Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

The vote on the BTC CLARITY Act has been postponed to September
It feels like they are deliberately setting a trap and dragging things out
For now, they are just letting the market fluctuate back and forth
Then in September, they will combine it with other bearish factors to trigger a major drop and shake out the market

616 pages of text, 7 opposing votes, 14 business days—CLARITY is stalled not because there isn’t enough time, but because someone doesn’t want it to pass

“Push it forward as a priority after reconvening in September.”

“There simply wasn’t enough time; the recess was too short.”

Is this all you’ve heard over the past couple of days?

Don’t believe it.

Senate Majority Leader Thune confirmed on August 7 that the vote would be delayed until September. Crypto media was filled with optimistic narratives of “delay, not derailment.”

But on Polymarket, the probability of the bill becoming law in 2026 has already fallen from above 70% in early May to 14%.

From 70% to 14%.

This isn’t a time problem. It’s a political problem.

Here’s the painful fact—

Republicans hold only 53 seats in the Senate. Breaking a Democratic filibuster requires 60 votes.

Even if all 53 Republicans support it, they still need at least 7 Democrats.

And those 7 Democrats have already publicly said no.

The 7 Democratic senators who had previously participated in negotiations issued a joint statement in July: “The text proposed by Republicans remains insufficient. Key provisions concerning ethics for elected officials, consumer protection, conflicts of interest, and market integrity must be strengthened.”

The negotiations lasted 11 months, and the bill grew by 300 pages. Republicans basically gave Democrats the changes they wanted.

But at the final moment, all 7 turned against it at once.

Do you think this is because there “wasn’t enough time”?

So what exactly do Democrats want?

Ethics provisions.

The new version of the bill already prohibits the president, vice president, and members of Congress from issuing or sponsoring digital assets while in office. That’s strict enough, right?

Not enough.

Democrats are digging in on two points:

First, enforcement authority is given only to the Justice Department, not state attorneys general.

In plain English: Trump’s Justice Department would enforce provisions targeting Trump?

Do you think Trump would investigate himself?

Second, the provision expires in 2029.

In plain English: after Trump leaves office, the provision automatically disappears.

Democrats call this “wild and unserious.”

Are they right? You decide.

But what truly kills the bill is something else—

Trump’s 2025 financial disclosure showed that he earned more than 1.4 billion dollars from crypto businesses.

Of that, “Trump coin” alone generated 635 million dollars in sales.

1.4 billion dollars.

A president made 1.4 billion dollars in one year by issuing a coin.

Do you think Democrats will let that go?

Republicans want the narrative that “we advanced crypto legislation.” Democrats want the narrative that “we stopped the Trump family from funneling benefits to itself.”

Both sides are using CLARITY as a campaign advertisement.

And the midterm elections are in November.

So what happens after Congress reconvenes in September?

It reconvenes on September 14. There will be only 14 business days left before the midterm elections.

And during those 14 days, the Senate will have to deal with—

The government funding bill (the fiscal year ends on September 30; without passage, the government shuts down).

The National Defense Authorization Act.

The Russia sanctions bill.

The attorney general nomination.

And the midterm elections themselves—lawmakers will have to return to their districts to campaign.

Where does CLARITY rank?

The answer is: it doesn’t make the cut.

“September priority”? Thune’s words sound nice. There’s only so much time on the agenda, and whoever has a higher priority gets on it.

CLARITY is at the bottom of the priority list.

Bernstein has already warned that if the bill cannot pass this year, crypto markets, including Bitcoin, will face a short-term correction.

JPMorgan also said this is “a sign that one of the core regulatory catalysts is wobbling.”

The Kalshi prediction market shows only a 30.84% probability that the bill will pass before December.

From 70% to 30%, then to 14%.

This curve looks worse than BTC’s price chart.

Here’s the most painful part:

The biggest risk this industry faces has never been overly strict regulation, but regulation never arriving.

Uncertainty is the real killer.

Exchanges don’t know whether they’ll still be able to serve U.S. users tomorrow. DeFi protocols don’t know when the next subpoena will arrive. Institutions don’t dare enter because they don’t know whether the rules will change after they do.

CLARITY was supposed to provide the answers.

Instead, Washington said: wait a little longer.

Wait for what?

Wait for the midterm elections to end. Wait for both parties to finish tallying their respective votes. Wait for Trump’s 1.4 billion dollars to stop being the news focus.

The 2026 legislative window has effectively been closed for good.

When Congress reconvenes on September 14, keep an eye on the agenda.

If CLARITY doesn’t appear among the top three items—

Stop waiting. #MoonshotAIPreIPOs开启 #非农爆雷降息预期逆转 #股票交易分享挑战 $BTC $ETH $SOL

In the storage sector, let’s still use $MU Micron as an example: 1. The current consolidation here is also a battle among funds over which direction to take; 2. Most likely, the chart will take one of these two paths. If choosing one of the three storage stocks, taking all factors into consideration (US stocks, volatility, whether the move is technically clean, etc.), I personally choose MU over SK Hynix and SanDisk.

$TAO has been choppy for nearly a month, and it has even formed a head-and-shoulders bottom. When will it take off? If you regularly scan the charts, you’ll find that many altcoins in the crypto market, whether large-cap or blue-chip, are following roughly the same pattern: their chart structures look good, but they just can’t fall further or rise either, remaining range-bound within a narrow range.

I closed the BTC long I opened at 63,000; then I converted his position into ETH.

The Secret Behind Gold’s $250 Surge in Three Days: It Wasn’t More Money—It Was “No One Selling”

On August 4, gold was still grinding around $4,077.

Looking at the candlestick chart, you might think it was no different from the past two months—repeatedly fluctuating between $4,000 and $4,200, going nowhere, almost lifeless.

On August 5, it touched $4,179 intraday.

On August 6, it broke directly above $4,300.

Gold surged more than $200 in three days. Spot gold rose 7.27% for the week, while COMEX futures were quoted at $4,400.

Many people were confused.

“Who is buying? Where is all this money coming from?”

The answer is: no one was buying. No one was selling anymore.

Here is the counterintuitive truth—

This surge was not caused by a massive influx of capital, but by positioning being too light beforehand.

Over the past few months, European and U.S. ETFs and trend-following funds have continued to exit gold. Gold prices plunged from the January high of $5,595 to below $4,000 by the end of June, recording their largest monthly decline since 2008, with a pullback of nearly 30%.

During this process, two things happened:

First, shorts kept piling up. Amid the sustained downtrend, CTA trend-following funds continued accumulating short positions, keeping bearish positioning at elevated levels.

Second, longs kept dwindling. Active equity mutual funds’ holdings in the gold sector fell to their lowest level in nearly four years. Speculative long positions also remained relatively low by historical standards.

The market structure became this: limited selling pressure below and insufficient buying pressure above.

Everyone had left. No one wanted to buy, and hardly anyone wanted to sell anymore.

Then, on August 5, the catalyst arrived.

U.S. ADP employment data for July showed an increase of just 44k jobs, far below expectations. Substantive progress emerged in negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Two variables changed at the same time.

Gold broke above $4,200—a level TD Securities had explicitly identified as necessary for CTAs to trigger short covering.

The moment the level was breached, algorithmic trading systems triggered concentrated orders to close short positions.

Short covering pushed prices higher → more shorts were liquidated → prices continued to surge.

A classic “short squeeze.”

It was not new longs frantically sweeping up the market, but existing shorts lining up to escape.

The data confirms it all.

CFTC data showed that in the week ending August 4, COMEX gold speculators’ net long positions increased by 12,070 contracts to 132,398.

SPDR Gold ETF holdings rose from 999.02 tons on July 17 to 1,014.14 tons on August 5, an increase of more than 15 tons.

This was not a torrential wave of buying. It was people who had previously left beginning to return gradually. Gold positions on the Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded an unusually large single-day increase.

Limited new capital created a massive price impact.

Here is the blunt truth:

This gold surge had less to do with fundamentals than you might think.

Macro expectations determined only the direction—the market structure determined the magnitude.

In a market where “almost no one is selling below,” even a small amount of buying can send prices soaring.

This is fundamentally identical to Bitcoin’s surge in 2021 and the explosive rallies in Meme coins in 2024.

It wasn’t more money. No one was selling anymore.

The same story could easily repeat itself in BTC.

Over the past few months, how many people called BTC garbage, a scam, or a has-been asset? How many repeatedly capitulated around $65,000? How many institutions chose to wait and see after the halving?

When no one is bullish, that “no one selling” structure may already be quietly forming.

Speculative long positioning is at historical lows. Short positions continue to pile up. Market sentiment is extremely bearish.

All it takes is one catalyst—the Federal Reserve signaling a rate cut, continued ETF inflows, or simply a technical breakout—and the short squeeze could repeat.

Gold rose $250 in three days.

If BTC makes a move like that, can you handle it?

Of course, a cold shower—

The one-day gain has already exhausted some short-term momentum.

Gold is more likely to consolidate in the $4,200–$4,400 range in the short term. The next key target is around the 200-day moving average near $4,390.

Don’t chase the rally. Wait for a pullback. Cash is dignity; patience is a weapon.

But the broader direction is already clear—

When an asset is abandoned by everyone, that is precisely when it becomes most dangerous—for shorts.#非农爆雷降息预期逆转 #股票交易分享挑战 #CLARITY法案投票窗口即将关闭 $BTC $XAU $XAUT

Hyperliquid development team HyperLabs has been selling the 433k HYPE ($24.25 million) redeemed from staking early yesterday morning through market maker Flowdesk. ◎Over the past few hours, 165k of the HYPE redeemed from staking by the development team ($9.23 million) was transferred to market maker Flowdesk. ◎Then, 75k HYPE ($4.19 million) was transferred to Hyperliquid and sold for USDC, and 90k HYPE

The Trap Behind the Nonfarm Payrolls “Shock”: Employment Fell by 23k, Yet the Unemployment Rate Dropped

Last night, U.S. July nonfarm payrolls showed employment falling by 23k, versus market expectations for an increase of 80k—sending traders rushing in to go long Bitcoin. “Rate hikes are off the table! Liquidity is about to ease! Let’s go!”

Bitcoin did surge, briefly breaking above $65,300.

But then what?

It pulled back after rising, now at $64,800.

It did rise, but how strong was the move? Compared with this “epic shock” of a data release, the gain was so weak that it was downright unsettling.

Because the market has already started calculating the next bill.

Just how outrageous is this data?

July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23k, versus market expectations for an increase of 80k.

The gap versus expectations exceeded 100k.

Bloomberg reported that the deviation was approximately 5 standard deviations—far beyond the usual range of forecast errors.

This was the third-largest monthly decline in employment since 2020, and the worst performance since February this year.

Even more severe—May and June figures were revised down by a combined 103k.

May was revised down from +129k to +63k, while June was revised down from +57k to +20k.

Over the past 12 months, average monthly nonfarm payroll growth was only 34k.

This is not a “soft landing”; it is a precursor to “hard braking.”

But—the unemployment rate instead fell from 4.2% to 4.1%.

How do you explain that?

The two figures come from different sources: employment data comes from the establishment survey, while the unemployment rate comes from the household survey, with different samples and methodologies.

There is only one key reason: the labor force participation rate fell to 61.4%, its lowest level since early 2021.

264k people exited the labor force.

It was not that more people found jobs, but that more people gave up looking for work.

With the denominator smaller, the unemployment rate naturally fell.

What is even more concerning is the downward revision to the previous figures.

May and June were revised down by a combined 103k.

This is not a revision; it is an admission—that the strength of the labor market had previously been seriously overestimated.

The establishment survey’s sample is changing and its statistical methods are being adjusted. The “resilience” you thought you saw in the labor market over the past few months may have been nothing more than a numbers game.

For the crypto market, this has two implications.

In the short term: bullish.

CME data shows that the probability of a rate hike in September fell from 67% a week ago to 44%.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield quickly fell by approximately 5 basis points.

The U.S. Dollar Index dropped nearly 30 points.

Risk appetite recovered, and Bitcoin broke above $65,300.

The market is now trading on “no rate hike.”

But what about the medium term?

If employment continues to deteriorate, the market’s trading logic could shift from “a pause in rate hikes” to “recession pricing”—

That would not be bullish for risk assets, but bearish.

And don’t forget—CPI is coming next week.

Federal Reserve Chair Warsh has already made his position clear: if inflation data comes in hot, he is prepared to support a September rate hike.

Fed Governor Cook also said that if inflation does not improve, she is ready to support a rate hike.

Kashkari was even more direct: rates need to be raised now to avoid being forced into much larger hikes later.

Nonfarm payrolls pushed down the probability of a rate hike; CPI could send it right back up at any moment.

Here’s the painful truth:

The market is currently trading on “no rate hike,” but it may soon have to trade on “why aren’t they cutting rates when the economy is this weak?”

These two scenarios have completely different implications for BTC.

The former is bullish; the latter is—you thought you had bought the bottom, but instead bought halfway down the recession.

Next week’s CPI will be the real showdown.

That is when you will see:

Employment data telling the Fed “it’s time to stop,” while inflation data tells the Fed “you still can’t stop.”

The Fed is caught in the middle—which side do you think it will choose?#MoonshotAIPreIPOs开启 #非农爆雷降息预期逆转 #股票交易分享挑战 $BTC $ETH $SOL

I’ve recently been looking for a simple-to-use VPN and tried Invincible Star, which turned out to be quite suitable for beginners. You don’t need to study complicated configurations yourself—just download and install it, then connect with one click. When you want to change routes, you can also switch between nodes in different regions, making it fairly convenient to use. It’s currently still in the free trial stage and temporarily supports only Android. After the free data runs out, you can claim more, so anyone who wants to try it out can get started directly.

Hardware falls, everything grows. It has only been a short week since I put forward this view; the logic here is the concentration and rotation of capital. One more hint: $STRC 95 already—those who read my tweets carefully will know what I mean.

When $BTC finally breaks out of this macro downtrend, don't be too quick to fade it.
We saw plenty of traders make that mistake last cycle, trying to overanalyze a move that was actually pretty straightforward.
When the trend truly shifts, the weekly timeframe usually gives the cleanest confirmation.
Sometimes the best trade is simply respecting the breakout.
#BTC #Crypto

The whale who maxed out leverage to short 1,600 BTC ($102 million) the day before yesterday has been hit again: After BTC rebounded to $65.3k just now, another 500 BTC ($32.6 million) position was stopped out. He opened the short with 2.44 million U in principal the morning before yesterday, and now has just $900k left, having lost $1.54 million. Of the 1,600 BTC ($102 million) short position he held, 700 BTC has been stopped out during the rebound, leaving 900 BTC ($58.66 million) in shorts.

I really like my current job
No sun or rain
And the pay is pretty high~
10,000 in five months......

Don’t look at what analysts say; look at how the market’s various sectors are reacting. They’re betting real money, while analysts are betting with their mouths—who do you think you should trust?

Nonfarm payrolls came in far below expectations. Let’s look at the market’s reaction: 1. The U.S. Dollar Index plunged in the short term (Figure 2); 2. The USD/JPY exchange rate plunged in the short term (Figure 3); 3. Gold rallied in the short term (Figure 4). 4. Bitcoin didn’t react worth a damn—don’t look at Bitcoin, it’s tired, hahaha.

After trading storage, switching to BTC is essentially no different from the strategy I used in bull markets of switching from altcoins to BTC after finishing a trade. The core logic is about volatility: altcoins might give you a 30% gain in a day, and storage can do the same; but what you need to consider is whether, after gaining 30% in one day, it will continue to rise another 30% on the second and third days, or enter a highly volatile sideways market. Take SanDisk $SNDK

Keeping a close eye on these memecoins:
​• $PENGU
• $SPX
• $NPC
• $BONK
• $FARTCOIN
​What memecoins are you accumulating right now? Drop your top picks below 👇

Would you dare catch the falling knife at $125 SPCX?

Its August 4 earnings showed revenue of $7.81 billion, up 92% year-over-year, EBITDA up 191%, and $14.1 billion in AI contracts secured. But it rose only 5% after hours before being sold back down, and is currently fluctuating around 125. The IPO price was 135, the ATH was 225, and it is now 8-15% below the IPO price. It has been range-bound between 105-126, with tangled moving averages; volume is expanding but the price is not rising. The battle between bulls and bears is imminent, and a direction is about to be chosen.

First: The earnings were explosive, but what is the market afraid of?

Revenue doubled, Starlink users reached 12 million, Starship V3's test flight succeeded, government Starshield contracts exceeded $6 billion, and the acquisition of Cursor is taking it into the AI enterprise market—sounds like nothing but good news, right?

But the market is focused on just one number: $18.37 billion in AI capital expenditures.

Burning money for growth—the Tesla script is playing out again. The same story: in 2022, Tesla was criticized as an “overvalued bubble,” then rose from 100 to 400.

Every time a great company burns money to expand, retail investors complain while the big players buy.

Second: 900 million shares are being unlocked after the lock-up period, but you may be getting misled.

The first IPO lock-up expiration in August will release approximately 6.9% of the float. Early insider selling will follow, with two more batches coming in December 2026 and June 2027.

6.9% of the float is not going to be dumped all at once

Early employees have extremely low costs, so selling a little to improve their lives is perfectly normal

Bezos sold Amazon stock for 20 years—did that stop Amazon from rising 100-fold?

Insider selling ≠ the company is failing, just like you have to pay rent after getting your salary.

Third: SpaceX's moat is deeper than you can see.

It has a $47.5 billion backlog, with more work than it can handle for the next three years

The only company in the world with reusable rockets + global satellite internet + orbital AI computing power

Collaborating with Nvidia on orbital AI, coordinating with xAI, and creating a closed-loop Musk ecosystem

Without SpaceX, the U.S. space strategy would be crippled

Without Starlink, communications on the Ukrainian battlefield would collapse

Without Starship, NASA's lunar landing program would be stalled

You can judge the bull-bear battle for yourself

One side is:

92% revenue growth, $47.5 billion backlog

Starlink is already profitable, with $14.1 billion in AI contracts

Collaboration with Nvidia, government contracts exceeding $6 billion

The world's only full-chain space industry company

The other side is:

$18.3 billion in AI capital expenditures, burning money for growth

Lock-up selling pressure continuing through 2027

Still currently posting a net loss, with negative free cash flow

A $1.5 trillion market cap, so the valuation is not cheap

Key levels

Resistance above: 128-130 → 135 (psychological IPO price level) → 150+

Support below: 120-122 → 115-117 → 110-105

Trading strategy

Short-term traders:

If the price holds 122-125 and breaks above 128 on rising volume, go long with a small position, targeting 132-135, with a stop-loss at 120. If it breaks below 122, try a small short position, targeting 117-115, with a stop-loss at 128.

Swing traders:

Accumulate in batches on pullbacks to 115-117 or around 110, targeting 130-135 and then 150, with a stop-loss below 105. If the daily close holds above 135, add to the position and target higher.

Long-term believers:

Blindly dollar-cost average in the 110-120 range. SpaceX is not an ordinary stock; it is the world's only operator of space infrastructure. The 2027 target is 200-300, betting on Starlink's global coverage + an explosion in AI computing revenue. But remember—105 is the bottom line; if it breaks, wait for 90 before adding.

SpaceX is now like Tesla in 2018—

99% of people thought “Musk is talking bullshit,” but Tesla rose from 20 to 400. #非农爆雷降息预期逆转 #股票交易分享挑战 #美国ADP就业仅增4.4万 $BTC $SPCX $SPCX

ByteDance's big model is about to arrive!
Insiders revealed: ByteDance is launching training for a 10-trillion-parameter AI model, 3 times the size of Kimi K3, directly targeting Anthropic's most advanced Mythos!
ByteDance has plenty of money and isn't going public, so we can only look at its upstream supply chain:
1. Nvidia $NVDA
The primary source of computing power for ByteDance's training; its overseas clusters heavily use GPUs such as H200 and Blackwell, which are indispensable for pretraining ultra-large models.
2. Broadcom $AVGO
An important partner in ByteDance's development of the SeedChip AI chip and custom accelerators; it also provides high-speed networking chips, with cluster interconnects relying entirely on it.
3. TSMC $TSM
The core foundry for advanced processes; ByteDance-related chips from Nvidia, Broadcom, and others are all manufactured by it, and capacity is tight.
4. Micron Technology $MU
One of the core suppliers of HBM high-bandwidth memory; although direct supply to China is restricted, it indirectly supplies through overseas GPU packaging, benefiting from rising prices driven by strong demand for training memory.
5. Super Micro Computer $SMCI
An expert in assembling complete AI server systems; ByteDance and overseas data centers purchase heavily from it, and its fast shipments and flexibility mean that the expansion of pretraining clusters directly drives orders.
6. Vertiv $VRT
A leader in data center liquid cooling and power systems; ByteDance's massive training clusters generate enormous heat, making liquid-cooling solutions essential, with orders surging in tandem with GPU deployment.
7. Arista Networks $ANET
The king of AI data center switches; the tens of thousands of GPUs used in ByteDance's training rely entirely on its equipment for high-speed interconnection, and its market share remains among the highest.
8. Marvell Technology $MRVL
An expert in high-speed connectivity chips and custom ASICs, as the bandwidth requirements of self-developed training chips explode.
9. Foxconn Industrial Internet $601138
A giant in AI server contract manufacturing, deeply involved in assembling Nvidia and cloud-provider servers and a core contract-manufacturing partner for ByteDance's computing-power expansion.
10. Innolight $300308
A leader in high-speed optical modules and the high-speed highway for internal AI cluster communications; ByteDance and overseas data centers are major customers for 800G/1.6T optical modules, with shipments surging.
11. Inspur Digital Information $000977
A leading domestic AI server manufacturer and an important supplier for domestic intelligent-computing centers and ByteDance-related projects, directly benefiting from the boom in large-model training through server shipments.
12. Applied Materials $AMAT
A leading upstream supplier of chip manufacturing equipment; TSMC and Samsung must purchase its equipment when expanding production of training chips, creating a dual drive from equipment and materials.
Still perpetually short of chips and memory!

Give me ONE meme you actually have conviction in
Not looking to collect 47 random bags either
Either I’m being disciplined
or I’m about to watch everything pump without me
Trying to keep some dry powder, but these charts are making that decision harder by the minute
What’s actually worth adding here ?