Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

The address tagged as the “13-win streak whale” has increased its 10x isolated long position in TSM to approximately 1.1445 million official quote units. Based on the current position value, the mark price is approximately 412.15, just about 5.26% away from the official liquidation price of 390.47. The strong “13-win streak” label is facing only a limited price buffer. The preceding event consisted of 31 consecutive buys; the current position is 2,776.799 TSM, with an unrealized loss of approximately 360.87.

Gold at $4,260—would you dare chase it?

Look at the surface first: a barrage of positive catalysts, and the price is unbelievably strong.

Yesterday it rose nearly 5% in a single day, jumping directly from 4077 to above 4270, the biggest single-day gain in recent months. Today it surged to 4304 before pulling back, and is currently consolidating around 4260. Gold broke above the upper boundary of the past six weeks’ trading range (the 4180-4225 resistance zone) and moved above the 50-day moving average, signaling a structural shift and confirming a bottom reversal.

First: Developments in the Strait of Hormuz—the oil price crashed, and gold exploded

The most direct catalyst yesterday was the preliminary agreement between Iran and Oman on a shipping corridor. Trump said the negotiations were “progressing smoothly,” and oil prices plunged more than 5% in a single day.

Oil prices fall, inflation expectations decline, rate-cut probabilities rise, and the dollar weakens—gold takes off directly. The logic chain is clear enough to come straight from a textbook.

But the question is: how fragile is this positive catalyst? Any reversal in the Strait of Hormuz or rebound in oil prices could erase half of yesterday’s gains. Smooth negotiations are positive; a breakdown in talks would be an even bigger positive.

Second: ADP was unbelievably weak, while payrolls are the real judge

July ADP employment increased by only 44k, far below expectations of 70k. The signal that the labor market is cooling was clear, and the market immediately interpreted it as “the Fed can cut rates now.”

But Friday’s nonfarm payrolls will be the real judge. ADP and nonfarm payrolls often diverge. If Friday’s payrolls data proves the market wrong—for example, by coming in far above expectations—gold could return to where it came from.

Third: Central-bank gold buying is gold’s strongest backstop

Global central banks made net gold purchases of approximately 289 tons in Q2, up 62% year over year and marking a record-strong quarter. South Korea resumed gold purchases after 13 years, while China continued increasing its holdings.

This is the core support for gold’s long-term narrative: de-dollarization is not a slogan; it is real money buying real gold.

But this rally has been driven more by short covering than by continuing genuine buying.

Bulls versus bears—you decide

On one side:

The technical breakout from the six-week trading range, with the price above the 50-day moving average, signaling a structural shift

Central banks bought 289 tons of gold in Q2, up 62% year over year, a record

The dollar is weakening and U.S. Treasury yields are falling

The plunge in oil prices is easing inflation concerns, while rate-cut expectations are rising

On the other side:

A rapid rise means short-squeeze pressure, not continuing genuine buying

If Friday’s payrolls data beats expectations, the gains could be quickly retraced

Developments in the Strait of Hormuz could reverse at any time

Gold is still down more than 20% from its January record high of 5595, and the broader trend has not reversed

Key levels

Resistance above: 4300-4305 → 4330-4380 → 4500 (200DMA area)

Support below: 4245 → 4200-4210 (former resistance turned support) → 4160 (50DMA area)

For aggressive traders:

If a pullback to 4240-4250 stabilizes, cautiously open a small long position, with a stop-loss below 4220 and a target of 4280-4300.

For conservative traders:

Wait for a pullback to 4200-4210 to confirm support before entering, with a stop-loss at 4180 and a target of 4300-4380.

Short positions?

Stay away for now. The short squeeze has just ended, and the trend is leaning bullish. Only consider shorting a rebound if there is a high-volume break below 4200.

Reduce positions or stay on the sidelines before Friday’s payrolls report—don’t gamble on the data

Pay attention to funding rates on perpetual contracts; holding costs can surge when longs become overheated

Keep your position size below 15% of total capital

What does gold look most like right now?

It looks like Bitcoin on the eve of the 2024 ETF approval—all eyes were waiting for a confirmation signal, while the price had already been quietly breaking out.

But the biggest risk is not missing the move; it is FOMO-chasing at 4260 and then being left at the top of the mountain when a negative payrolls surprise on Friday hits.

Gold’s long-term “de-dollarization” logic is real, but short-term volatility can kill anyone who fails to set a stop-loss.

Friday’s payrolls report will tell us whether this is the start of a new bull market or the last flash of a false breakout. And you only need to do one thing—stay alive long enough to get the answer.#Gate上线宇树科技盘前合约 #韩国KOSPI指数跌幅扩大至3% #现货黄金站上4300 $BTC $XAU $XAUT

What is Tom Lee cooking ?
2 wallets bought $40M worth of $ETH
If this was a memecoin, CT would call it insider buying
Because it’s Ethereum, people call it healthy accumulation still

An address reversed its $BTC position within approximately 50 minutes: after closing a short position worth approximately $653.3k, it switched to holding a long position of 8.96105 BTC, worth approximately $581.2k. Hyperliquid’s official status shows that the long position uses 40x cross margin leverage, with a mark price of approximately $64,857 and an official liquidation price of $64,009.20, a difference of approximately 1.31%. The address’s identity has not yet been confirmed.

From 1926 to the present, more than 26,000 stocks have emerged in the U.S. stock market! 😱
Why are so many people playing stocks now? Are people in the crypto world all trading stocks? Is it because exchanges are convenient? Are they switching careers? Making money in crypto and investing in stocks.
But here comes the harsh reality: 57% of individual stocks—roughly 4 out of every 7—fail to outperform bank deposits over their entire lifetimes!
You heard that right! Most individual stocks can be held and traded for a lifetime and still won’t perform as well as simply keeping your money in the bank or buying Treasury bonds.
So why has the U.S. stock market kept climbing?
The truth is brutal: the market’s entire return is supported by just 4% of stocks!
Just 4%!
Of the more than 26,000 stocks, roughly 1,000 account for all of the U.S. stock market’s net gains.
The remaining 25,000 combined have returns that are basically equivalent to playing for nothing! 🤯
Here’s an even more explosive statistic: just 86 superstar stocks single-handedly created half of the wealth in the U.S. stock market—a whopping $16 trillion!
This isn’t idle speculation. It comes from rigorous research by Professor Bessembinder of Arizona State University, published in the Journal of Financial Economics. It was one of the finance world’s blockbuster papers of the past decade and has been cited extensively.
Now you understand what you’re really betting on when buying individual stocks, right?
You’re essentially trying to pick the 4% of chosen superstar stocks out of a vast sea of 26,000 stocks. You can imagine how difficult that is!
But what if you buy the S&P 500 index?
You don’t need a sharp eye for stock-picking. The index directly bundles all the strongest winners from that 4% for you, so you won’t miss a single one! ✨
The index’s most compelling advantage is right here: you don’t have to dig out the winners yourself—you just take all the winners.
#股票#

$BTC ‌ is testing the $65K resistance after reclaiming the key $64K level.

The breakout confirmed bullish momentum, but price is now approaching a potential shorting area.

For me, longs here don't offer an attractive risk-to-reward. I'd rather wait for a liquidity sweep above $65K–$65.4K before looking for a short setup.

Patience is part of the strategy. Let the market come to you.

#MoonshotAIPreIPOsOpen
#GateLaunches10AShareContracts
#KOSPIExtendsLossesTo3%

This is what we expect from $ETH
All we need now is a closure above this trendline and we will be good
That RSI breakout adds some serious confirmation to the move
I hope it holds up, cause these politicians would soon mess things up
Onwards and upwards
Let’s keep it up tho > $2000

The real buying point will always make you feel unbearable pain;
The real selling point will always make you extremely reluctant to let go.
Every time you feel it’s time to run
it’s often the best time to buy
Every time you feel it can still rise
it’s basically near the top
The market
is specifically designed to go against your intuition

SK hynix has fallen 35% in a month, yet Goldman says it can rise 80%—who's crazy?

The South Korean stock market crashed again this morning.

The KOSPI index fell more than 4%, SK hynix dropped more than 10%, and Samsung Electronics fell more than 6%. A program-trading sell-side suspension mechanism was triggered intraday.

If you hold South Korean chip stocks, you should already be numb by now.

Over the past month, Samsung Electronics has pulled back 23%, while SK hynix has pulled back 35%. The KOSPI index fell more than 22% in July alone. The two stocks account for about 44% of the total market capitalization of South Korea's stock market. When they fall, the entire market goes down with them.

But amid the widespread panic, Goldman Sachs suddenly stepped in and shouted:

“You've oversold.”

Goldman Sachs set a 12-month target of 12,000 points for the KOSPI—about 80% above its current level. It maintained its target prices of 490k won for Samsung Electronics and 3.5M won for SK hynix, reiterating its “Buy” ratings.

Goldman's reasoning is simple: this memory cycle could be stronger and longer-lasting than any previous one.

Put in plain English: you think the cycle has peaked, but this time may be different.

So who is right?

Let's start with the bears' logic—

The trigger for this plunge was “capital expenditure anxiety” sparked by earnings reports from major US AI companies. Google and Tesla were punished for spending too much, and the sentiment spread across the entire AI hardware chain. On top of that, leverage in the South Korean market is too high—the assets of leveraged ETFs fell from a peak of 53 billion to 25 billion, while the liquidation rate among retail investors reached 7%-8%, far above the normal 1%.

Leverage piled on leverage: the more prices fell, the more people sold, and the more they sold, the further prices fell.

But the bears are overlooking one fatal detail—

DRAM is now simply impossible to buy.

The 2027 DRAM and HBM capacity of the three major manufacturers—Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron—is completely sold out. The amount customers ultimately receive is only 60% to 70% of their initial requests.

You read that right—the 2027 supply has already been sold out.

The industry is already calling 2027 “the year of the tightest memory shortage.” Goldman Sachs is even more aggressive, believing that the DRAM shortage could continue until 2030.

An even more painful signal comes from Apple.

Apple tried to pressure ChangXin Memory Technologies on LPDDR5X pricing, but was flatly rejected. ChangXin Memory Technologies' quote was even higher than those of Samsung and SK hynix.

Even Apple can no longer push prices down.

For decades, Apple used the tactic of “cut your price or we'll shift the order” to crush countless suppliers. Now that tactic has stopped working. Huawei and Xiaomi have already locked up ChangXin's capacity through long-term contracts, so it does not lack orders at all.

What does Apple's rejection mean?

It means the bargaining power over DRAM has completely shifted from buyers to sellers.

Are South Korean chip stocks a wrongly sold-off opportunity, or a rebound before the cycle peaks?

My judgment is—

70% of this plunge was a leverage-driven liquidation, and 30% was concern about fundamentals.

The leverage-driven portion has mostly run its course. Goldman Sachs data shows that the size of South Korea's leveraged ETFs has already shrunk by 54%. The margin financing balance fell 10% in a single day. Most of the positions that had to be liquidated have already been liquidated.

But the fundamental factors—DRAM supply falling short of demand, rising HBM prices, and sold-out capacity—have not changed at all.

Goldman Sachs expects the average HBM prices of Samsung and SK hynix to rise 87% and 100%, respectively, in 2027. HBM's share of the two companies' DRAM revenue will increase from the current 8%-14% to 16%-22% in 2027.

This is not the end of the cycle. It may be the middle of the cycle.

Let me end with something practical—

When the market panics, 90% of people sell along with it. The other 10% ask one question: “Why are they selling?”

That 10% earns the money made by the other 90%.

The current pricing of South Korean chip stocks has already priced in the “worst-case scenario.” But what is actually happening in the real world is that memory is becoming more expensive, capacity is becoming tighter, and buyers are becoming increasingly passive.

SK hynix has fallen 35% from its high.

Do you think this is an opportunity or a trap?

Goldman Sachs says it can rise 80%. But Goldman Sachs is often wrong too.

The only thing that will not deceive you is the DRAM price quote. #Gate上线宇树科技盘前合约 #韩国KOSPI指数跌幅扩大至3% #GateCard消费返现最高8% $BTC $SKHY $AAPL

Let's fucking go!

Markets are now pricing an 85% chance of zero Fed rate cuts in 2026.
That does not automatically mean something bad is coming.
It means inflation, growth, or policy uncertainty may be keeping the Fed tighter for longer than traders expected.
Higher-for-longer rates usually pressure liquidity and risk assets, so the next inflation and labour data matter more than the headline itself.
GM.

Revenue miss, USDC shrinks, but BlackRock and Visa are all in—so which side of Circle’s earnings report should you believe?

Circle’s Q2 earnings report is out.

It rose more than 8% premarket at one point—then turned around and fell 3.72%.

It closed down roughly 2%.

A company whose net income improved by $530 million year over year, on-chain transaction volume surged 151%, and BlackRock and Visa are scrambling to serve as its validators—why did the stock fall?

The answer is simple: short-term data is clashing, while the long-term narrative is exploding. The market does not know which side to believe.

Let’s start with the “bearish” factors—

👉 Revenue came in at $701 million, below Wall Street’s $717 million expectation. That marks the second consecutive quarterly miss.

👉 USDC’s circulating supply at quarter-end was $73.3 billion, up 19% year over year, which looks decent. But compared with $77 billion at the end of Q1, it shrank 4.8% sequentially.

👉 The stock surged 8% premarket, then turned down nearly 4% after the open.

👉 Mizuho Securities directly called it out: “Behind the impressive data, the sequential decline in USDC and margin pressure are the core concerns.”

These are exactly the things Wall Street is selling on.

Now let’s look at the “bullish” factors—

👉 Net income was $48 million, compared with a loss of $482 million in the same period last year—an improvement of $530 million year over year.

👉 On-chain transaction volume reached $14.8 trillion, up 151% year over year. The number of active wallets reached 7 million, up 24%.

👉 Circle received OCC approval to establish a federal trust bank, becoming one of the first stablecoin issuers to hold a federal banking charter.

👉 CPN’s annualized transaction volume reached $14.7 billion, surging 76% sequentially, with 175 financial institutions connected.

👉 Full-year other revenue guidance was raised directly from $150–170 million to $310–330 million, doubling.

But the biggest bombshell is Arc—

The mainnet goes live on September 16.

The founding validator list is out. Count them:

BlackRock, DTCC, Galaxy, Global Payments, ICE, Mastercard, MoneyGram, SBI Group, Standard Chartered Bank, Sumitomo Corporation, Visa.

Eleven. All top-tier global financial institutions.

BlackRock plans to deploy its BUIDL fund directly on Arc. DTCC plans to tokenize assets under custody on Arc.

Wall Street is selling the earnings report, while smart money is buying the future.

The short-term data really does not look good. Revenue miss, USDC shrinking at quarter-end, margin pressure—these are all facts.

But what is Arc? It is a Layer 1 combining stablecoin settlement, tokenized assets, and institutional financial infrastructure. It uses USDC as its native gas token. More than 100 ecosystem and institutional builders are already operating on the private mainnet.

The revenue miss is short-term noise. Arc is the decisive factor in reshaping Circle’s valuation.

The market is pricing Circle using a “stablecoin issuer” valuation.

But after Arc goes live, Circle’s narrative will become “institutional financial blockchain infrastructure.”

How different are the valuations of the two?

You do the math.

Are you part of the short-term “data camp” or the long-term “narrative camp”? #Gate上线宇树科技盘前合约 #韩国KOSPI指数跌幅扩大至3% #GateCard消费返现最高8% $BTC $COIN $CRCL

The testnet guide is here for Psy Protocol, a privacy-focused L1 public blockchain that has raised $9 million! Psy Protocol is an L1 public blockchain focused on privacy. What’s most impressive is that it uses a PoW approach (it previously reached 52,1000 TPS directly on its live test network), essentially combining Bitcoin’s neutral and secure PoW mechanism with the high speed and scalability of a new public blockchain, claiming to achieve internet-scale throughput.

I remember that when I participated in SPACE, I mentioned a strategy for trading gold: follow the country.

Iran Gained Greater Control Over the Strait Than Before the War—So Why Did Oil Prices Crash? The Market Is Trading a “Strange” Peace

Let’s start with this news.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi announced on August 5 that the agreement between Iran and Oman on the passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz was close to being finalized.

Under the framework of the agreement—all vessels entering the Persian Gulf must pass through the northern channel in Iranian waters.

Iran has gained greater control over passage through the strait than before the war. The US side also acknowledged that Iran did not possess this level of control before the conflict.

Normally, this should signal that “Iran is taking a harder line.”

But what about oil prices? They crashed.

US crude oil futures briefly fell to $74.24 per barrel, hitting a three-week low. Domestic crude oil futures fell more than 6%, while Europe-route container freight fell nearly 9%.

Iran gained greater control, yet oil prices fell even harder.

What exactly is the market trading?

The market is fundamentally not trading “who is in control,” but “whether passage is possible.”

The core arrangements of the agreement are as follows:

👉 Vessels entering the Gulf: use the northern channel in Iranian waters 👉 Departing vessels: use the southern channel in Omani waters, coordinated and supported by Iran 👉 A 60-day interim arrangement with no transit fees 👉 Mines along the centerline of the strait will be cleared within 30 days, after which the channel will be used for two-way traffic

The Strait of Hormuz carries approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Since the US and Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran on February 28, 2026, this waterway has remained under blockade.

Now, the blockade is about to be lifted.

The market does not care who “won”; it cares whether ships can pass.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated a blunt truth—the Iran-Oman agreement does not mean that safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz will be restored. The strait was closed because of US-Israeli military operations, and the US naval blockade remains in place.

But the market does not care about that. It only looks at marginal changes.

From “full blockade” to “limited passage”—this marginal change is enough for oil prices to give back all their war premium.

What extreme scenario had the market priced in previously? A prolonged closure of the strait, sending oil prices soaring to $100–120 or even higher.

Now the agreement framework is in place: navigation within 60 days and mine clearance within 30 days. The worst-case scenario has been disproven.

Asset prices are being violently repriced.

This tells us that the market is always trading “marginal changes,” not “who is right or wrong.”

Iran gained greater control—that is a fact. Oil prices plunged—that is also a fact.

Both facts can be true at the same time. There is no contradiction.

Because the market recognizes only one thing: whether ships can pass.

Peace is not necessarily fair. But the market recognizes only two words: “safe passage.”

The same applies to the crypto market.

What are you trading? The narrative you “believe in,” or marginal changes?

You are crying as CLARITY’s probability falls from 82% to 30%. But on-chain whales had already reduced their positions when it was at 82%—they were trading “marginal changes,” while you were trading “belief.”

ChangXin goes public with a 3 trillion market cap, and you chase it. But smart money had already finished positioning before the listing—they were trading “expectations,” while you were trading “news.”

This market has never cared what you believe.

It cares only about which direction the next marginal change will take.

Iran gained greater control, and oil prices fell.

You delivered better results, and your stock price fell.

The world is not crazy.

Your trading framework needs to change. #Gate上线宇树科技盘前合约 #韩国KOSPI指数跌幅扩大至3% #GateCard消费返现最高8% $BTC $BZ $CL

Does anyone eat basketball in the morning? 🏀
The way some people insist on mixing half Chinese and half English into everything they say is really strange
Do they have to let everyone know that neither their Chinese nor their English is good enough to speak in complete sentences? 😂
A ten-character sentence, with three words in English
“I literally feel like this vibe isn’t quite right; we can discuss it a little more”
Are you taking the TOEFL listening test?
Truly capable people speak complete sentences in Chinese when speaking Chinese, and complete sentences in English when speaking English
Only the half-competent are the busiest, forcing a few English words into every sentence because they’re afraid people won’t know they just got back from the airport
Even more amazingly, their English pronunciation isn’t necessarily standard, and their Chinese grammar starts falling apart too
They’ve successfully turned both languages into a third language!
Please, being able to speak English is a skill
But that doesn’t mean you have to insert a few English words into every sentence as filler
Thanks, I guess. 🙇‍♀️

A friend happened to send me a project, so I did a quick review and found its direction quite unique. $Cosmic Heart is pursuing an interstellar digital civilization route, integrating Elon Musk’s SpaceX vision for future exploration into the Web3 ecosystem. Multiple teams and communities are currently participating in its development, rather than it being driven unilaterally, with the goal of creating a model of shared growth. For those interested in long-term narrative projects, it may be worth following the ecosystem’s subsequent developments.

Revenue Surged 372%, $14 Billion in Buybacks—SanDisk Gave Everything It Could, Yet Its Stock Still Crashed 8%

Did you know anyone like this last night?

Looking at SanDisk’s earnings report—revenue of $8.97 billion, up 372% year over year. Adjusted EPS was $39.25, versus $0.29 a year earlier, a 135-fold increase. Gross margin was 84.6%, up from 26.2% a year earlier, more than tripling.

The board made a big move: adding $14 billion in buybacks, bringing the remaining total buyback authorization to $15.5 billion.

“This earnings report is absolutely explosive. Buy it!”

Woke up the next morning, and SanDisk was down 8% after hours.

Totally stunned again.

“No, with earnings this good, why?”

Why? Because you’re still looking at this market through an old lens.

After the U.S. market closed on August 5, SanDisk and Western Digital released their earnings reports at the same time.

SanDisk’s data center business—revenue of $2.98 billion, up 1,298% year over year. You read that right: 1,298%, not 12.98%.

Edge computing: $5.43 billion, up 392%. Full-year revenue: $20.25 billion, up 175%.

Eight NBM long-term agreements guarantee $93.9 billion in revenue, with $16.5 billion in customer default protection. More than half of fiscal 2027 capacity has been locked in early, and two-thirds of fiscal 2028 capacity has already been allocated.

The CEO said on the earnings call: “The growth in AI storage demand has already exceeded our supply capacity, and our largest customer has continued placing additional orders even after signing the contract.”

All capacity has been sold out, and customers are still lining up to place additional orders.

In any normal market, wouldn’t this stock be flying?

But that’s not how the market sees it.

SanDisk expects next-quarter revenue of $10.3 billion to $10.8 billion, with a midpoint of $10.55 billion—nearly 5.5% below analysts’ expectation of $11.16 billion.

EPS guidance was $44 to $46, versus market expectations of $45.58—right at the lower end of expectations.

Gross margin guidance was 83% to 85%, compared with 84.6% this quarter—basically flat, showing signs of a peak.

The market recognizes only one logic: You did great in the past, but can you do even better in the future?

And SanDisk’s answer is: Yes, but not as well as you think.

After its stock rose 468%, an earnings report that merely beats expectations is no longer enough.

So far this year, SanDisk’s stock has risen nearly fivefold, while the S&P 500 has risen only 13%.

A 468% gain has already priced in the story of an “explosion in AI storage demand.”

Now the market doesn’t care how much money you made—the market wants to know how much more money you can make.

Miss guidance by just a little, and the stock will crash right in front of you.

Western Digital also reported earnings on the same day—revenue of $3.75 billion beat expectations, EPS of $3.56 beat expectations, and guidance also beat expectations.

What happened? It fell 11% after hours.

Both companies crashed together.

What does this show?

It shows that this isn’t just SanDisk’s problem—the entire storage sector is being repriced by the market.

Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and a host of other institutions gave it a “strong buy” rating, with an average price target of $2,400. But the stock has already fallen 40% from its June peak.

Expectations were set far too high—so high that even an earnings report beating expectations couldn’t fill the gap.

The market isn’t trading on what you’ve done.

It’s trading on what else you can do.

SanDisk gave everything it could: explosive earnings, $14 billion in buybacks, eight long-term agreements locking in the next four years, and $93.9 billion in guaranteed revenue.

But the market focused on just one sentence: next-quarter guidance was slightly below expectations.

And 8% disappeared.

This isn’t SanDisk’s fault. It’s the cut that every stock lifted into the sky by the AI narrative will eventually have to face.

Do you still hold any storage stocks?

Do you think the market is being too harsh, or is the valuation genuinely too expensive?#Gate上线宇树科技盘前合约 #加密市场回升 #GateCard消费返现最高8% $SNDK $SKHY $BTC

All three tokens we had positioned in have taken off: POOLS 25x✅, UNIFROG 6x✅, and FRONG large-cap 2x✅. The gated private group still has 9 spots available. Let’s build consensus around good picks and ride them together to the top.

1, My influence is pretty significant. Yesterday, after I called out $CRCL , it fell, but not by that much. Today, I called out “gold, gold,” and it didn’t fall. My calls only work for market caps of 100–200; anything larger is beyond me;