Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

$EDEL is consolidating perfectly at the new floor!
After that massive 100%+ run from $0.017 to the $0.030 level, the bulls are just catching their breath. This is textbook retesting.
Current price is $0.0276. If it holds above this key support, the next leg up could be explosive.
Eyes on the chart! Not financial advice.
#EDEL #Crypto #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis

Why have the U.S.-Iran negotiations reached an impasse without oil prices surging? Because as oil transportation channels reopen, Iran’s asymmetric advantage is diminishing, the balance is shifting back toward the U.S., and the market is gradually starting to believe that Trump can hold the line.
There will be back-and-forth from here, but the overall direction for oil is downward, which is also consistent with technical analysis.

The bottom is in for the three top memory stocks, and the explosive primary uptrend has begun:
1. Micron Technology $MU
has strong bullish momentum, backed by its just-released blowout earnings report. It is now preparing to break directly through its all-time high, with the first target price surging to 1400! The probability of a crash is extremely low; the dominant trend right now is a sharp rise.
2. SanDisk $SNDK
is taking off into its primary uptrend, with a target price of 2000-2800 to set a new all-time high. Buyers are firmly in control now, so stay bullish on dips without hesitation.
3. The Memory ETF $DRAM
has finished testing the bottom of its pullback. Although the broader market may remain choppy and prone to false moves and shakeouts in the short term, the overall bullish direction is clear. As long as it holds steadily above 53, it will move upward amid continued consolidation.
Full-position signals are breaking out across the board!

Today’s AI U.S. Stock Information Gap:
1. September core PCE came in below expectations and briefly provided a boost, but stocks gave back gains and weakened in the final hour as the 10-year yield touched 5.3% intraday
2. Micron $MU ’s earnings massively beat expectations, with revenue of $54.23 billion, EPS of 33.42, and guidance of $57 billion, but the stock was flat because it had already been priced in
3. $GOOGL released its new AI model Gemini 4 Argon, outperforming $OpenAI ’s GPT-6 Astra, $Anthropic ’s Claude Opus 5.5, and Fable 5.1
4. $MRNA plunged 5%! Citigroup downgraded it to Sell. Its current valuation is comparable to $REGN ’s, but its profits are 86% lower, and it has already priced in the next 10 years of cancer-treatment business
5. The chosen one of the $Meta version! Muse’s weekly active users have surpassed 3 million, with more than 1 million people issuing prompts every day. It took off with individual users and is now moving into the enterprise market, building a workflow version for small businesses.

Product-wise, MoTA Creator Center's five-step onboarding is the cleanest I've seen in fintech. About 10 minutes, review in 3 business days. No 20-page forms. #MoTA #Product

PCE came in below expectations, so why did BTC surge to $85k only to fall back?
On September 30, the U.S. August core PCE was released: 3.0% year-on-year, below the expected 3.3% and the lowest in six months.
By textbook logic, this was highly bullish. The probability of a rate hike instantly plunged from 70% to 35%. BTC promptly broke above $85k.
And then?
Within a few hours, it gave it all back.
BTC fell from $85,500 to below $84,000, leaving a long upper wick.
As of the September 30 close, BTC was trading at approximately $84,070. This is not the first time BTC has surged to $85k only to be pushed back down, nor will it be the last.
The data was clearly bullish, so why couldn't the price keep rising?
First: This was not a victory for demand; the “ruler” was changed
Ninety-nine percent of the posts online are parroting “core PCE came in below expectations.”
What nobody is telling you is this—this cooling was not entirely due to the economy cooling off.
The Trump administration directly changed the core PCE methodology, switching portfolio management fees from being “measured by financial asset prices” to being “measured by hours worked and hourly earnings.”
In plain English: Previously, when the stock market rose, the inflation figure rose with it. Now, with a different algorithm, the stock market can rise without the inflation figure moving.
Economists expect this new method to systematically lower the core PCE reading by approximately 0.2 percentage points.
This is not “inflation coming down on its own.” It is the use of a more accommodative ruler.
The market understood that. So the PCE boost was priced in for less than two hours.
Second: Inflation is not declining; it is moving sideways
July’s core PCE year-on-year figure was revised down to 3.0%. August’s? Also 3.0%.
Exactly the same for two months.
Headline PCE was 3.4% year-on-year, still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
An even more painful detail: Supercore services PCE, excluding housing and energy, rose 0.4% month-on-month in August, compared with just 0.1% in July. Year-on-year, it rose from 3.4% to 3.5%.
Core inflation appears to be falling, but the indicator that truly reflects underlying pressure is actually accelerating.
This is not “inflation improving.” Inflation has been stuck at 3.0%, while some things underneath are still burning.
Who is really setting the price?
The answer is not the Federal Reserve, nor PCE.
It is the bond market.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly fell to 5.20% after the PCE release, then quickly rebounded, touching 5.304% at one point—the highest level since May 2002.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 5.632%, also a more-than-two-decade high.
What about the market’s pricing for an October rate hike? It was approximately 70% before the PCE release and fell to 35% afterward, but had recovered to approximately 38%-40% by the close.
Inflation data is a smokescreen; yields are the magic mirror that reveals reality.
When the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is above 5.2%, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset is too high. Bitcoin generates no interest, while Treasuries give you a 5.2% risk-free return. Tell me, why would capital flow into Bitcoin?
Some people went long at $85k, thinking they had caught the “bullish catalyst.”
A few hours later, their accounts were in the red.
This is not because you had bad luck.
The market is using an upper wick to tell you: It is a fact that PCE came in below expectations, but inflation staying at 3.0% for two months is more concerning than it being “below expectations.”
The PCE boost was priced in for less than two hours. The real pricing power lies with the bond market—when the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is above 5.2%, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset is too high. Inflation data is a smokescreen; yields are the magic mirror that reveals reality.
It is a fact that PCE came in below expectations, but the market used an upper wick to tell you: Inflation staying at 3.0% for two months is more concerning than it being “below expectations.” #OneGate见证计划 #核心PCE与GDP终值 #Marvell涨4.5% $BTC $ETH $SOL

$XRP is starting to look interesting on the weekly.
The bigger structure is still intact, and this latest consolidation could be the setup for another expansion.
If the projected wave structure plays out, the next major zone sits around $8–$10, with the chart showing a much higher long-term extension.
For now, I’m watching the breakout and weekly closes closely.
Not a prediction just the structure I’m watching.
#OneGateWitnessProgram #CorePCEandGDPFinalReading

They say September is the most cursed month for U.S. stocks. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has averaged a -1.1% return in September—the only month of the year with a negative return, no exceptions.
Yet this September, $QQQ gained 3.6% over the month, $VGT rose 4.7%, and $SOXX $SMH surged 9%, while $SPY barely moved, gaining just 0.1%. This shows that it isn’t a broad-based bull market—it’s an all-in bet on AI!

BREAKING: Fed hike odds just collapsed from 70% to 34%.
That’s a major shift in expectations.
With markets now pricing a much lower chance of another rate hike this year, pressure on risk assets could ease.
For crypto, a softer Fed outlook could provide another bullish catalyst.

Good news! The August PCE price index came in softer than expected on the core measure, and the probability of a rate hike in October has plunged to 37%!
But this improvement in the inflation data isn’t entirely because prices actually fell; part of it is due to changes in the calculation methodology. The BEA retroactively revised down the components for investment management, software, and legal services.
Next, we’ll be watching Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, the October 14 CPI, and oil prices. Once these three factors are settled, the meeting on the 28th will be basically a foregone conclusion!

Suppose you started with $100,000 and were ready to make a big move.
In January, you accidentally bought $SNDK , casually swapped it for $LITE in February, switched to $LYB in March, bought $INTC in April, got in on $DELL in May, rebalanced into $AMAT in June, switched into $CTSH in July, went all in on $MRNA in August and held through September before switching to $AMD—congratulations, you now have $16.6 million!
See? Stock trading is that simple!

ETH at $2,700—are you trapped?
ETF inflows just broke after seven straight days, the Glamsterdam testnet is still running, and the price plunged from 2805 back to 2630 and moved sideways for an entire week—but just as you were hesitating over whether to cut your losses, the range had quietly completed its rotation. Is this “dead water after a failed breakout,” or the final shakeout before the main rally?
Look at the surface first: it can't rise, but it hasn't collapsed either.
It surged to 2805 on September 21, and everyone called for 3000, only for it to plunge back to 2630 over five days. Then, for a week, it moved back and forth between 2630 and 2750. You open the candlestick chart, and it looks just like a flatlined ECG. It has moved sideways over the past 7 days, gained 7-11% over the past 30 days, and has a market cap of $326 billion, still in second place. Put simply, this is not a crash, but high-level consolidation after a failed rally.
But do you know what hurts the most?
The $2,700 level has already priced in all of the “ETF inflows + upgrade testing.” You are not bottom-fishing; you are betting on the direction at the midpoint of the range.
First: ETF money has stalled.
In the week of September 21, ETH ETFs saw net inflows of $690 million, their strongest week since late August. Everyone got excited and shouted, “The institutions are here.”
And then?
Inflows fell to just $17.1 million on the 28th, then turned negative on the 29th, with net outflows of $2.81 million. Seven straight days of inflows, broken.
Assets under management still stand at $17.8 billion, accounting for 5.4% of the market cap, with cumulative 30-day inflows of $980 million. The money hasn't fled, but the slope has flattened. In plain English: institutions are still here, but they are no longer rushing to buy.
Are you expecting ETFs to aggressively buy every day and push ETH to 3000? Wake up—the buying pressure is slowing, not accelerating.
Second: the Glamsterdam testnet is running, but the market isn't buying it.
The Sepolia fork is targeted for September 28, serving as a public test before the mainnet upgrade. Fusaka was implemented last December and expanded L2 capacity; Glamsterdam is the next leg.
The logic is clear: upgrade goes live → L2 becomes faster and cheaper → ETH's value as a settlement layer rises → institutions become more willing to stake.
But the market no longer rewards expectations; it only rewards execution. If the testnet runs into problems, the mainnet gets delayed, and the price will be dumped first. If the testnet runs smoothly and the mainnet is confirmed, that could ignite the second wave.
The sideways movement you are seeing now is the market waiting for one answer: will Glamsterdam actually work?
Third: the technicals tell you that 2700 is not a breakout level.
The path is clear:
September 15 low at 2357 → above 2600 on the 18th → surged to 2805 on the 21st → plunged back to 2637 on the 23rd → moved sideways between 2630 and 2750 for the following week.
The 2700 you see is right around the upper-middle of the range. This is not a breakout level; it is a rotation zone.
Resistance above: 2740-2750 (repeated supply) → 2780-2805 (this cycle's high) → 2810 (don't talk about 3000 without a high-volume break and hold)
Support below: 2650-2660 (range floor) → 2630 (September 23-24 lows) → 2550 (key structure) → 2400 (deep retracement target)
After retreating from overbought levels, the daily chart has flattened out; the 4-hour chart is neutral, and volume has clearly contracted from the huge volume on the 21st. This is rotation, not a crash. But the direction after the rotation ends depends on whether 2630 holds.
You can judge the bull-bear battle yourself
On one side:
Cumulative 30-day ETF net inflows of $980 million; institutions haven't fled
The Glamsterdam testnet is running, and the upgrade narrative remains intact
Treasuries such as BitMine continue accumulating ETH, approaching 5% of the circulating supply
RWA/tokenized stocks remain on ETH, and its position as a settlement layer is secure
DeFi TVL has recovered from $69.2 billion to $95.4 billion, with an on-chain share above half
On the other side:
The seven-day streak of ETF inflows has ended, and buying pressure is slowing
ETH/BTC remains at low levels, with capital yet to rotate into Ethereum
BTC is weak around 83000; if it breaks below 82600, ETH may fail to hold 2650
The bullish catalysts have already been priced into 2700; these are not cheap coins
It remains down 45% from the ATH of 4950, with heavy overhead supply
The key level is 2700, just $70 away from the 2630 line that determines life or death.
Above: 2750 (only after holding can we discuss the second leg) → 2810 (high-volume confirmation) → 3000
Below: 2650-2660 (range floor) → 2630 (reduce positions on a breakdown) → 2550 → 2400
Trading strategy (no fluff)
Aggressive:
Try a small long position around 2700, with a stop-loss at 2628. First target: 2750; second target: 2800. Take half off at 2750. Don't get greedy—the money made inside a range comes from discipline.
Conservative:
Wait for 2630-2660 before considering a long, with a stop-loss at 2545. An even better entry would be around 2550. If it doesn't reach that level, wait with a small position. Let the bagholders chase the highs.
Breakout strategy:
Only consider chasing after a high-volume break and hold above 2810, followed by a retest that holds above 2750, with a target of 3000. Abandon the trade immediately on a false breakout. All gains below 2810 are range rebounds, not a trend.
Bears:
If the move toward 2740-2750 loses steam, consider a small short for a pullback, with a stop-loss at 2815 and a target of 2630. Do not blindly short around 2630—that is the range floor, and you could easily get burned.
Position sizing: Risk no more than 2% of total capital per trade, with leverage capped at 3-5x.
Risk-control priorities (memorize these)
Daily close below 2630 → reduce positions and wait; next levels are 2550 and 2400
ETH ETFs record consecutive net outflows → 2700 is highly likely to fail
BTC breaks below 82600 → reduce ETH exposure in tandem
Major Glamsterdam testnet failure → short-term expectations get dumped first
ETH right now is like Bitcoin before its 2020 breakout—
Everyone is waiting for 3000, but nobody is willing to tough it out in the 2700 range.
The day 2630 breaks, you will realize:
It's not that ETH won't rise; it's that you chased the highs at the top of the range again.#OneGate见证计划 #核心PCE与GDP终值 #Marvell涨4.5% $BTC $ETH $SOL

Before Zhu Yuanzhang turned his luck around, he had to beg for food like anyone else, so there’s really no point in panicking when times are tough.
It’s actually quite interesting when you think about it. When Zhu Yuanzhang was 17, there was a severe drought, a locust plague, and an epidemic. Within half a month, his father, mother, and older brother all starved to death. His family was so poor they could not even afford a plot of land to bury them. To stay alive, he went to Huangjue Temple to become a monk. But 50 days later, the temple ran out of food too. The abbot gave him a begging bowl and sent him out to beg for food.
He begged throughout the Huai River region for three whole years. From the age of 17 to 20, he wandered from place to place alone with a broken bowl, enduring hunger and cold and seeing every side of human nature. After he finished begging and returned to the temple, he kept a low profile there for another four full years, sweeping, burning incense, and reading every day. It was not until he was 25, when he received a letter from his childhood friend Tang He and went to join Guo Zixing, that the wheels of his destiny truly began to turn.
When your good fortune has not yet arrived, be content to beg for food.
Stay sharp, keep your body healthy, and build a solid foundation in the basics. When the winds of the times blow your way, you need to have a sail ready to catch that force.

Quick update: The U.S. core PCE annual rate released tonight came in below expectations, hitting a new six-month low.
This eased the pressure for further rate hikes.
Next, we’ll be watching the U.S. September nonfarm payrolls report released on October 2.
As long as expectations are below 60%, Warsh’s style will be to stay put.
As long as there is no another rate hike, the market should recover and end the correction early.
In addition, I’ve already closed my crude oil short positions and am preparing for swing trades. The U.S. and Iran are maneuvering against each other, with neither side willing to back down.
If it rebounds, I’ll look for a high point to short again. $BTC $CL

Quick update: The U.S. core PCE annual rate released tonight came in below expectations, hitting a new six-month low
This eases the pressure for further rate hikes
Next, all eyes are on the U.S. September nonfarm payrolls report due on October 2
As long as expectations are below 60%, Walsh will stay put
As long as there is no another rate hike, the market should recover and end the correction early
In addition, I have already closed my crude oil short positions and am preparing for a swing trade. The U.S. and Iran are locked in a standoff, with neither side willing to back down
If it rebounds, I will look for a higher level to short again.

There were no support or resistance levels in the world; when enough people believed in them, support and resistance levels came into being.
1. The more precisely you draw them, the more likely you are to get stopped out at those exact points. Support and resistance are zones, not single lines.
2. Price will eventually break through every support and resistance level. The only question is when.
3. The greatest value of these levels is not prediction, but risk management.
Price will eventually break through everything!

$BTC USDT ANALYSIS
Bitcoin is still moving inside a falling wedge and is currently below the resistance line.
The 50MA is also acting as resistance, making this an important level to watch.
If BTC breaks above the wedge and moves clearly above the 50MA, it could show that buyers are gaining strength.
A confirmed breakout may open the door for further upside.
For now, BTC is still in a consolidation phase, so patience is important.
Key levels to watch:
→ Falling wedge resistance
→ 50MA
→ Breakout confirmation
Let’s see how #BTC reacts at these levels.

Flying from the US 🇺🇸 to Singapore 🇸🇬 next week.
Are there any 2049 side events?
Feel free to hit me up～

BULLISH: Sovereign wealth funds are reportedly selling GOLD to buy Bitcoin.
Bitwise's head of research Ryan Rasmussen says major institutions increasingly hold Bitcoin alongside gold as a hedge against currency debasement.
The firm's first institutional survey found none of the 15 major institutions it interviewed sold their crypto as Bitcoin fell from about $125,000 to $60,000.
Several bought more.
One sovereign wealth fund told Bitwise it was funding its crypto allocation by selling foreign exchange and gold reserves.
Rasmussen says he believes $60,000 was the bottom.
#AnthropicDiscloses$84.5BComputeDealWithSpaceX #OpenAIAnnualRecurringRevenueNears$70B $BTC

The most addictive part of prediction markets may be that just when you think the outcome is almost decided, it can still turn around.
Not long ago, Tiafoe played Michelsen, lost the first two sets, then fought back to win the match by taking the next three. I got a little taste of that myself～
Gate Prediction Market Season 6 has also settled: the total prize pool was 26,976.10 USDT, with 8,092.83 USDT going to the top-ranked player. Some people climb the leaderboard by researching events and earning points, while others prefer trying their luck with scratch cards. Both approaches are engaging.
What caught my eye most was the Lucky Jackpot Pool: 36,907.57 USDT. No one won it this round, so it rolled over to the next one. With a number like that sitting there, it’s hard to pretend you didn’t notice😂
Here’s the entry point. If you want to check out the events and leaderboard for the next round, feel free to browse👇