Would you go long on gold at $4,000?
First, look at the surface: the news is everywhere, but gold prices have stopped moving.
On August 4, spot gold traded in a narrow range of 4050–4090, with only a $40 difference between the high and low. The upper and lower Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart continued to narrow, with volatility compressed to an extreme. The ADX indicator was only 11.99, indicating “waves without momentum”—a typical sign of an impending trend reversal.
Both bulls and bears are waiting for a signal. And that signal may come in 48 hours.
First: Trump has “changed his tune,” but the market no longer believes him.
Over the weekend, Trump suddenly called off plans for a “massive strike” against Iran, saying the two sides would hold talks. At the start of Monday’s session, gold briefly surged as the market interpreted this as a “de-escalation of the conflict.”
Iran directly denied holding any direct talks with the United States. Iran said discussions with Oman had made progress, but the goal was to increase shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump then said the talks were Tehran’s “last chance.”
One side finishes its performance, and the other takes the stage. One moment it is war, the next it is talks, and then there is another denial.
Second: the nonfarm payrolls report is the real “catalyst.”
On August 7 (Friday), the United States will release its July nonfarm payrolls report. The market expects 91k new jobs, up from 57k in June; the unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3%.
These figures will directly determine whether the Federal Reserve raises rates in September.
The market currently prices in about a 65% probability of a 25 bp September rate hike. New York Fed President Williams said that policy was “appropriate” and expects inflation to slow in the second half of the year.
If nonfarm payrolls come in below expectations → rate hike expectations cool → the dollar falls and gold rises
If nonfarm payrolls come in above expectations → rate hike expectations increase → the dollar rises and gold falls
Third: some are selling, while others are buying.
The bears are celebrating:
The U.S. Dollar Index has climbed to a two-month high, Treasury yields remain firm, and the cost of holding gold remains elevated
Technically, the daily chart remains in a downtrend channel, with clear resistance at 4090–4100
The market expects a 65% probability of a September rate hike, and the macro environment is unfavorable for non-yielding assets
The bulls are quietly accumulating:
China’s gold ETFs have recorded net inflows for 14 consecutive days, the longest streak since March
The Bank of Korea has restarted its gold-buying program after 13 years
Global central banks made net gold purchases of 289 tons in the second quarter, an increase of 62 tons year over year and a record high for the same period
The People’s Bank of China has increased its gold holdings continuously for 20 consecutive months
Fourth: the technical picture has reached the point where a direction “must be chosen.”
On the 4-hour chart, XAUUSD is moving sideways, with the upper and lower Bollinger Bands continuing to narrow and volatility declining. The price is hovering around 4050, right at the middle Bollinger Band.
The MACD is slightly below the zero line, with sustained upside not yet confirmed. Stochastic has turned upward, supporting a short-term rebound but not yet entering overbought territory. On August 4, gold formed a Doji candlestick near 4119, showing clear market indecision.
In terms of chart patterns, this is a typical “late-stage symmetrical triangle or rectangle consolidation”—the longer the compression, the more explosive the breakout.
Key levels:
Upside resistance: 4069–4085 → 4110 → 4170–4200
Downside support: 4033 → 4008 → 3983–4000
The battle between bulls and bears—take a look for yourself
On one side:
China’s ETFs have recorded net inflows for 14 consecutive days, while central banks continue to buy aggressively
Global central bank gold purchases totaled 289 tons in the second quarter, a record high for the same period
The $4,000 level has held multiple times, confirming effective support
The Bollinger Bands have narrowed to an extreme, and a trend reversal is imminent
On the other side:
A stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields are weighing on gold prices
The 65% probability of a September rate hike means the macro headwinds have not cleared
4090–4100 has failed to break three times, showing clear selling pressure
Bulls and bears are standing aside ahead of the nonfarm payrolls report, with little momentum for a breakout
Range trading:
Go long: Lightly test longs on a pullback to 4035–4050, set a stop-loss below 4020, and target 4085–4110
Go short: Short on a rebound to 4085–4100 if resistance holds, set a stop-loss above 4115, and target 4035–4008
Breakout strategy:
A high-volume close above 4110 → chase longs, target 4170–4200, stop-loss 4080
A decisive break below 4030 → chase shorts, target 3980–3950, stop-loss 4055
Strict risk-control rules:
Reduce positions or close them out one day before the nonfarm payrolls report—the volatility could expand to 50–100 points
Do not chase trades or hold losing positions stubbornly
Pay attention to funding rates on perpetual contracts
Medium to long term: if expectations for Fed rate hikes cool, consider building long positions on dips, with a target above 4300
Gold has fallen from $5,600 to $4,000, a decline of nearly 30%. You don’t dare buy.
Central banks have been aggressively buying below $4,000 for 20 consecutive months, but you don’t dare follow.
Once the nonfarm payrolls data is released and gold breaks above 4200, you will ask again: “Can I still chase it?”
Gold’s long-term fundamentals have not changed—de-dollarization, diversification of central bank reserves, and the monetization of fiscal deficits. What has changed is your emotions.
At 4090, are you brave enough to get on board?
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