Are you still holding ETH at $1,870?
Look at the surface first: positive catalysts keep coming, yet the price is as dull as a blunt knife.
It fell 0.5% over the past 24 hours, retreating nearly $100 from the July high of 1,980. The ETF has seen net inflows for multiple consecutive weeks, with another $53.75 million flowing in yesterday alone. The deflationary narrative at the protocol level is gaining momentum, and even whales are quietly accumulating—but the price simply will not move. The Bollinger Bands have narrowed to an extreme, trading volume has shrunk, and the RSI is neutral to weak. A major move is imminent.
First question: ETFs are buying, whales are buying—who is selling?
On August 4, U.S. spot ETH ETFs saw net inflows of $53.75 million. BlackRock’s ETHA alone bought $42.46 million. This trend has continued for several weeks.
At the same time, on-chain data shows that whales are increasing their holdings net, while retail investors are distributing.
Think “everyone has run away”? The truth is—those running are the small retail holders who cannot hold on, while the ones entering are all mega-whales.
Second question: Developers want to shut down ETH’s “money printer”
Several core developers, including a team associated with Justin Drake, have proposed EIP-8361/8363. The proposal is simple:
Once the amount staked reaches a threshold of approximately 60 million ETH, validator rewards would be sharply reduced or even burned, bringing ETH’s net issuance close to zero.
If this proposal passes, staking rewards will be cut substantially, and the supply of new coins will approach zero.
Combined with EIP-1559 burning, ETH will shift from “low inflation” to “net deflation.”
Third question: How long has 1,850 held? Do you still remember?
Since late July, ETH has been moving back and forth between 1,850 and 1,950. The daily chart is entangled around the 20-day and 50-day EMAs, while the Bollinger Bands have narrowed to an extreme—this is a classic sign of a major move ahead.
The 1,850-1,860 range has already been tested four times. Buying pressure has supported the price every time it was touched, but each rebound to 1,900 has been sold back down. The bulls and bears have reached a “terrifying equilibrium” here—neither side dares to move first, but both know the balance will soon be broken.
The battle between bulls and bears—judge for yourself
On one side:
ETFs have seen net inflows for multiple consecutive weeks, with BlackRock buying $42.46 million in a single day yesterday
The EIP-8361/8363 proposal will push ETH’s net issuance toward zero, strengthening the deflationary narrative
More than 41 million ETH staked, with 33% of the supply locked up and liquidity continuing to tighten
Whales are increasing their holdings net while retail investors are cutting losses—a classic bottom signal
The 1,850-1,860 range has held through four tests, confirming the support
On the other side:
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate is 3.5%-3.75%, and hawkish remarks are weighing on risk assets
The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to weaken, with capital favoring Bitcoin
A lack of strong catalysts has made the price numb to good news
If macro data comes in hawkish, such as stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls or CPI, another sell-off may follow
Key levels
Upside resistance: 1,880-1,888 → 1,900-1,905 → 1,930-1,950 → 2,000
Downside support: 1,860-1,864 → 1,839-1,850 → 1,820-1,825 → 1,780
Range-trading strategy:
Go lightly long on a pullback to 1,850-1,860, with a stop-loss at 1,835 and targets of 1,885-1,900. Go lightly short on a rebound to 1,885-1,900, with a stop-loss at 1,915 and targets of 1,860-1,850.
Breakout strategy:
If the daily candle closes decisively above 1,900 and holds, go long, targeting 1,930-1,950/2,000, with a stop-loss below 1,870. If it breaks below 1,839-1,850 on heavy volume, switch short or chase the short, targeting 1,820/1,780, with a stop-loss above 1,860.
For long-term believers:
The 1,839-1,850 range is giving you a fourth chance to get on board in the past three months. If you believe in the deflationary narrative of EIP-8361, and if you believe ETF inflows will continue—invest with your eyes closed and build your position in batches.
Ironclad risk-control rules:
Risk no more than 1-2% of your total position on any single trade, and pay attention to funding rates when using perpetuals. Reduce your position and stay on the sidelines before and after nonfarm payrolls/CPI to avoid large overnight swings.
ETH at $1,870 looks remarkably like BTC at $25,000 in 2023—
99% of people thought “this garbage will never recover,” but after the ETF was approved, it shot straight from $40k to $70k.
In this market, I have seen too many moments when “the fundamentals are strongest while the price is weakest”—and every time, they have been the biggest opportunities.
Ethereum has not changed; what has changed is your patience.
#Gate上线宇树科技盘前合约 #美股芯片股全线大涨 #GateCard消费返现最高8% $BTC $GT $ETH