Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

After trading storage, switching to BTC is essentially no different from the strategy I used in bull markets of switching from altcoins to BTC after finishing a trade. The core logic is about volatility: altcoins might give you a 30% gain in a day, and storage can do the same; but what you need to consider is whether, after gaining 30% in one day, it will continue to rise another 30% on the second and third days, or enter a highly volatile sideways market. Take SanDisk $SNDK

Keeping a close eye on these memecoins:
​• $PENGU
• $SPX
• $NPC
• $BONK
• $FARTCOIN
​What memecoins are you accumulating right now? Drop your top picks below 👇

Would you dare catch the falling knife at $125 SPCX?

Its August 4 earnings showed revenue of $7.81 billion, up 92% year-over-year, EBITDA up 191%, and $14.1 billion in AI contracts secured. But it rose only 5% after hours before being sold back down, and is currently fluctuating around 125. The IPO price was 135, the ATH was 225, and it is now 8-15% below the IPO price. It has been range-bound between 105-126, with tangled moving averages; volume is expanding but the price is not rising. The battle between bulls and bears is imminent, and a direction is about to be chosen.

First: The earnings were explosive, but what is the market afraid of?

Revenue doubled, Starlink users reached 12 million, Starship V3's test flight succeeded, government Starshield contracts exceeded $6 billion, and the acquisition of Cursor is taking it into the AI enterprise market—sounds like nothing but good news, right?

But the market is focused on just one number: $18.37 billion in AI capital expenditures.

Burning money for growth—the Tesla script is playing out again. The same story: in 2022, Tesla was criticized as an “overvalued bubble,” then rose from 100 to 400.

Every time a great company burns money to expand, retail investors complain while the big players buy.

Second: 900 million shares are being unlocked after the lock-up period, but you may be getting misled.

The first IPO lock-up expiration in August will release approximately 6.9% of the float. Early insider selling will follow, with two more batches coming in December 2026 and June 2027.

6.9% of the float is not going to be dumped all at once

Early employees have extremely low costs, so selling a little to improve their lives is perfectly normal

Bezos sold Amazon stock for 20 years—did that stop Amazon from rising 100-fold?

Insider selling ≠ the company is failing, just like you have to pay rent after getting your salary.

Third: SpaceX's moat is deeper than you can see.

It has a $47.5 billion backlog, with more work than it can handle for the next three years

The only company in the world with reusable rockets + global satellite internet + orbital AI computing power

Collaborating with Nvidia on orbital AI, coordinating with xAI, and creating a closed-loop Musk ecosystem

Without SpaceX, the U.S. space strategy would be crippled

Without Starlink, communications on the Ukrainian battlefield would collapse

Without Starship, NASA's lunar landing program would be stalled

You can judge the bull-bear battle for yourself

One side is:

92% revenue growth, $47.5 billion backlog

Starlink is already profitable, with $14.1 billion in AI contracts

Collaboration with Nvidia, government contracts exceeding $6 billion

The world's only full-chain space industry company

The other side is:

$18.3 billion in AI capital expenditures, burning money for growth

Lock-up selling pressure continuing through 2027

Still currently posting a net loss, with negative free cash flow

A $1.5 trillion market cap, so the valuation is not cheap

Key levels

Resistance above: 128-130 → 135 (psychological IPO price level) → 150+

Support below: 120-122 → 115-117 → 110-105

Trading strategy

Short-term traders:

If the price holds 122-125 and breaks above 128 on rising volume, go long with a small position, targeting 132-135, with a stop-loss at 120. If it breaks below 122, try a small short position, targeting 117-115, with a stop-loss at 128.

Swing traders:

Accumulate in batches on pullbacks to 115-117 or around 110, targeting 130-135 and then 150, with a stop-loss below 105. If the daily close holds above 135, add to the position and target higher.

Long-term believers:

Blindly dollar-cost average in the 110-120 range. SpaceX is not an ordinary stock; it is the world's only operator of space infrastructure. The 2027 target is 200-300, betting on Starlink's global coverage + an explosion in AI computing revenue. But remember—105 is the bottom line; if it breaks, wait for 90 before adding.

SpaceX is now like Tesla in 2018—

99% of people thought “Musk is talking bullshit,” but Tesla rose from 20 to 400. #非农爆雷降息预期逆转 #股票交易分享挑战 #美国ADP就业仅增4.4万 $BTC $SPCX $SPCX

ByteDance's big model is about to arrive!
Insiders revealed: ByteDance is launching training for a 10-trillion-parameter AI model, 3 times the size of Kimi K3, directly targeting Anthropic's most advanced Mythos!
ByteDance has plenty of money and isn't going public, so we can only look at its upstream supply chain:
1. Nvidia $NVDA
The primary source of computing power for ByteDance's training; its overseas clusters heavily use GPUs such as H200 and Blackwell, which are indispensable for pretraining ultra-large models.
2. Broadcom $AVGO
An important partner in ByteDance's development of the SeedChip AI chip and custom accelerators; it also provides high-speed networking chips, with cluster interconnects relying entirely on it.
3. TSMC $TSM
The core foundry for advanced processes; ByteDance-related chips from Nvidia, Broadcom, and others are all manufactured by it, and capacity is tight.
4. Micron Technology $MU
One of the core suppliers of HBM high-bandwidth memory; although direct supply to China is restricted, it indirectly supplies through overseas GPU packaging, benefiting from rising prices driven by strong demand for training memory.
5. Super Micro Computer $SMCI
An expert in assembling complete AI server systems; ByteDance and overseas data centers purchase heavily from it, and its fast shipments and flexibility mean that the expansion of pretraining clusters directly drives orders.
6. Vertiv $VRT
A leader in data center liquid cooling and power systems; ByteDance's massive training clusters generate enormous heat, making liquid-cooling solutions essential, with orders surging in tandem with GPU deployment.
7. Arista Networks $ANET
The king of AI data center switches; the tens of thousands of GPUs used in ByteDance's training rely entirely on its equipment for high-speed interconnection, and its market share remains among the highest.
8. Marvell Technology $MRVL
An expert in high-speed connectivity chips and custom ASICs, as the bandwidth requirements of self-developed training chips explode.
9. Foxconn Industrial Internet $601138
A giant in AI server contract manufacturing, deeply involved in assembling Nvidia and cloud-provider servers and a core contract-manufacturing partner for ByteDance's computing-power expansion.
10. Innolight $300308
A leader in high-speed optical modules and the high-speed highway for internal AI cluster communications; ByteDance and overseas data centers are major customers for 800G/1.6T optical modules, with shipments surging.
11. Inspur Digital Information $000977
A leading domestic AI server manufacturer and an important supplier for domestic intelligent-computing centers and ByteDance-related projects, directly benefiting from the boom in large-model training through server shipments.
12. Applied Materials $AMAT
A leading upstream supplier of chip manufacturing equipment; TSMC and Samsung must purchase its equipment when expanding production of training chips, creating a dual drive from equipment and materials.
Still perpetually short of chips and memory!

Give me ONE meme you actually have conviction in
Not looking to collect 47 random bags either
Either I’m being disciplined
or I’m about to watch everything pump without me
Trying to keep some dry powder, but these charts are making that decision harder by the minute
What’s actually worth adding here ?

If the system gave you 30 million now but you could only buy one stock, which one would you buy?

Honestly, the premium pattern for recent AI pre-IPO targets has been incredibly consistent. Previously, SPCX surged as much as 252% on its first day, OPENAI rose 38%, and even MINIMAX and Zhipu consistently posted first-day premiums of 20%+, so this arbitrage logic will most likely continue. This time, it’s Moonshot, the company behind Kimi.

As the bear-market cycle has progressed, old coins have instead become quieter. VDD Multiple does not measure ordinary trading volume, but how long the coins that moved on-chain had previously been dormant. The same 1 coin means something completely different when sold after being held for 5 days versus being transferred again after 5 years; the longer it has been held, the more coin age is destroyed, and the greater its reference value for the market.

$1,910 ETH—Have you cut your losses?

Look at the surface first: despair is spreading, and faith is collapsing.

It has fallen 48% in a year, from its ATH of 4946 to a low of 1500, and has now barely rebounded to 1910. After finally climbing from 1600 to 1900 in July, it was slammed back down from 1920-1930. It is consolidating near 1900 and forming a bottom, with RSI neutral and moving averages tangled. A major move is imminent, so stop selling at the bottom.

First: ETF net inflows have continued, but you may be blinded by the price.

On August 6, ETF net inflows reached $92.1 million, with BlackRock alone buying $81.1 million. Cumulative inflows over the past week exceeded $200 million.

Institutions are aggressively buying below 1900, while retail investors are cutting losses and exiting around 1900.

At the same price, when it first fell to 1900, retail investors said, “It will fall further.” When it rebounded to 1900 for the second time, retail investors said, “Sell the rebound and get out.” When it reached 1900 for the third time, institutions quietly bought the sell orders you placed.

Second: ETH’s fundamentals are too strong to ignore.

The Glamsterdam upgrade is progressing, with parallel processing and expanded data capacity, targeting a launch by the end of 2026. Robinhood Chain, an Arbitrum L2, has launched, and traditional financial institutions are beginning to integrate it. RWA and stablecoin dominance remain unshakable.

Vitalik is adjusting the foundation’s direction to focus on AI safety and a quantum-resistant roadmap, laying the groundwork for the next decade.

Third: The technical chart has produced a signal that must be taken seriously.

On the daily chart, ETH has rebounded after forming a bottom at 1500, rising nearly 25% in July and currently consolidating in a range around 1900. On the 4H chart, the moving averages are tangled, RSI is neutral, and volume is moderate—a classic setup for an imminent move.

But 1920-1930 has held three times, while 1980-2000 is a dense psychological and liquidation zone. Will the fourth attempt break straight through, or will it be slammed back to 1800 again?

You decide who wins the battle between bulls and bears

On one side:

ETF net inflows continue, with institutions accumulating over $200 million this week

Whales and listed companies continue increasing their holdings, with clear accumulation by on-chain addresses

The Glamsterdam upgrade + Robinhood Chain + stablecoin ecosystem expansion

Nearly 30% rebound from 1500, with the trend recovering

On the other side:

Down 48% for the year, with retail faith collapsing

Rejected three times at 1920-1930, with heavy supply overhead

Today’s NFP data hangs over the market, creating macro uncertainty

Rebounding oil prices in the Middle East have reignited inflation concerns

Key levels

Resistance above: 1920-1930 → 1980-2000 (psychological level) → 2200+

Support below: 1890-1900 → 1850-1870 → 1800-1830 (iron floor)

Trading strategy

Short-term traders:

On a high-volume breakout above 1920-1930, go long with a small position, targeting 1980-2000, with a stop-loss at 1880. If 1890 breaks, try a small short position, targeting 1850-1830, with a stop-loss at 1920.

Swing traders:

Accumulate in batches on pullbacks to 1850-1870 or around 1800, targeting 1930-2000, with a stop-loss at 1780. If the daily close holds above 2000, add to the position and target 2200+.

Long-term believers:

Dollar-cost average below 1900. Did the fundamentals collapse after falling from 4946 to 1500? No—they have actually grown stronger. The ETH/BTC exchange rate has fallen to a historical low, and once macro conditions turn, its upside elasticity could be astonishing. Remember—1780 is the line in the sand; if it breaks, stay on the sidelines and wait for the structure to form.

ETH now looks like Bitcoin in 2020—

99% of people thought, “ETH is too big to keep rising,” but after the ETF was approved, it rose from 1500 to 4900. #非农之夜定涨跌方向 #股票交易分享挑战 #Gate首发上线10只A股合约 $BTC $ETH $SOL

To be frank, if you want to start a side hustle with AI, the dumbest thing is to bury yourself in learning technology right away.
Many people spend two months learning prompts, another month learning Midjourney, and then half a year studying Python.
After all that learning, they still cannot find a single paying client.
They got the order of doing things backward from the very beginning.
For ordinary people starting a side hustle, don't first worry about what you can learn; first figure out who is willing to pay.
Search BOSS Zhipin for corporate AI gigs, browse Xianyu for best-selling AI services, and track popular AI sectors on Xiaohongshu. Wherever people are willing to pay, that's where you should give it your all.
Use your skills to connect with market demand, and avoid wasting effort on self-gratification.
Some people translate overseas AI tutorials and post them on Xiaohongshu without appearing on camera.
Some leverage AI to sell products silently, selling 10,000 clothing items.
They have no top-tier technical advantage; they simply identified paying customer groups ahead of time.
There's no need to aimlessly browse all kinds of tutorials. Spending twenty minutes researching real demand on platforms is far better than painstakingly working through hundreds of study materials alone.

BTC at $65,100: breakout or fakeout?

Look at the surface first: plenty of positive catalysts, but it just won't rise.

It has been nearly a year since falling from its $126,000 ATH, and BTC has been drifting in the $58,000-$68,000 range for nine weeks. Spot ETF net inflows totaled $750 million this week, while whales added 20k BTC; all the headlines are shouting “buy,” yet every time the price reaches $65,500, it gets slapped back down. The K-lines are tangled, trading volume is shrinking, and both bulls and bears are pretending to be dead. The longer it builds up, the farther it shoots.

First: ETFs are buying and whales are accumulating, but retail is capitulating.

U.S. spot ETFs saw $750 million in net inflows this week, exceeding $200 million several times in a single day—the strongest weekly inflow since April. On-chain activity is even more aggressive: wallets holding 10-10,000 BTC have accumulated more than 20k BTC since July 29, worth approximately $1.2 billion.

Second: tonight's NFP is the starting gun.

Today's focus: U.S. nonfarm payrolls. A soft number → rising rate-cut expectations → breakout above $65,500, targeting $68,000-$70,000. A strong number → continued hawkishness → break below $64,000, with a retest of $62,300-$62,800.

So what do you think happens tonight? I don't know. But I do know one thing:

After nine weeks trapped in this range, the breakout day will have a swing of no less than $5,000.

Third: the technicals are already stretched to the limit.

On the daily chart, the descending trendline has capped price for nearly a year, drawn all the way down from $126,000, and is now at $65,500-$66,000. Three attempts to break higher, and all three have been slapped back down.

RSI is in the neutral zone, MACD momentum is flat, the long-short ratio is close to 1:1, and funding rates are balanced. The market is wearing everyone down until they lose their patience, then it will choose a direction and wipe out the other side.

Support below: $64,000 short term → $62,300-$62,800 strong support → $60,000 psychological floor

Resistance above: $65,500-$66,000 (range ceiling) → $68,000-$70,000 (breakout target)

You be the judge in the bull-bear showdown

On one side:

ETF net inflows of $750 million this week, the strongest since April

Whales accumulated 20k BTC over seven days, worth approximately $1.2 billion

The range has lasted nine weeks, providing ample time to build momentum

Post-halving supply tightening, with the long-term narrative intact

On the other side:

Strategy is selling, creating a sentiment shock

Tensions in the Middle East are pushing up oil prices, reviving inflation concerns

The CLARITY vote has been postponed until September, disappointing in the short term

Three failed attempts to break $65,500, with a high risk of a fakeout

The key level is $65,200, just $300 below the $65,500 line of life and death.

Trading strategy (no fluff)

Short-term traders:

Break above $65,500 with rising volume → go long with a small position, target $66,000-$68,000, stop-loss at $64,200

Strong momentum + break below $64,500 → test a short with a small position, target $63,000-$62,300, stop-loss at $65,500

Swing traders:

Accumulate in batches on a pullback to $62,300-$63,000, in line with the whale accumulation logic

Go long on a daily close holding above $66,000, target $70,000+

Stop out below $62,000 and wait for new support

Risk-management rules:

Watch funding rates on perpetuals; don't stubbornly hold losing positions

August has a high probability of bringing its “curse”; don't bet on a direction with your entire portfolio

Keep an eye on three things: NFP, oil prices, and the U.S. Dollar Index

BTC now looks just like its second-half-2019 self—

It traded sideways for nearly half a year, and everyone was cursing that “BTC was over.” What happened in 2020, I don't need to say, right?

Nine weeks of buildup won't produce just one fart.#非农之夜定涨跌方向 #股票交易分享挑战 #Gate首发上线10只A股合约 $BTC $ETH $SOL

Two Macro Signals That Have Preceded Every Major Crypto Bull Run

Two macro indicators have consistently appeared before crypto's biggest bull markets:

• ISM Manufacturing above 55
• Russell 2000 breaking to new highs

In 2016, both signals aligned before the first major crypto bull run.

The same pattern returned in 2020, when the total crypto market grew from around $400 billion to more than $2.5 trillion.

In 2025, this combination never materialized because ISM Manufacturing remained below 50.

Now, the picture has changed.

ISM Manufacturing has risen to 55.6
The Russell 2000 has reached a new all-time high

While no indicator guarantees future performance, this is one of the strongest macro combinations seen in previous cycles.

If history rhymes, the coming months could become a very important period for the crypto market.

As always, manage risk, do your own research, and avoid making decisions based solely on historical patterns.

ACE at $0.123—would you dare bet on it?

First, on the surface: a rebound from the all-time low, but no one dares believe it.

ATH $17 → low $0.06, a cumulative drop of over 99%. After bottoming in mid-to-late July, it saw multiple explosive single-day rallies of 50%-128%, all driven by short squeezes and liquidation waves. Today, the price is oscillating around $0.123, with 24-hour trading volume ranging from tens of millions to over 100 million USDT, showing a clear surge in volume. The candlesticks tell you: it has broken out of a multi-month descending channel, a short-term bottom is in place, short fuel is nearly exhausted, and the short squeeze may have just begun.

First question: after falling from $17 to $0.06, who is buying the dip?

What is the first reaction of retail investors when they see ACE?

“A coin going to zero. Stay away.”

But from $0.06 to $0.123, it has already risen 105%. In this market, there are no garbage assets, only garbage prices.

Shorts placed dense sell orders in the $0.10-$0.12 range. What happened? Several consecutive rallies directly crushed the shorts, with millions of dollars liquidated in a single day, and shorts holding absolute dominance. Now it is moving sideways around $0.123 with a low-volume pullback—this is a typical signal that short fuel has been exhausted.

Second question: are the fundamentals really that bad?

Fusionist is an independently developed AAA mech strategy game that supports Steam/Epic, and players can enjoy it without knowing anything about crypto. ACE is the Gas token of Endurance L1 and the core of the game economy, with a maximum supply of 147 million and approximately 107 million in circulation (73%), while its market cap is only $13 million-$18 million.

Its market cap is lower than that of a Meme coin launched by an influencer

The game is available on Steam, with real users and revenue

The team is actively working, not in an apparent exit-scam state

Its 2023 ATH valuation was worth several billion dollars, but now only a fraction remains

Third question: a signal has appeared on the technical chart that must be taken seriously.

The daily chart has broken through a multi-month descending channel, forming a short-term bottom structure. $0.10-$0.11 is the previous breakout zone plus the lower boundary of the channel, making it a strong support area. $0.06 is highly likely to be the iron bottom of this bear market cycle. RSI has retreated from overbought to neutral, MACD momentum is converging without weakening, and the pullback is occurring on lower volume—a healthy shakeout.

You decide who wins the bulls-versus-bears battle

On one side:

A violent 105% rebound from $0.06, with the trend now bullish

Shorts have been liquidated repeatedly, and their fuel continues to be consumed

A breakout from the multi-month descending channel, with the technical structure improving

Extremely low market cap, low cost to push the price up, and plenty of room for FOMO

On the other side:

Fundamentals lack sustained catalysts

Unlocking pressure remains

If BTC breaks below $60k, small-cap assets will bear the brunt

High volatility—it can fall 30% or rise 50% in a single day

Key levels

Upside resistance: $0.14-$0.15 → $0.16-$0.19 → $0.20+

Downside support: $0.10-$0.11 → $0.08-$0.09 → $0.06 (iron bottom)

Short-term traders:

If it stabilizes around $0.123 on declining volume, consider going long, with a stop-loss at $0.115 and a target of $0.14-$0.15. Add to the position if it breaks and holds above $0.13-$0.135 on rising volume, targeting $0.16-$0.19. If it breaks below $0.11 on rising volume, exit decisively and wait to re-enter at $0.09-$0.10.

Swing traders:

If it pulls back to $0.10-$0.11 and forms a daily bullish candle on rising volume or a bullish divergence, build long positions in batches, targeting $0.15→$0.19, with a stop-loss below $0.08.

Long-term gamblers:

Use a dollar-cost averaging strategy in batches below $0.10. The project is not dead, the game is operating, and the market cap is extremely low. The bet is on the return of the GameFi bull market and ACE being listed on major exchanges.

ACE now looks just like SOL at the end of 2022—

Everyone said “it’s going to zero,” but it ended up rising from $8 to $200. #宇树发行价150.80元中一签能赚多少 #非农之夜定涨跌方向 #股票交易分享挑战 $BTC $SOL $ACE

The Starbucks from CoinAnk—let’s take a look at the order flow.

SNDK at $1,290—would you dare buy the dip?

First, look at the surface: explosive earnings, plunging price.

August 5 earnings: Q4 revenue of $8.97 billion, up 372% year over year and 51% quarter over quarter, with Non-GAAP EPS of $39.25, all beating expectations. Full-year revenue was $20.25 billion, up 175% year over year. And then? The stock plunged 7% directly after hours and continued to get hammered the next day.

From the June ATH of 2354 to 998 at the end of July, it rebounded to above 1400 before being hammered back down by the earnings report—the good news had been fully priced in, turning into bad news.

First question: With earnings this good, why did it fall instead of rise?

Revenue of $8.97 billion, 372% year-over-year growth, and a record gross margin of 84.6%—in any industry, these would be god-tier figures.

But Wall Street never looks at the past; it only looks at the future.

Q1 FY2027 guidance: revenue of $10.3-$10.8 billion and EPS of $44-$46. The numbers are good, but some investors were expecting even more. The market had already pushed the stock from $40 to 2354, and the AI storage narrative had already priced in three quarters of gains.

This is called “buy the expectation, sell the fact.”

Second: SNDK’s fundamentals are much stronger than you think.

SanDisk is now a pure NAND flash company, and it delivered these results in its first year as an independent company. AI data-center storage demand has transformed the company from a “cyclical stock” into a “growth stock.”

Data-center revenue surged from 12% to 38% of total revenue, doubling quarter over quarter to $2.98 billion

Long-term NBM contracts lock in more than 50% of FY2027 output and approximately two-thirds of FY2028 output, guaranteeing $94 billion in revenue

Advancing HBF standardization with SK hynix for AI inference—this is the core catalyst for the next wave of growth

Third: A signal has emerged on the technical chart that must be taken seriously.

The drop from 2354 to 998, a 45% retracement, is already deep enough. The V-shaped rebound around 998 at the end of July proved that there was strong buying support at this level. At 1290, the stock is near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, a zone of clustered previous lows and psychological support.

But 1350-1400 is former support turned resistance, and the selling pressure after the earnings report has not been fully absorbed. Investor Day on August 13 could be the next catalyst.

Bulls vs. bears—you decide

On one side:

Q4 revenue of $8.97 billion, up 372%, crushing expectations

Record gross margin of 84.6%, with extremely strong operating leverage

NBM contracts locking in $94 billion in guaranteed revenue

$14 billion in buybacks, with management providing real cash support

The drop from 2354 to 998 represents a sufficiently deep 45% retracement

On the other side:

Guidance is good but below some of the higher expectations

The memory sector is pulling back across the board (MU and WDC are also down)

High beta (4+), amplifying broader-market volatility

The 1350-1400 resistance zone has held three times

Key levels

Upside resistance: 1350-1400 → 1450-1500 → 1700+

Downside support: 1250-1280 → 1200-1220 → 1100-1150 → 998 (iron floor)

Short-term traders:

If 1250-1280 holds and the stock breaks above 1320-1350, cautiously go long with a light position, targeting 1400-1450, with a stop-loss below 1220. If it breaks below 1220 on heavy volume, turn bearish and target 1150-1100.

Swing traders:

Wait for a pullback to the 1150-1200 range, then scale into long positions after a daily bullish divergence and a high-volume bullish candle, targeting 1500+, with a stop-loss below 1000.

Long-term believers:

Start dollar-cost averaging below 1200. AI storage demand is not hype; it is real structural growth. Investor Day on August 13 could be a catalyst. The 2027 target is 2000+, betting on HBF standardization and the ramp-up of AI inference.

Additional reminder

Keep an eye on three things:

Memory-sector correlation (MU and WDC)—they rise and fall together, but SNDK has greater elasticity

Funding rates—positive rates indicate crowded longs, while negative rates indicate crowded shorts

Investor Day on August 13—it could be the next breakout point

SNDK is not a meme coin; it is an RWA asset with real revenue, buybacks, and long-term contracts. No matter how volatile it is in the short term, the $94 billion in guaranteed revenue does not lie.

SNDK now looks like NVDA in 2023—

When the AI narrative was just getting started, everyone thought it had “risen too much,” but every pullback turned out to be an opportunity to get in. #MoonshotAIPreIPOs开启 #非农之夜定涨跌方向 #股票交易分享挑战 $SNDK $SKHY $MU

As the bear market cycle has progressed, old coins have instead grown quiet
VDD Multiple does not measure ordinary trading volume, but how long the coins that move on-chain had previously remained dormant.
The meaning is completely different when the same 1 coin is sold after being held for 5 days versus transferred again after sitting for 5 years. The longer it is held, the greater the coin age destroyed, and the greater its reference value for the market.
Looking back at around 2013–2014, 2017, 2021, and 2024, VDD rose above 2.9 each time.
These highs did not necessarily correspond to BTC's highest price, but the underlying behavior was similar: long-term holders began transferring their coins in concentrated fashion, realizing profits amid market liquidity.
Therefore, high VDD is better suited to observing cycle distribution and should not be used mechanically to call a market top.
The current situation is exactly the opposite.
VDD has fallen back to around 0.75, approaching the low-value zone again. After BTC underwent a major correction, long-term holdings were not transferred continuously or in a concentrated manner.
Moreover, when prices previously reached higher levels, VDD did not show the extreme peaks seen in 2017 and 2021. Prices rose higher, but the selling intensity of old coins did not increase correspondingly.
The current situation looks more like long-term holders choosing to wait after high-cost holdings were flushed out, rather than the concentrated distribution commonly seen at cycle tops.
However, low VDD cannot prove that a bottom has already formed.
It only shows that old coins are unwilling to sell; it does not mean new buying has returned. If the market lacks liquidity, prices may still continue to fall.
Next, I will watch for two changes:
No new lows, while VDD continues to remain below 0.75. This would indicate that selling pressure is contracting and old coins remain locked up, making the bottom structure more solid.
A rebound accompanied by VDD quickly breaking above 1.5, or even returning above 2.9. This would indicate that dormant coins are beginning to realize profits into the rebound, and overhead selling pressure may rise again.
So what I care more about now is not whether the old coins have finished selling.
It is how much longer the market will need to correct before new buying returns, now that these coins are no longer willing to sell.
Would you position early while old coins remain silent, or wait for a confirmed reversal before entering?

🚨 Breaking:

Gold and silver just added approximately $850B in value in the last 9 hours.

Capital is rotating into hard assets as investors seek protection amid rising market uncertainty.

#MoonshotAIPreIPOsOpen
#UnitreeIPOPrice150.80Yuan
#NFPNightSetsTheDirection

Over the past two days, the tactical positions have shifted to a defensive approach. 1. Two assets are relatively stable: one is gold, steadily moving upward; the other is Bitcoin, moving sideways steadily. I’m long on both; 2. I was also chatting with the community today: in fact, many coins in the crypto market (major altcoins and blue-chip altcoins) have been moving sideways at this level for a long time. The reason they haven’t moved is that the leader hasn’t given a signal, so they don’t dare choose a direction;

📊 JUST IN: CEX futures volume fell to $4 trillion in July, its lowest level since December 2023, per CryptoRank.#MoonshotAIPreIPOsOpen

Gold at $4,315—tonight’s nonfarm payrolls will decide everything!
First, on the surface: geopolitical risk aversion plus weak data have sent gold soaring.
Over the past month or so, gold has rebounded nearly 10% from 3,940, touching 4,320+ today, up 1.8% intraday. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, along with weak ADP and initial jobless claims data, have all fueled gold’s rally. The price has broken above the ascending channel, daily momentum has strengthened, and the bullish structure remains intact—now just waiting for confirmation from nonfarm payrolls.
First: You may have completely misunderstood why gold has surged.
Many people think gold is rising because of the war. Wrong.
Geopolitical conflict has indeed provided safe-haven sentiment, but the real driver behind gold’s rise from 3,940 to 4,320 is:
U.S. economic data has broadly weakened, forcing the Federal Reserve to turn.
Yesterday’s ADP and initial jobless claims data both came in below expectations, and the market immediately priced in a further decline in the probability of a September Fed rate hike. A weaker dollar and falling U.S. Treasury yields—this is the underlying logic behind gold’s surge.
Second: Tonight’s nonfarm payrolls will be the real judge of life or death.
The market expects approximately 80k new nonfarm jobs in July (previously 57k), with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%.
Path one: Data weaker than expected (<60,000–70k)
Rate hike expectations cool completely and the dollar plunges
Gold breaks directly above 4,340, targeting 4,500
Entering around 4,315 now could still give you a 4% gain
Path two: Data stronger than expected (>120k)
“Higher for longer” expectations strengthen and the dollar rebounds
Gold could pull back to 4,220 or even 4,200
Chasing the highs now means a single data release could wipe out 3% of your position
Third: The technicals are giving you a clear signal.
A long upper wick has appeared on the 4-hour chart, the price is near the upper Bollinger Band, and RSI is approaching overbought levels—this is a typical “short-term correction signal.” The market has risen too much in the short term and needs to catch its breath.
But as long as 4,280–4,300 holds, the bullish structure remains fully intact. If the price can hold this range before nonfarm payrolls, a favorable release could send it straight into a rocket launch.
Key levels:
Upside resistance:
4,340 (today’s key level; a breakout means 4,500)
4,360–4,400 (psychological level)
Downside support:
4,280–4,300 (the bulls’ lifeline)
4,220–4,240 (first pullback target)
4,045–4,000 (strong demand zone; a break below turns the trend bearish)
Bulls versus bears—you decide
On one side:
Geopolitical risks remain elevated (the Strait of Hormuz + U.S.-Iran tensions)
ADP and initial claims have weakened across the board, boosting rate cut expectations
Central banks continue buying gold, along with purchases from Chinese institutions
The technicals have broken above the ascending channel, with daily momentum strengthening
On the other side:
A long upper wick has appeared on the 4-hour chart, signaling strong short-term correction pressure
RSI is approaching overbought levels
If nonfarm payrolls exceed expectations, a dollar rebound could trigger a direct sell-off
The historical high of 5,602 is still weighing overhead
Before the data:
Test long positions lightly around 4,315, with a stop-loss below 4,280 and targets at 4,340 → 4,360/4,400.
After the data (two scenarios):
Weak data (<70k):
Add to longs and chase directly on a break above 4,340, move the stop-loss up to 4,310, and target 4,500. This move could deliver the full gain.
Strong data (>120k):
Follow short if the price breaks below 4,220, targeting 4,150–4,100, with a stop-loss at 4,260.
Buy the pullback (the most conservative approach):
If the price stabilizes at 4,220–4,240 after the data (long lower wick + high-volume rebound), add to longs, set a stop-loss below 4,200, and target a return to 4,300+.
A word of advice
Reduce leverage: Keep it within 5–10x before and after nonfarm payrolls; don’t bet your life
Watch funding rates: Market sentiment is currently bullish, so funding could become more expensive
Don’t bet heavily on the data: I’ve seen far too many people return to square one overnight
You didn’t dare buy when gold fell from 5,600 to 3,940.
Now that it has rebounded to 4,320, you think it’s “too high.”
When it breaks above 4,500 or even 5,000, will you be kicking yourself again?
The market always rises amid hesitation and tops amid consensus.
Tonight’s nonfarm payrolls are your final chance in 2026 to get on board at a low level.#宇树发行价150.80元中一签能赚多少 ##CLARITY法案投票窗口即将关闭 $XAU $XAUT $BTC