Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

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Microsoft cuts $15 billion in spending, shares jump 8%—but the truth may be the one you got wrong

Microsoft’s just-released earnings report looks fantastic.

But the most explosive part is this:

Microsoft’s 2026 capital expenditure guidance is cut from $190 billion to $175 billion.

That’s a full $15 billion less.

After-hours share price jumps by more than 8%. The market is cheering—“The AI money-burning boom is finally cooling down!”

But I want to tell you a painful fact:

Not a single dollar of that $15 billion was actually cut.

What does that mean?

Microsoft extends the depreciation life of its data center assets from 15 years to 25 years.

At the same time, it converts some finance leases into operating leases.

Put these two moves together, and the capital expenditure number on the books drops by $15 billion.

But CFO Amy Hood says it clearly on the call: the actual investment plan remains unchanged.

In the fourth quarter, capital expenditures were $41 billion, up 69% year over year. It opened 88 new data centers in the past year.

The GPUs that should be bought weren’t reduced at all, and the data centers that should be built weren’t reduced either.

It just changed an accounting method, making the statements look a bit better.

That’s it.

Microsoft “cut” $15 billion (in reality, it didn’t), and the stock rises 8%.

Meanwhile, Google raised its capital expenditure to $205 billion, and its stock fell 7%.

Meta also raised the lower bound of spending, and its stock fell by more than 7%.

Right now, the market rewards companies that look “restrained,” and punishes companies that “tell the truth” that they’re still burning money.

Burning money is the same—

The ones that can do the books go up.

The ones that can’t do the books go down.

But the most outrageous move is this:

Microsoft stretches data center depreciation from 15 years to 25 years.

AI chips get replaced in 18 months.

The GPUs installed in a single data center become outdated in two years.

So you depreciate them over 25 years?

Economist David Woo directly said: “The AI bubble has officially burst.”

No need to be that dramatic, though.

But let me ask one question:

A thing that gets retired in 18 months—you’re telling me you can use it for 25 years. Do you believe that?

Someone asks: what does this have to do with me?

It has a lot to do with you.

Moody’s has already raised its 2026 capex forecast for six mega-scale cloud providers to $785 billion. In 2027, it’s headed straight for $1 trillion.

The money is really being burned—it’s just not visible on the books.

If you’re investing in AI-related assets—whether it’s Nvidia’s stock, or tokens tied to AI infrastructure—

the financial report numbers you’re looking at may be misleading you.

Here’s the harsh truth:

Microsoft’s move is textbook-level “accounting beautification.”

Hide the reality of money burning inside 25-year depreciation, and disguise the real spending as “restraint.”

The market rewarded this disguise.

So who’s next to follow?

Google? Meta? Amazon?

When everyone is learning this trick of “hiding the real spending,” then—

which number in the financial statements can you still trust?#Gate独家美股0费率 #USD1持币生息最高8% #美伊举行谈判油价显著下跌 $MSFT $GOOGL $METAG

The first trade of August is going pretty well—will it be a bright start?
For the short term, I’ll hold a bit more; it feels like there’s still room. My next target is to watch 1800 first.

Big earnings “bombs” hit this week! With SpaceX’s first quarterly report plus the Non-Farm Payrolls, US stocks face a major turning point:

Monday, August 3
1. Palantir $PLTR
Released after the close. Consensus calls for EPS of about $0.34–0.35 and revenue of about $1.81B (YoY +80–81%), near/slightly above its own guidance. The key focus is on a two-engine drive from both the US government and commercial business (especially the conversion from AIP execution, plus a rebound in commercial growth), Rule of 40 / gross margin / FCF, and room for an upward revision to full-year guidance. If commercial results beat expectations and high growth plus guidance raises continue, there is significant upside for earnings estimates and the stock could see a strong rebound (implied volatility about ±12–15%); if commercial results miss expectations or valuation concerns dominate, it could pull back.

Tuesday, August 4
2. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) $AMD
released after the close. Consensus calls for EPS of about $1.61–1.62 and revenue of about $11.3B (YoY +47%), roughly at the midpoint of its own guidance (about $11.2B ± $0.3B). The key focus is on data center contribution (Instinct AI accelerators + EPYC CPUs), gross margin (guidance about 56%), client/embedded performance, and second-half / full-year guidance. If AI accelerators beat expectations and gross margin holds steady or improves, there is room for an upward revision to earnings estimates and the stock could continue to rally (implied volatility about ±8–10%); if data center growth slows or competitive concerns rise, it could pull back.
3. SpaceX $SPCX released after the close (its first quarterly earnings report). Consensus calls for revenue of about $6.8–6.9B and EPS of about -$0.20 to -$0.35 (still loss-making). The key focus is on Starlink user and revenue growth and profit margins, Space launch performance, progress on AI/compute leasing, Starship progress, and capital expenditures / cash burn. If Starlink continues to grow rapidly and losses remain controllable (investment rather than deterioration), the stock could stabilize and rebound (implied volatility is larger, about ±10–15%+, due to the new listing and the lock-up period nearing); if losses widen or growth misses expectations, it could face pressure.

Wednesday, August 5
4. SanDisk $SNDK released after the close (fiscal Q4). Consensus calls for EPS of $33–35 and revenue of about $8.3–8.5B (YoY +340%+), near/slightly above its own guidance (revenue $7.75–8.25B, EPS $30–33). The key focus is on NAND pricing and supply-demand, enterprise SSD / AI storage demand, gross margin, and next-year guidance and forward-looking commentary for investors. If pricing and demand beat expectations and guidance is strong, there is significant upside for earnings estimates and the stock could surge (implied volatility about ±20–25%); if inventory/pricing misses expectations, it could see a sharp pullback.
5. Western Digital $WDC
released after the close (fiscal Q4). Consensus calls for EPS of $3.3–3.35 and revenue of about $3.7B (YoY +40%+), roughly in line with its own guidance. The key focus is on HDD / flash pricing and AI data center demand, gross margin (guidance about 51–52%), inventory and supply-demand balance, and the outlook for the second half. If pricing and shipments beat expectations and gross margin stays steady, there is room for an upward revision to earnings estimates and the stock could continue to perform strongly (implied volatility about ±12–16%); if demand or pricing misses expectations, it could pull back.

Friday, August 7
6. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP, July data)
Consensus calls for +85K new jobs (prior +57K) and unemployment around 4.3% (prior 4.2%), with average hourly earnings up about +0.3% month-over-month. The key focus is on employment resilience versus cooling signals, wage growth, and labor force participation. If it massively beats expectations (strong jobs + hot wages), it would reinforce hawkish Fed expectations, weighing on stocks and bonds and strengthening the dollar; if it clearly misses expectations (weak jobs + rising unemployment), it would boost expectations for rate cuts and risk assets could benefit. Overall impact on the broad market’s implied volatility is moderate, but it is more impactful for rate-sensitive sectors.

$BTC is sitting at an important crossroads after closing the week between major support and resistance.

The lower timeframe isn't giving much confidence to the bulls.

Price is moving through a small H4 channel, and the current structure still favors further downside.

A decisive breakout from this range will.

#GateStocksZeroFees

72 hours. Three hurdles. The bill hasn’t even been put on the table yet.

August 3rd, Monday.

The Senate released this week’s agenda.

The CLARITY bill is not on it.

Instead, there will be a procedural vote on the H.R.6500 continuing resolution.

August 7th, the Senate adjourns.

Time left for the bill: 72 hours.

But the problem is—

They can’t even reach the starting line.

Do you think 72 hours is long?

Let me break down the Senate’s inhuman procedure for you.

First hurdle: Submitting a cloture motion requires 16 senators’ signatures.

16 people. Sounds like not many? But this is a request to “end debate”—meaning you have to persuade 16 senators to agree to, “Stop talking—go straight to a vote.”

Second hurdle: The cloture vote requires 60 votes.

Out of 100 senators—three-fifths. Even if every Republican votes yes (53 votes), you still need at least 7 Democrats.

Just 7 people.

Those 7 are what have stalled the bill for two months.

Third hurdle: Even if cloture passes, there’s still another 30 hours of debate.

30 hours. After the debate ends, they vote only on whether to move into consideration—not on the bill itself.

Even if they give the green light all the way, the earliest cloture vote would be Friday (August 7th).

Then what? They adjourn.

The bill itself? They haven’t even started reviewing it.

Now do you understand where the problem is?

Wednesday (August 5th) is the last chance to file a cloture motion.

Thursday? Too late. Friday? They adjourn.

So—if before Wednesday there aren’t 16 signatures, this bill doesn’t even get the chance to be “voted down.” It dies in its cradle.

What does the market think?

Today, BTC is holding steady in the $63,000–$63,500 range.

But don’t let the numbers fool you—the trading volume has plunged by 71%.

Neither bulls nor bears dare to move.

Why? Because everyone is waiting for one signal: whether the bill is still even in play.

On Polymarket, the probability that the bill passes in 2026 is **31%**.

Earlier this year, this figure was 74%.

Galaxy Research is even harsher—cutting straight from 50% to 30%.

30%. One-third.

Do you know what that means?

The market believes the probability the bill passes is even lower than the odds of guessing heads or tails correctly by flipping a coin.

To put it bluntly—

Last week, Grayscale was still urging the Senate to quickly take the vote. The Treasury Secretary, Bessent, publicly called for it. Industry representatives have collectively contacted Congress more than 1 million times.

Does it help?

As soon as Monday’s agenda came out—there was nothing.

Both parties are still arguing about ethics provisions, still arguing about stablecoin yield, still arguing about whether officials can issue coins.

A 616-page bill gets stuck on just a few words.

The Trump family made $1.2 billion from crypto. Democrats say you made too much and we don’t trust this bill. Republicans say the provisions can be changed, but the vote should be scheduled first.

Both sides are performing.

The most crucial line—

Even if procedural votes are initiated this week, they can only leave “a placeholder” after the September reconvening.

September reconvening? There are still two months until the midterm elections.

By then, who will have time to manage your crypto bill?

The probability of passage in 2026 is shrinking hour by hour.

If you’re still holding a large bag of altcoins, betting on the next wave of a pump after the bill passes—

You’re betting on something with a 72% chance of not happening.

Jiang Zhuoer says that if the CLARITY bill cannot pass before the adjournment, Bitcoin may complete the final leg of its bearish bottoming.

The $62,000–$63,000 range has an 8% concentration of order-book liquidity, similar to what it looked like right before the 2022 FTX blowup.

High concentration + a negative catalyst = violent redistribution.

You are not holding. You are waiting to be redistributed. #Gate独家美股0费率 #USD1持币生息最高8% #美伊举行谈判油价显著下跌 $BTC $ETH $SOL

The odds of the Federal Reserve raising rates in September have been hyped to above 80%, and the plot twist is downright ridiculous.
Not long ago, everyone was betting on rate cuts, but then due to geopolitical tug-of-war in the Middle East and a sudden surge in oil prices, the Fed’s internal debate flipped—9 to 3—sparring so fiercely that Waller even called it a proper-sounding family feud. Now the market has immediately repriced a September rate hike, and BTC and those crypto-related concept stocks got slapped.
What’s most real is that BTC is currently stuck, fighting to the death between $62k and $65k.
A bunch of people had been touting “digital gold” and safe-haven assets, but once geopolitical risk kicked in, gold and silver surged—while BTC fell right along with U.S. stocks. This high-beta risk-asset trait can’t be masked at all.
Only then did I realize: the real damage from this round of rate-hike expectations isn’t just suppressing crypto prices—it’s directly colliding with the earnings season for U.S. tech giants.
Just a few of the biggest players have already splashed nearly $750 billion on AI in capital expenditures alone; then when companies like Google and Meta burn a bit too much, the market immediately flips and slams them with a selloff—only Microsoft’s reduced guidance barely kept it afloat.
If September really pushes rates up again, with financing costs higher, the market’s tolerance for “burn money on AI to buy growth” is absolutely going to break down. If U.S. tech stocks get repriced, the liquidity-withdrawal effect on $BTC and $MSTR —those high-leverage concept stocks—will likely be far more painful than a mere 25-basis-point hike.
Let’s see how the big shots react to the August 12 CPI and the Jackson Hole annual event—right now, though, all the funds have pulled back into a wait-and-see stance, and the liquidity drain is driving people crazy.
#美联储 #BTC #美股 #宏观经济

It’s been a long time since I’ve gotten to know new partners. #BlueV mutual promotion For everyone’s account, simply gaining followers is just the foundation. I’m more excited to build meaningful two-way connections, and to have more overlap with friends who are in sync. As long as you follow me, I’ll follow back ❤️

Circle’s $USDC Treasury under Circle has newly minted 250 million USDC on the Solana chain. It should be noted that the increase in USDC supply does not necessarily mean that funds have already flowed into the market; it is mainly inventory prepared in advance for subsequent issuance, redemptions, and liquidity needs. However, if these USDC later continue to flow into exchanges or DeFi protocols, it often means that on-chain capital activity is likely to further improve.

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I asked GPT to help me整理資料, and in the middle it popped up a permission request. I accidentally just clicked Allow. Only after I clicked did I realize that this thing now doesn’t just chat—it can also read files, run code, open web pages, and even operate the operating system on someone’s behalf. Right when the EU is starting to look into safety issues in talks with OpenAI and Anthropic @OpenAI的测试智能体曾逃出沙盒访问外部系统, Anthropic has also disclosed that @claudeai模型在安全评估中未经授权进入三家真实机构. In the past, people were afraid the AI wouldn’t get work done. Now people are starting to be afraid it can do too much—and no one knows when it should be stopped.

This is actually very similar to token-wallet authorizations in crypto. You authorize a smart contract; the original intent is only to let it complete a transaction. But if you grant too much permission and leave it enabled for too long, when something goes wrong later, it may not be limited to just that one transaction. AI agents are the same: you give them a goal, then allow browser access, code access, email and file permissions, and it will find a way to finish the task. The issue may not be that the AI suddenly becomes self-aware; more likely, humans gave it too many keys and forgot to tell it which doors it must not open.

So I think the next round of AI competition can’t only look at how smart the models are. It also needs to look at whether permissions can be tiered, whether there’s a record for every step, and whether it can be forcibly stopped if it goes out of bounds. In the future, when companies buy AI agents, the real questions may not be “How much work can it do for me?” but “What permissions does it have, and who is responsible if it does something wrong?” Crypto has already taught us countless times through thefts that the more convenient the tool is, the more you can’t just casually click authorization.

So it’s basically just buying high and selling low, huh? 😂 Arthur Hayes—wasn’t it just the other morning two days ago, when he cut his losses and sold 2,364 ETH at a price of $1,821? And just today, he bought back again at a higher price: through OTC, he converted 5 million USDC into 2,675.6 ETH at a price of $1,869.

$GRVT standardizing momentum!

$GRVT is showing strong bullish momentum, currently trading at $0.27699 (+5.87%) after a sudden breakout!

Key metrics from the 15m chart:
24h High: $0.29160
24h Low: $0.23221
24h Volume: 232.45M GRVT ($60.23M USDT turnover)

After establishing a solid base near the $0.25850 support level, buyers stepped in heavily to push the price past $0.29.

The chart is consolidating right above $0.276 are we getting ready for another push toward new highs?

Keep an eye on this move!#GateStocksZeroFees #BitcoinSmallTransfersHitPostFTXHigh

Brothers, there are four earnings reports we need to watch this week.

Palantir after the close on August 3

AMD + SpaceX after the close on August 4

Circle before the open on August 5

Tech stocks and crypto stocks are crashing into each other.

And it’s not the right timing.

Last round, tech giants all handed in their papers together—Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Apple; revenues all beat expectations. So what happened?

📈 Microsoft rose 15.5%, setting a record for the single-day market cap increase for US-listed stocks

📈 Amazon was up more than 9% at one point after the close

📉 Meta fell more than 9%

📉 Apple fell more than 4% after the close

The difference isn’t the numbers for the quarter—it’s the guidance for the next quarter.

On the crypto side, three sets of papers have already been submitted:

❌ Coinbase: Q2 revenue $1.22 billion, down about 19% year over year, and down 14% quarter over quarter, below the expected $1.29 billion. Net loss $359 million, losing for three straight quarters. Down 5.3% after hours.

❌ Robinhood: total revenue hit a record $1.31 billion, up 32% year over year—looks good, right? But crypto revenue plunged 38% to $100 million. Even more painful: forecast market revenue was $156 million, for the first time with crypto and stock trading both exceeding each other. Retail investors aren’t even betting on coins anymore.

✅ Tether: net operating profit $1.5 billion, nearly 50% higher than Q1. USDT circulating supply is $184.6 billion, and its market share is up to over 60%. Gold holdings are 146 tons—more than many central banks.

Three have already turned in their reports, two are underperforming, and one is winning outright.

❓ There’s only Circle left— the final card in stablecoins.

Wall Street expects Circle Q2 revenue of $717 million, +3.3% quarter over quarter; EPS forecast is $0.164. USDC circulating supply at the end of Q1 is $77 billion, up 28% year over year.

But the problem is—Circle’s Q1 EPS didn’t even meet market expectations. Can it turn things around this time?

To be honest:

Tech giants have already proven that—numbers beating expectations don’t matter; the guidance for the next quarter is what’s deadly.

Crypto has already proven that—trading revenue is collapsing, and only stablecoins are winning outright.

Circle is this week’s last card. How good it is will directly decide the tone of the entire crypto market next week. #Gate独家美股0费率 #USD1持币生息最高8% #Strategy二季度亏损82亿美元 $BTC $SPCX $AMD

My first design for the next-generation Meme: Let the Meme start to have assets, and build a Treasury project that belongs to the Meme community. Revenue generated by the project: trading fees, brand partnerships, and ecosystem income. Part of it goes into the Treasury. The Treasury holds real-world assets: U.S. stocks, gold, Treasury bond ETFs... All assets are openly transparent and verifiable on-chain. Over time, this Meme...

The US and Iran are back at the negotiating table, and crypto markets have received a “complex positive”

Last Friday, Trump was still posting on social media, shouting “the gun is loaded,” and vowing to launch “the most unprecedented military strike since World War II” against Iran. The US State Department even issued safety warnings to US citizens in the Middle East, urging them to “consider leaving the area.”

Then what? In less than 48 hours, the script was completely flipped.

On Air Force One, Trump announced: cancel the strikes, negotiate on Monday. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar all urged de-escalation together, and Iran also “requested cancellation.”

As soon as the news broke—

Brent crude plunged 7.3% intraday, at one point hitting a low of $81.55.

WTI crude fell below $80.

The nearly 25% monthly gain in July gave back almost one third in a single day.

What about Bitcoin? It rose.

Bitcoin broke above $63,000; Ethereum rose more than 2%, and SOL rose more than 3%. US stock index futures jumped, and gold broke above $4,080.

Social media was full of cheers: “Peace is here! Risk assets are taking off!”

Don’t be so fast. This “peace” for Bitcoin isn’t that simple.

When you break it down, there are two completely opposite transmission paths:

Path A — a positive.

Oil prices plunge → inflation expectations cool → room for the Fed to cut rates opens up → liquidity improves → valuations for risk assets rise.

At the Fed’s July meeting, there were already 3 dissenting votes. Why? Because of oil prices. When oil prices surged to $100, CPI rebounded directly—how could the Fed cut rates?

Now oil prices are crashing, and the logic for rate cuts is back in place.

Path B — a negative.

Geopolitical conflict canceled → safe-haven sentiment cools → the “wartime premium” in gold and Bitcoin fades → short-term capital outflows.

Over the past few months, the fighting in the Middle East has given Bitcoin a “digital gold” safe-haven label. Now that label is being ripped off.

How is the market pricing these two paths now?

Just look at the prices—

Bitcoin is up, but only by 1%. Brent is down 7%.

Path A’s logic is at work, but the market is still hesitating.

Why the hesitation?

Because Iran said: Trump’s claim that Iran requested a stop to the attacks is “a new lie.”

Because Iran said: the situation in the Strait of Hormuz “will not return to the state before the conflict broke out.”

Because this conflict has lasted more than five months, and Trump’s “sudden reversal” is not the first time.

Bitcoin doesn’t need a world war to prove itself. What it needs is ongoing depreciation of the fiat currency system—and low oil prices, in fact, give central banks even more excuses to loosen policy.

In the short term, the fade of the safe-haven premium may put pressure on BTC. But in the medium term, the pullback in oil prices is a golden opportunity for global inflation management.

As long as “rate-cut expectations” aren’t disrupted, this round of pullback is actually a window to observe resilience.

The real question is: can this negotiation actually succeed?

Iran’s foreign minister said that talks with Oman “have entered the final stage.” Trump said there is “already an agreement” on the Strait of Hormuz.

But then an Iranian spokesperson turned around and said: the new route “doesn’t mean the Strait of Hormuz will be opened or will continue to be closed.”

One says “it has been reached.” The other says “that’s not the case.”

So today morning’s market action only reflects one thing: “we’re not going to war.”

As for whether “true peace” can actually happen—that’s the next script. #Gate独家美股0费率 #USD1持币生息最高8% #美伊举行谈判油价显著下跌 $BTC $BZ $CL

🚨 $XRP is sitting at a decision point.

Price is retesting a major breakout zone that previously sparked a 500%+ rally. If history rhymes and this support holds, the next impulse could catch many off guard.

Support first. Targets later.

Are you accumulating here or waiting for confirmation?

Storage and technology stock cycle reversal: 6 hard-core bottoming signals (avoid bottom-fishing mid-slope)
Tech and storage don’t rely on guessing bottoms from the size of the drop! A real cycle reversal must resonate across both fundamentals and technicals; only when all 6 signals are verified is it a high-certainty reversal setup.
1. Fundamental three core reversal pillars (prove the cycle’s validity)
1. Broad-based chip price increases across all categories
DRAM and NAND contract prices have risen month-over-month for 2 consecutive months, and the price hikes are spreading from high-end HBM to DDR5 and all categories of consumer-grade NAND.
Single-point price increases are just speculation; only broad-based gains across all categories reflect a genuine recovery in industry demand—this is the first key anchor for a cycle bottom.
2. Inventory clearance and capacity recovery
Top-tier manufacturers’ inventory turnover days have fallen back to within 80 days; production cuts have ended, and utilization rates are rising steadily.
Inventory oversupply is the root cause of this round of declines. Once inventory is cleared, it means the supply-demand balance has been completely reversed, and industry headwinds have been fully priced out.
3. Real orders materialize, earnings delivered
Overseas cloud providers’ server procurement has moved from framework agreements to concrete scheduling and deliveries for AI chips and storage; large-capital capex at major companies has been raised.
Breaking away from pure theme-driven speculation, order realization means the earnings inflection point is confirmed, supporting sustained upside trends.
2. Technical three confirmation signals (pin down the entry timing)
1. Weekly bottom divergence + volume expansion
The stock price makes new lows, but the weekly MACD and RSI refuse further new lows, alongside continuous heavy volume in low territory.
Bearish momentum is exhausted, and major funds accumulate at low levels—this is the clearest bottoming signal for bottom-area capital.
2. Effective breakout of the downtrend
The sector/leaders break out from the weekly descending trendline on increased volume, and they have held above it for two consecutive weeks without breaking.
Breakouts on a single day often lure buyers; holding above the trendline means the long-term downtrend has truly ended.
3. Bad news neutralized, the bottom firmly established
After a profit-warning blowup and the realization of industry headwinds, the stock price fails to make new lows and prints longer lower shadows.
Bad news not falling means all negative sentiment has been fully priced in, and the bottom range is firmly established.
Ultimate trading playbook
1. The bottom is a range, not a single point. If multiple-signal resonance is not complete, do not take a heavy position;
2. Trade only clear-cut reversals; reject left-side blind bottom guessing and bottom-fishing mid-slope;
3. Fundamentals set the direction, technicals set the buy point—both are indispensable.

7 iron rules for crypto investing:
1. Don’t panic and cut your losses
2. Take profit in batches when prices are high
3. Stay away from leverage
4. Keep some USDT to go “bottom-fishing” for him, damn it
5. Diversify and allocate your positions
6. Don’t chase after gains just because you see a big green candle
7. Panic is an opportunity

On the first working day of August
A belated August “opening red packet” 🧧
Wishing everyone to keep making money and having fun in August
$BTC $XAU