Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

Discover crypto KOL insights, community sentiment, emerging market trends, and industry trend analysis.
Mining_sLittleSheep
HYPE at $57: opportunity or trap?

Let's look at the surface first: falling from the ATH of 76 to 51 before rebounding to 57—the shakeout has been brutal.

From 76 to 57, a 25% retracement. After dropping from the July high of 70+, it bottomed at 51. It gained 3.5%-4.3% over 24 hours, with spot trading volume at $370 million and futures volume surging to $1.8 billion—a typical churn zone with "massive disagreement between bulls and bears."

The 51 support zone held, the 54-55 short-term moving averages flattened, and the 4H descending channel showed signs of a breakout, but 57-58 is pressing overhead.

First: RWA is exploding, the protocol is printing money—what are you afraid of?

After the HIP-3 markets launched, OI in tokenized stocks, commodities, and indices surged to $4.13 billion on August 4, while daily trading volume soared 229%. RWA now accounts for more than pure crypto perpetuals, becoming Hyperliquid's biggest growth engine.

The greater the trading volume, the higher the protocol fees and the stronger the buybacks.

More than 90% of fees are burned or locked through the buyback mechanism.

Second: The ETF is seeing outflows, but you may be misled.

There have been net outflows for 12 consecutive trading days, totaling approximately $29.8 million. Sounds scary, right?

But think carefully—how large is the total HYPE spot ETF? A $30 million outflow is not even a drop in the bucket compared with $1.8 billion in daily futures trading volume.

HYPE perpetual OI ranks behind BTC and ETH across the entire crypto market, firmly holding a top-three position.

Multicoin is bullish, Grayscale considers it relatively undervalued, and early institutions selling during the unlock period is perfectly normal.

Third: Technically, price has reached the most critical decision zone.

The 4H descending channel has been broken, and the price rebounded from 51 to 57, with volume rising moderately but without an explosive surge.

The 57 level happens to be where the costs of bulls and bears are most concentrated. One volume-backed bullish candle upward means 60+, while one bearish candle downward means 54.

The bulls versus the bears—you decide.

The bulls' trump cards:

RWA trading volume surged 229%, and protocol revenue reached a new high.

The buyback mechanism is aggressively absorbing the circulating supply.

The 4H descending channel breakout favors a technical recovery.

The long-term uptrend line was tested at 55-58.

The bears' chips:

ETF outflows for 12 consecutive days are weighing on sentiment.

Early unlock pressure remains.

BTC is hovering around 64k, and macro risk appetite is average.

Three attempts have failed to break through 57-58, so the technical resistance is real.

Key levels

Support: 54-55 (recent rebound starting point + trendline), 51-52 (strong demand zone; be careful if it breaks).

Resistance: 57-58 (right overhead), 60-61 (previous structure), 63+ (look toward 70 after a breakout).

Short term:

Wait for a pullback to 54.5-55.5 before trying to go long again, with a stop-loss below 52 and targets at 58-60.

A volume-backed hold above 57-58 can be chased, with a stop-loss below 55 and targets at 61-63.

Medium term:

Focus on building a position on dips, scaling in within the 54-57 range, with total exposure controlled at 10-20%.

The first target is 60-65, followed by around 70 after a breakout.

If it breaks below 50-51, reduce the position or exit.

HYPE fell from 76 to 57, down 25%, and everyone across the market is shouting "distribution."

But let me ask you a question:

A project with protocol revenue of several million dollars every day, a buyback mechanism that automatically burns tokens, an RWA narrative that has just exploded, and derivatives OI firmly in the top three—is 57 expensive or cheap?

When SOL fell from 200 to 80 in 2024, the criticism was even louder than it is now.

What happened afterward? #Gate上线宇树科技盘前合约 #美股芯片股全线大涨 #GateCard消费返现最高8% $BTC $SOL $HYPE
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alimadao
Bitcoin's CVDD just crossed $49k.

Historically, this line has been the floor bulls defend and bears dream about. Every major cycle bottom 2015, late 2018/19, 2022 carved out right around a CVDD touch. Look at the chart: price and CVDD have converged four times in 12 years, and each time it marked capitulation, not continuation.

We're not there yet. Price is still floating well above the line. But the gap is closing, and history says it won't stay open forever.

I don't know what the catalyst will be macro shock, leverage flush, liquidity crunch but CVDD doesn't lie about where smart money eventually gets tested.

$49k isn't a prediction. It's a watchlist.

DYOR

#GateLaunchesUnitreePreMarketFutures
BTC-0.67%
8
HenryInsights
Gold & Silver are pumping while everything else is dumping.
Nearly $1 Trillion added in 8 hours.
XAU+0.38%
XAG+0.47%
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Mining_sLittleSheep
Trump token faces calls for investigation from senators, but the SEC chair was appointed by Trump—is he going to investigate his own boss?

Warren and Blumenthal, two Democratic senators, formally wrote to the SEC on Monday, calling for an investigation into the Trump token, TRUMP.

The wording of the letter was harsh—“could constitute an illegal scam,” “soft rug pull,” and “illegal fraudulent conduct or facilitating improper profit.”

Sounds serious, right? 989k accounts suffered losses, with total losses of $3.81 billion. Entities affiliated with Trump earned approximately $636 million from the token. The token’s price fell 98% from its peak, while its market cap plunged from $9 billion to less than $400 million.

Nearly 1 million people lost $3.8 billion, while the president made $989k.

And then? Warren and Blumenthal went to—the SEC.

The question is: Who is the SEC chair?

Paul Atkins. Personally appointed by Trump.

They want a Trump appointee to investigate a coin issued by Trump himself.

That’s like asking the boss’s trusted aide to investigate whether the boss embezzled money. Like asking the referee’s son to call his father for a foul. Like asking a mother-in-law to decide who was right when her daughter and son-in-law argued.

This isn’t an investigation. It’s performance art.

And Atkins isn’t merely “a Trump appointee.” He is famously pro-crypto. When Trump nominated him, he called Atkins a “proven leader in common-sense regulation.” After taking office, Atkins explicitly said the SEC should “move away from an enforcement-focused regulatory approach,” and even said that “most crypto assets traded today are not securities in themselves.”

They want someone who believes that “most crypto assets are not securities” to investigate a coin he most likely believes “is not a security.”

What do you think the result will be?

What’s even funnier is that after Trump took office, the SEC itself had already issued guidance explicitly stating that meme coins have “limited uses or functionality” and do not meet the definition of securities under securities law. In March 2026, the SEC and CFTC jointly released a crypto asset classification that stated plainly in black and white: “Digital collectibles—including NFTs and meme coins—are not securities.”

In other words, the SEC has already paved the way—

“Meme coins are not securities. We don’t regulate them.”

So after Warren sends this letter, all Atkins has to do is reply: “Under the existing guidance, this token does not fall within the SEC’s jurisdiction.”

Case closed.

But is Warren stupid? No, she isn’t.

This letter was never really written to the SEC.

It was written for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which is currently under negotiation.

What is the core disputed provision of this bill? “Prohibiting senior government officials from directly participating in crypto projects.” Put simply—banning the president from issuing tokens.

Democrats want to strengthen this provision or they will oppose the bill. Republicans want to weaken it. The two sides are deadlocked.

Warren’s letter is adding leverage to the bill negotiations.

She is saying: Look, the president’s token harmed 1 million people and made $600 million, and you still won’t make “banning presidential token issuance” explicit?

This isn’t regulatory action. It’s a political weapon.

So what will the outcome be? Three possibilities:

A. The SEC declines to open an investigation → cementing the image of “insiders investigating insiders,” with Atkins saying, “Under the existing guidance, this is outside my jurisdiction.” Warren will then put it in a campaign ad for the midterm elections: “Trump’s SEC chair, appointed by Trump, is shielding Trump.”

B. The SEC opens an investigation and goes through the motions → Investigate for a year or 18 months, then let the matter quietly fade away. Drag it past the midterm elections and nothing happens. After all, the SEC is “still investigating,” so no one can accuse it of doing nothing.

C. The SEC actually investigates → An unprecedented presidential crypto investigation. But Atkins’s political position would become extremely awkward—investigate the person who appointed him? Refuse to investigate and look like he is providing cover? Either choice is a dead end.

Which one do you think it will be?

In the face of power, regulation is just a rubber stamp.

When the SEC says meme coins are not securities, it is Atkins, appointed by Trump, saying it. When the SEC says “we are moving away from enforcement,” it is also Atkins, appointed by Trump, saying it.

He sets the rules, his people enforce them, and you expect him to investigate himself?

Don’t be naive.

1 million people lost $3.8 billion, while the president made $600 million.

And then?

Then nothing happened.

That’s reality. #Gate上线宇树科技盘前合约 #美股芯片股全线大涨 #GateCard消费返现最高8% $BTC $TRUMP $WLFI
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LaughLaughYy
After trading U.S. stocks, did you make money or lose money?
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Lenadunhamm
GRVT is on the Move!

$GRVT just broke out, surging +22.67% to reach $0.32101! The pair hit a 24h high of 0.34000 following a massive spike in trading activity.

24h High: $0.34000
24h Low: $0.25833
24h Volume: 353.53M GRVT (~$94.64M USDT)

After consolidating near the $0.2600 level, strong buyers pushed price action up over +30% before settling into a slight pull back near $0.320. Massive volume is flowing in are you watching this breakout or holding for higher targets? #GateLaunchesUnitreePreMarketFutures #TetherGoldGrows9.5%
GRVT-16.00%
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Mining_sLittleSheep
80% gross margin, zero debt, revenue up 320%—yet the stock plunged 44%. Is this market crazy?

A company.

Gross margin rose from 78% to 80%, revenue grew more than 320% year over year, zero debt, and a $6 billion buyback plan.

Yet the stock has fallen 44% from its year-to-date high, nearly halving.

Would you buy it?

Tonight after the market close, SanDisk will release its FY2026 Q4 earnings report.

Wall Street expects revenue of $8.39 billion, up 41% quarter over quarter, and EPS of $33.01. Goldman Sachs directly raised its price target from $1,200 to $2,200. The company's own guidance: revenue of $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion and gross margin of 79% to 81%, while EPS in the same period last year was only $0.29.

In one year, EPS rose from $0.29 to over $30.

In any normal market, the stock should be flying.

But SanDisk didn't fly. It plunged from a high of $2,354 to around $1,300.

Why? The bears say: Memory is a highly cyclical industry, and the cycle is about to peak.

The logic sounds flawless. Historically, memory chips have gone through cycles of massive surges and crashes—shortage → price hikes → capacity expansion → oversupply → collapse. SanDisk rose 858% in 2025 and another 442% this year. After such a huge rise, massive profit-taking is inevitable, and it is perfectly normal for some investors to run for the exits. On top of that, news that Meta is selling idle computing capacity has raised market concerns that AI capital expenditures may have peaked.

The bears say: The party is over.

But the bulls have a different script.

First, AI-driven data center demand is structural growth, not cyclical fluctuation. SanDisk's data center business generated $1.47 billion in revenue last quarter, up 233% quarter over quarter and 645% year over year. This isn't being propped up by higher prices—it is real demand exploding.

Second, the company has shifted to a “long-term agreement” model. SanDisk has secured five multi-year supply agreements worth at least $42 billion in total. In the past, memory manufacturers depended on market conditions: they profited when prices rose and lost money when prices fell. Now, with long-term contracts signed, prices are locked in and cyclical volatility is smoothed out.

Third, the SK hynix CEO said personally that 2027 will be the year of the tightest supply in the history of the memory industry, and that supply shortages could continue beyond 2030. Customers are now rushing to sign long-term supply agreements because they fear they will not be able to secure products later. TrendForce forecasts that the NAND Flash market will face a supply shortfall of 4% to 5% in 2026, with the shortage expected to continue at least through the first half of 2027.

Fourth, SanDisk and SK hynix just released the first HBF standard specification yesterday. This is a new memory solution positioned between HBM and SSD, specifically designed for AI inference scenarios. The HBF alliance has already attracted giants including Google.

On one side: exploding AI demand, locked-in prices through long-term agreements, and supply shortages continuing through 2030.

On the other: “The cycle has peaked—run.”

Who do you think is right?

If SanDisk is a cyclical stock, a P/E ratio of 6.5x may be reasonable right now. After all, cyclical stocks should receive low valuations at the peak of the cycle—because the next stage is losses.

But what if SanDisk is a growth stock?

A company growing 300% annually, with an 80% gross margin and zero debt, trading at 6.5x earnings—that isn't an unjustified sell-off. That's slaughter.

People in crypto are all too familiar with this script.

When BTC fell from 69,000 to 15,000—the halving hadn't changed, institutional entry hadn't changed. The only thing that changed was sentiment.

When sol fell from 260 to 8—the ecosystem hadn't collapsed, and developers were still working. The only thing that changed was market fear.

Every time, when panic over “the cycle peaking” is at its most intense, that is precisely when the window for positioning opens.

Of course, it is also possible that this time really is different. It is also possible that the memory cycle has genuinely peaked. It is also possible that SanDisk will never recover.

Is the market pricing SanDisk as a cyclical stock, or as a growth stock?

If the former, its current valuation is reasonable.

If the latter, this is the biggest unjustified sell-off of the year.

Tonight's earnings report will reveal the answer.

Be greedy when others are fearful—but first, you have to determine whether the reason for their fear is real or merely emotional. #Gate上线宇树科技盘前合约 #美股芯片股全线大涨 #GateCard消费返现最高8% $BTC $SNDK $SKHY
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LaughingDaysYsxdct
The corresponding $MU is at 1000; this has been mentioned many times. Taking Micron as an example for the overall storage sector, 1000 is a very key rebound resistance level.
MU+4.63%
0
DirectorAnnie
$AMD Plunged 9% after the earnings report, from $520→$470.
It could very likely fall another 20% next week, with analysts turning even more bearish and targeting $360! There are 3 reasons:
1. Capital expenditures (Capex) have nearly doubled
The company has poured massive amounts of capital into building AI infrastructure, but investors care more about whether returns can be realized quickly. Returns are not yet apparent, so the market is voting with its feet first.
2. Short-term valuation is already too high
The stock has risen 5x over the past year, with a P/E of 170x and a Forward P/E of 50-70x, which is still relatively high. Although this earnings report and guidance were decent, they were far from explosive, making it difficult to continue supporting such a high price.
3. Technicals have turned bearish
The structure has shifted from higher highs and higher lows to lower highs and lower lows, with the weekly fair value band roughly around $360. In a bull market, institutions typically wait for the price to pull back to this area before continuing to buy.
AMD+10.55%
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LaughingDaysYsxdct
I hadn't drawn the Fibonacci levels before. Just looking at the chart on my phone, based on the structure, $INTC 's resistance was around 110; once I drew the Fibonacci levels, it happened to be around 0.5, making it a level worth watching; 110-120 is a resistance range, with 110 as the lower bound and 120 as the upper bound. If it can break through, the bull market may resume.
INTC+8.45%
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LaughingDaysYsxdct
$BTC Technical analysis Looking at several technical indicators I often watch: 1. On the daily timeframe, the candlesticks are currently above the short-term moving averages, including EMA21, SMA30, and SMA60; 2. On the daily timeframe, the RSI indicator has formed a golden cross, while the MACD indicator is close to forming a golden cross.
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GateUser-d0dc13e9
Go in big and add to the position with unrealized profits. I’m wondering whether Mars Coin could be listed directly on the spot market and distribute stock dividends through a CEX. Since the ultimate goal is to promote the coin-stock, could we launch an invincible mega-coin here to attract people, so they can earn money from holding the coin while also receiving stock dividends?
0
FranklinLfg
$BTC is slowly pushing out of the small channel and heading toward the next resistance area.

The breakout is there, but the pace is still very slow.

Bulls need stronger volume before this move can be trusted.

Patience is still the best strategy.

#GateLaunchesUnitreePreMarketFutures #USChipStocksRally
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Mining_sLittleSheep
Brent crude fell below $80, but the agreement hasn’t even been signed? The market is pricing in something that “may never happen”

Something bizarre happened last night.

Brent crude plunged 5.26% in a single day, falling below the $80 mark. WTI fell 5.7%, closing at $75.77.

The market voted with real money—believing that the Strait of Hormuz is about to reopen and oil prices are about to collapse.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said an agreement could be reached “on the 4th or 5th.” U.S. Secretary of State Rubio said “progress has been made in the negotiations, but the agreement has not yet been finalized.” Iran’s Foreign Ministry said—“there have been no talks resumed with the United States.”

One says “it will be signed soon,” while the other says “there have been no talks at all.”

The agreement hasn’t even gotten off the ground, yet oil prices have already fallen 5%.

The market is pricing in something that may never happen.

That’s the most dangerous part of trading on expectation gaps—you’re betting on “the agreement being reached,” but what if it isn’t?

First, let’s see what the agreement actually looks like.

According to Axios and Xinhua, the interim agreement under discussion would roughly work as follows:

A 60-day interim arrangement, which could be extended later

Ships entering the Persian Gulf would use the northern Iranian route, while outbound ships would use the southern Omani route

No transit fees would be charged during the 60-day period

The mines in the central part of the strait would be cleared within 30 days

Iran would monitor departing vessels and retain the right to intervene when necessary

Looks fairly plausible, right?

But Iran also said something else—unless the U.S. lifts the blockade on Iranian ports and resumes honoring the previous 14-point memorandum of understanding, “the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed.”

In other words—the prerequisite for signing the agreement is that the U.S. makes concessions. But has the U.S. made any concessions?

Trump said on the 3rd: “The U.S. will not allow Iran to charge fees to ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. If anyone is going to collect fees, it will be us.”

One side wants to collect fees, while the other won’t allow it.

Can this agreement be signed?

Let’s work through two scenarios:

Scenario A: The agreement is actually implemented

Oil prices remain under pressure, easing inflationary pressures

Expectations of Fed rate hikes cool

Risk assets benefit—BTC and U.S. stocks continue to rally

Scenario B: The agreement collapses or is delayed (personally, I don’t think the probability is low)

Oil prices rebound violently to above $90

The inflation narrative reignites

Risk assets suffer—BTC takes the hit first

Current prices have already price in “the agreement being reached,” but have not yet price in “the agreement failing.”

The geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices is rapidly fading. The market is already trading on the assumption that the strait will reopen.

But what if that doesn’t happen?

The expectation gap is the biggest trading opportunity over the next 72 hours.

On one side is the positive impact of easing inflationary pressures (BTC above 64000, the Nasdaq surging 2%); on the other is the risk that the agreement could collapse.

At this level, both bulls and bears have a valid case, but getting the direction right means enormous profits.

Don’t wait until the agreement is actually signed before chasing the move. And don’t wait until it truly falls apart before cutting your losses.

Expectation-gap trading is about who sees first what others have failed to see.#Gate上线宇树科技盘前合约 #美股芯片股全线大涨 #GateCard消费返现最高8% $BTC $BZ $CL
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OldY
The taxed-token system has made a big move this time, with everything upgraded to the so-called Royalty version. The most eye-catching change is that, from now on, all the taxed tokens on the platform will have contracts ending uniformly in ffff, making them instantly identifiable on-chain. Moreover, the platform is being quite generous this time: royalty trading after graduation will be completely exempt from platform fees, 100% of the tax will go to creators, and even the Gas fees for dividend distributions
0
LaughingDaysYsxdct
One view: I probably won’t touch $TSLA (a regular swing-trading target in the past) or $SPCX for quite a long time, and I’ve also temporarily removed $RKLB from my watchlist (it’s purely collateral damage).
A bit of perspective:
TSLA+4.85%
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Mining_sLittleSheep
$11.5 billion in revenue, data center sales doubled, yet AMD plunged 9% after hours—the crypto crowd knows this script all too well

Guys, let’s start with a set of numbers—

Revenue of $11.536 billion, up 50% year over year, hitting a record high.

Earnings per share of $1.66, beating expectations of $1.62.

Data center revenue of $6.7 billion, up 107% year over year and accounting for 58% of total revenue.

Q3 guidance of $13 billion, above Wall Street’s average expectation of $12.5 billion.

For any other company, this would be a legendary earnings report.

AMD fell 9% after hours.

It rose 7% during regular trading, only to erase those gains and then some after hours.

Doesn’t it feel like one of your altcoins posted a better-than-expected bullish update, only to get dumped?

Doesn’t it feel like staring at the candlestick chart at 3 a.m., only to watch it plunge right when the bullish news lands?

Exactly the same script—only the protagonist has changed.

Three charts explain exactly why AMD fell—

First chart: capital expenditures exploded.

Q2 capital expenditures came in at $808 million, while the market expected only $298.6 million.

It spent three times as much on AI infrastructure. The market took one look and thought—wow, all that money has been spent, but where are the profits? Where’s the gross margin?

Second chart: gross margin is going nowhere.

Q3 gross margin guidance is 56%, flat from Q2.

For a fast-growing AI chip company, the market wants sustained gross-margin expansion, not stagnation. AI GPU gross margins are already relatively low; if overall gross margin cannot rise, why should investors give you a higher valuation?

Third chart: the guidance was “not impressive enough.”

The $13 billion Q3 guidance is above Wall Street’s average expectation of $12.5 billion—but some buy-side investors had previously bet on $13.5 billion to $14 billion.

“Beating the average but not the most optimistic expectations”—that is the entire reason for the drop.

One analyst put it this way: “A classic ‘sell the news’ moment—AI chip stocks have already been priced for perfection.”

Crypto traders know this script better than anyone.

A coin goes up tenfold, then posts a quarterly report that is “slightly better than expected”—

The market says only one thing: “That’s it?”

AMD’s share price has already more than doubled this year. Its valuation has soared into the stratosphere, and the market wants more than “good”—it wants “explosive.” Not “better than expected,” but “crushing expectations.”

Anything “less than perfect” is bearish.

That’s why $11.5 billion in revenue and 107% data center growth resulted in a 9% bloodbath.

Remember this lesson—

At peak valuations, “in line with expectations” is the biggest miss of all.

At peak valuations, “slightly better than expected” is equivalent to “not better than expected enough.”

At peak valuations, the script of “selling the news” always arrives before the script of bullish news being realized.

The next one to fall victim to “sell-the-news” could be the coin in your wallet.#Gate上线宇树科技盘前合约 #美股芯片股全线大涨 #GateCard消费返现最高8% $BTC $ETH $AMD
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Dp大鹏
Guys, continuing the update on the next-generation Meme economic model #3️⃣👉 How to make Tokens increasingly scarce while forming a value cycle Many Token reward mechanisms continuously issue more Tokens, which looks prosperous in the early stages. But over time, the increased supply dilutes everyone’s value. So I designed another approach: Let value be released through Burn; Holders can choose to burn Tokens to obtain
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Mining_sLittleSheep
Revenue Doubles, EBITDA Surges 191%—Why Did SpaceX Drop 8% Overnight?

SpaceX’s first quarterly report since going public showed $7.81B in revenue, up 92% year over year and far above the market expectation of $6.93 billion. Adjusted EBITDA was $3.54B, up 191% year over year. Net loss narrowed from $1 billion to $541 million, a 46% reduction.

For any other company, this should have triggered a massive surge.

But SpaceX fell as much as 8.8% after hours, wiping out more than $100 billion in market value.

Before the earnings report, SPCX closed Tuesday up 9.4%. After the report was released, the stock initially rose more than 1%, then plunged.

The better the results, the harder the fall.

Does this script look familiar from the crypto market?

Why did it fall? Three reasons.

First, the pace of spending is suffocating.

Quarterly capital expenditures totaled $18.37 billion—more than twice revenue. AI capital expenditures accounted for $15.83 billion, or 86% of total capital expenditures.

In the same period last year, AI capital expenditures were only $749 million. That is a 21-fold increase in one year.

Musk said on the earnings call that AI capital expenditures are expected to remain at the same level in the third and fourth quarters.

Burning $15.8 billion every quarter. More than $911.5M a year.

This is not burning money—it is firing a flamethrower at a pile of cash.

AI business revenue was $2.6 billion, up 247% year over year. The growth is indeed impressive. But compared with the $15.83 billion investment, it means burning $6 for every $1 earned.

Second, the valuation logic is being put to the test.

Morgan Stanley’s SOTP breakdown delivered a heavy blow to the market: of SpaceX’s $300 target price, the space business is worth only $8, Starlink is worth $128, and the enterprise AI business is worth $152.

Got it?

More than half of this company’s valuation comes from a business that is still losing heavily.

Deutsche Bank was even harsher—it said that based on the current market capitalization, the market’s valuation of the AI business is close to zero.

One investment bank says AI is worth $152, while another says AI is worth $0.

With a divergence this wide, why wouldn’t the stock fall?

The market’s subtext now is: Starlink is worth a little over $100, the rockets are being given away for free, and AI? Either it is worthless or it is a liability.

SpaceX is no longer a rocket company, nor is it a satellite company—

The market is asking: Is it an AI company disguised as a rocket company, or a rocket company using AI as a gimmick?

The former is worth $300; the latter is worth $100.

Third, the lockup-expiry tsunami arrives in 48 hours.

On August 6, 911.5 million shares will be unlocked. At the current share price, they are worth more than $100 billion.

And how many publicly tradable shares does SpaceX currently have? Approximately 640 million.

The public float will double overnight.

This is only the first batch. Before the end of the year, tradable shares will surge from 639 million to 5.33 billion.

This is not a lockup expiry—it is a dam breaking.

Short sellers have already built positions worth $24.6 billion, accounting for approximately 34% of the public float—larger than Tesla’s short interest.

Short sellers have already gained $7.3 billion in unrealized profits since the June listing and are still adding to their positions against the trend.

Twenty-seven institutions unanimously say “buy,” with an average target price of $236. Short sellers say: Keep shouting—we’ll keep dumping.

The sell-side is uniformly optimistic, while short sellers are uniformly adding to their positions. This combination shows that the market’s pricing mechanism for SpaceX has already broken down.

A few painful conclusions:

First, a company falls from $225 to $110, wiping out $1.2 trillion in market value—and then releases an earnings report showing revenue doubled and EBITDA surged 191%—and the stock keeps falling.

This market has gone insane.

Second, when half of a company’s valuation comes from a business that burns $15.8 billion every quarter and has yet to prove it can be profitable—an earnings report is no longer an earnings report; it is a proof-of-funds check.

You are not investing in numbers, but in faith.

Third, when $100 billion worth of shares floods the market in 48 hours, where will the money to absorb them come from?

Institutions have only two ways to absorb this $100 billion supply: sell other technology stocks or reduce their BTC/ETH holdings.

Regardless of whether the earnings report is good or bad, the crypto market is the one being drained.

One final question:

Are you siding with the bulls—believing AI is worth $152 and SpaceX is worth $300?

Or are you siding with the bears—believing AI is a liability and SpaceX is worth only $100?

P.S.: When the lockup expires on August 6, get your popcorn ready. Whether you are bullish or bearish, the market action that day will be unforgettable. #Gate上线宇树科技盘前合约 #美股芯片股全线大涨 #GateCard消费返现最高8% $BTC $ETH $SPCX
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Bit_Bull
@zordcrypt @Uniswap DeFi growth will likely depend on making complex tools easier to use.
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