BTC at $65,000—is the longer the sideways movement lasts, the more anxious you get?
Look at the surface first: sideways volatility, with no clear direction.
BTC has been moving back and forth within the $62k-$66k range for three full weeks, repeatedly testing $65,000. It is up 0.8% for the week and down 0.3% for the month, as if nailed to the wall. The candlesticks tell you that trading volume continues to shrink and the market is waiting for a direction.
First: Institutions are buying, whales are accumulating, and you are waiting for a crash?
Spot ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $750 million-$850 million this week—the strongest week since April. BlackRock's IBIT has recorded net inflows for multiple consecutive days, with institutions aggressively accumulating while prices move sideways.
At the same time, addresses holding 10-10,000 BTC have continued to net accumulate since late July, moving in tandem with ETF inflows.
Every time prices move sideways while institutions continue buying, it is a precursor to a sharp rally.
Second: There was an “unexpected positive development” on the macro front.
July nonfarm employment unexpectedly fell by 23k, while an increase of 80k was expected. The previous figure was also revised downward.
The labor market is clearly slowing
The Fed has lost its confidence in keeping rates “higher for longer”
Short-term rate-hike expectations have weakened
The shackles on risk assets have loosened somewhat
The Fed had just kept rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in late July, but after the employment data was released, market expectations for September have already begun to shift.
The worst moment for the macro environment may already have passed.
Third: Technically, it has reached a point where a direction must be chosen.
On the 4-hour chart, it is in the middle-to-upper part of the Bollinger Bands, while overall trading volume remains low. Daily RSI is around 50-55, neutral; MACD shows a weak golden cross or is moving sideways, with insufficient momentum.
But take note—the chart has already formed the beginnings of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. If it breaks above the $66,000 neckline with increased volume, the target points to around $75,000.
Bulls and bears have been locked in this position for three weeks. To the upside, a break above $66,000 would directly open up room for further gains; to the downside, a break below $64,000 would put $62,200 to the test.
Fourth: The BIP-110 controversy—“a false alarm” or “early risk removal”?
A controversial soft-fork attempt emerged on the Bitcoin network, but miner support was extremely low and it quickly stalled, causing no substantive split.
The CLARITY Act vote has been postponed to September, meaning short-term regulatory upside has failed to materialize—but there is no downside either
Bulls versus bears—you decide
On one side:
ETF net inflows of $800 million in one week, the strongest since April
Whale addresses continuing to accumulate, with institutional buying providing support
The nonfarm payroll shock weakened rate-hike expectations and eased macro pressure
The Fear and Greed Index is at 31; sentiment is weak but prices are not falling—negative factors are losing their impact
The beginnings of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, with a $75,000 target upon breaking $66,000
On the other side:
$65,000 has not been breached for three weeks, with dense resistance overhead
Short-term holders' cost basis is around $67,500, creating potential selling pressure
The CLARITY Act has been delayed, with no short-term regulatory upside
If the dollar strengthens, risk assets will come under pressure
Key levels
Upside targets: $66,000-$67,000 (neckline + key resistance) → $70,000 → $75,000+
Downside defenses: $64,000-$64,200 → $62,200-$62,500 → $57,000-$58,000
Trading strategies
Short-term traders:
If a pullback to $64,200-$64,500 stabilizes, cautiously open a small long position, with a stop-loss at $63,500 and a target of $65,500-$66,000. Add to longs and chase the breakout if $66,000 is breached on increased volume, with a target of $70,000-$75,000.
Swing traders:
Wait for a daily close to hold above $66,000 before entering on the right side, with a target of $70,000-$75,000. If $64,000 is decisively broken and the decline accelerates, stay on the sidelines and wait until $62,200 before reconsidering.
Long-term believers:
Make staggered investments below $64,000. With ETFs continuing to see inflows, whales accumulating, and the post-halving cycle in play, the target for the end of 2026 is $80,000-$100,000.
BTC now looks like the sideways accumulation phase in the summer of 2024—
99% of people thought “it will keep falling,” but it went straight from $50k to $100k in Q4.
The day $66,000 breaks, you will realize:
It was not that BTC was weak—it was that you were shaken out every time during the sideways bottoming process.
What is your BTC cost basis?
At $65,000, are you choosing to wait for a breakout or a pullback?#非农爆雷降息预期逆转 #股票交易分享挑战 #周末行情分析 $BTC $TUT $ETH
Look at the surface first: sideways volatility, with no clear direction.
BTC has been moving back and forth within the $62k-$66k range for three full weeks, repeatedly testing $65,000. It is up 0.8% for the week and down 0.3% for the month, as if nailed to the wall. The candlesticks tell you that trading volume continues to shrink and the market is waiting for a direction.
First: Institutions are buying, whales are accumulating, and you are waiting for a crash?
Spot ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $750 million-$850 million this week—the strongest week since April. BlackRock's IBIT has recorded net inflows for multiple consecutive days, with institutions aggressively accumulating while prices move sideways.
At the same time, addresses holding 10-10,000 BTC have continued to net accumulate since late July, moving in tandem with ETF inflows.
Every time prices move sideways while institutions continue buying, it is a precursor to a sharp rally.
Second: There was an “unexpected positive development” on the macro front.
July nonfarm employment unexpectedly fell by 23k, while an increase of 80k was expected. The previous figure was also revised downward.
The labor market is clearly slowing
The Fed has lost its confidence in keeping rates “higher for longer”
Short-term rate-hike expectations have weakened
The shackles on risk assets have loosened somewhat
The Fed had just kept rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in late July, but after the employment data was released, market expectations for September have already begun to shift.
The worst moment for the macro environment may already have passed.
Third: Technically, it has reached a point where a direction must be chosen.
On the 4-hour chart, it is in the middle-to-upper part of the Bollinger Bands, while overall trading volume remains low. Daily RSI is around 50-55, neutral; MACD shows a weak golden cross or is moving sideways, with insufficient momentum.
But take note—the chart has already formed the beginnings of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. If it breaks above the $66,000 neckline with increased volume, the target points to around $75,000.
Bulls and bears have been locked in this position for three weeks. To the upside, a break above $66,000 would directly open up room for further gains; to the downside, a break below $64,000 would put $62,200 to the test.
Fourth: The BIP-110 controversy—“a false alarm” or “early risk removal”?
A controversial soft-fork attempt emerged on the Bitcoin network, but miner support was extremely low and it quickly stalled, causing no substantive split.
The CLARITY Act vote has been postponed to September, meaning short-term regulatory upside has failed to materialize—but there is no downside either
Bulls versus bears—you decide
On one side:
ETF net inflows of $800 million in one week, the strongest since April
Whale addresses continuing to accumulate, with institutional buying providing support
The nonfarm payroll shock weakened rate-hike expectations and eased macro pressure
The Fear and Greed Index is at 31; sentiment is weak but prices are not falling—negative factors are losing their impact
The beginnings of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, with a $75,000 target upon breaking $66,000
On the other side:
$65,000 has not been breached for three weeks, with dense resistance overhead
Short-term holders' cost basis is around $67,500, creating potential selling pressure
The CLARITY Act has been delayed, with no short-term regulatory upside
If the dollar strengthens, risk assets will come under pressure
Key levels
Upside targets: $66,000-$67,000 (neckline + key resistance) → $70,000 → $75,000+
Downside defenses: $64,000-$64,200 → $62,200-$62,500 → $57,000-$58,000
Trading strategies
Short-term traders:
If a pullback to $64,200-$64,500 stabilizes, cautiously open a small long position, with a stop-loss at $63,500 and a target of $65,500-$66,000. Add to longs and chase the breakout if $66,000 is breached on increased volume, with a target of $70,000-$75,000.
Swing traders:
Wait for a daily close to hold above $66,000 before entering on the right side, with a target of $70,000-$75,000. If $64,000 is decisively broken and the decline accelerates, stay on the sidelines and wait until $62,200 before reconsidering.
Long-term believers:
Make staggered investments below $64,000. With ETFs continuing to see inflows, whales accumulating, and the post-halving cycle in play, the target for the end of 2026 is $80,000-$100,000.
BTC now looks like the sideways accumulation phase in the summer of 2024—
99% of people thought “it will keep falling,” but it went straight from $50k to $100k in Q4.
The day $66,000 breaks, you will realize:
It was not that BTC was weak—it was that you were shaken out every time during the sideways bottoming process.
What is your BTC cost basis?
At $65,000, are you choosing to wait for a breakout or a pullback?#非农爆雷降息预期逆转 #股票交易分享挑战 #周末行情分析 $BTC $TUT $ETH
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