30, the testnet is scheduled for October 6 (height 4465026), mainnet go/no-go is on October 20, and the mainnet target is November 5: 25-second block times, removal of v4/Sprout, and the halving retained.
Sounds impressive? Let me tell you where the risks are:
The upgrade narrative is a double-edged sword. Expectations are fully priced in, so a delay would mean a sharp drop. If the testnet is delayed or October 20 brings a no-go, expectations will be hit first in the short term. 25-second block times won't increase issuance because the block subsidy will be cut by two-thirds at the same time—which is a good thing, but the market only cares whether the transition can happen on schedule.
Don't treat the upgrade as a lifeline; it could also become a death sentence.
Third: the ETF narrative has lost momentum.
The ZCSH 3-for-1 split has gone live, with assets of approximately $900 million, accounting for 3.5% of the total. European ETPs are expanding, but they are merely channels, not new purchases today. The ETF only holds transparent addresses.
Understand?
Privacy coin ETFs only touch transparent addresses. Institutions simply cannot access the roughly 30% of supply in the shielded pool. You bought ZEC for the “privacy narrative,” but the ETF is buying transparent ZEC—it's like ordering a bowl of beef noodles and receiving only noodles, with the beef at the next table.
An ETF is a channel, not demand. Don't treat it as a lifeline.
Bulls versus bears—you decide
On one side:
Total supply: 21 million; the scarcity thesis is solid
The shielded pool accounts for roughly 30% of supply; privacy is a genuine differentiator
The November upgrade + ETF channel—the story isn't dead
Still up 66% over 30 days; market cap in the top ten
On the other side:
Three rejections at 1670; 1490 was lost today
The leverage washout just liquidated $1.81 million, badly hurting the bulls
BTC is ranging at $83,000-$84,000; if it loses $82,600 again, ZEC will break structure first
1390 is 18% cheaper than 1697, but still not cheap compared with the 800-1000 launch zone from August-September
There is still the testnet and decision day before the upgrade; any delay is a landmine
The key level is 1390, just $30 above the 1360 lifeline.
Resistance above: 1440-1460 → 1490-1500 (today's lost zone) → 1540-1580 → 1670-1697 (the ceiling)
Support below: 1373 (today's low) → 1355-1360 (the September 29 lifeline) → 1290-1300 → 1180
Trading strategy
Aggressive:
Try a small long position around 1390, with a stop-loss at 1350. First target: 1440; second target: 1490. Take half off at 1440. Don't get greedy—going long at the lower edge of the range is licking blood off a knife's edge.
Conservative:
Wait for 1360-1375 to confirm before opening a long, with a stop-loss at 1288. An even better entry is 1290-1320. If it doesn't reach there, use a small position; don't force it.
Breakout:
Only consider chasing if price holds above 1500 on volume and holds 1460 on the retest, with targets at 1540 and 1620. Abandon a false breakout; don't become exit liquidity.
Bears:
If the rally to 1440-1490 lacks strength, take a small short on the pullback, with a stop-loss at 1520 and a target of 1360. Don't blindly short around 1360—that's the lifeline; wait for it to break.
Position sizing:
Risk no more than 2% of total capital per trade; 3-5x leverage is recommended. An intraday 6-8% swing is common, so don't bet on the fourth attempt with high leverage.
Risk-control priorities (memorize these)
If 1360 breaks on rising volume, look to 1290 and 1180 next; reduce your position first.
If BTC breaks below 82600 and accelerates downward, reduce ZEC exposure at the same time.
If the NU7 testnet is delayed or October 20 brings a no-go, expectations will be hit first in the short term.
ZEC now looks like a tightly stretched rubber band—
Three rejections at 1670, and today's rebound to 1490 was given back. At 1390, the move is to defend the lower edge, not go all-in on a new high.
Staying alive until 1360 breaks or 1500 holds is more important than betting on a fourth attempt with high leverage at the lower edge.
You're not buying the dip; you're catching a falling knife. Don't reach out until the knife hits the ground.#OneGate见证计划 #核心PCE与GDP终值 #Marvell涨4.5% $BTC $ETH $ZEC

From now on, don’t call it artificial intelligence anymore. AI is already out—these days, it’s called Superintelligence, or SI!
Calling superintelligence AI is like calling a car a horse-drawn carriage without the horse.

ETH at $2,705—what are you waiting for?
10 days to the upgrade countdown, with 1.58 million ETH stuck in the staking queue waiting to enter, while the ETF suddenly reversed into a 2.81 million outflow—but just now, the price is stuck right in the middle of the $2,705 range, with a ceiling at $2,750 and a lifeline at $2,630. Is this the final accumulation before the major uptrend, or are market manipulators digging a pit for you at $2,700?
First, the surface: up 10%, but it hasn't gone anywhere.
Up 10% over the past 30 days, basically flat over the past 7, with a market cap of $329 billion—still more than 40% below the August 2025 ATH. It started September at $2,400, surged to $2,800 mid-month, and then... got stuck in the $2,630-$2,810 range, sweeping back and forth for an entire month.
$2,705 is right in the middle of this range.
With $100 of room on either side, going long in the middle gives you a risk-reward ratio about as good as flipping a coin.
First: Glamsterdam has entered the testnet, but don't celebrate too soon.
Sepolia activated on October 6, with ePBS, block-level access lists, and new gas pricing—it sounds highly technical.
Translated into plain English: this is a "mock exam" for the mainnet upgrade at the end of the year, not a "graduation ceremony."
A successful testnet run does not equal an immediate mainnet rally. The mainnet date has not been set, most likely in Q4. After Fusaka went live last December, the blob target was raised to 14 and the limit to 21, and L2 data channels were indeed expanded—but what about the price? It didn't care.
Remember this: upgrades are a slow variable, while candlesticks are a fast variable. Don't bet on tomorrow's direction based on a catalyst that is still a quarter away.
Second: the staking queue is still waiting, but it is not today's fuel.
About 1.58 million ETH are queued for activation, while only 200,000 ETH are waiting to exit. New entries outnumber exits by eight to one.
Sounds powerful? Locking up circulating supply is indeed a slow-bull-market narrative.
But bro, this is a story about "you'll find the available supply has decreased three months from now," not a reason that "shorts can be blown up today." Going long today won't make you a penny more just because there are many people in the queue.
Third: the ETF has reversed, and institutions are no longer buying one-way.
During those days in mid-September, ETH ETFs were still outperforming BTC in inflows, and the market was full of talk that "institutions are back."
Then on September 29, there was a net outflow of 2.81 million. The slope has flattened.
It's not frightening, but it is enough to show one thing: the institutional narrative remains, but it is not new fuel for the short term. Some whales are withdrawing coins, while some institutions are reducing ETH and adding UNI—ETH is no longer institutions' only favorite.
Fourth: BTC is offering a range, not a one-way trend.
On Thursday, BTC hovered around $83,000-$84,000, broke above $85,600 after PCE came in slightly below expectations, and was then pressed back down by the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 5.29%. The Fed had just added 25 basis points on September 16, and rates remain at 3.75%-4%.
Translation: the broader market is in a range itself, so why expect ETH to fly alone?
If BTC loses $82,600, ETH will struggle to hold $2,650. Memorize that.
Bulls vs. bears—you decide
On one side:
Glamsterdam testnet activated on October 6, with the mainnet at year-end
1.58 million ETH queued to enter, while only 200,000 ETH are exiting
L2 volumes expanding and blob channels scaling up, making the ultra-sound-money narrative more credible than last year
Up 10% in 30 days, with the range unbroken and the bullish structure intact
On the other side:
The ETF has just reversed into outflows, and the institutional slope has flattened
ETH/BTC has been weak over the long term, with unstable excess returns
$2,705 is right in the middle of the range, making the risk-reward for chasing longs average
BTC itself is being held down by Treasury yields and could drag ETH down at any time
Key levels: $2,750 above, $2,630 below, and $2,705 in the middle.
Above: $2,730-$2,750, the highs of the past two days → $2,780-$2,810 supply zone → only a sustained move above $2,820 opens the discussion of $2,900-$3,000
Below: $2,660-$2,670, today's low zone → $2,630-$2,650, the lower boundary of the range and structural lifeline → $2,550 → $2,410
At $2,705, it's not that you can't buy; it's that you can't make big money, while the losses can still hurt badly.
Trading strategy (no fluff)
Aggressive:
At most, take a very small long position around $2,705, with a stop-loss at $2,648. First target: $2,745; take half off when it gets there. Second target: $2,780. No leverage, no heavy position—this is a test position, not a decisive battle.
Conservative:
Wait for $2,630-$2,660 before considering a long, with a stop-loss at $2,588. An even better level is around $2,550. If it doesn't reach there, wait with a small position. Patience is worth more than courage.
Breakout:
Only consider chasing if it breaks above $2,820 on strong volume and holds, then retests $2,750 without breaking below it. Targets: $2,950 and $3,000. False breakout? Walk away immediately—don't fall in love with it.
Bears:
If the rally toward $2,780-$2,810 loses steam, you can take a small short on the pullback, with a stop-loss at $2,860 and a target of $2,660. But don't blindly short near $2,630—that's walking straight into the line of fire.
Position sizing:
Risk no more than 2% of total capital per trade, with leverage limited to 3-5x. ETH is more volatile than BTC, but not as wildly as narrative coins.
Risk-control priorities, memorize them in order:
Daily close below $2,630 → reduce the position, with the next level at $2,550
BTC breaks below $82,600 and accelerates lower → reduce ETH exposure in tandem, don't hold on
If Glamsterdam runs into problems on Sepolia or the mainnet is officially delayed → short-term expectations get hit first
This ETH move has told half the story of "expanding L2 volumes + an upgrade at year-end," while the price remains stuck in the $2,700 range.
What you can do is defend from the edges, not go all-in chasing $3,000.
Staying alive until $2,630 breaks or $2,820 is confirmed matters a million times more than betting on direction with high leverage at the midpoint.#OneGate见证计划 #核心PCE与GDP终值 #Marvell涨4.5% $BTC $ETH $SOL

September was absolutely massive for crypto.
The Clarity Act failed in the Senate. The Fed hiked rates. Yet crypto still surprised everyone with a huge move higher.
Here’s what happened:
1. BTC closed above the 50W MA for two straight weeks, a strong sign that the trend may be turning.
2. BTC hit $87K, ETH $2.8K and SOL $120 for the first time in nearly 8 months, with the market posting its highest monthly close in 9 months.
3. Total crypto market cap reclaimed $3T for the first time in 8 months.
4. BTC ETFs pulled in $2.65B, while ETH ETFs saw $832.4M in inflows, their second-biggest monthly inflow this year.
5. ETH/BTC finally broke a nearly 5-year downtrend. That could be a major signal for altcoins.
6. The SEC and CFTC started rolling out new crypto rules and pushed forward with regulation even without the Clarity Act.
7. Two major bills advanced: the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill and the crypto tax bill.
8. The SEC said staking tokens and token buybacks are not securities, while the Fed proposed rules that could allow banks to issue their own crypto stablecoins.
9. X partnered with crypto exchanges, bringing crypto trading closer to the timeline.
10. BlackRock expanded access to tokenized investment portfolios, while NYSE partnered to bring tokenized US stocks to 44M crypto accounts.
September gave crypto plenty of reasons to stay bullish.
Now comes October.
If September was Uptember, let’s see what Uptober has in store.

BTC at $83,900—are you betting on $90,000?
Cooler-than-expected PCE sent BTC to $85,500, but 5.3% Treasury yields knocked it back to $83,900. The ETF's nine-day inflow streak broke with $149 million in outflows. Is this a shakeout or a trend reversal?
First, the surface view: a data-day spike is not confirmation of direction.
Wednesday's PCE came in at 3.4% year over year in August, with core at 3.0%, below some expectations. BTC surged to $85,500-$85,600 within hours, wiping out shorts. But then what? The 10-year Treasury yield remained around 5.3%, while the 30-year yield approached its highest level since 2002. The rebound failed to hold, and BTC returned to the $83,900 you see on Thursday. Monday's low of $82,570-$82,600 remains intact, while the September 21 high of $87,300-$87,400 has not been breached.
Remember one thing: a data-day spike is not confirmation of direction. Don't mistake a rebound for a reversal.
First: PCE gave BTC a boost, but bonds did not.
Cooler-than-expected PCE sent the market higher for an hour. But the bond market did not cooperate. If yields do not fall, BTC cannot move higher.
The probability of a rate hike in October is around 30%-40%; policy has not already shifted. The Fed funds rate remains at 3.75%-4.00%, after a 25 bp hike on September 16.
Don't mistake "cooling inflation" for "the start of liquidity expansion." Between the two stands the massive obstacle of Treasuries. BTC is not unwilling to rise; it is being squeezed by 5.3% yields.
Second: the ETF's nine-day inflow streak broke, and the slope turned lower.
Inflows continued from September 17, totaling around $2.4 billion that week, with September's cumulative inflows at $2.6-$2.8 billion and 2026's cumulative figure turning positive again. But on September 30, net outflows were around $149 million, ending the nine-day streak. FBTC saw outflows of around $126 million.
The money has not yet turned into a trend of redemptions, but the slope has already fallen from $999 million on September 21.
ETFs have stopped buying—not because the bull market is dead, but because the bulls are tired. Buying at $83,900 means "the structure is intact and institutions have not left," not "a return to $100,000 is imminent."
Third: the candlesticks are still in a range, with $82,600 as the lifeline.
Path: around $75,000 on September 15 → $87,300-$87,400 on September 21 → $82,570 on September 28 → $85,500-$85,600 on September 30 → back to $83,900 on October 1.
Key levels:
Above: $84,500-$85,000 is today's supply; $85,500-$86,200 is the PCE high zone; $87,000-$87,400 is the top of this impulse. Without a high-volume break above $87,500, don't talk about $90,000.
Below: $83,200-$83,500 is the intraday pullback zone; $82,600-$82,800 is Monday's low and the structural lifeline; $81,000-$81,500 is the September 18 breakout zone; below that, watch $78,000.
The daily chart remains near the lower edge of the rising channel, while the 4-hour chart is consolidating. Volume has contracted significantly from the 21st, indicating digestion. At $83,900, BTC is slightly above the range midpoint.
Only discuss the second leg after holding above $85,000; below $82,600, treat it as a deep short-term retracement.
Bulls versus bears—you decide
On one side:
Post-halving supply contraction continues
ETFs and corporate treasuries form a demand floor
Hash rate is fine, and market capitalization remains the crypto anchor
September ETF cumulative inflows: $2.6-$2.8 billion; 2026 cumulative inflows have turned positive
ATH around $126,000, with the current price one-third lower
On the other side:
The ETF's nine-day inflow streak broke, with $149 million in net outflows
After rebounding from $75,000 to $87,000, buying weakened
Holder profits have risen, while real yields remain high
The 10-year Treasury yield is 5.3%, and the 30-year yield is near its 2002 high
Nonfarm payrolls on October 2, CPI on October 14, and the FOMC meeting on October 27-28 make this a data-heavy month
Key level: $83,900 is slightly above the midpoint
$83,900 is neither a bottom nor a top; it is a meat grinder at the midpoint.
Resistance above: $84,500-$85,000 → $85,500-$86,200 → $87,000-$87,400 → $87,500 (without a high-volume break above, don't talk about $90,000)
Support below: $83,200-$83,500 → $82,600-$82,800 (lifeline) → $81,000-$81,500 → $78,000
Trading strategies (no nonsense)
Aggressive: Try a small long position near $83,900, with a stop-loss at $82,550. First target: $85,000; second target: $85,600. Take half off at $85,000.
Conservative: Wait for $82,800-$83,200 before considering a long, with a stop-loss at $81,400. An even better entry is around $81,000. If it does not reach that level, use a small position.
Breakout: Only consider chasing after a high-volume break and hold above $85,600, followed by a retest that holds above $84,500; target $87,000. Abandon the trade on a false breakout.
Shorts: If the move to $85,000-$85,600 lacks strength, take a small short on the pullback, with a stop-loss at $86,250 and a target of $82,800. Do not blindly short around $82,600.
Position sizing: Risk no more than 2% of total capital per trade; 3-5x leverage is recommended. A data-day spike will first sweep out high-leverage positions.
Risk-control priorities (memorize these)
If the daily candle closes below $82,600, reduce positions and wait; the next level to watch is $81,000.
If ETFs see consecutive net outflows, $83,900 will likely fail.
If nonfarm payrolls are strong and Treasury yields surge again, reduce leverage first.
BTC is not asking whether you dare to get on board; it is asking whether you can withstand the spikes. In a data-heavy month, BTC does not kill direction—it kills leverage.
Don't bet on $90,000 with high leverage at the midpoint. Staying alive until $82,600 fails or $85,600 is confirmed matters more than anything. #OneGate见证计划 #核心PCE与GDP终值 #Marvell涨4.5% $BTC $GT $ETH

Bitcoin just posted its 2nd-strongest Q3 in history. 📈
Ethereum went even further delivering its best Q3 ever.
Both majors just closed the quarter with serious strength.
Q4 just got a lot more interesting. 🔥

Welcome to October, $BTC holders.
Buy during UPtober, retire in Q4.

A new month has begun. Overall, I made a lot of money across the three chains in September, mainly during the early days of the Rb chain. I made most of it on $pair , earning 70k u in total. However, I later got hit by Rug pulls and pullbacks on other coins. Many coins that were originally up 10–20k u weren’t sold and ultimately turned into losses. Later, I used all the profits to buy $pons , with an average cost of around 0.6, so I didn’t lose much there.

Jesse Livermore, the legendary stock operator, ended up taking his own life with a gun. His son, Jesse Livermore Jr., also committed suicide, and even his grandson, Livermore, chose the same fate.
An elite family of traders—three generations, all dead by suicide.
What kind of curse is this?
1. Extreme thresholds and dopamine backlash
Livermore’s core strategy was highly leveraged, concentrated positions combined with trend following. This approach could indeed generate nuclear-level wealth during a raging bull market or a massive crash, but think about how devastating that must have been to the human nervous system.
When your brain becomes accustomed to extreme dopamine stimulation from gains or losses of millions of dollars every second, everything in ordinary life starts to feel dull. Drinking tea, taking a walk—those ordinary pleasures are simply no longer stimulating enough.
Moreover, he went completely bankrupt four times in his life. Each time, he fell from the clouds to the bottom, then fought his way back from scratch. Every round severely drained his vitality. By the time of his final bankruptcy in 1934, he was nearly sixty. Human psychological resilience has its limits. It is like a rubber band stretched countless times: eventually, that final pull makes it snap. He no longer had the spirit or physical strength to make another comeback.
2. The pain of his family of origin
A high-pressure profession like trading requires a safe haven to relieve stress. But Livermore’s family was not a safe haven—it was practically the Bermuda Triangle.
His second wife was a severe alcoholic. During their divorce, she took away a large portion of his core assets, delivering a devastating blow that helped break him. She even shot and wounded their own son while intoxicated. That shadow of despair continued to hang over the family psychologically.
3. When the times abandon you, they do not even give you a warning
After the Great Depression of 1929, the United States established the SEC and introduced extremely strict regulatory laws, completely shutting down unrestricted short selling and market manipulation.
The most devastating measure was the uptick rule. When a stock was falling, you could not blindly keep shorting it on the way down. You had to wait for the price to move up by one tick before you could short it again.
This effectively destroyed Livermore’s signature technique. His greatest strength had been aggressively adding to short positions during waterfall declines, using his enormous selling pressure to create panic and accelerate the sell-off. Once the new rules took effect, his entire approach stopped working. He realized that his sword had suddenly gone dull and that the rules of the era had changed. The collapse of that sense of self-identity was fatal.
Ultimately, trading is the ultimate test of human nature. If you focus only on returns and leverage while neglecting your physical health, family relationships, and private mental space, the market will eventually swallow you whole, with interest.
Never let the market destroy your ability to appreciate ordinary happiness. That is the most complete form of bankruptcy.

$EDEL is consolidating perfectly at the new floor!
After that massive 100%+ run from $0.017 to the $0.030 level, the bulls are just catching their breath. This is textbook retesting.
Current price is $0.0276. If it holds above this key support, the next leg up could be explosive.
Eyes on the chart! Not financial advice.
#EDEL #Crypto #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis

Why have the U.S.-Iran negotiations reached an impasse without oil prices surging? Because as oil transportation channels reopen, Iran’s asymmetric advantage is diminishing, the balance is shifting back toward the U.S., and the market is gradually starting to believe that Trump can hold the line.
There will be back-and-forth from here, but the overall direction for oil is downward, which is also consistent with technical analysis.