Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

As the bear market cycle has progressed, old coins have instead grown quiet
VDD Multiple does not measure ordinary trading volume, but how long the coins that move on-chain had previously remained dormant.
The meaning is completely different when the same 1 coin is sold after being held for 5 days versus transferred again after sitting for 5 years. The longer it is held, the greater the coin age destroyed, and the greater its reference value for the market.
Looking back at around 2013–2014, 2017, 2021, and 2024, VDD rose above 2.9 each time.
These highs did not necessarily correspond to BTC's highest price, but the underlying behavior was similar: long-term holders began transferring their coins in concentrated fashion, realizing profits amid market liquidity.
Therefore, high VDD is better suited to observing cycle distribution and should not be used mechanically to call a market top.
The current situation is exactly the opposite.
VDD has fallen back to around 0.75, approaching the low-value zone again. After BTC underwent a major correction, long-term holdings were not transferred continuously or in a concentrated manner.
Moreover, when prices previously reached higher levels, VDD did not show the extreme peaks seen in 2017 and 2021. Prices rose higher, but the selling intensity of old coins did not increase correspondingly.
The current situation looks more like long-term holders choosing to wait after high-cost holdings were flushed out, rather than the concentrated distribution commonly seen at cycle tops.
However, low VDD cannot prove that a bottom has already formed.
It only shows that old coins are unwilling to sell; it does not mean new buying has returned. If the market lacks liquidity, prices may still continue to fall.
Next, I will watch for two changes:
No new lows, while VDD continues to remain below 0.75. This would indicate that selling pressure is contracting and old coins remain locked up, making the bottom structure more solid.
A rebound accompanied by VDD quickly breaking above 1.5, or even returning above 2.9. This would indicate that dormant coins are beginning to realize profits into the rebound, and overhead selling pressure may rise again.
So what I care more about now is not whether the old coins have finished selling.
It is how much longer the market will need to correct before new buying returns, now that these coins are no longer willing to sell.
Would you position early while old coins remain silent, or wait for a confirmed reversal before entering?

🚨 Breaking:

Gold and silver just added approximately $850B in value in the last 9 hours.

Capital is rotating into hard assets as investors seek protection amid rising market uncertainty.

#MoonshotAIPreIPOsOpen
#UnitreeIPOPrice150.80Yuan
#NFPNightSetsTheDirection

Over the past two days, the tactical positions have shifted to a defensive approach. 1. Two assets are relatively stable: one is gold, steadily moving upward; the other is Bitcoin, moving sideways steadily. I’m long on both; 2. I was also chatting with the community today: in fact, many coins in the crypto market (major altcoins and blue-chip altcoins) have been moving sideways at this level for a long time. The reason they haven’t moved is that the leader hasn’t given a signal, so they don’t dare choose a direction;

📊 JUST IN: CEX futures volume fell to $4 trillion in July, its lowest level since December 2023, per CryptoRank.#MoonshotAIPreIPOsOpen

Gold at $4,315—tonight’s nonfarm payrolls will decide everything!
First, on the surface: geopolitical risk aversion plus weak data have sent gold soaring.
Over the past month or so, gold has rebounded nearly 10% from 3,940, touching 4,320+ today, up 1.8% intraday. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, along with weak ADP and initial jobless claims data, have all fueled gold’s rally. The price has broken above the ascending channel, daily momentum has strengthened, and the bullish structure remains intact—now just waiting for confirmation from nonfarm payrolls.
First: You may have completely misunderstood why gold has surged.
Many people think gold is rising because of the war. Wrong.
Geopolitical conflict has indeed provided safe-haven sentiment, but the real driver behind gold’s rise from 3,940 to 4,320 is:
U.S. economic data has broadly weakened, forcing the Federal Reserve to turn.
Yesterday’s ADP and initial jobless claims data both came in below expectations, and the market immediately priced in a further decline in the probability of a September Fed rate hike. A weaker dollar and falling U.S. Treasury yields—this is the underlying logic behind gold’s surge.
Second: Tonight’s nonfarm payrolls will be the real judge of life or death.
The market expects approximately 80k new nonfarm jobs in July (previously 57k), with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%.
Path one: Data weaker than expected (<60,000–70k)
Rate hike expectations cool completely and the dollar plunges
Gold breaks directly above 4,340, targeting 4,500
Entering around 4,315 now could still give you a 4% gain
Path two: Data stronger than expected (>120k)
“Higher for longer” expectations strengthen and the dollar rebounds
Gold could pull back to 4,220 or even 4,200
Chasing the highs now means a single data release could wipe out 3% of your position
Third: The technicals are giving you a clear signal.
A long upper wick has appeared on the 4-hour chart, the price is near the upper Bollinger Band, and RSI is approaching overbought levels—this is a typical “short-term correction signal.” The market has risen too much in the short term and needs to catch its breath.
But as long as 4,280–4,300 holds, the bullish structure remains fully intact. If the price can hold this range before nonfarm payrolls, a favorable release could send it straight into a rocket launch.
Key levels:
Upside resistance:
4,340 (today’s key level; a breakout means 4,500)
4,360–4,400 (psychological level)
Downside support:
4,280–4,300 (the bulls’ lifeline)
4,220–4,240 (first pullback target)
4,045–4,000 (strong demand zone; a break below turns the trend bearish)
Bulls versus bears—you decide
On one side:
Geopolitical risks remain elevated (the Strait of Hormuz + U.S.-Iran tensions)
ADP and initial claims have weakened across the board, boosting rate cut expectations
Central banks continue buying gold, along with purchases from Chinese institutions
The technicals have broken above the ascending channel, with daily momentum strengthening
On the other side:
A long upper wick has appeared on the 4-hour chart, signaling strong short-term correction pressure
RSI is approaching overbought levels
If nonfarm payrolls exceed expectations, a dollar rebound could trigger a direct sell-off
The historical high of 5,602 is still weighing overhead
Before the data:
Test long positions lightly around 4,315, with a stop-loss below 4,280 and targets at 4,340 → 4,360/4,400.
After the data (two scenarios):
Weak data (<70k):
Add to longs and chase directly on a break above 4,340, move the stop-loss up to 4,310, and target 4,500. This move could deliver the full gain.
Strong data (>120k):
Follow short if the price breaks below 4,220, targeting 4,150–4,100, with a stop-loss at 4,260.
Buy the pullback (the most conservative approach):
If the price stabilizes at 4,220–4,240 after the data (long lower wick + high-volume rebound), add to longs, set a stop-loss below 4,200, and target a return to 4,300+.
A word of advice
Reduce leverage: Keep it within 5–10x before and after nonfarm payrolls; don’t bet your life
Watch funding rates: Market sentiment is currently bullish, so funding could become more expensive
Don’t bet heavily on the data: I’ve seen far too many people return to square one overnight
You didn’t dare buy when gold fell from 5,600 to 3,940.
Now that it has rebounded to 4,320, you think it’s “too high.”
When it breaks above 4,500 or even 5,000, will you be kicking yourself again?
The market always rises amid hesitation and tops amid consensus.
Tonight’s nonfarm payrolls are your final chance in 2026 to get on board at a low level.#宇树发行价150.80元中一签能赚多少 ##CLARITY法案投票窗口即将关闭 $XAU $XAUT $BTC

A highly striking comparison
Net worth: $8.5 billion
Already surpassing the Wang Jianlin family’s $4.4 billion
He bid for lunch with Warren Buffett back then, sparking controversy across the internet
Now TRON has grown substantially, and his net worth has skyrocketed
But an even greater hidden risk lies ahead
China has begun retrospective investigations into income from offshore capital
TRON’s early R&D, funding, and business foundations were all in China
Under resident tax rules, there is a risk of substantial back taxes plus late fees; with a net worth of $8.5 billion, a 20% tax rate plus late fees could roughly amount to tens of billions of dollars
If authorities really target him, the liquidity test for the crypto industry may have only just begun~

31 Harsh Social Truths That May Sound Extremely Brutal but Can Save You 20 Years of Wrong Turns:
1. If you collapse today, someone new will replace you in your position within a week, and no one will remember that you ever left.
2. The vast majority of people only care about themselves. Learn to leverage this; cater to their selfish desires, and you can gain the upper hand.
3. You either become an investor in assets or a bill tracker. The former leads to wealth, while the latter is destined for poverty. There is a limit to how much you can save, so prioritize investing in assets that can continuously generate returns and appreciate in value.
4. Becoming wealthy will make your life 10 times easier. Money is not dirty; becoming rich is a goal you should pursue openly and proudly.
5. Wherever you are, you are either solving problems or creating them. There is no true middle ground.
6. Most ordinary people are fundamentally timid. There is nowhere near as much competition in this world as you think; dare to act decisively, and you have already won most of the battle.
7. If you spend too much time with people who merely coast through life, you will never make a comeback. Cut yourself off decisively from negative circles, without the slightest guilt.
8. The essence of sales and marketing is telling others what help you can provide and charging them when they need it. Stop acting so self-righteous, or you will stay poor for life.
9. Life can throw unexpected disasters at you at any moment, so prepare yourself mentally in advance. Even when you hit rock bottom, never disrupt your good daily habits.
10. Extremely intelligent people often accomplish nothing because they overthink. Abandon excessive thinking and focus on ruthless execution.
11. Confidence does not come from daydreaming. Self-confidence comes from countless repetitions and the assurance forged by producing results through sheer effort.
12. No one really cares about you; everyone is busy focusing on themselves. Do whatever you want, and treat other people’s opinions as air.
13. Haters and critics are merely jealous of what you have that they cannot obtain. Treat those voices as jealousy, not advice.
14. The ultimate tool for self-discipline: limit your daily phone-scrolling time to no more than 10 minutes. You will suddenly find that you have gained tons of time.
15. Games are an excellent tool for understanding game theory in the real world. Go ahead and play; do not listen to the disparagement of the ignorant.
16. When you are unknown, no one will support you; when you achieve success and fame, everyone will gather around you because they want to bask in your glory.
17. You are not suffering from burnout; you are doing something you have no interest in with people you dislike while being forced to violate your own values.
18. Feeling pressure is a sign that you are growing. Constantly avoiding pressure will only condemn you to mediocrity.
19. Treating negative emotions as an illness will hinder your evolution. Life was never meant to go your way all the time; that is the norm.
20. Your obsession with absolute certainty has destroyed every great opportunity you have ever encountered.
21. Redefine every “problem” you encounter as a “business opportunity,” and your ability to make money will skyrocket.
22. All the goals you set are essentially extreme self-improvement disguised in sheep’s clothing.
23. The big shots you admire have only 24 hours in a day, just like you. Do not use “being busy” as an excuse; you simply set the wrong priorities.
24. Working for someone else is only the first level of life; starting a business and building systems is the second. Do everything you can to leave the first level.
25. Pursuing so-called absolute security is not safe at all; you are merely trading away your chance to win for 100% guaranteed nothing.
26. Your parents have already done their best. Stop complaining endlessly about your family of origin and take back control of your life.
27. There will never be such a thing as the perfect moment. Treat today as the perfect time and start immediately.
28. Only those who dare to be unrealistic truly experience the taste of being alive.
29. Insisting on pursuing completely unique innovation is overrated. Simply copying seemingly dumb but proven methods is faster.
30. Reshape your subconscious so that it becomes your strongest driving force instead of a stumbling block holding you back.
31. Life is short, and you will eventually die. Stop dragging your feet; go all in and show the world what you can do!

The $25 billion AI black hole still can’t be filled: Google’s bond issuance is just the beginning, and a bigger storm is coming

Yesterday, Google did something it had almost never done in its 27 years as a public company—

Borrow money by issuing debt.

Not hundreds of millions, not billions, but $25 billion.

It split the debt into 10 tranches, ranging from 2 to 40 years, with the longest not due until 2066.

Even more astonishingly, investors rushed in like crazy—the subscription amount reached $115 billion, more than four times the offering.

But think about it carefully—

One of the richest tech companies in the world actually has to borrow money to develop AI.

Why?

Because AI is burning cash faster than Google can print it.

In the second quarter, Google’s free cash flow turned negative for the first time in its history. Revenue is growing, and the cloud business is growing, but where’s the money?

It has all been poured into data centers, servers, and chips.

This year’s capital expenditure ceiling has already been raised to $205 billion—more than double 2025’s figure. And just a few weeks ago, Wall Street was still panicking over this number, sending Google’s stock price tumbling.

Now? The money isn’t enough, so it’s issuing debt to make up the difference.

AI is turning the richest companies on Earth into debt-laden borrowers living off borrowed money.

But more worth paying attention to than the debt issuance is another event that happened in the same week—

The core brain of Google’s AI operation has broken apart.

On August 5, Google announced a major restructuring of its AI business.

DeepMind founder Hassabis stepped down as CEO and became chairman and chief scientist of Alphabet. The official explanation was to “focus on long-term strategy”; translated into plain English, it means—he’s no longer handling the day-to-day operations.

Even more significantly, Jeff Dean, Google’s chief scientist who had been with the company for 27 years, left outright.

Three other top AI scientists also left with him.

The industry’s assessment: this is almost equivalent to an entire “AI national team” launching a startup together.

After the news broke, Google’s stock price fell 4%.

Now put these two things together—

On one side, it is desperately borrowing money to build infrastructure; on the other, its core brains are leaving en masse.

Does this scene look familiar?

Doesn’t it resemble Facebook around 2015–2016? The mobile internet dividend had peaked, and it was desperately spending money to buy traffic and users, while its most crucial product talent began leaving.

And then? Then came a long and painful period of transformation.

Of course, Google isn’t Facebook. AI isn’t social networking. But one thing is the same—

When an industry switches from being “technology-driven” to “capital-driven,” the first to leave are often the people who truly understand the technology.

Why?

Because in a capital-driven game, the competition is over who has more money, who has a higher debt ratio, and whose data centers are bigger.

In a technology-driven game, the competition is over whose minds are sharper, whose team is better, and who can achieve breakthroughs faster.

These two logics are fundamentally in conflict.

Discovery Loop, founded by Dean after his departure, is positioned as “using AI to automate scientific and engineering research.” In his statement, he said something highly significant—

“In frontier fields, AI is no longer just about answering questions; it is increasingly focused on discovery.”

In other words: you’re all competing on scale, computing power, and who can burn more money. But the real future lies in competing over “discovery” itself.

Will AI competition depend more on technological breakthroughs or financial investment in the future?

My answer is: in the short term, funding; in the long term, talent. But the most dangerous thing is that—when funding is plentiful, talent is precisely most likely to leave.

Because more money brings more bureaucracy. And when there is more bureaucracy, people who genuinely want to get things done can no longer stay.

What Google is going through today is not AI’s failure, but the price of AI’s success.

The $25 billion bond issuance and the $115 billion investor enthusiasm show that the market still believes in AI’s long-term story.

But Hassabis stepping down and Dean leaving—these signals are telling you another story.

In the first half of the AI race, the competition is over who has more money and greater computing power.

In the second half, the competition will be over who can still retain the people who truly understand AI.

The winners of the first half are Google, Microsoft, and Amazon.

Who will win the second half?

They may not have been founded yet.#宇树发行价150.80元中一签能赚多少 #非农之夜定涨跌方向 #股票交易分享挑战 $GOOGL $AMZN $NVDA

10 valuable life lessons summed up by my 88-year-old grandfather:
1. Choose your partner and business partners carefully
The cost of choosing the wrong person is far greater than making one bad deal or botching one project.
2. Protect your health
Money can buy many things, but it can never buy back yesterday’s health.
3. Own assets whenever possible (equity, real estate, or a business)
These are what can bring you true freedom and wealth.
4. Cherish your reputation as you would your life
Building a good reputation takes a lifetime, but destroying it takes only one foolish decision.
5. When you fall, bravely stand back up
Never let a bad person, one failure, or a difficult period define your life; let them become nourishment for the lessons that teach you to grow.
6. Stay grateful and humble as you climb upward
The people you meet while rising in good times are the same people you will meet when heading downhill in adversity.
7. Don’t postpone happiness until after you achieve success and fame
Don’t wait until you succeed to enjoy life; happiness lies in the entire journey of life, so learn to enjoy it along the way.
8. The highest form of freedom comes from absolute self-discipline
Freedom without self-discipline is merely indulgence; only self-discipline can give you the ultimate freedom to control your life.
9. Stay away from people and environments that constantly drain you
Your resources and energy in life are limited; save your time for people and things that are worthwhile, and cut your losses promptly.
10. Maintain a broad perspective and a long-term outlook
When you view today’s setbacks across the span of decades, you will find that all the difficulties before you are merely waves on the long river of life.

HYPE at $56—what are you still waiting for?

Look at the surface first: nobody is playing anymore, and the market is as cold as an ice cellar.

It has already fallen 28% from its June ATH of $77 and has been hovering between $51 and $58 for several weeks. The 24-hour fluctuation is under 3%, and trading volume has shrunk enough to make you nod off. JPMorgan says “competition is intensifying and ETF demand is slowing,” while developers are transferring tokens to exchanges again—dead time, but the bottom may be right under our feet.

First: JPMorgan is bearish, but you may be getting misled.
Traditional financial institutions have issued reports saying Hyperliquid is facing competition and ETF inflows have stalled. Retail investors panic: “Even Wall Street has lost confidence—should we run too?”

But JPMorgan also acknowledged Hyperliquid’s positioning as “on-chain financial infrastructure.” The share of RWA trading continues to rise, and during some periods has even surpassed pure crypto perps.

The same report: institutions see “long-term value,” while retail investors see “run.”

Second: HYPE’s fundamentals are stronger than you can imagine.

It is one of the very few assets in the entire crypto market with real revenue:

Cumulative revenue exceeds $1 billion, with 97% used for buybacks and burns

RWA (real-world asset) trading share is rising rapidly

Products have expanded from pure derivatives to stocks, commodities, and IPO-related products

Institutions such as Grayscale have given it a 15-18x forward earnings valuation, benchmarked against Coinbase

Third: a signal has emerged on the technical chart that must be taken seriously.

The price has been range-bound between $51 and $58 for several weeks. After finding support at the early-August low of $51.2, it rebounded to $57-$58 and is now retesting $56. RSI is neutral to slightly low (40-50), MACD is converging, and trading volume has contracted to an extreme—this is the typical calm before the storm.

The upper boundary of the descending channel is around $58, while the lower boundary is around $52. Either a volume-backed breakout above $58 opens up room toward $60-$65, or a break below $52 sends it back to test $48-$50.

You decide in the battle between bulls and bears

On one side:

Strong support at $51-$52 has held multiple times

Over $1 billion in cumulative revenue plus ongoing buybacks

The RWA narrative is expanding, opening up the sector’s upside

Extremely low trading volume = a major move is imminent

On the other side:

JPMorgan is bearish, suppressing sentiment

The development entity is transferring tokens to exchanges

Today’s NFP data may shock the macro market

$58 has failed three times, with bears having the short-term upper hand

Key levels

Upside resistance: $56.5-$58 → $60-$62 → $65-$70

Downside support: $55 → $53.5-$54 → $51-$52 (the life-or-death line for bulls and bears)

Aggressive short-term strategy:

Try longs on a pullback to $55-$55.5, stop-loss at $54.5, targets at $56.5-$58; or try shorts on a rebound to $56.8-$58, stop-loss at $58.5, targets at $55-$54. Keep positions small, as there are many false breakouts.

Conservative medium-term strategy:

Go long after a volume-backed daily close above $58, with targets at $60-$65 and a stop-loss at $52. If NFP is weak and $55 holds, consider building a medium-term long position. If $52 breaks, watch $48-$50.

Long-term believers:

Dollar-cost average into spot positions in batches between $51 and $55. The bet is on an RWA narrative breakout plus continued buybacks. But do not stubbornly hold perpetual futures positions; exercise caution around the unlock on the 6th of each month.

Position-sizing rule: risk no more than 1-2% of total capital per trade, with leverage capped at 3-5x.

HYPE now looks just like SOL in early 2024—

While it was moving sideways, everyone was cursing it as “garbage,” but after the breakout it doubled directly. #宇树发行价150.80元中一签能赚多少 #非农之夜定涨跌方向 #股票交易分享挑战 $BTC $SOL $HYPE

$BTC is struggling at resistance again.

A pullback could happen, but I’m not rushing the call.

Let’s wait for the Daily candle to confirm the move before making any assumptions.

#GateLaunches10AShareContracts

The same address completed a large reverse position in xyz:CL within several hours: it previously fully closed a long position of approximately 606.3k quote units and currently holds a short position of approximately 3.28M quote units.
The short position uses 20x cross-margin leverage, with an unrealized loss of approximately 3,047 quote units; the liquidation price is 86.35, approximately 10.38% from the current mark price. The address identity has not yet been confirmed.
Address: 0x40f20b734d7d25ba0b6219e921382fa992a56a9e

Sandisk revenue surged 372%, but its stock crashed 7%—the AI storage bull market is being killed by three words: “too expensive”

Sandisk earnings—revenue of $8.97 billion, up 372% year over year, gross margin of 84.6%, EPS crushing expectations, plus a $14 billion buyback plan.

Western Digital earnings—revenue of $3.75 billion, up 44% year over year, net income surging 12-fold and beating expectations across the board.

And then?

Western Digital fell more than 11% after hours, while Sandisk dropped more than 7%.

At Thursday’s close, Western Digital plunged 13%, while Sandisk fell nearly 7%.

The better the earnings, the harder they fell.

Confused again?

Good. That means you’re still using “how good are the earnings?” to judge whether a stock will rise or fall, while the market stopped playing by those rules long ago.

First, let’s look at what happened.

After the market closed on August 5, Sandisk and Western Digital released their earnings simultaneously.

Sandisk’s Q4 data center revenue was $2.98 billion, up 1,298% year over year and doubling sequentially. It signed 10 long-term agreements covering eight customers, with minimum contracted revenue of $93.9 billion. More than half of its fiscal 2027 supply has already been locked in.

Cloud customers accounted for 89% of Western Digital’s total revenue.

All positive news.

Then Sandisk gave a midpoint revenue outlook of $10.55 billion for the next quarter—below the market expectation of $11.16 billion.

The gap was less than 6%.

The stock crashed 7%.

Western Digital was even more unfairly treated—the midpoint of its next-quarter revenue outlook was $4.1 billion, actually higher than analysts’ expectation of $4.02 billion. Yet it fell 11% after hours.

Goldman Sachs put it bluntly: “The core conflict facing the storage industry right now is not deteriorating fundamentals, but market expectations that have run too far ahead of reality.”

In plain English: It’s not that storage is no longer working; it’s that market expectations for storage have reached the point where you must be perfect, beat expectations every time, and sharply raise guidance every single time.

Sandisk is up 460% year to date, while Western Digital is up 200%.

The market has already fully priced in the “AI storage supply crunch” story a full one or two years ahead of time.

When the stock price has already priced in a perfect “continued acceleration” scenario, any guidance that returns to a normal trajectory—even if the absolute figures still show strong growth—will be interpreted as “growth has peaked.”

This market is no longer satisfied with “good.” It wants “unbelievably good, accelerating forever.”

But what really alarms me is another piece of news.

Nvidia is evaluating lowering the HBM configuration of its next-generation Rubin Ultra.

It originally planned to use HBM4e 12hi, but is now conducting parallel evaluations of lower-spec options such as HBM4e 8hi, HBM4 12hi, and HBM4 8hi.

Even Nvidia cannot secure enough high-end HBM and has been forced to introduce a “lower-spec” GPU.

What does this mean?

It means HBM supply constraints have gone from “a positive for memory makers” to a bottleneck restricting AI chip shipments.

Memory price increases → Nvidia’s costs rise → it is forced to downgrade specifications → AI chip performance takes a hit → cloud providers buy more GPUs → costs continue to rise.

This is a positive-feedback meat grinder.

Is the AI storage bull market still stable?

My judgment is simple:

In the short term, the correction is not over.

As of July 29, leading AI storage stocks had declined by an average of about 40%. But the correction has lasted only one month, so the time-based cleansing is still incomplete. Leverage among Korean retail investors is still unwinding rapidly, with the liquidation rate as high as 7%–8%, far above the 1% level seen in stable market conditions.

In the medium term, opinions diverge widely.

Citigroup says inventories are low and tight supply-demand conditions will persist. Morgan Stanley says memory contract prices will peak in Q4. Renqiao says storage has already peaked.

In the long term, the real risk is not disappearing demand—it is excessively high expectations.

Sandisk’s gross margin was 84.6%, with next-quarter guidance of 83%–85%, flat sequentially. In a market accustomed to the narrative that gross margins are raised every quarter, “flat” was interpreted as “peaking.”

The problem is not with the fundamentals; it is with the valuation.

After a stock has risen 460%, even excellent earnings are merely “in line with expectations,” and during a bubble, “in line with expectations” is bearish. #宇树发行价150.80元中一签能赚多少 #非农之夜定涨跌方向 #股票交易分享挑战 $SNDK $SKHY $WDC

The old guy’s recent post vividly illustrates what it means to “get trapped first, then do the research,” hahaha. Back then, he advised me, but I didn’t listen and got trapped in $CRCL ; this time, I advised him, but he didn’t listen and got trapped in $SPCX .

Are you ready for tonight’s 8:30 showdown with the nonfarm payrolls report?

Iran puts forward an agreement with one hand and drafts legislation with the other—the market is watching “whether it gets signed,” while smart money is watching “whether it can be implemented after it is signed”

On August 5, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said:

“The agreement between Iran and Oman on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is nearing finalization.”

The coordinates of the new route have already been determined. Both the northern and southern routes will be closed. The strait is expected to reopen to navigation in 2 to 4 months. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson also said that the joint statement between the two countries has entered the final review stage.

The whole world breathed a sigh of relief—oil prices were going to fall, inflation was going to decline, and U.S. stocks were going to rise.

Then came the next day.

On August 6, Salimi, a member of the Iranian parliament’s presiding board, publicly released a preliminary draft of a bill.

Its content: ships from the United States, Israel, and other hostile countries would be prohibited from passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Violators would face a fine of up to **20% of the cargo’s value**.

People in the same camp issued completely different statements one after another.

This is Iran’s dual-track strategy—

The agreement is for the world to see.

The proposed new route between Iran and Oman would give Iran control over ships entering the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. This has never happened in the past 60 years. It is viewed as “one of the biggest concessions the Middle East has made to Iran to date.”

Iran holds up the agreement and tells the world: I can cooperate.

The bill is for the United States to see.

The parliamentary draft bans U.S. and Israeli ships from passing through and prohibits Israel-linked cargo from transiting the area. Any country that has “caused harm to Iran” would be denied navigation permits.

Iran holds up the bill and tells the United States: if you do not give me what I want, the law will take effect.

The market has already answered with prices.

Brent crude fell to $79.36 on August 4 amid expectations of a ceasefire and the resumption of navigation. By August 7, it had recovered to $83.48 due to disputes over the conditions for passage through the Strait of Hormuz and security incidents. It rose more than 4% in a single day.

Bitcoin fell toward $64k intraday, down more than 1% from the day’s high. The three major U.S. stock indexes all closed lower for the first time this week.

“The agreement is about to be signed”—oil prices fall. “The bill is about to pass”—oil prices rise.

The market is being led around by the nose by Iran, slapped back and forth.

But the truly fatal question is not yet “whether it gets signed.”

It is “whether it can be implemented after it is signed.”

The shipping industry has already issued a stern warning.

What is the problem?

The United States has already sanctioned Iran’s newly established “Persian Gulf Strait Administration.” Any payment made to the agency could result in the payer’s assets being frozen.

At the same time, the Lloyd’s Market Association has introduced a clause stipulating that if a vessel pays a transit fee for the Strait of Hormuz, its insurance will be terminated.

Do not pay—Iran will not let it pass. Pay—the payer’s assets may be frozen by the United States, and insurers will cancel the policy.

Shipping companies are caught in a dilemma.

Here is the painful truth:

Iran puts forward an agreement with one hand and drafts legislation with the other.

The market is watching “whether it gets signed.” Smart money is watching “whether it can be implemented after it is signed.”

The agreement is diplomatic rhetoric. The bill is a bargaining chip. Implementation is where the real money is.

Next, watch three things:

👉 Will the United States lift the blockade on Iranian ports?

👉 Will shipping companies choose to “pay Iran” or “listen to the United States”?

👉 Will the insurance terms loosen?

The answers to these three questions matter more than any statement that an “agreement is nearing completion.”

An agreement can be repudiated after it is signed. A bill can be amended after it passes. But whether oil tankers can actually pass through the strait—that is where the real money is.#MoonshotAIPreIPOs开启 #宇树发行价150.80元中一签能赚多少 #非农之夜定涨跌方向 $BTC $BZ $CL

A lovely little surprise this morning—received CoinAnk’s first autumn milk tea 🥤 I’ve been using this tool for quite a while, and now I can’t do my daily checks of US stock market quotes without it. Whether it’s detailed asset liquidation data or overall fund flows, everything is clear at a glance, making it easy and reassuring to use.

During Bitcoin’s rebound from $60,000 to $83k, I said that $HYPE was leading Bitcoin’s transition from a bear market to a bull market. In plain English, Bitcoin is currently in the process of bottoming out in a bear market, while HYPE is undergoing a correction within a bull market. Technical analysis: 1. Since 2026, HYPE has formed a five-wave upward impulse from the bottom and is currently undergoing a correction of this rise;

A 14% drop on Wednesday was called an “earnings disaster,” while a 6% rise on Thursday was called “all the bad news being priced in”—the same SpaceX, but two different groups at work

On Wednesday night, you saw SpaceX’s first earnings report—

Revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% year over year and exceeding market expectations.

Net loss narrowed from $1 billion to $540 million.

But AI capital expenditures surged 550% year over year to $18.37 billion, nearly 40% above analysts’ expectations.

The stock plunged directly after hours, falling 14% the next day.

The market’s verdict was: “It’s burning money too aggressively and doesn’t deserve this valuation.”

On Thursday, 911.5 million locked-up shares were unlocked.

What does that mean? Tradable shares surged from 639 million to 1.55 billion, creating nearly $100 billion in potential selling pressure.

The media was flooded with headlines—“A $200M Unlock Flood Is Coming,” “SpaceX’s Most Dangerous Day.”

And then?

The stock rose 6.14% to close at $114.92. Full-day trading volume reached 255 million shares, the highest in a month and a half.

The same company that fell 14% on Wednesday rose 6% on Thursday.

What exactly happened?

First, Wednesday’s 14% plunge was itself the “unlock.”

Two hundred million shares traded in a single day, already flushing out everyone who wanted to run. Market participants had figured it out long ago—the shorts weren’t betting on a collapse in fundamentals; they were betting on insiders selling heavily after the unlock.

But insiders barely sold, leaving the shorts stunned.

Second, short positioning was too crowded, and a short squeeze was ready to erupt.

As of Wednesday’s close, short positions accounted for 36% of the float, with more than $9 billion in unrealized profits.

When the market didn’t fall at Thursday’s open, were the shorts panicking? Of course. Covering means buying, and buying pushes the stock price higher.

Third, Wall Street is voting with real money.

Morgan Stanley reiterated its $300 price target, while JPMorgan raised its target from $225 to $240. At least six brokerages maintained buy ratings.

The Morgan Stanley analyst’s exact words were: “SpaceX is a rare generational compounder.”

Even the options market is betting that the bottom is in—one institutional trader sold $90 puts while buying $220 calls, betting that over the next ten months the stock will not fall 20% and may even double.

But don’t celebrate too soon.

This is not the end.

SpaceX has adopted a nine-stage staggered unlock mechanism. August was only the first wave, with multiple additional batches of shares to be unlocked over time.

The biggest landmine comes in June 2027—6.4 billion shares held by Musk will be unlocked then.

The stock is still below its $135 IPO offering price.

The fact that the unlock did not trigger a decline does not mean it won’t fall later. The supply shock has merely been delayed, not eliminated.

To be frank—

Are the people who criticized AI spending on Wednesday the same people who shouted “all the bad news is priced in” on Thursday?

No.

Short-term capital sold on Wednesday, while long-term believers bought on Thursday.

Retail investors made net purchases of $22.7 million during the first hour of Wednesday’s plunge—in their eyes, aggressive investment in AI is not negative news but a signal that the probability of becoming a long-term winner is rising.

Institutions became cautious because of the surge in capital expenditures, while retail investors viewed heavy investment as the upfront cost of future dominance.

The same earnings report, interpreted in two different ways.

How should SPCX be viewed from here?

In the short term, the negative impact of the unlock has temporarily landed, and relatively strong marginal buying support emerged around $105–$110.

But over the long term, three things will truly determine the stock price:

Whether Starlink can continue generating cash—Starlink revenue was $4.3 billion in the second quarter, making it the only profitable segment, while its user base doubled to 12 million.

Whether AI investment can be converted into revenue—AI business revenue surged 247% year over year to $2.56 billion, but it is still losing $1.26 billion. More than half of Morgan Stanley’s price target comes from its valuation of the AI business.

Whether Starship can progress on schedule—the space business is still losing $540 million, while R&D investment continues to rise.

You panicked during Wednesday’s 14% plunge and experienced FOMO during Thursday’s 6% rise. But the people who truly make money are those who see signals of a bottom during panic and identify the location of the next landmine during the celebration.#MoonshotAIPreIPOs开启 #宇树发行价150.80元中一签能赚多少 #非农之夜定涨跌方向 $BTC $ETH $SPCX

Life is impossible to predict
Li Yapeng had been surrounded by negativity for so many years; it felt like there was no hope for him in this lifetime
Then the hospital owed him rent and was forced to relocate, and that’s how he turned things around
And it was a complete turnaround
Han Hong had done charity work for so many years, and her reputation was untouchable
Just one “go through the motions,” and she is now being attacked from all sides
You could calculate your fate ten thousand times and still never see life’s twists and turns coming