Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

The CLARITY Act delay could actually be bullish.
Remember the BlackRock Spot Bitcoin ETF playbook?
In 2022, BlackRock launched its private Bitcoin trust while retail was selling. Later, it filed for a Spot Bitcoin ETF when many had already given up on the market.
By the time the ETF was approved, Bitcoin was entering a major rally, eventually climbing from around $38,700 to $126,000.
Retail started buying after the big news.
Now, the CLARITY Act keeps getting delayed.
What if institutions want cheaper $BTC before clearer regulation potentially opens the door for trillions of dollars to enter crypto?

5 PM Claim the 200 DOS token airdrop!
200 Alpha points, first come, first served
Pre-market value: 60U
Hope everyone can get one.

Don't ask around about me
I get by on Huabei
I don't live as well as you
My husband doesn't treat me well either
He beats me three times a day and starves me for nine meals in three days
My body is covered in injuries, bruised black and blue everywhere

The big short seller who once shouted “storage winter” has just turned bullish: Is the bull-market script for storage stocks back on track?

In 2021, one person published a report that sent the global semiconductor sector into a collective avalanche.

That report was titled—“Memory, Winter is Coming.”

The person who published it was Shawn Kim, Morgan Stanley’s chief semiconductor analyst.

From then on, he was dubbed the “spokesperson for short sellers” by the South Korean market.

Five years later, today, the same person has just changed his tune.

On August 7, Shawn Kim released his latest research report, officially shifting from bearish to bullish.

He said: The most severe adjustment in the memory chip industry is nearing its end, and current valuations now offer an “attractive tactical entry point.”

He described this adjustment as—

“A minor ripple in the AI supercycle.”

You may be thinking: Why make such a big deal about one analyst turning bullish?

But the irony of this is ten times more intense than you might think.

Just two weeks ago, SK hynix kicked Morgan Stanley out of the underwriting syndicate for its $26.5 billion U.S. IPO.

The largest U.S. IPO ever by a foreign company. At an underwriting fee rate of 0.5%, the commission alone would have been $130 million.

The final underwriting syndicate consisted of Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase.

Morgan Stanley was the only top-tier investment bank left out.

The industry generally believes that the direct reason for Morgan Stanley’s exclusion was that it had repeatedly published bearish reports on South Korean semiconductors, including the famous “Memory, Winter is Coming.”

You’re bearish on my company while trying to earn $130 million in underwriting fees from me?

SK hynix: Sorry, the door is over there.

And then?

Then Morgan Stanley turned around and chased the upside.

Not only did it turn bullish, but it did so particularly aggressively—

It maintained a target price of 2.6 million won for SK hynix and 381k won for Samsung Electronics.

Based on the benchmark share prices used in the report, these imply potential upside of approximately 74% and 65%, respectively.

What’s even more striking is that Morgan Stanley also raised its 2026 EPS forecast for SK hynix by 13%.

A company that just kicked you out of its IPO underwriting syndicate—

You not only refuse to get angry, but also raise its earnings forecast and give it 74% upside to your target price.

What do you call this?

“Talking the talk but not walking the walk.”

So what exactly has Morgan Stanley set its sights on?

First, valuations have become absurdly cheap.

Storage stocks are currently trading at around 3 times forward 12-month estimated earnings, reflecting almost none of the long-term growth premium.

What does a 3x P/E mean?

Cheaper than bank stocks.

Second, AI demand is stronger than anyone imagined.

Micron stated clearly at the FMS 2026 flash memory summit: AI is permanently reshaping the storage industry into a core component of system architecture, with memory’s share of total system value rising from 10% 30 years ago to nearly 50%.

Both DRAM and NAND are in a state of undersupply, and this will continue beyond 2027.

SK hynix itself forecasts full-year 2026 DRAM demand growth of 20% year over year and NAND demand growth of nearly 20%.

Almost all of the incremental demand is coming from data centers.

Third, the market’s focus is shifting.

Morgan Stanley believes the market’s focus for storage stocks is shifting from the price cycle to capital returns—share buybacks, free cash flow, and long-term supply agreements (LTAs) will become catalysts for the next wave of share-price gains.

But don’t celebrate too soon.

Morgan Stanley also warned that the pace of storage price increases is slowing.

The quarter-over-quarter increase in DRAM contract prices fell from 96% in the first quarter to an expected 16% in the third quarter.

NAND fell from 88% to an expected 13%.

By the fourth quarter of 2026, the industry will gradually enter the latter stage of the cycle.

At that point, the operating leverage provided by pricing will weaken, making further earnings beats increasingly difficult.

In addition, Apple is testing DRAM chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies for use in the iPhone and MacBook.

Although ChangXin’s capacity is already close to full utilization this year and it temporarily cannot take on new major international customers, the long-term threat of alternative suppliers is real.

When the prophet of “winter” begins taking off his down jacket—

What are you still waiting for?

Even the biggest short seller has turned bullish, which shows two things:

① The recent pullback is a deleveraging event, not a collapse in fundamentals.

② AI-driven storage demand is more resilient than anyone imagined.

On August 10, South Korea’s KOSPI index rose more than 2%, while SK hynix surged more than 4% at one point and Samsung Electronics rose more than 3% at one point.

The market is voting with its feet.

The script for storage stocks may be completely different from what you think.

Those who panic-sold in July have probably finished crying by now.

And those who understood the signal of “the short seller turning bullish”—

Are quietly entering the market.

Will you believe this “spokesperson for short sellers” turning bullish? Or do you think this is merely a “damage-control bullish call” after Morgan Stanley was kicked out of the underwriting syndicate?#非农爆雷降息预期逆转 #股票交易分享挑战 #苹果测试长鑫存储芯片 $SKHY $SAMSUNG $AAPL

Mask Bro went all-in on SK Hynix with 2x leverage
At the peak, his unrealized profit reached 100 million
He then turned around and lost 70 million
In just one month

The whale’s 500k SOL ($38 million) long position was fully filled via TWAP over a day and a half, at an average price of $76.37. Currently, it has $100k in unrealized profit, with the liquidation price at $61.

It’s a new week—let’s continue with #BlueVMutualFollows. I heard the new creator earnings require views from verified accounts only, so mutual follows seem even more important. If you follow me, I’ll definitely follow you back.

Any of our trading decisions must include a time limit in order to be valid decisions. Recently, I saw a view expressing the idea that, most likely in the next Bitcoin bull market cycle, due to MicroStrategy's strategic transformation, $MSTR

Imagine shorting $BTC here
You’re basically betting that everyone suddenly decides to sell
while liquidity above is sitting there waiting to get hunted
Everyone is waiting for the flush while BTC keeps refusing to give it
Bro.....what are you seeing that i’m not ?
One decent move up and these shorts could get smoked
Good luck btw

Nonfarm payrolls only made BTC “tough” for 5 minutes; CPI is the real “autopsy report”

8:30 p.m. on August 7.

U.S. July nonfarm payrolls—expected to increase by 80k, but actually fell by 23k net.

May and June data were revised down by a combined 103k.

This was the third-largest monthly decline in nonfarm payrolls since 2020.

According to the classic script, the transmission chain should look like this: employment collapses → the Fed dares not hike rates → rate-cut expectations heat up → the dollar weakens → risk assets surge.

Once the data came out, the market was indeed very honest. The probability of a September rate hike by the Fed plunged directly from 57% to 43.9%. The dollar plunged, gold rose in a straight line, and at one point gained more than 3% intraday.

What about Bitcoin?

It surged to $65,300—and then, nothing.

BTC quickly fell back to around $64,900 and moved sideways. Total market capitalization recovered to $2.21 trillion, up just 0.66% over 24 hours.

The bullish catalyst arrived, but the rally lasted only 5 minutes.

Why couldn’t it keep rising?

Three reasons have it stuck by the throat.

First, a single month’s data cannot lock in the direction.

Fed Chair Waller made it crystal clear—the long-term trend in economic data should be observed, rather than relying on a single month of inflation or employment data to make policy decisions [source text].

The Wall Street crowd can argue eight different directions from a single data point. Capital Economics said this was enough to prompt the Fed to reassess the labor market. Morgan Stanley said weak employment did ease rate-hike pressure—but added: “The Fed’s decision-making is not a single-variable function.”

If next week’s CPI comes in far above expectations, cooling in the labor market will not be enough to suppress calls for a rate hike internally.

One month of employment data is not enough to make the Fed pivot. Anyone who believes otherwise is being naive.

Second, the internal wounds have not healed.

Stablecoins continue to flow out—over the past month, USDT fell from $184.2 billion to $183.1 billion, while USDC fell from $73.28 billion to $72.15 billion, a combined decrease of $2.23 billion.

Liquidity in the market is contracting. This is a retreat of real money, not an emotional fluctuation.

Third, technical resistance is everywhere.

BTC encountered a strong resistance zone at $65,000–$65,600. This wall is firmly in place and has not yet been decisively broken.

The three reasons are piling up—it’s not that the market doesn’t want to rise; it simply can’t.

So what is the market waiting for?

CPI. August 12. That real nuclear bomb.

Economists surveyed by Reuters expect headline CPI in July to fall from 3.5% in June to 3.4% year over year, while core CPI is expected to drop from 2.6% to 2.5%.

But the key point is—expectations are just expectations; it only counts once the data is released.

Citigroup believes that if inflation softens for a second consecutive month, a September rate hike can basically be ruled out.

But Bank of America is watching core services inflation—core services prices are expected to rise 0.3% month over month in July, after remaining flat from May to June.

If core services inflation rebounds, a September rate hike will remain on the table.

These are two top investment banks, and their views are diametrically opposed.

Who do you believe?

Two scenarios, two paths.

Scenario one: CPI below expectations (≤3.4%)

Cooling inflation confirmed → probability of a September rate hike falls further → the dollar weakens → U.S. Treasury yields decline → BTC may break through the $65,000–$67k range.

This is the true start of the rate-cut trade—the dollar comes under pressure, and risk assets receive a new catalyst.

Scenario two: CPI above expectations (>3.4%)

Inflation remains sticky → rate-hike expectations rebound rapidly → the dollar strengthens → BTC may retest $62,000 or even $60,000.

CME FedWatch shows that the probability of the Fed hiking by at least 25 basis points by December is as high as 77.1%.

The rate-hike script is far from over.

A few final words of honesty—

Nonfarm payrolls gave the market an imagination of a “rate-hike pause.”

But CPI will determine whether that imagination becomes reality or turns into an illusion.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr’s outlook for BTC in August is restrained: there is a 55% probability that it will range between $57.7k and $67,000. A breakout requires the combined support of sustained ETF inflows, falling U.S. Treasury yields, and a weaker dollar.

Jiang Zhuoer put it more directly: current capital flows show no signs of a bull market starting. Bitcoin may rebound to around $68,000–$70k at most, followed by “a final drop after the shorts are wiped out.”

Don’t let the impulsive surge in nonfarm payrolls data cloud your judgment.

Those chasing longs above $65,000 should take a look at the liquidation map—if BTC falls below $61,658, the cumulative liquidation volume of long positions on major CEXs will be considerable.

We’ll know on Wednesday. #非农爆雷降息预期逆转 #股票交易分享挑战 #三星8亿部手机将内置稳定币 $BTC $ETH $SOL

The Japanese meme scene has been getting more and more absurd lately😂. People used to enjoy classic old memes like YAJU, 114514, and Beast Senpai, but now even cute culture like Chiikawa can be mixed in directly. $YJKW It’s basically forcing these two completely different forms of Japanese internet culture together: old memes + new memes, abstract + cute, which somehow makes it memorable. With this kind of meme, I don’t think the key has ever been “how sophisticated the story is,”

The “13-win streak whale” tagged by Hyperbot continued adding to its SPCX short as its unrealized loss expanded.
Over the past 2 hours, the address net-sold 14,781.96 SPCX through 282 trades, increasing its short position to 164,258.3 SPCX. The current position is worth approximately 22.52M official quote units, with an unrealized loss of approximately 2.38M, further expanding from 2.11M about 5 hours ago; the position uses 10x cross margin leverage.

bitcoin:native is starting to look stronger here.
Price action is improving and the bullish structure is becoming clearer.

SPCX at $136—would you get in?

First, the surface: the earnings report was explosive, but the cash burn was even more explosive.

Revenue hit $7.81 billion (+92%), AI revenue $2.56 billion (+247%), and cumulative newly signed cloud contracts reached $14.1 billion—but Capex was as high as $18.4 billion, with $15.8 billion allocated to AI infrastructure. The market dumped it first and then pulled it back up, while the stock came under pressure after hours. It violently rebounded from a double bottom at $107 to $136, moved above all key moving averages, and saw MACD turn positive. The trend has reversed, but it is overheated in the short term.

First: the earnings were “so good they exploded,” but the valuation was “so expensive it hurts,” and the market chose to forgive it.

Revenue came in at $7.81 billion, while Wall Street expected only slightly above $7 billion; EBITDA reached $3.54 billion, up 191% year over year; and net loss narrowed sharply to $541 million.

The AI segment was the most outrageous—revenue soared from $700 million to $2.56 billion, up 247% year over year. Starlink users doubled to 12 million, while enterprise and government orders kept pouring in.

So why did it fall after hours?

Capex was $18.4 billion, with $15.8 billion going into AI infrastructure. The market said: you are burning cash too aggressively.

Second: the lock-up expiration did not trigger a drop—instead, the stock rose. That is the strongest bullish signal.

Around August 6–7, the lock-up period expired, and the market had originally expected a flood of selling pressure.

What happened? It not only failed to fall, but instead rebounded strongly from around $120 to $136.

What does it mean when a stock should fall but does not? This is it.

Insiders did not sell, institutions did not sell, and retail investors waited for a “crash to buy the dip”—only to wait for nothing. Short covering plus the return of long positions pushed the price directly back above the IPO price.

Third: SpaceX is no longer the “rocket company” you once knew.

In the past, when you thought of SpaceX, you thought of rocket launches, colonizing Mars, and Elon Musk’s crazy dreams.

What about now?

Starlink: 12 million users, high-margin subscription revenue, and a flood of government and enterprise contracts. It is already the world’s largest satellite internet operator.

AI computing: $2.56 billion in quarterly revenue, $14.1 billion in contracts on hand, and deep cooperation with NVIDIA on orbital computing. It is already an important player in AI infrastructure.

Starship: Two successful V3 tests, higher payload capacity and lower costs, paving the way for a future trillion-dollar market.

The trinity: aerospace + satellite internet + AI computing.

The market is giving it a $1.7 trillion valuation not because it is betting on whether rockets can reach Mars. It is betting on the birth of an “Amazon of space”—the logistics layer (Starship) + the network layer (Starlink) + the computing layer (AI Cloud).

Bulls and bears—look for yourself

On one side:

Q2 revenue +92%, AI revenue +247%—one of the strongest earnings reports in history

The lock-up expiration did not trigger a drop but instead led to a rally; strength when it should have been weak is a sign of strength

Above all key moving averages, with the medium-term trend turning bullish

A deeply entrenched moat built on the trinity of aerospace + Starlink + AI

On the other side:

Capex of $18.4 billion, with an astonishing cash-burn rate

RSI above 70 and overbought; the short term is already overheated

$135–$140 is a dense IPO-cost-basis zone

High valuation + high volatility; a single macro negative could send it down 10%

Key levels

Upside targets: $140–$145 → $155–$160 → $180+

Downside floor: $130–$133 → $124–$126 (strong support) → $118–$120

Trading strategy

Short-term traders:

Do not chase at $136. Wait for a pullback to $130–$133 and cautiously go long, with a stop-loss below $124 and a target of $140–$145. If it breaks above $140 on strong volume and holds, go long with a stop-loss at $135 and a target of $155–$160.

Swing traders:

Wait for a pullback to $124–$126 (the MA200 area) before taking a substantial position. That is the real opportunity. Stop-loss at $118, with a target of $155–$180.

Long-term believers:

Build positions in batches in the $120–$130 range. SpaceX is the prototype of an “Amazon of space”—Starlink is AWS, Starship is FBA logistics, and AI computing is the next growth curve. The 2027 target is $200–$250, betting on the earnings inflection point and the realization of AI contracts.

SPCX is like Tesla in 2020—

99% of people thought its “valuation was too high and it was burning too much cash,” yet it rose from $80 to $400.

The day it breaks above $140, you will realize:

It was not that SPCX was too expensive; you kept waiting for the “perfect entry,” and ended up never getting on board.

What is your cost basis for SPCX?

At $136, would you get in? #非农爆雷降息预期逆转 #股票交易分享挑战 #周末行情分析 $BTC $SPCX $SPCX

A token needs a job.
Within Liberdus, $LIB is designed for network fees, message tolls, validator incentives, staking and future governance.
The strongest token utility is tied to activity the network genuinely needs.
@liberdus

BICO at $0.05—do you dare bet on this “dead coin revival”?

Look at the surface first: crazy FOMO, plastered all over exchanges.

On July 28, it hit an all-time low of 0.011, then surged to 0.089 within a week, up over 800%. 24-hour trading volume exploded from hundreds of thousands to hundreds of millions of dollars, while futures volume exceeded $1.1 billion—10 times the spot volume. EMA5/10/30 all spread upward, and MACD is strong!

Then what happened? On August 9, it plunged 41% from its high in a single day. Those who chased the rally are already trapped at the top.

First: this isn’t fundamentals-driven; it’s a setup that grinds shorts.

There is no major unlock pressure—BICO is fully circulating, and its unlocks ended back in 2025. No major partnerships, no revenue explosion.

BICO fell from its $8 ATH to 0.011 over a full four and a half years, losing 99.86% of its value. Then it rallied 800% in one week.

On-chain data shows that the top 100 wallets control the overwhelming majority of the supply—a rally only requires a few whales to work together, and a dump only requires them to click a mouse.

Second: funding rates are deeply negative, with shorts “paying to short.”

The futures market is showing an extreme signal—funding rates have remained deeply negative, reaching as low as -0.2658%, while short positions are piled up, yet the price is rising.

Shorts pay every day to hold positions, betting that the price will fall

But the price keeps rising instead of falling—the more shorts lose, the more they hold on

This is a classic “short squeeze” structure.

But low liquidity also makes this structure extremely fragile. Once longs take profits and shorts strike back, the price can plummet in free fall—the 41% plunge today is proof.

Third: the account abstraction narrative is attractive, but BICO is not the only player.

Biconomy is building ERC-4337 account abstraction infrastructure—gasless transactions, batch transactions, and cross-chain orchestration. The technical direction is sound. It has deployed over 4.6 million smart accounts and processed over $1.1 billion in transaction volume, with a market share of around 50%.

In July, it launched the Biconomy SDK, featuring a Web2 login experience and a gasless transaction module. It is also working with Rhinestone to launch a smart account module marketplace called Module Store.

When the AA narrative was hottest in 2021, BICO’s market cap surged to several billion. Now? After falling 99%, it has only rebounded to a market cap of tens of millions.

Bulls vs. bears—see for yourself

On one side:

A violent rebound of over 600% from 0.011, with astonishing trend strength

Deeply negative funding rates, with plenty of short-squeeze fuel

Fully circulating supply, with no major unlock pressure

The AA narrative could reignite as the Ethereum ecosystem recovers

On the other side:

The top 100 wallets have extremely high control, and whales can dump at any time

Overbought RSI + heavy volume at the highs with stagnant price action, indicating short-term overheating

ATH of $8, and still down 99% currently—the overhead supply from trapped positions is massive

Futures volume is 10x+ spot volume, creating extremely high leverage risk

Key levels

Upside resistance: 0.055 → 0.06-0.062 → 0.065-0.067 → 0.075

Downside support: 0.045 → 0.038-0.040 (deeper retracement zone)

Trading strategy

Aggressive short-term trading:

If a pullback to 0.045-0.048 stabilizes, cautiously open a small long position, stop-loss below 0.040, first target 0.055-0.06, second target 0.065-0.07.

Shorting/taking profits at the top:

If it surges to 0.055-0.06 and encounters resistance with declining volume, cautiously open a small short position, stop-loss above 0.065, target 0.045-0.048.

For existing holders:

Scale out above 0.055; don’t get greedy for the final 10%. Set a trailing stop-loss at 0.045 to protect profits.

BICO now looks just like ICP in 2021—

It fell from 400+ to 40, rebounded to 100 while everyone shouted “the bull market is back,” then dropped to 3.

On the day 0.065 breaks through, 99% of people will chase in.

And then what?

Remember: those who truly make big money always buy when nobody cares and sell when the crowd is roaring.

Right now, is nobody paying attention, or is the crowd roaring? You decide.

Would you chase BICO at this level?

At $0.05, do you dare bet on this “dead coin revival”?#非农爆雷降息预期逆转 #股票交易分享挑战 #周末行情分析 $BTC $ETH $BICO

Today is Sunday. Let’s review this post and see how it performs next week.
$STRC has reached 95, and $MSTR traded sideways for a month, forming a bottom pattern.

$OpenAI Altman wrote “How to Be Successful”—try these 13 methods:
1. Make yourself grow through compounding
Do things that can scale exponentially. Don’t fixate on short-term gains; go after major projects whose success would make everything else seem insignificant.
2. Be confident to the point of overconfidence
Believe in yourself and dare to go against the majority—that’s how you create real value. Listen to criticism, but stand your ground when it matters.
3. Learn to think independently
Start from first principles and come up with your own ideas. Take more risks, fail more, and learn more.
4. Turn sales into a superpower
Knowing how to sell is crucial. Persuade others in the most direct and sincere way. Write clearly and speak plainly.
5. Make taking risks easier
Take more bets when you’re young; the returns are often better than expected. Keep your life flexible so you can make bigger bets later.
6. Focus relentlessly
Only do what truly matters and cut out every distraction. Focus on the few most important things and get them done at breakneck speed.
7. Work extremely hard
Hard work compounds, and talent alone won’t make you world-class. Be highly efficient, but don’t spare yourself the sweat.
8. Be a little bolder
Take on projects that are big, ambitious, and audacious. Opportunities are often hidden where others don’t dare to go. Follow your curiosity and do what excites you.
9. Max out your willpower
Keep pushing forward, no matter how difficult things get. Stay optimistic and persist—luck will gradually shift to your side.
10. Make it hard for others to compete with you
Build unique skills, a personal brand, or a network that others can’t copy. Do things differently from everyone else, and you’ll win.
11. Build a strong network
Spend more time with exceptional people and proactively help others; your relationships will pay you back later. Be generous and reliable.
12. If you want to get rich, own things
Hold appreciating equity or assets, such as shares in a company. Build and strengthen the things people truly want.
13. Let your motivation come from within
Don’t live for other people’s opinions. True drive must come from within—take risks guided by your own convictions and passions.

BTC at $65,000—is the longer the sideways movement lasts, the more anxious you get?

Look at the surface first: sideways volatility, with no clear direction.

BTC has been moving back and forth within the $62k-$66k range for three full weeks, repeatedly testing $65,000. It is up 0.8% for the week and down 0.3% for the month, as if nailed to the wall. The candlesticks tell you that trading volume continues to shrink and the market is waiting for a direction.

First: Institutions are buying, whales are accumulating, and you are waiting for a crash?

Spot ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $750 million-$850 million this week—the strongest week since April. BlackRock's IBIT has recorded net inflows for multiple consecutive days, with institutions aggressively accumulating while prices move sideways.

At the same time, addresses holding 10-10,000 BTC have continued to net accumulate since late July, moving in tandem with ETF inflows.

Every time prices move sideways while institutions continue buying, it is a precursor to a sharp rally.

Second: There was an “unexpected positive development” on the macro front.

July nonfarm employment unexpectedly fell by 23k, while an increase of 80k was expected. The previous figure was also revised downward.

The labor market is clearly slowing

The Fed has lost its confidence in keeping rates “higher for longer”

Short-term rate-hike expectations have weakened

The shackles on risk assets have loosened somewhat

The Fed had just kept rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in late July, but after the employment data was released, market expectations for September have already begun to shift.

The worst moment for the macro environment may already have passed.

Third: Technically, it has reached a point where a direction must be chosen.

On the 4-hour chart, it is in the middle-to-upper part of the Bollinger Bands, while overall trading volume remains low. Daily RSI is around 50-55, neutral; MACD shows a weak golden cross or is moving sideways, with insufficient momentum.

But take note—the chart has already formed the beginnings of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. If it breaks above the $66,000 neckline with increased volume, the target points to around $75,000.

Bulls and bears have been locked in this position for three weeks. To the upside, a break above $66,000 would directly open up room for further gains; to the downside, a break below $64,000 would put $62,200 to the test.

Fourth: The BIP-110 controversy—“a false alarm” or “early risk removal”?

A controversial soft-fork attempt emerged on the Bitcoin network, but miner support was extremely low and it quickly stalled, causing no substantive split.

The CLARITY Act vote has been postponed to September, meaning short-term regulatory upside has failed to materialize—but there is no downside either

Bulls versus bears—you decide

On one side:

ETF net inflows of $800 million in one week, the strongest since April

Whale addresses continuing to accumulate, with institutional buying providing support

The nonfarm payroll shock weakened rate-hike expectations and eased macro pressure

The Fear and Greed Index is at 31; sentiment is weak but prices are not falling—negative factors are losing their impact

The beginnings of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, with a $75,000 target upon breaking $66,000

On the other side:

$65,000 has not been breached for three weeks, with dense resistance overhead

Short-term holders' cost basis is around $67,500, creating potential selling pressure

The CLARITY Act has been delayed, with no short-term regulatory upside

If the dollar strengthens, risk assets will come under pressure

Key levels

Upside targets: $66,000-$67,000 (neckline + key resistance) → $70,000 → $75,000+

Downside defenses: $64,000-$64,200 → $62,200-$62,500 → $57,000-$58,000

Trading strategies

Short-term traders:

If a pullback to $64,200-$64,500 stabilizes, cautiously open a small long position, with a stop-loss at $63,500 and a target of $65,500-$66,000. Add to longs and chase the breakout if $66,000 is breached on increased volume, with a target of $70,000-$75,000.

Swing traders:

Wait for a daily close to hold above $66,000 before entering on the right side, with a target of $70,000-$75,000. If $64,000 is decisively broken and the decline accelerates, stay on the sidelines and wait until $62,200 before reconsidering.

Long-term believers:

Make staggered investments below $64,000. With ETFs continuing to see inflows, whales accumulating, and the post-halving cycle in play, the target for the end of 2026 is $80,000-$100,000.

BTC now looks like the sideways accumulation phase in the summer of 2024—

99% of people thought “it will keep falling,” but it went straight from $50k to $100k in Q4.

The day $66,000 breaks, you will realize:

It was not that BTC was weak—it was that you were shaken out every time during the sideways bottoming process.

What is your BTC cost basis?

At $65,000, are you choosing to wait for a breakout or a pullback?#非农爆雷降息预期逆转 #股票交易分享挑战 #周末行情分析 $BTC $TUT $ETH

10 Truths About Trading:
1. Don’t want to keep getting slapped around by the market? The simplest way: don’t trade.
2. The market is always right. The more determined you are to beat the market, the more likely you are to hold onto a position all the way down, only to suffer ever-greater losses.
3. Excellent traders have achieved a state of unity between themselves and the natural world. When placing an order, thoughts like “Should I take the trade? What if I’m wrong? Maybe I should wait a little longer?” don’t cross their minds. They simply execute—cleanly, decisively, and without hesitation. It’s like a fish hunting in water, completely unaware of any barrier between itself and the water.
4. The core of good trading comes down to three words: stop-loss, stop-loss, and stop-loss again.
5. The essence of risk control: Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and only take positions where a win would feel meaningful. If neither condition is met, don’t trade.
6. No matter how many times you lose, how often you get slapped in the face, or how foolish others call you, grit your teeth and continue to follow your method strictly without giving up halfway. Believe deep down that as long as you keep doing the right thing, success will come sooner or later.
7. When a trend is rising or falling, trading with it can make you money. But no trend lasts forever; one day, it will come to an end. Once it suddenly turns, if you stubbornly cling to your original direction, it will throw you off and make you lose big.
8. Want to understand the market? Just go to the beach and watch the waves. If you try to push a wave back when it comes, you won’t be able to—you can only go with it.
9. Many people lose money not because their system is ineffective, but because the system doesn’t suit them. For example, if you are naturally prone to anxiety but use a system that requires enduring large drawdowns, your mindset will break down. Or if you like trading frequently but use an ultra-long-term system, you won’t be able to sit still.
10. Don’t predict the future. Only react to what has already happened. For example, once the price has started rising and the trend has formed, go long with it. As soon as the trend turns and the price starts deteriorating, immediately admit you were wrong and exit. When it starts looking good again, simply re-enter. Your losses remain controllable.