Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

Neither investing nor trading is better.
It depends on your goals, risk tolerance, and how much time you can dedicate.
Every market carries risk, so understanding your strategy matters just as much as choosing the asset.

Fun fact: For the 25 years since Google went public, its stock’s annualized return has been 24%!
With such great earnings, it still plunged—$GOOGL is only up +1.2% YTD this year—so follow Buffett and add to your position!

ZAMA at $0.051—when it spikes then falls back, would you dare to buy?

Everyone across the whole web is shouting that the privacy sector is about to explode. ZAMA just set a new ATH of 0.064, and then a single needle drops it back to 0.051—volatility of over 25%—but just now, a full-chain confidential RFQ protocol went live, Elliptic compliance cooperation has landed, and big whales are still continuously accumulating. So is this “a golden pullback after a breakout,” or an ATH bait-and-sell trap?

First, look at the surface: a barrage of good news, yet the price crashes 20% from the ATH.

It’s up 50-70% over the past week, up 90% in a month. This morning it surged to a historical high of 0.0646, then quickly got smashed back to 0.051. The swing is 25% up and down. The candlestick chart tells you: rallies with expanding volume, pullbacks with contracting volume—buyers haven’t left. Every technical indicator is calling out one thing: profit-taking is all that’s fleeing; the trend hasn’t actually broken.

First thing: you think it’s a “collapse,” but actually it’s “institutions washing the book.”

Zama just launched a full-chain composable confidential RFQ protocol. The private beta has been running, and the public version is expected to go live in September. What this solves is DeFi’s biggest pain point—MEV front-running and exposed trading strategies. Put into plain words: institutions used to not dare to use public chains because large orders would get sandwiched by attacks; now Zama hides the trades, and Wall Street can finally get in.

The “confidential compliance” with Elliptic is even tougher—wallet screening doesn’t expose balances or amounts. It can both anti–money laundering and protect privacy. This is the “both needed” that the privacy sector has been waiting for for a decade.

Retail sees the spike-and-dip panic and cuts positions; institutions see it as a project that has just resolved an institution-level pain point—its market cap is only $110 million.

Second thing: the privacy-sector rotation is happening at a level you can’t imagine.

While you’re still watching BTC wobble around 64k, ZAMA has already climbed from 0.016 to 0.064—close to 4x. In July’s privacy coin heat rankings, ZAMA is ranked third—ahead of it are ZEC and XMR, and none of them has a market cap in the tens of billions?

Meanwhile, ZAMA’s market cap is just $110 million, with FDV of $570 million. Compared with ZEC’s $9 billion, that’s an 80x difference.

If you don’t get it, no worries—I’ll translate it into plain talk:

ZEC in the same sector has a $9 billion market cap, while ZAMA has $110 million.

Solving the same privacy needs, ZAMA is the leader in the full homomorphic encryption (FHE) track.

Funding exceeds $200 million; the mainnet is already running, and real usage adoption is growing.

There’s 80x of upside—so tell me this is what you call “a collapse”?

Third thing: the technicals tell you this is just the “mid-session breather” during the main rally.

After setting an ATH at 0.064 today, it pulled back to 0.051. Trading volume expanded significantly during the rise, and shrank clearly during the pullback. What does that mean? The sellers are profit-takers, and the buyers are waiting for a lower price.

RSI falling back from the overbought zone—correction completed.

0.050-0.048 is the prior high turned support + an integer level.

Moving averages are still in a bullish alignment—trend not broken.

The real “collapse” is a volume-spiking dump that doesn’t turn back, not a low-volume retest of support.

The bulls vs bears battle—judge for yourself:

On one side:

The confidential RFQ protocol goes live, solving DeFi’s biggest pain point for institutions.

Elliptic compliance cooperation—“confidential compliance” clears regulatory obstacles.

The privacy-sector rotation starts—same-sector ZEC has a $9 billion market cap.

Funding of $200 million+; the mainnet is genuinely running, and TVS keeps growing.

On the other side:

A 20% pullback from ATH today—massive short-term profit-taking.

FDV is $570 million—future unlock pressure can’t be ignored.

If BTC breaks below 60k, small caps will be hit first.

Key level is 0.051—only 25% away from the prior high of 0.064.

Resistance overhead: 0.055-0.058 → 0.060-0.064 (ATH zone) → 0.08+

Support below: 0.050-0.048 → 0.045-0.04 (iron floor)

Trading strategy (no nonsense)

Aggressive short-term:

Go long in batches with light positions in the 0.050-0.0515 range; stop-loss at 0.0485; targets 0.055 → 0.058 → 0.062. If the pullback doesn’t break support, you can add.

Conservative swing:

Wait and observe, or build a long position in the 0.048-0.050 strong support zone; stop-loss at 0.045; targets in batches at 0.06/0.07+.

Risk-control iron rules:

Perpetual leverage ≤ 5x—watch the funding rate.

Position size ≤ 20-30% of total funds.

If BTC breaks below 60k, reduce positions first.

ZAMA is now like ONDO at the start of 2024—

Everyone thought “the privacy sector has no play,” but once an institution-level product gets implemented, the market cap goes from $100 million to $1 billion. #直通IPO第二期JerseyMikes #夏日创作营 #Gate事件合约首发狂欢 $BTC $ONDO $ZAMA

ETH worth $1,850—do you still have faith?

In July, it bounced violently from 1,570 back to 1,900. You just felt, “The bull market is back,” and then it got smashed back to 1,850. Next week’s FOMC is a life-or-death decision, with both bulls and bears fighting fiercely at 1,850—so is this “the final washout before the super cycle,” or your last chance to escape?

First, look at the surface: the rebound hits resistance, and the split between bulls and bears reaches the extreme.

In the past 30 days, it’s up 12%-14%. It rebounded from the 1,570 low, tested 1,900-1,950 recently, and then pulled back. It’s currently ranging around 1,850. In mid-July, spot ETH ETF ended several weeks of net outflows—one week saw peak inflows of over $100 million. The candles tell you: 1,850 has been defended multiple times, forming higher lows. Daily RSI is trending upward, and volume shrinks when it’s falling—selling pressure isn’t heavy, but the bulls also don’t have the nerve to pump.

At 1,850, bulls and bears are fighting over who moves first—nobody dares to act. Trader sentiment has reached peak divergence: bulls see 2,000-2,200, while bears see 1,200.

First thing: ETFs are returning, but retail is still panicking.

In mid-July, the spot ETH ETF ended consecutive weeks of net outflows and switched to consecutive days of net inflows. Peak inflows hit over $100 million in one week, led by BlackRock’s ETHA. Even though around July 24 saw roughly 37k ETH in net outflows, ending five days of inflows, cumulative net flows still remain positive—historically about $11 billion cumulative.

Sounds not exciting? Let me tell you what it means:

Institutions quietly bought for an entire week below 1,850, while you’re calling ETH “trash.” Same script as the 2023 BTC ETF—institutions quietly accumulated while retail kept cutting losses wildly, and then what? BTC rose from $20k to $120k.

What does “accumulating on dips” mean? It’s when you panic, and institutions get greedy.

Second thing: fundamentals haven’t changed—what changed is your mindset.

Mainnet DeFi TVL is about $41 billion. Stablecoin and smart contract activity stay elevated, and the L2 ecosystem continues expanding. On-chain data shows the price is below realized price (realized price). Historically, that’s a relatively undervalued range.

If you don’t get it, it’s fine—I’ll translate it into plain human language:

More people are using ETH, but the price is still getting lower—that’s divergence.

Below realized price means most holders are losing money.

Historically, every time it reaches this level, it’s been a golden pit.

ETH’s fundamentals didn’t break—what broke is your faith.

You say ETH isn’t good? Then tell me which one isn’t ETH’s territory: DeFi, RWA, stablecoins, or L2. Solana is fast, Tron is cheap—but who is doing the most hardcore settlement layer?

Third thing: FOMC is coming—this is the biggest variable.

Next week, July 28-29 FOMC. The market expects rates to be kept unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% (70%-90% probability). June CPI came in below expectations, easing fears of more hikes. But oil prices rose due to geopolitics, pushing the probability of “at least one more hike within 2026” to 70%.

Plain English: if FOMC is dovish → ETH straight to 2,000+. If hawkish → first dump back to 1,700, then give you a chance to board.

No matter which outcome, ETH’s price is still low right now. The difference is only this: are you buying now, or waiting for FOMC then chasing higher?

Bulls vs bears—judge for yourself.

One side says:

ETF shifts from continuous outflows to intermittent inflows—institutions start bargain hunting

Price is below realized price—historically undervalued

DeFi TVL $37k—an unbeatable moat for the ecosystem

FOMC likely holds steady, risk assets benefit

The other side says:

Denied 3 times between 1,900-1,950—bulls lack confidence

Oil prices rising + geopolitics, inflation could keep coming back

L2 siphons value, reducing the mainnet’s ability to capture value

Still down over 35% YTD—the trend hasn’t fully reversed

Key level: 1,850 is only $50 away from the life-or-death line at 1,900

Resistance above: 1,900-1,920 → 1,935-1,950 (breakout means reversal) → 2,000

Support below: 1,840-1,850 → 1,820-1,834 → 1,800 → 1,780 (hard floor)

Trading strategy (no fluff)

For short-term traders:

Scale in long with small positions in the 1,840-1,855 range, stop loss below 1,820 (strict!), targets 1,900 → 1,950 → 2,000. If you hold before FOMC and see volume expand, you can add.

If it breaks and closes effectively below 1,820, flip to short, target 1,780 → 1,750, stop loss above 1,850.

For swing traders:

If FOMC is dovish + ETFs keep flowing in, add on dips at 1,800-1,850, target 2,200. If it’s hawkish, wait for a better buy point near 1,700.

For long-term believers:

Buy monthly/keep investing blindly below 1,850. Since price is below realized price + institutions start flowing back, the target by end-2026 is around 2,500-3,000. Keep total position size at 20%-30%, invest with spare funds, and hold—don’t move.

ETH right now is like the 2023 BTC—

Everyone thinks “L2 siphons away value, ETH has no story,” and then when the institutional ETF finally comes in—from 1,500 it went to 4,000. #直通IPO第二期JerseyMikes #夏日创作营 #Gate事件合约首发狂欢 $BTC $ETH $SOL

Did the BTC worth $63.8k scare you away?

The “Big Mac” dropped from 126k to 63k. You held for a year—then just when you cut your loss, you found out: ETF net outflows hit $212 million in a day, oil prices broke above $100, the FOMC is coming, but the price just won’t budge down. So is this round “the final dump before the storm,” or have you once again fallen before dawn?

First, look at the surface: bad news bombardment, but price refuses to give.

In the past 24 hours, it fell 1.5%, smashing from 65k to 63.8k. ETF outflows were $212 million, the Middle East situation pushed oil prices above $100, the Fear & Greed Index dropped to 27-35, and retail users are shouting “crash.” But the candlesticks tell you: the 63,600 demand zone is holding. Volume is down on up days and up on selling days—everyone is waiting for a direction.

The first thing: ETF outflows—yet you may have been fooled by the media again.

BlackRock saw $212 million outflow in a day, and the headlines everywhere screamed: “Institutions are running away!”

But data speaks—historical cumulative net inflows are still positive by several hundred million. What you see is outflow in a single day; what you don’t see is how much flowed in over the past year. Same script: after the ETF passed in January 2024, every time there was outflow people called “a major top.” What happened then?

What does “emotional trading” mean? It’s seeing outflow for a day and shouting bear market, seeing inflow for a day and shouting liftoff. Institutions are rebalancing, while you panic and sell. Whales are accumulating, while you cut your position.

The second thing: oil prices broke above $100, but BTC has already been “desensitized.”

The Iran situation pushed oil prices to above $100, inflation worries resurfaced, and the dollar strengthened. Sounds scary? But look at BTC’s reaction—down from 65k to 63.8k, less than 2%.

With the same kind of news: half a year ago it would have dumped 5%. Now only falling 2%—what does that imply? The market has already priced in the worst macro expectations.

Retail is still worrying about rate hikes, but smart money is already asking: With oil at $100, how hawkish can the Fed still be? At a 3.75% interest rate, how much room is left to add?

The third thing: when you don’t dare to buy, long-term holders are quietly adding.

On-chain data is crystal clear: in the past 30 days, long-term holders (LTHs) have been continuously increasing their holdings. The exchange whale inflow ratio being on the high side is true—but that’s because short-term traders are distributing. The true believers, at the 63k area, at a level about 50% retraced from ATH, when retail is most panicked—chose to buy.

Hash price and miner revenue are near multi-year lows; inefficient miners are shutting down—that’s a standard signal seen before every major bottom in history. Miner capitulation = the bottom region. At end-2022: 16k; and in August 2024: 49k—same playbook.

Bull vs bear showdown—judge for yourself

On one side:

Long-term holders keep adding; smart money is positioning

Miner revenue near multi-year lows = historical bottom signal

About 50% retrace from ATH; valuation has been compressed sharply

63,600 demand zone has been defended multiple times

On the other side:

ETF outflows of $212 million in a day

Oil price above $100; market cautious before FOMC

Fear & Greed Index at 27-35, sentiment skewed pessimistic

Low liquidity on the weekend makes false breakouts easier

Key level at 63.8k—just $200 away from the life-or-death line at 63,600

Resistance above: 64,450-64,550 → 65k-65,500 → 68,000

Support below: 63,600-63,650 → 62,800-63k → 61,000-62,000

Trading strategy (no fluff)

For short-term traders:

On a rebound, choose to short at 64,400-64,600, stop loss above 65k, targets 63k-62,800. If it breaks below 63,000 with volume, follow the move and look to 62,000. If it stabilizes between 63,000-63,600 with low volume, you can lightly try a long, stop loss below 61,500. Position size ≤ 10%, leverage not more than 3x.

For swing traders:

Focus on the strong support zone at 62,800-63,200. If it stabilizes with low volume plus an ETF转流入 signal (turn to net inflows), build longs in batches, targets 65,000 → 68,000. Don’t add positions before FOMC—wait until direction becomes clear.

For long-term believers:

About 50% retrace from ATH; miners are shutting down; long-term holders are buying—this is the DCA range, not the panic range. But be prepared that it may still dip further to 55-58k, keeping position sizes within what you can afford.

BTC right now is like 16k at the end of 2022—

Everyone shouted, “BTC will be the next to go to zero,” and a year later it hit 70k; two years later it reached 126k. #直通IPO第二期JerseyMikes #夏日创作营 #Gate事件合约首发狂欢 $BTC $ETH $SOL

A sense of ceremony is important 😉

HYPE worth $57—are you going to cut?

Top-tier institutions like Paradigm and Multicoin have just released $290 million worth of HYPE. The price has fallen from the ATH of 77 to 57, down 25%—but just now, the platform’s cumulative perpetual trading is nearing $50 trillion, annualized revenue is nearly $800 million, and the buyback engine is absorbing liquidity every day. So is this round “institutions cashing out en masse,” or the last chance to get on board?

First, on the surface: good news is already out—institutions are retreating?

Over the past week it’s down 4%, down 10% for the month. After pulling back 25% from the mid-June high of 77, retail traders are panicking and shouting “it’s breaking down.” But over six months it’s still up 157%, YTD up 124%. TVL is $6.1 billion, and 30-day perpetual trading exceeds $190 billion. The chart tells you this: the support zone of the 56–58 uptrend line has been tested repeatedly; CVD shows a bullish divergence; and all technical indicators are basically saying one thing—support won’t break, and a rebound is just around the corner.

First thing: institutions have released $290 million, but you may have been spooked.

Paradigm, Multicoin, and others combined to release about $291 million worth of HYPE. Multicoin alone released roughly 1.96 million HYPE, worth $120 million, and some flowed to exchanges.

Sounds scary? But look at the order book—HYPE fell from 77 to 57, only a 25% drop.

With the same bad news, weak projects get cut in half; HYPE is only down 25% and has stalled right in the 56–58 support zone. Some voices say this is wallet rotation or funding needs for a new project, not broad distribution. More importantly, the protocol’s buyback engine keeps automatically accumulating every day—while some sell, others buy.

What counts as strong support? This is it. Retail is still panicking that “institutions are dumping,” while whales are quietly picking up below 57.

Second thing: the fundamentals are absurdly strong, but you’re being tricked by price.

Cumulative perpetual trading is close to $50 trillion, TVL is $6.1 billion, 30-day trading exceeds $190 billion, annualized fees exceed $1 billion, and revenue is about $790 million—most of it flows to buyback and burn, and the supply side keeps shrinking.

Don’t get it? No problem—I’ll translate it into plain human language:

This is a project with real profits, and it buys back its own token every day

Not air, not a meme—one of the strongest cash-flow leaders in DeFi

The product has expanded into stocks, FX, commodities, and RWA—the broader the runway, the wider the track

Price is down 25%, but fundamentals are up 100%. You watch the chart and panic; institutions watch the data and get greedy. That’s divergence.

Third thing: “HIP” upgrade + RWA explosion—the story isn’t finished yet.

Permission market progress is ongoing, and at one point RWA trading volume surpassed crypto-native categories; big holders continue staking. Hyperliquid is shifting from “the on-chain perpetual leader” into an “all-asset trading layer.”

Retail is still debating whether to enter at 57 or 58, but institutions are already positioning for the 2027 narrative.

Remember this golden line:

Every time you cut because of bad news, you’re handing bloodied chips to the people who understood the data.

Bulls vs. bears—you decide.

One side is:

Annualized revenue of nearly $800 million, with buyback-and-burn continuing to accumulate

Cumulative trading of nearly $50 trillion—the DeFi cash-flow king

RWA + stocks + FX—track expansion, with the ceiling opened up

56–58 uptrend line support + bullish CVD divergence

The other side is:

Institutions released $290 million—selling pressure hasn’t been fully absorbed

Weekly down 4%, short-term trend is relatively weak

If BTC breaks below 60k, all altcoins have to follow down

Key level is 57—only 3 dollars away from the lifeline at 60

Resistance above: 60 (psychological level) → 63–64 → 70+ (previous highs)

Support below: 56–58 (trend line + key support) → 50–55 (major floor)

Trading strategy (no fluff)

For short-term traders:

Wait to buy in batches at 56.5–57.5 with low bids, stop loss below 55 (strict!), targets 60–63. If support doesn’t break, don’t chase shorts. Liquidity is thin over the weekend—move less and watch more.

For swing players:

Wait for a recovery to 60 and confirmation on the daily chart; add on the right-side breakout. Target 70+. If it breaks below 55, exit first and observe.

For long-term believers:

DCA in batches from 52–58. A DeFi leader with nearly $800 million in annualized revenue, and a market cap of only $14.4 billion—no matter how you look at it, it doesn’t seem expensive. The 2027 target looks like 100–150+. You’re betting on the RWA + all-asset trading explosion.

HYPE right now is like Hyperliquid itself after the 2024 crash—

Every time institutions release tokens, people shout “it’s distribution,” but every time the low is reached, the next one is higher than the last. #直通IPO第二期JerseyMikes #夏日创作营 #Gate事件合约首发狂欢 $BTC $ETH $HYPE

Before buying any stock or crypto, ask yourself:
What is my goal?
How long will I hold it?
What level of risk can I accept?
Learning first won't guarantee success, but it can help you make better-informed decisions.
Always DYOR.

In a bear market, there will always be some wealth-making effects to attract market attention—possibly via contracts, or possibly through memes.
The account that an exchange displayed on social media with unusually high reported profits might just be a god-like creation deliberately manufactured for hype.
Don’t be overly ambitious as an ordinary person. Earning more than ten thousand per month right now is already quite good. Don’t think that a few thousand USDT is small money—know yourself, hold on to what you already have, and then try to climb higher.

Gm and happy Saturday! ☕️

$BTC Update & Hyblock Heatmaps

Bitcoin swept the previous low by around 100 bucks.

Let's see if that is sufficient, as you can see in 7d heatmap, it's a bit like the two equal highs situation we just had to the upside.

Overall plan still the same. Have a great weekend and see you soon!#SummerCreationCamp #GateSquare

Under the same AI sky: buyers in the ICU, sellers at a party

This market is completely split in two.

On one side, Tesla is down 14%, Google is down 7%, and the Nasdaq wiped out $797B in a single day. Buy-side stocks are being squeezed by capital expenditures, unable to breathe.

On the other side—on the same day—Samsung and SK hynix signed a long-term supply agreement with Anthropic; NVIDIA announced a $1B investment in Naver to expand AI data centers; and it also teamed up with SK Group on a more-than-$500B AI cooperation plan.

SK hynix will provide U.S. companies with $750B in long-term storage chips, while Samsung will supply Broadcom with $200B in chips.

Add them up: a combined $950B mega-deal.

Buyers are lying in the ICU getting beaten by the market, while sellers signed one of the largest chip orders in human history on the same day.

Is this TM reasonable?

First, look at the buyer side—dire, really dire.

Tesla’s Q2 free cash flow was -$1.09B, Google -$5.9B, and it turned negative for the first time since listing.

The market’s logic right now is extremely simple and brutal: you burn cash, I throw cash. Revenue beating expectations? Doesn’t matter. AI business exploding? Get lost. I only ask one question—can your free cash flow hold up?

Now look at the seller side—awesome, really awesome.

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei announced it personally, and it also signed Samsung and SK hynix at the same time. Pay attention to the word “at the same time”—Anthropic’s strategy isn’t picking sides, it’s double insurance.

On the same day, NVIDIA announced a $1B investment in Naver, expanding the scale of AI data centers by more than twofold. Brookfield followed with $9B.

Still not done. SK Telecom plans to build a 2 GW AI factory in South Korea, using NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin chips and SK hynix’s HBM4 memory. What does 2 GW mean? Enough to supply 1.5 million households’ electricity at the same time.

NVIDIA also plans to help SK hynix design the next-generation HBM chips.

This isn’t cooperation at all—this is locking everything down from all angles.

Intel also jumped in.

Q2 revenue was $16.13B, up 25% year over year, the fastest growth in nearly 15 years. The data center business surged 59%. Q3 guidance was $15.8B to $16.8B, far above analysts’ expectation of $15.1B.

Shares rose more than 13% after hours.

Qualcomm also announced double-digit percentage price hikes.

Supply-side demand signals are so dense that they’re hard to ignore.

But what matters most is this set of divergence.

Buy-side stocks are falling, while seller orders are flying. The correlation between the two is approaching zero.

This means the market’s worry about AI hardware demand is—emotional. And the actual orders—are real.

SK hynix and Samsung aren’t waiting for AI demand; they’re already locking in orders.

What does this mean for AI-related crypto assets?

In the short term, market sentiment is still dominated by the buyers’ cash-flow anxiety. Tesla and Google’s plunge is still spreading, and the Nasdaq is still bleeding. “Selling shovels” assets like AI computing power tokens and storage concept coins will likely be dragged down by the broader market in the short term.

But in the medium term—this is where the seller fundamentals are visibly getting stronger.

A $950B order locks in revenue for the coming years. A 2 GW data center is under construction. HBM4 is on the way.

When the market finally reacts, “Oh, so the shovel-sellers are actually making money,” what will happen?

My view is: this divergence won’t last forever.

Either buyer sentiment repairs and lifts the whole AI sector—sellers rise along with it.

Or seller orders keep beating expectations and ultimately pull the market out of “cash-flow anxiety”—sellers strengthen independently.

No matter which path, the seller logic is tougher than the buyer’s.

Yesterday’s pullback was the market digesting anxiety. But this batch of orders—directly gives a fundamental-level rebuttal. #直通IPO第二期JerseyMikes #夏日创作营 #Gate事件合约首发狂欢 $SAMSUNG $SKHY $NVDA

The better the revenue, the harder it falls—this earnings season, who is still doing the “earnings beat expectations = buy” play?

Do you have people like this around you?

Earnings come out: revenue beats expectations, profits beat expectations, cloud business grows 82%—no second thoughts, they rush in to “buy the dip.”

Then the next day they wake up and their account is down 15%.

On July 23, the U.S. stock market’s “Magnificent Seven” saw a combined $797 billion in market value evaporate in a single day—the worst day since the April 2025 tariff storm.

Tesla plunged 15%, Google fell 7%, Amazon dropped 4.6%, Meta slid 3.4%, and Microsoft fell 2.3%. The Nasdaq fell 2.15% and the S&P 500 dropped 1.21%.

Since the late-May peak, the index for the seven has now cumulatively fallen 11%, with about $2 trillion in market value wiped out.

Who did it?

It was precisely those two earnings reports that “beat revenue expectations.”

Google’s Q2 revenue was $119.8 billion, up 24% year over year. Its cloud business surged 82%, and backlogged orders topped $514 billion. Net profit beat expectations by 216%.

Tesla’s revenue was $28.2 billion, up 26% year over year, and for the first time in the past 12 months its cumulative revenue broke through $100 billion.

Take any one of these figures out on its own, and it’s all “good news.”

But the market didn’t even look at it.

The market is focused on a different set of numbers—

Google’s quarterly capital expenditures were $44.9 billion, and its full-year guidance was raised from $180 billion to $205 billion. Free cash flow was -$5.9 billion—the first time it has turned negative in more than 20 years since listing.

Tesla’s quarterly capital expenditures were $5.8 billion, up 142% year over year. Free cash flow was -$1.1 billion.

The better the revenue, the more it burns. The more it burns, the harder it falls.

That’s the new pricing logic.

“The real issue is the current scale of spending—no one knows exactly what the return on investment is.”

Google CEO Sundar Pichai said: “AI returns are still in the early stage.”

Translation: Keep burning—don’t ask when you’ll make money.

Musk said directly that 2026 will be “a year of huge capital expenditure,” and the CFO added the finishing blow: free cash flow is not expected to turn positive until 2029.

From now to 2029—four years of continuous money burning.

What’s even more painful?

Amazon fell 4.6% on Thursday—it didn’t even release its earnings.

Just because Google raised capex to $205 billion, the market assumed Amazon would follow suit and ramp up spending as well. Earlier this year, Amazon said its capital expenditures would be $200 billion, and analysts have already started predicting it will be raised to $210 billion.

If you don’t speak up, the market will do the falling for you.

It’s like a class exam: your deskmate turns in their paper and says, “I scored $10 billion by guessing,” and the teacher instantly deducts 10 points from you.

“Investors are feeling deeply worried because these companies seem to be destroying, with their own hands, the most successful, most expansion-friendly, and most investor-friendly business model in U.S. stock market history.”

That’s harsh—but it’s also true.

Over the past decade, the core narrative for tech giants was a money-printing machine—revenue growth, profit expansion, strong cash flow, and stock buybacks.

Now what?

The money printer has become a confetti cannon.

So how did those people who do “earnings beat expectations = buy” fare this time?

Google fell 3% after hours first, then another 7% the next day. Down 10% in two days.

Tesla fell 4% after hours, then another 15% the next day. Down nearly 20% in two days.

You see “revenue beats expectations” and you charge in. The next morning you wake up with 15% less in your account.

You thought it was a bargain purchase. In reality, it was becoming the bag-holder.

And the cruel part is: this is only just beginning.

Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon are scheduled to report this week.

Microsoft is the only giant expected to generate positive cash flow even after doubling its capital expenditures this year. But its Q3 capex is already $31.9 billion, with full-year guidance at $190 billion.

Meta has already set its 2026 capital expenditures at $125 billion to $145 billion.

Amazon starts at $200 billion.

Every earnings report is a ticking time bomb.

Do you ask whether AI has a future? It does.

Google’s cloud backlogged orders are $514 billion—equivalent to five times annualized revenue. Real demand exists; it’s not a bubble.

But the capital market doesn’t have the patience to wait four years for you.

After the “burn money for the future” story has been told for three years, investors have started asking a more realistic question:

“When exactly do you start making money?”

What this earnings season teaches us:

Stop focusing on “revenue beats expectations.”

Focus on capital expenditures. Focus on free cash flow.

Because the market has already told you at a cost of $797 billion—

The better the performance, the harder it burns. The harder it burns, the more it falls.#直通IPO第二期JerseyMikes #夏日创作营 #Gate事件合约首发狂欢 $GOOGL $TSLA $META

Robinhood is currently in talks about partnering with another party to provide a prediction market collaboration. If it is successfully implemented, Robinhood users will be able to directly participate in the prediction market products provided in the future. This means Robinhood is further expanding its prediction market presence and is no longer limited to Kalshi.

Oil prices break 100, and the Fed can’t sleep all night: BTC just caught its breath, and another bucket of cold water has been thrown on it

Have you felt these past couple days that—BTC just stabilized at 65k and you can finally breathe?

Wake up.

Brent crude has climbed back above $100.

On July 2 it was still down at $70; in just three weeks it surged more than $30, with a gain close to 40%. On July 23, it briefly touched $102 intraday. On July 24, the close officially moved above $100.69.

The market fears not oil hitting 100, but how it gets to 100.

This time is different.

The Strait of Hormuz—an essential route for roughly one-quarter of global seaborne oil shipments—has seen vessel traffic fall to zero.

You read that right: zero.

Iran has vowed: as long as U.S. forces are still in the region, the strait will stay closed. The U.S. military has carried out strikes against Iran for the 13th consecutive night. Both sides are escalating.

Meanwhile, the Houthis attacked Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, directly threatening the Strait of Mandeb. Media estimates say: with both straits obstructed at the same time, about 25% of global crude supply faces uncertainty.

One Hormuz is already deadly—now Mandeb is at risk too.

Goldman Sachs warns: if disruptions to Hormuz persist, Brent could break $120 in the fourth quarter.

What does that mean for BTC?

Not the oil price itself, but the chain reaction that the oil price triggers.

Oil prices are a core driver of global inflation. June CPI just fell by 0.4%—and the market was happy. Then oil prices jumped straight up by 30%+.

Economist Peter Schiff has already warned that July CPI could bring an “inflation shock.”

Meaning: the illusion that inflation cooled last month may be undone within a month.

And the most lethal part is timing—July’s CPI data won’t be released until August 12. But the Fed meets on July 28-29.

The Fed has to make rate decisions without seeing the latest inflation data.

CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis-point hike in July has already climbed to 37.9%.

A week ago, that number was almost zero.

With Brent breaking $100, U.S. Treasury yields breaking 4.7%, and the dollar pushing above 101—three big mountains are pressing down at the same time.

Rate cuts? Completely off the table.

What the market is debating now isn’t “when to cut rates,” but whether to “raise rates again.”

What does this mean for crypto assets?

Short term: bearish.

Higher rates lasting longer = liquidity stays tight = BTC risk premium comes under pressure. The logic chain is straightforward: oil prices rise → inflation rebounds → the Fed won’t dare to ease → the dollar strengthens → global liquidity tightens → risk assets get bled.

In the last 24 hours, more than 80k people were liquidated in the crypto market, with liquidation amounts totaling $275 million. BTC has been repeatedly struggling around $65,000.

This isn’t your problem—it’s macro speaking.

But things aren’t that simple.

If the market starts pricing “stagflation”—high inflation with weak growth—the script could flip.

In 2022, during the Russia-Ukraine war, BTC couldn’t hold up and fell worse than anyone else. But BTC in 2026 is not BTC in 2022. Spot ETFs have written it into mainstream institutions’ risk-control models.

If the conflict keeps going for more than a month, what the market tests won’t be liquidity, but whether BTC can truly absorb safe-haven demand.

Only then does the “digital gold” story face a real stress test for the first time.

Oil at $100 is a near-term straitjacket for BTC, but a mid-term narrative catalyst.

The key isn’t how high the oil price goes. The key is which story the market prices first—fear of tighter liquidity, or a collapse in fiat credit.

This week, the market is voting with its feet.

Are you the one that gets knocked out by short-term volatility, or the one who can hold until the narrative switch?

2:00 a.m. on July 30, the Fed releases the results. #直通IPO第二期JerseyMikes #夏日创作营 #布伦特原油重返100美元 $BTC $BZ $CL

A legendary old post from an early crypto forum on Baidu Tieba
May 7, 2017
A thread starter bought ten million Dogecoin at a price of 0.006
He made a vow: Please all witness me becoming a millionaire, and I will never sell off or abandon even one
Do you think this cycle, Doge still has a chance to recreate the glory from back then?

CLARITY Collapse Inside Story: It’s not that it’s too late—it’s that they don’t want to give it to you—Washington’s “dragging out” tactics

Brothers, over the past week, the crypto world rode a textbook “hope—disappointment” roller coaster.

On July 22, Senate Republicans finally released the full text of the CLARITY bill—616 pages, with 104 provisions.

The industry erupted. After waiting nearly two years for a federal regulatory framework, it finally looked like it was taking shape.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said that without a federal framework, bad actors would only hurt consumers in places like FTX and push the industry overseas. The Blockchain Association and the Digital Chamber urged the Senate to “seize this opportunity.”

On Polymarket, the odds of it being signed into law in 2026 once bounced back to 39%. While it’s still far lower than the 74% at the start of the year, at least it looks like there’s still a chance.

However, the script flipped completely within 24 hours.

That evening, July 24, seven Democratic senators who had previously been involved in the negotiations issued a joint statement: “The text proposed by Republicans still has deficiencies. The key provisions involving ethics for elected officials, consumer protection, conflicts of interest, and market integrity must be strengthened.”

Then yesterday, July 24, Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn directly cut the probability of passage in 2026 from 50% to 30%.

The Senate Majority Leader Teune publicly said that the bill most likely won’t make it before the August recess.

In a week, it went from “it’s finally coming” to “basically no chance this year.”

So what exactly happened?

Many people blame it on “not enough time.” On August 7 the recess begins— even if lawmakers work through the weekend to hammer out negotiations, they still wouldn’t make it in time to complete the Senate process and return to the House.

But let me tell you—this isn’t an efficiency problem. It’s political math.

Unpacking three truths:

First, the ethics provisions are a smokescreen—the real battleground is “who helps whom.”

In the updated version, the ethics provisions aren’t weak at all: they prohibit the president, vice president, members of Congress, and federal judges from issuing or sponsoring digital assets during their term; they also require officials to sell their holdings or put them into blind trusts.

But Democrats are locked on two points: first, enforcement power would go only to the Department of Justice, not to state attorneys general; second, the provisions expire in 2029.

Senator Alsobrooks’s exact words were to give “full enforcement power” to the Department of Justice—“wild and unserious and stone crazy” (wild, not serious, totally insane).

Translation: The Trump DOJ would enforce ethics provisions against Trump? Are you kidding me?

Trump’s 2025 financial disclosures show its crypto-related income exceeds $1.4 billion. About $635 million came from the TRUMP meme coin, and more than $500 million came from World Liberty Financial. How could Democrats possibly allow “the regulated to set the rules themselves”?

Second, this isn’t a disagreement over “whether to regulate,” but over the calculation of “who gets the votes.”

2026 is a midterm election year. Any bill “backing” the crypto industry, in Democrats’ view, is delivering ammunition to Trump.

Trump has already treated crypto as his own political achievement. What Republicans want is the narrative that “we pushed through crypto legislation.” What Democrats want is the narrative that “we blocked the Trump family’s transfer of interests.”

Both sides are using this bill as campaign advertising. Who cares whether the industry lives or dies?

Third, even if a miracle happens tomorrow, it’s still too late.

Thorn said the real deadline is July 30, not August 7—because the process itself takes several days.

Republicans’ reliable votes are only around 50. They’re still 10 votes short of the 60 needed to break the filibuster and long debate. And the seven Democratic negotiating representatives have already publicly said “no.”

Even if the two sides miraculously reach an agreement over the weekend—when Congress returns in September, the agenda will be thoroughly crowded out by the budget bill, the National Defense Authorization Act, and preparations for the midterm elections.

The 2026 legislative window is effectively—and permanently—closed.

So, what should we do?

Instead of waiting for Washington’s charity, we should embrace the SEC’s blade—at least where the blade falls, the rules are clear.

The SEC is moving forward with three new rules covering token offerings, broker-dealer custody, and market structure for trading venues. California’s Digital Financial Assets law took effect on July 1. State licensing frameworks are starting to take shape.

In a time without a federal safety blanket, the crypto industry isn’t without experience.

But let me remind you—

If CLARITY stalls today, what about tomorrow? If they restart in 2027, the political landscape could be completely different by then.

The biggest risk in this industry has never been that regulation is too strict—it’s that regulation will never come.

Uncertainty is the real killer. #直通IPO第二期JerseyMikes #夏日创作营 #Gate事件合约首发狂欢 $BTC $WLFI $TRUMP

Bitcoin sitting at #13 among the world’s largest assets, ahead of Tesla and Samsung.

No CEO. No headquarters. No country behind it.

Just a decentralized network valued at $1.28T.

Still wild to see how far $BTC has come.

#SummerCreationCamp

$UNI Market Update

Uniswap ($UNI) is displaying solid bullish momentum, currently trading at $3.843 (+2.26%) after climbing back from a local low of $3.754.

Key Statistics:
24h Range: $3.723 – $3.880
24h Volume: 1.18M UNI ($4.54M USDT)

Catalyst Watch:

Price action is supported by news of Uniswap’s RWA Expansion, introducing permissioned pools designed for institutional adoption.

As buyers absorb selling pressure near $3.820, bulls are eyeing a retest of the recent peak at $3.858 and the 24h high at $3.880.

Will $UNI sustain this momentum?
#SummerCreationCamp #GateSquare

$BTC ‌ 👀
Most traders are watching the drop… but the real question is, who is quietly stepping in?

After the recent pullback, Bitcoin is showing strength again around the $63K support zone. Buyers are defending this level and preventing a deeper correction, keeping the bigger structure intact.

Current Outlook:

• $63K support is holding strong
• Buyers are protecting the demand zone
• A confirmed bounce could open the path toward $65K–$66K
• As long as $63K holds, the bullish structure remains valid

Trade Bias: LONG 📈

Strong support zones often create the best opportunities when patience meets proper risk management.

Always DYOR and never risk your full capital on one trade.

Future trading is highly risky.

#SummerCreationCamp

The longest HODL I've ever done. $ANSEM
I now buy without looking at the price and I don't keep track of the profit or loss situation. Because patience always pays off.
@blknoiz06 cooked and we’re eating. Paper hands left, diamond hands forever 💎💪🏻😎