BTC at $64,300—what are you still waiting for?
Look at the surface first: bullish factors are piling up, but the price isn't rising.
Over the past month, BTC climbed from a $60k bottom to $63.8k support, forming a typical consolidation pattern of “capped highs and rising lows.” 24-hour volatility is limited, trading volume is moderate, and sentiment is neutral to cautious. Daily RSI at 50-53 is neutral, MACD is narrowing its negative reading but has not formed a golden cross, and ADX is extremely weak—the market is about to choose a direction, so don't pick the wrong side.
First: ETFs have seen net inflows for three consecutive days, but you may have missed the point
August 3: +$170 million; August 4: +$210 million; August 5: +$244 million—more than $600 million cumulatively over three consecutive days, led by IBIT, reversing the net outflow trend of the previous several weeks. But BTC didn't rise and is still hovering around $64,200.
Why? Because institutions are buying spot while hedge funds are selling futures, and arbitrage traders are pinning the price down. This is called a “basis trade”—it's not bearish; it's about earning risk-free returns.
Second: On-chain data is quietly telling you a secret
Approximately 155k BTC recently traded in the $62k-$65k range, accounting for 0.7% of the circulating supply
This is the densest cost-concentration zone in several months
The $62,000-$65,000 range is forming an “iron floor.” Every time the price falls to this level, someone steps in to buy.
Third: The macro environment is the biggest “elephant in the room”
Under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, the FOMC voted 9-3 on July 29 to keep rates at 3.50%-3.75%, with three members advocating a rate hike. There is almost no expectation of rate cuts in 2026, while the possibility of a hike remains.
The real yield on 10-year TIPS is around 2.4%, close to the key threshold for suppressing risk assets.
Two events this week will determine the outcome:
August 7 (tomorrow): Nonfarm payrolls (NFP)
August 12: CPI data
Softer data → rebound begins → target $68,000-$70,000
Hotter data → retest of $62,000 or even $60k
Fourth: The candlesticks have reached a moment when a choice must be made
On the 4-hour chart, the price has already moved above the Bollinger middle band, with momentum slowly building. The daily chart has formed a consolidation structure of “capped highs and rising lows”—from the $60,000 bottom, the price has gradually climbed to $63.8k support.
Once volume-backed buying breaks through $65,500-$66,000, shorts will be forced to liquidate in a cascade, with the target directly at $68,000-$70,000.
Immediate support: $63,800-$64,000 (tested multiple times intraday and holding)
Strong support: $62,000-$63,000 (cost-concentration zone + recent lows)
Immediate resistance: $65,000-$65,200 (upper Bollinger band + liquidation cluster)
Strong resistance: $66,000-$67,000 (July highs + range ceiling)
The bulls and bears are facing off—see for yourself
On one side:
ETFs have seen more than $600 million in net inflows over three consecutive days; institutions are buying
155k BTC have formed a cost-concentration zone at $62K-$65K
Long-term holder supply is rising, with holdings consolidating
“Rising lows” since July, with a clear accumulation structure
Geopolitical concerns are easing, and risk sentiment is improving
On the other side:
The Fed is hawkish, with almost no expectation of rate cuts in 2026
Real yields are at 2.4%, suppressing all risk assets
Uncertainty around the NFP and CPI data could trigger another round of selling
Trading volume has not expanded, leaving the breakout without momentum
The drawdown from the ATH is 49%, and the technical bear-market structure remains
Short-term traders:
Buy lightly on a pullback to $63,800-$64,200, with a stop-loss below $63,500 and a target of $64,800-$65,200. Add to the position after a volume-backed move above $65,200, targeting $66,000-$66,500.
If a rebound to $65,000-$65,200 is rejected on declining volume, try a light short, with a stop-loss above $65,500 and targets of $64,200-$63,800.
Medium-term traders:
A daily close above $66,000 → shift to a bullish trend position, targeting $68,000-$70,000.
A daily close below $62,000 → switch to defense, targeting $60,000 or even $58,000.
Long-term believers:
Make staggered spot purchases in the $62,000-$63,000 range. Q4 target: $70,000-$75,000, provided CPI confirms that inflation is cooling.
Risk-management iron rules
Reduce positions or hedge before the NFP and CPI releases; never gamble on the data
Always set a stop-loss; never stubbornly hold a losing position
For perpetuals, watch the funding rate; it is currently neutral but could change abruptly
Staying alive matters more than making money—if you're on the wrong side, cut the position and start over; don't stubbornly hold on
BTC now looks just like its September 2023 self—
99% of people thought “the bull market was over,” but two months later it surged directly from $25k to $40k.
On the day $66,000 breaks through, you'll realize:
It wasn't that BTC was incapable—it was that you never managed to stay awake until dawn.
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