$62,700 BTC—A rare signal appeared
First, look at the surface: bearish pressure is piling up, and panic is spreading.
On August 3, BTC was at $62,700, down 1.26% over 24 hours. It has retreated more than 50% from the October 2025 high of 126k. YTD is down 28%, and 1 year is down 44%. Market cap has shrunk to $1.26 trillion. The price has fallen to around the 200-week moving average. The monthly RSI is 43. Trading volume is shrinking—either it’s forming a bottom, or it’s headed for a breakdown.
First thing: Coldcard was swept for 90 million, but you might be getting fooled.
A hardware wallet firmware vulnerability caused $70 million–$90 million to be drained, involving thousands of wallets. The media exploded: “Bitcoin isn’t safe! Run!”
Sounds scary? But take a close look—this is a firmware issue with the hardware wallet, not the Bitcoin network being breached.
Second thing: MicroStrategy has losses, but the real problem is that the “buy only, never sell” narrative is loosening.
Strategy recorded a large loss in Q2 due to BTC fair value changes, and it clearly stated that in the future it may sell BTC to replenish its U.S. dollar reserves, support preferred stock dividends, or repurchase shares.
This is the first time in four years that MicroStrategy has eased up and said it “may sell.”
But the real value is that it gives the market a reason to test the 60,000 “iron bottom.”
Third thing: a “super bullish signal” you probably never noticed.
The share of supply held by short-term holders has fallen to 23.5%.
Short-term speculators are decreasing, and the coins are shifting hands—from “easy panic sellers” to “the ones who refuse to sell no matter what.”
Historically, whenever this number drops below 25%, it has always marked a major mid-term bottom.
Fourth thing: macro pressure is heavy, but August may reverse.
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% on July 29, with three votes in favor of a hike. At one point, the probability of a rate hike in September surged to 60%–80%.
August 7: Non-Farm Payrolls data
August 12: CPI data
If the data comes in soft (inflation cools, employment weakens), the Fed will instantly switch from “hawkish” to “dovish,” and BTC could take off in an instant.
Although August is a seasonally weak month for crypto, a weak season plus low prices equals the best dip-buying window. In August 2023 and August 2024, it played out the same way.
Bulls vs. bears—see it for yourself.
On one side:
Short-term holders’ supply share is 23.5%, a historical low—holdings are highly concentrated
Price is near the 200-week moving average (~63,000)—historically strong support
Long-term holders’ supply continues to rise; HODLers are accumulating
Cumulative ETF net inflows are still $50 billion—institutions haven’t run
If CPI/Non-Farm Payrolls skew soft, rate-cut expectations will spark a rebound
On the other side:
MicroStrategy has hinted it “may sell BTC,” loosening the institutional narrative
The Coldcard incident reinforces security concerns
Three votes for a rate hike, with a 60%–80% probability of a hike in September
If it breaks below 61,000, it could accelerate to 57,000–55,000
Key levels
Overhead resistance: 63,500–64,000 → 65,000–67,000 → 69,000–72,000
Below support: 62,400–62,500 → 61,000–62,000 → 60,000 → 57,000–58,000
Short-term traders:
Go long in batches at 61,800–62,500 with a stop loss at 60,800, targets 63,500–65,000, and some positions could be held for 67,000. Reduce exposure or try shorting near 65,000–67,000, and use a strict stop loss.
Swing traders:
Wait for the daily candles to expand in volume and reclaim 65,000 before chasing longs on the right side, targeting 70,000+. If there is a confirmed, effective breakdown below 61,000 and it holds, the bearish target is 58,000–55,000.
Long-term believers:
Around the 200-week moving average (below 63,000) is a historically strong window for dollar-cost averaging. The target by end of 2026 is 80,000–90,000, and in 2027 it could be 100,000+.
History tells you this:
Every bull cycle starts when “everyone thinks it’s all over.”
End of 2018, end of 2022, August 2024—wasn’t any of them packed with bad news? Wasn’t any of them “Bitcoin is going to zero”?
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