Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

The 18 Most Important Things in Investing:

1. The most important thing is to understand that consistently beating the market over the long term is extremely difficult.
2. The most important investment decisions should be based on value, not price.
3. The most important thing is not to buy good things, but to buy things cheaply.
4. The most important thing is not price fluctuations, but that you could permanently lose your principal and never get it back.
5. The greatest risk is not a pessimistic, panic-stricken market, but a market filled with optimism, where everyone believes there is little risk.
6. The most important thing is not to pursue high risk and high returns, but low risk and high returns.
7. The most important thing is not the trend. Trends do not last; they are ultimately reversed by cycles.
8. The most important time is not when market sentiment is at a midpoint, but when sentiment reaches an extreme and is about to reverse.
9. The most important thing is not to follow the trend, but to go against it.
10. The most important thing is not merely to think about contrarian investing, but to practice it.
11. The most important thing is not price or value, but the relative risk-to-reward ratio—that is, the margin of safety.
12. The most important thing is not to actively seek opportunities, but to patiently wait for opportunities to come to you.
13. The most important thing is not to predict the future, but to prepare for it.
14. The most important thing is not to focus on the future, but on the present.
15. The most important thing is to recognize that short-term performance depends on luck, while long-term performance depends on skill.
16. The most important thing is not offense, but defense.
17. The most important thing is not to pursue great success, but to avoid major mistakes.
18. The most important thing is not to outperform the market in a bull market, but to outperform it in a bear market.

$ETH has a funny habit of making the same chart twice.
First setup: the rising trendline broke and $ETH followed with a 31% drawdown.
Now we have another rising trendline coming off the lows.
It’s holding for now.
Break it, and the $1,350–$1,400 area gets interesting if history rhymes.
Until then, no need to panic or celebrate.
Just watching the line.
$ETH
#ETHEREUM

Would you dare to buy the dip on ZEC at $490?

Look at the surface first: sideways action at high levels, with retail investors hesitating to make a move.

After violently rebounding from its late-2025 low, it rose over 1,200% in a year, surged to 530 after the Ironwood upgrade was activated in late July, then pulled back to consolidate in the 480-500 range. 24-hour volatility is nearly zero, trading volume is shrinking, the Bollinger Bands have narrowed to an extreme, and MACD is negative but not extreme. A major move is imminent.

First: the vulnerability that nearly killed ZEC has been completely sealed.

In May-June, the Orchard vulnerability was exposed, sending ZEC crashing from 680 to 250 as the entire market cried, “Privacy coins are going to zero.” But in late July, the Ironwood upgrade (NU6.3) was officially activated, successfully sealing the old Orchard pool, with approximately $1.7 billion in assets entering a one-way transfer mechanism. Migration to the new shielded pool has surpassed 2 million ZEC, making it the largest shielded pool.

After the vulnerability was fixed, ZEC rebounded by over 50%.

Second: supply is being “locked up,” but you still haven’t realized it.

ZEC has a total supply of 21 million, the same as BTC. Approximately 16.88 million are circulating, representing 80% of the issued supply, while the shielded supply ratio has risen to 30-35%. Grayscale’s trust holdings, supply locked through protocol mechanisms, and Cypherpunk Technologies’ holdings of approximately 295k ZEC, or about 1.75% of the circulating supply, are all contributing to this, with a target of reaching 5%.

The annual inflation rate is approximately 3.9%, but the supply-tightening effect from the rising shielded-supply ratio is even stronger.

The ZEC/BTC ratio has outperformed BTC by approximately 17x over the past 10 months.

Third: the technicals have reached a point where they must show their hand.

The daily chart has pulled back from 530 and is currently moving sideways in the narrow 480-500 range, forming a triangle-like consolidation before breaking below the short-term uptrend line. The short-term structure is weak, but the weekly and monthly charts remain bullish.

The Bollinger Bands have narrowed to an extreme, and volatility will inevitably expand after compression. A high-volume move above and sustained hold over 500 could trigger short covering toward 520-550; a break below 480 would open the way to 450 or even 420.

Bulls versus bears—you decide.

On one side:

The Ironwood upgrade successfully fixed the vulnerability, resolving the trust crisis.

Migration to the shielded pool has surpassed 2 million ZEC, with supply continuing to tighten.

Cypherpunk and institutions continue accumulating, targeting 5% holdings.

The weekly and monthly charts remain bullish, and the one-year 1,200% uptrend remains intact.

On the other side:

A pullback from 530, with the short-term uptrend line broken.

Regulatory uncertainty remains, with the EU’s MiCA taking effect in 2027.

The macro environment remains tight, the Fed is hawkish, and liquidity is suppressing risk assets.

500 has been rejected three times, creating enormous psychological pressure.

Key levels

Upside resistance: 500 (psychological level) → 510-520 → 550+

Downside support: 485 → 480 (strong support) → 470-460 → 420

Trading strategy

Short-term traders:

On a high-volume breakout above 500 and a sustained hold on the 4H chart, go long for a target of 520-550, with a stop-loss below 490. On a high-volume break below 480, go short for a target of 450-420, with a stop-loss at 495.

Swing traders:

Build long positions in batches near the strong support around 480-485, with a stop-loss at 460-470, a first target of 520-550, and a second target above 600. Add to positions on a breakout above 500, and reduce positions to lock in profits if support breaks.

Long-term believers:

Blindly dollar-cost average below 480. Zcash is the only privacy coin that has managed to rise 1,200% after enduring a vulnerability crisis, proving the resilience of its team and the faith of its community.

ZEC’s current state looks strikingly similar to Bitcoin’s before its breakout in 2023—

99% of people thought, “Privacy coins can’t survive,” and it ended up rising 12x in a year.

On the day 500 breaks, you’ll realize:

It wasn’t that ZEC was incapable—it’s that you always waited until it reached 800 before daring to chase. #Gate7月增长Top1 #比特币变盘信号出现 #我的七夕交易分享 $BTC $ETH $ZEC

Investing Is a Small Matter: 99% of People Choose the Wrong Beach from the Very First Step, While the Remaining 1% Are Secretly Picking Up the Biggest Shells!

1. Investing Is a Shell-Finding Game

Investing is a very difficult endeavor, like looking for shells on a beach. You have to painstakingly turn over one shell after another, but most of the time, you feel that the shells you uncover are not beautiful enough or worth collecting. The only thing you can do is keep looking under the next shell. Therefore, there are no shortcuts in investing. To invest well, you must be diligent.

In addition, if we want to invest well and find shells that are both large and beautiful, we must go to places that are not easy for others to reach. On beaches that are easy to access and crowded with people, the beautiful shells have already been picked up. Only in places that are difficult to reach and sparsely populated do we have a chance to find large, beautiful shells.

2. Investing Is a Blind Men and the Elephant and Jigsaw Puzzle Game

Investing means making decisions with incomplete information, so it is much like the blind men and the elephant and a jigsaw puzzle game.

In the blind men and the elephant story and in a jigsaw puzzle game, the biggest taboo is generalizing from a partial view. The person who touches the elephant’s tusk says it looks like a giant radish; the person who touches the elephant’s ear says it looks like a dustpan; the person who touches the elephant’s foot says it looks like a pillar; and the person who touches the elephant’s tail says it looks like a rope. Based on the part we understand, we can reach a conclusion that is partially correct, but partial correctness does not equal correctness as a whole.

Therefore, when investing, we must avoid mistaking a glimpse for the whole picture and avoid making investment decisions directly from fragmentary information. Complete and thorough research is essential.

3. Make Decisions with a High Degree of Predictability

Value investing narrows the range of variables that need to be predicted to a single company, selecting only leading companies with moats. This greatly reduces the difficulty of prediction and improves the reliability of decision-making.

4. Fuzzy Correctness and Precise Error

In investing, pursuing fuzzy correctness is always far more important than pursuing precise error.

Many times, people become trapped in a vortex of excessive attention to details, such as whether a company’s earnings for a particular quarter met expectations, while overlooking information at a higher level, such as the company’s long-term competitiveness and room for growth.

5. The Nature of the Capital Determines the Investment Strategy

Long investment horizon: Focus on long-term industry trends, a company’s long-term competitiveness, and its room for growth, while ignoring short-term stock price fluctuations.

Large capital base: Diversify investments.

Retail investors: Favor trend investing and short-term speculation.

6. The Margin of Safety Is Extremely Important in Investing

The gap between a stock’s intrinsic value and its market price is the margin of safety. Value investors take advantage of market irrationality and mispricing by buying an asset when its price is below its potential value, thereby gaining a margin of safety. Because the purchase price is low enough, the probability of loss is also lower.

The margin of safety is not provided solely by a low price. More often, it comes from the company’s growth and its moat. Even if a company with a moat does not appear particularly “cheap” in the short term, over the long term, its “moat” can provide the company with a tremendous margin of safety.

7. Leverage Is the Great Enemy of Value Investing

If time is the friend of value investing, leverage is absolutely its great enemy. Irrational stock price fluctuations can cause investors to miss opportunities.

8. Distinguish Ability from Luck

High returns over the short term do not prove that one’s ability is strong. Stable returns over the long term are the key indicator of ability. Without at least 5 years of performance to prove it, you cannot assume that your ability is particularly strong.

9. The Most Expensive Phrase in Investing — “This Time Is Different!”

The stock market cannot escape cycles. Behind stock price fluctuations are economic cycles, earnings cycles, and cycles in human nature. Ultimately, stock prices are determined by fundamentals and valuation. Blindly believing that this time is different will lead to fear and frenzy. The stock market will always have cycles and can never escape the fundamental laws of value.

10. Don’t Drive While Looking in the Rearview Mirror, Stay Away from Crowded Places, and Don’t Touch Stocks You Don’t Understand

Successful investors always look to the future, not in the rearview mirror.

Stay away from crowded places, where stampedes are likely to occur.

Don’t touch what you don’t understand. Only make money within your circle of competence, on opportunities you can understand and keep up with.

OKX Predictions are back, with a wider range of predictable categories this time!

ETH at $1,880—have you been shaken out?

Look at the surface first: it has flatlined, and retail traders are nearly losing their minds.

It has fallen less than 2% over the past week, barely moved over the past month, and is still down 36% YTD. The price is being pinned tightly within the $1,876–$1,886 range, MACD has flattened into a straight line, and trading volume has shrunk as if trading had been halted.

The symmetrical triangle is converging toward its endpoint, with the price stuck near $1,880 at the 20/50 EMA crossover. The longer the compression lasts, the more violent the breakout.

First: on-chain activity has surged 75%, but the price has not moved.

From August 8 to August 15, ETH's daily new addresses jumped from 121k to 213k, an increase of 90k in one week, or 75%.

Historically, signals like this have often preceded price moves. Similar data anomalies appeared before DeFi Summer in 2020 and the ETF speculation in 2023. The staking ratio has surged to a record-level 34%, with supply tightly locked up.

Second: staking ETFs have launched, but retail traders have not realized it yet.

BlackRock's staking-based ETH product has launched and begun distributing yield, while Fidelity is also advancing its application for an Ethereum ETF with nearly all assets staked. After five consecutive weeks of net ETF inflows, last week's outflow of only several million dollars was merely normal profit-taking.

Institutions buying ETH can capture both price appreciation and interest (staking yield)

This is more attractive than a pure BTC ETF

Third: technically, the market has reached a critical point where it must choose a direction.

The daily converging triangle has reached its endpoint, with the price compressed within the $1,860–$1,920 range. All timeframes show that a direction is about to be chosen.

If it breaks above $1,920 on strong volume and confirms with a close, the target points directly to $2,000–$2,100

If it breaks below $1,860 on strong volume and confirms, it could retest $1,800 or even $1,750

Look at the battle between the bulls and bears yourself

On one side:

Daily new addresses surged 75% in one week, accelerating network growth

The staking rate hit a record 34%, with supply continuing to be locked up

BlackRock's staking ETF has launched, providing institutions with an endless supply of ammunition

Compression has reached an extreme, and a trend change is imminent

On the other side:

Almost zero volatility over 24 hours, with trading volume drying up

ETH/BTC remains weak and unable to strengthen independently

ETF inflow momentum has temporarily stalled

Three failed attempts to break above $1,920 have created enormous psychological pressure

Key levels

Resistance above: $1,900–$1,920 → $1,930–$1,960 → $2,000

Support below: $1,850–$1,860 (strong support) → $1,800 → $1,750–$1,700

Trading strategy

Short-term traders:

Try a small long position near $1,860, with a stop-loss at $1,830 and a target of $1,900–$1,920. Try a small short position near $1,920, with a stop-loss at $1,950 and a target of $1,860. In a range-bound market, sell high and buy low.

Swing traders:

Wait for a high-volume breakout and sustained hold above $1,920 before going long, targeting $2,000–$2,100; go short after a high-volume break below $1,860, targeting $1,800–$1,750.

Long-term believers:

Blindly DCA below $1,800. With staking yields, institutional ETFs, and upgrade expectations, the target is $2,500–$3,000 by the end of 2026.

ETH right now is like a spring compressed to its limit—

Do you think it will bounce downward or explode upward?

The day $1,920 breaks, you will realize:

It was not that ETH was incapable—it was that you were shaken out every time before the move began.

At what price were you shaken out?

After moving sideways for so long around $1,880, where do you think it goes next#GateCard三重升级 #比特币变盘信号出现 #我的七夕交易分享 $BTC $ETH $GT

AI Rally Over? Wall Street Demigod Stanley Druckenmiller Completely Liquidates Broadcom and Micron, Sending a Strong Top-Exit Signal!

Reduced Holdings
1. Alcoa $AA
sharply reduced its position near the high, achieving an almost perfect exit at the top. The signal that cyclical stocks have peaked is clear, allowing profits to be locked in promptly.
2. Broadcom $AVGO
completely liquidated its position in the AI chip hardware leader, taking profits at the high and avoiding the risk of excessive valuation.
3. Micron Technology $MU
fully exited the memory sector, realizing profits after the boom and shifting toward other areas.
4. Intel $INTC
liquidated its position in the traditional semiconductor giant, exiting decisively amid both performance and competitive pressures.
5. Celestica $CLS
exited AI server-related hardware, realizing profits at the high.
6. Lumentum $LITE
liquidated its position in optical module stocks, taking profits across the AI hardware chain.
Increased Holdings
7. Natera $NTRA
continued to maintain a heavy position in its largest holding and added slightly. As a leader in genetic testing, its earnings are surging and its long-term growth visibility is high.
8. Amazon $AMZN
increased its holdings by more than 10 times and added call options. Driven by both e-commerce and cloud computing, its fundamentals are solid and highly attractive.
9. Insmed $INSM
continued adding to its position and buying call options. As a rare biotechnology opportunity, it has outstanding pipeline potential.
10. Riot Platforms $RIOT
initiated a new position in a crypto mining company, betting on Bitcoin mining and the advantages of long-term power contracts.
11. Bitdeer $BTDR
aggressively initiated a new position of more than 4 million shares, making it a core holding positioned around mining infrastructure and power bottlenecks.
12. Hut 8 $HUT
initiated a new position in a mining company, anticipating the long-term benefits of cryptocurrency demand for electricity.
13. Iris Energy $IREN
initiated a new position in clean-energy mining, with clear advantages in power costs.
14. Equinix $EQIX
initiated a new position in the data center giant, positioned to capture the shift in power demand from AI and crypto.
15. D.R. Horton $DHI
initiated a new position in a mainstream homebuilder. As an interest-rate-sensitive company, it is betting on opportunities at the bottom of the real estate cycle.
16. UWM Holdings $UWMC
initiated a new position in mortgage lending, which has significant business upside in a favorable interest-rate environment.
17. Carvana $CVNA
initiated a new position in used-car retail, benefiting from a consumer recovery amid expectations of lower interest rates.
18. Delta Air Lines $DAL
initiated a new position in the airline leader, with travel demand recovering and cash flow improving significantly as an interest-rate-sensitive business.
19. United Airlines $UAL
nearly tripled its position, highlighting the strong opportunity for an airline-cycle reversal.
20. Google $GOOGL
initiated a new position in the search and AI giant, a high-conviction quality holding to buy on dips.
21. Advanced Micro Devices $AMD
initiated a new position, offering both AI chip substitution potential and growth.
22. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company $TSM
continued adding to its position in the foundry leader, whose core upstream competitiveness is strong.
23. STMicroelectronics $STM
continued adding to its position, positioning for the semiconductor cycle.
This legendary trader is no longer chasing hardware, instead betting on emerging markets such as power-intensive mining, data centers, and biotechnology.

$BTC is still sitting around $63K.

But the bigger issue isn't the price.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded around $385M in weekly outflows, while BTC continues to struggle to reclaim $64K.

Then you have the CLARITY Act pushed into September and the SEC delaying its crypto rules meeting.

Right now, there isn't much forcing buyers to chase higher.

$64K remains the level I want to see reclaimed.

Until then, patience.

#GateLaunchpool141MDOS
#GateTop1GrowthInJuly

$BTC is still sitting around $63K.
But the bigger issue isn't the price.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded around $385M in weekly outflows, while BTC continues to struggle to reclaim $64K.
Then you have the CLARITY Act pushed into September and the SEC delaying its crypto rules meeting.
Right now, there isn't much forcing buyers to chase higher.
$64K remains the level I want to see reclaimed.
Until then, patience.

BTC at $62,900: the longer it moves sideways, the more nervous you should be!

First, look at the surface: boring sideways movement, with retail traders half-asleep.

Over the past week, BTC has been grinding back and forth within the painfully narrow $62,000-$63,500 range, with daily volatility below 2%. It is down 28% YTD and has retraced nearly 50% from its all-time high of $126k. Overall market sentiment has shifted from “panic” to “numbness”: Bollinger Bands have narrowed to an extreme, and every time this pattern appears, it is followed by a 15-20% one-sided move.

First: ETFs are seeing outflows, but BTC has not collapsed.

From August 10-14, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw consecutive net outflows, with the daily high exceeding $100 million and cumulative outflows exceeding $300 million. Strategy continues to sell BTC on a small scale to pay dividends. Some miners are shifting to AI data centers and selling BTC.

Sounds scary? But look closely at the market—BTC has not fallen and is simply moving sideways between $62,000-$63,500. The same news could have knocked it down 5% three months ago, but the market is ignoring it outright now.

Second: The White House meeting will be held over the weekend and could be the biggest catalyst for a market shift.

Trump may attend, with executives from Coinbase, Ripple, and other companies, along with SEC/CFTC regulators. If friendly signals are released—such as a clear crypto regulatory framework or looser ETF policies—BTC could take off directly.

What if there is lots of thunder but little rain? It will continue moving sideways, or plunge.

Third: A signal has appeared on the technical side that must be taken seriously.

The daily/4H charts are ranging within a large 61K-67K box, currently moving sideways in the narrow 62,900-63,500 range. Bollinger Bands have narrowed to a historical extreme, RSI is neutral to weak, and volume has shrunk to record lows.

What does an extreme narrowing of the Bollinger Bands mean? Over the past three years, every time this pattern has appeared, it has been followed by a 15-25% one-sided move.

But the direction depends on the catalyst. An upside breakout above $65,000 targets $67k-$70,000; a downside break below $62,000 targets $61k-$60,000, and possibly $57,000-$58,000.

The bulls and bears face off—you decide

On one side:

Bollinger Bands have narrowed to an extreme; historical patterns indicate a major move is imminent

Whale addresses are increasing on a net basis, with smart money accumulating on-chain

LTH supply is at a high level, and long-term holders have not sold

The White House meeting may send friendly signals

On the other side:

ETFs are seeing consecutive net outflows, and institutional buying is weakening

Strategy continues to sell, so short-term selling pressure remains

The probability of a September FOMC rate hike is around 40%, with macro uncertainty

$65,000 has been rejected three times, creating heavy resistance

Key levels

Overhead resistance: $64,000-$65,000 → $67,000 → $70,000+

Downside support: $62,000 → $61,000 → $60,000 → $57,000-$58,000

Trading strategy

Short-term traders:

Lightly buy dips at $62,500-$63,000, with a stop-loss at $61,800 and a target of $64,000-$64,500. Scale out or lightly short around $64,500-$65,000 on a rebound, with a stop-loss above $65,500.

Swing traders:

Go long on a high-volume daily close above $65,000, targeting $67,000-$70,000, with a stop-loss below $64,000. Go short on a confirmed break below $62,000, targeting $61,000-$60,000, with a stop-loss above $63,500.

Long-term believers:

Invest in batches. Keep enough cash on hand before the September FOMC; a rate cut would be rocket fuel.

The longer the sideways movement lasts, the more violent the market shift will be.

Bollinger Bands have narrowed to an extreme, and a direction will definitely emerge over the next 7-10 days. $65,000 to the upside, $62,000 to the downside—follow whichever breaks first.

History tells you:

Every time volatility is low, you are afraid to make a decision; every time volatility is high, you chase rallies and sell into declines. The cycle repeats, and you lose money forever.

Do you think BTC will reach $65,000 or fall to $60,000 this week?

When the direction emerges, will you be the one eating the profits, or the one getting slaughtered?#比特币变盘信号出现 #我的七夕交易分享 #Gate7月增长Top1 $BTC $GT $ETH

How do genius traders read charts? Study these 20 core indicators, and you could be the next technical analysis expert:
1. Candlestick Charts
The most important thing when reading candlesticks is to assess the strength of buyers and sellers.
Several consecutive large bullish candles accompanied by increasing volume indicate strong buying pressure, so you can look for opportunities to buy with the trend.
Several consecutive large bearish candles at high levels accompanied by increasing volume should prompt caution and consideration of selling or reducing your position.
A long upper wick indicates strong selling pressure above, while a long lower wick indicates strong support below.
2. Support and Resistance
If the price stops falling and rebounds with increasing volume near support, you can consider buying.
If the price rises and then falls back with increasing volume near resistance, you can consider selling or reducing your position.
If the price breaks through resistance and holds above it, you can consider following the trend.
If the price breaks below support and confirms the breakdown, consider setting a stop-loss.
3. Market Structure
Higher highs and higher lows indicate an uptrend structure, so prioritize holding positions or looking for entry points.
Lower highs and lower lows indicate a downtrend structure, so prioritize avoiding trades or looking for exit points.
Do not chase rallies or sell into declines during range-bound markets. Wait until the price approaches the edge of the range before acting.
4. Trendlines
If the price stops falling near an uptrend line, you can look for an entry point.
If the price breaks below an uptrend line and fails to reclaim it, be alert for a weakening trend.
If a downtrend line is decisively broken, you can watch for buying opportunities after a trend reversal.
5. Breakouts
If the price breaks through resistance with increasing volume, you can consider buying.
If the price retests the breakout level on declining volume and holds above it, this can provide a better second entry point.
If the price breaks below important support with increasing volume, consider reducing your position or setting a stop-loss.
Do not immediately chase a price higher just because of a breakout on a single candlestick, to avoid false breakouts.
6. Trading Volume
Rising prices accompanied by increasing volume are a relatively healthy bullish signal.
Falling prices accompanied by decreasing volume indicate that selling pressure may be weakening.
Rising prices accompanied by decreasing volume should raise concerns about insufficient upward momentum.
If extremely high volume appears at high levels but the price stops rising, be alert for large players distributing their positions.
7. Supply and Demand
If the price returns to a historically strong demand zone and stops falling, you can look for an entry point.
If the price enters a strong supply zone and then rises before falling back, you can consider reducing your position.
If a demand zone is decisively broken, the original buying thesis is invalidated.
If a supply zone is decisively broken, it may turn into new support.
8. BOS Breaking the high/low in the direction of the trend
If an uptrend breaks above the previous high, forming an upward BOS, it indicates that the trend remains strong. You can continue holding or look for a pullback entry.
If a downtrend breaks below the previous low, forming a downward BOS, avoid trying to catch the bottom and prioritize risk management.
BOS is best used to confirm a trend, not as a standalone signal to chase a rally.
9. CHOCH Breaking a key defense point against the trend
If an uptrend produces a downward CHOCH, it indicates that the market structure is beginning to weaken, so you can consider reducing your position.
If a downtrend produces an upward CHOCH, it indicates that the market may be starting to strengthen, so you can watch for subsequent entry opportunities.
10. Reversals
Double tops, head-and-shoulders tops, and bearish divergences at high levels should raise concerns about selling.
Double bottoms, inverse head-and-shoulders patterns, and bullish divergences at low levels can signal buying opportunities.
Reversal patterns are most reliable when they appear near important support or resistance.
11. Dynamic Support and Resistance
If the price continues to hold above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, it indicates a relatively strong trend. You can hold positions or look for pullback entries.
If the price breaks below an important moving average and fails to reclaim it, be alert for a weakening trend.
When long-term moving averages are rising, holding positions for the medium to long term is appropriate. When long-term moving averages are falling, avoid trying to catch bottoms against the trend.
12. Fibonacci Retracement
After an advance, when the price pulls back to around 38.2%, 50%, or 61.8%, observe whether it stops falling.
If a bullish candle, increasing volume, and structural support appear at a key retracement level, you can consider buying.
If the key level is broken repeatedly, do not stubbornly hold onto the Fibonacci level.
13. Momentum Indicators
When momentum indicators such as MACD move upward, they indicate strengthening upward momentum and can be combined with the trend to find entry points.
When momentum continues to move downward, avoid buying against the trend as much as possible.
If momentum clearly weakens at high levels, you can consider reducing your position in advance.
14. Oscillators
When RSI is around or below 30, you can begin watching for a rebound after oversold conditions.
When RSI is around or above 70, be alert for short-term overheating.
However, do not sell immediately just because RSI is overbought during a strong trend, and do not automatically try to catch the bottom just because it is oversold.
15. Divergence
If the price reaches a new high but MACD and RSI do not, this is bearish divergence, signaling that upward momentum may be exhausted.
If the price reaches a new low but the indicators do not, this is bullish divergence, and you can watch for a rebound opportunity.
Divergence is best confirmed with support, resistance, and candlestick signals. Do not trade it on its own.
16. FVG Fair Value Gap
If an FVG in an uptrend is filled and the price then resumes rising, you can watch for a buying opportunity.
If an FVG in a downtrend is followed by a rebound and then further weakness, you can watch for a selling opportunity.
17. Harmonic Patterns
If the price forms a complete harmonic pattern and reaches a potential reversal zone, you can look for buying or selling opportunities.
At low levels, look for bullish patterns and buying opportunities. At high levels, look for bearish patterns and selling opportunities.
Always wait for the pattern to be completed. Do not place a bet early just because the price action looks similar.
18. Elliott Wave
If you determine that the market is currently in a major impulse wave, you can hold with the trend.
If you determine that the market has entered a corrective wave, reduce your position size.
Do not place too much faith in wave counts, because different people may reach completely different conclusions about the same price action.
It is better suited for identifying the overall trend than for making standalone buy or sell decisions.
19. Heikin-Ashi
If several consecutive strong bullish candles appear without significant lower wicks, you can continue holding.
If several consecutive strong bearish candles appear without significant upper wicks, be alert for a downtrend.
It is suitable for identifying trends, but not for determining precise entry points or stop-loss prices.
20. Renko Charts
Several consecutive bricks moving in the same direction indicate a strong trend, so you can hold with the trend.
A brick in the opposite direction can serve as a warning that the trend is weakening.
It is suitable for trend trading, but not for capturing particularly precise short-term entry and exit points.
When buying, look at five indicators at the same time: trend + key levels + structure + trading volume + momentum. When multiple signals point in the same direction, go for it!

Bitcoin’s Rainbow Chart is getting interesting again.
$BTC is sitting close to the lower valuation bands instead of the overheated zones we usually see near cycle tops.

APR at $0.18—are you going to buy the dip?

Look at the surface first: a surge and plunge, leaving a complete mess.

On August 12, the official team announced a buyback of 5.3% of the total supply (52.8 million tokens), sending the price directly from the lows to double and surge to 0.4-0.6. Two days later, a huge red candle slammed it back to 0.14, a drop of over 60%. Social platforms exploded: “RUG!” “The team dumped!” But there is no hard evidence of an exit scam. The 0.17-0.18 range has been repeatedly tested, RSI has entered oversold territory, and trading volume expanded to massive levels during the plunge. It is either the bottom or an abyss.

First: the buyback is real, but “buyback” does not equal “price pump.”

The team spent real money buying back 5.3% of the supply from early investors, redirecting it toward community incentives and ecosystem development. As soon as the news came out, market FOMO went into overdrive—the price doubled in two days and peaked at 0.6.

But the buyback was from early investors, not the secondary market.

Whales successfully sold, and retail investors successfully became exit liquidity. Look at that wick from 0.6 back to 0.14—who dumped it? In any case, it was not retail investors.

Second: the fundamentals cannot support 0.6; even 0.2 is a stretch.

The total supply is 1 billion, with 278 million in circulation. The market cap is approximately $50 million, but the FDV is as high as $180-200 million. What does that mean? At the current price of 0.18, if the entire supply were circulating, the actual value would only be $0.09.

The protocol’s TVL is only $500k-$800k, and net protocol revenue over the past 12 months was only a few thousand dollars.

A few thousand dollars in revenue supporting a $200 million valuation—this is not investing; it is a faith top-up.

Third: the technicals tell you that retail investors trying to buy the dip have already been buried twice.

From 0.6 to 0.14, the drop exceeded 70%. Daily RSI has entered oversold territory, and a bullish divergence is beginning to appear on the 4H timeframe. It looks beautiful.

But every rebound to 0.19-0.20 comes with declining volume, indicating that no new capital is entering; it is all trapped holders trying to rescue themselves. The 0.17-0.18 area is the bulls’ final line of defense—break below 0.146 and the next target is 0.10; hold 0.17 and see volume increase, and there is a chance of reaching 0.25.

Bulls versus bears—you decide

On one side:

Buyback of 5.3% of the supply; the deflationary narrative remains

From 0.6 to 0.14, a 70% drop; RSI oversold

The Monad ecosystem has long-term potential (high-throughput chain + MEV narrative)

A market cap of only $50 million means a low cost to pump

On the other side:

TVL is only $500,000, with annual revenue of a few thousand dollars

FDV is severely overvalued ($200 million vs. actual revenue)

The buyback essentially allows early investors to cash out

The macro environment is weak, and small-cap altcoins follow declines but not gains

Key levels

Upside resistance: 0.19-0.20 → 0.22-0.25 → 0.30+ (previous high area)

Downside support: 0.17 → 0.146-0.15 (strong support) → 0.10-0.12

Trading strategy

Aggressive gamblers (short term):

Wait for volume-backed stabilization around 0.17-0.173 before cautiously going long, with a target of 0.19-0.20 and a stop-loss at 0.165.

Most people: Wait for a bottom formation and a high-volume bullish candle in the 0.146-0.15 range before considering an entry.

Bearish approach:

If a rebound to 0.19-0.20 meets resistance on declining volume, cautiously try a short, targeting 0.17-0.15, with a stop-loss at 0.205.

APR’s current script—

It is exactly the same as those “buyback narrative + low TVL” altcoins from 2024-2025: announce bullish news → pump → FOMO → whales sell → crash → rebound → continued selling.

The buyback is real, but the people making money are early investors. The money you make is the portion someone else deliberately left on the table for you to see.

When a project uses a few thousand dollars in revenue to support a $200 million valuation, it is not worth that much—you are helping someone else hold the price at that level.

Did you make money or lose money on APR?

At 0.18, do you dare bet on a rebound? #比特币变盘信号出现 #我的七夕交易分享 #Gate7月增长Top1 $BTC $ETH $APR

$BOME Market Snapshot

$BOME is showing strong upward momentum on the 15-minute chart, currently trading around 0.0008778 (+3.62%).

After a quick dip down toward the 0.0008384 support area, buyers pushed the price up to a local high of 0.0008890.
24h High: 0.0009443
24h Low: 0.0007830
24h Volume: 3.22B BOME

Price action is currently consolidating just below resistance.

A breakout above 0.0008890 could spark another rally toward the 24h high.

Keep a close eye on support levels if volatility kicks in!#GateLaunchpool141MDOS #GateTop1GrowthInJuly #SandiskSurges14%OnNewFinancialFramework

What is the sweetest love confession on Qixi Festival?
A: I love you
B: I like you
C: I’ll support you
D: Which stock do you like? I’ll push it to the daily limit-up price.

Did you really understand “Niu Lai”?:
1. The entire movie is set in a vast green forest
Green represents falling prices. It symbolizes a stock market environment that keeps declining—a full-on bear market.
2. Niu Lai’s best friend is named “Bao La”
“Bao La” sounds like “violent pump.” It is a young leopard that has not yet grown up.
When the wolves come to take the cattle, the little leopard desperately tries to protect them, but it is too weak and ultimately fails to save the herd.
This symbolizes the occasional explosive rallies (“violent pumps”). They look fierce, but are actually too weak to stop the real predators from harvesting the market.
3. The villains are three gray wolves
These three wolves represent hot money, foreign capital, and quantitative funds.
They symbolize forces that specifically target retail investors (the herd) for harvesting and are the true predators.
4. Little Rope Head (the candlestick chart) is a green snake
Niu Lai foolishly tries to befriend it, only to be bitten in return.
This symbolizes how candlestick charts may look like they can be trusted, but often deceive people, and one careless move can leave you bitten by a slow decline.
5. Niu Lai must cross a vast desert to reach the oasis
The desert = a market with no liquidity, no market activity, and depleted funds. Along the way, Niu Lai survives only because his mother feeds him milk several times. Niu Lai’s mother = the central bank.
This symbolizes how, no matter how poor market conditions are, retail investors can only survive by relying on the central bank to inject liquidity, cut reserve requirements, and rescue the market several times.
6. The most heartbreaking part of the ending: it was all a dream Niu Lai had
Niu Lai dreams that he transforms from a weak calf into a powerful bull, protecting everyone along the way and defeating the wolf pack.
When he wakes up, he discovers that he is still a newborn, fragile calf, and none of it actually happened.
This symbolizes how everyone’s fantasy of “the bull market has arrived, retail investors will turn their fortunes around, and strength will rise” ultimately turns out to be nothing more than a dream. In reality, Niu Lai (the retail investor) is still weak and continues to be harvested.
Retail investors, bring 2 packs of tissues when you go to watch it!😭

Gold at $4,385—are you going to chase it?

On the surface: a stunning rebound, but resistance is everywhere.

Gold staged a strong rebound from the 4050-4100 lows in early August, reaching as high as 4450 and gaining nearly 10% in one week. Perpetual futures are currently around 4385, while spot closed at 4375-4376. But the 4400 level has already rejected price three times. RSI is neutral to slightly bullish, while MACD momentum has turned positive but has not diverged significantly. A directional move is coming—it will be either a sharp surge or a sharp plunge.

First: Fed rate hike expectations have collapsed, and gold's biggest enemy has surrendered.

July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly showed negative growth—the forecast was for an increase of 83k, but the actual figure fell by 23k. CPI was moderate, and PPI declined.

After a series of "economic cooling" data releases, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September plunged from 55% a week ago to 33%. The probability of keeping rates unchanged surged above 65%.

Gold's biggest source of pressure was previously "high-rate expectations." Now that expectation has collapsed, gold prices are bound to rebound.

Second: Central banks are buying, institutions are hoarding, and retail investors are afraid.

Global central banks made net gold purchases of 289 tons in the second quarter, reaching a seasonal record high. The demand for reserve diversification in emerging markets has not stopped.

The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 19 consecutive months. UBS says gold remains "the most attractive strategic diversification tool."

Third: 4400 has failed three times—is this "three visits to the thatched cottage" or "three strikes and you're out"?

After surging to 4450 on August 13, profit-taking sent gold back down to 4310. It then rebounded and fluctuated around 4380.

The 4400 level has already faced resistance three times.

First: the retreat from the 4450 high

Second: the rebound to around 4400 was hammered down

Third: the current battle, with repeated tug-of-war in the 4385-4400 range

On the fourth attempt, will it pierce straight through 4400 toward 4500, or get hammered back down to 4200?

You decide in the battle between bulls and bears

On one side:

The probability of a Fed rate hike in September plunged from 55% to 33%, removing the biggest source of pressure

Negative nonfarm payroll growth + moderate CPI + declining PPI, easing "stagflation concerns"

Central banks made net gold purchases of 289 tons in the second quarter, a record

Goldman Sachs at 4900, JPMorgan at 5000, and UBS at 5200—Wall Street is collectively bullish

Technically, the descending channel has been broken and the retest has confirmed the breakout

On the other side:

4400 has failed three times, creating enormous psychological pressure

Gold has already rebounded nearly 10% in August, leaving substantial profit-taking pressure

Core CPI at 2.5% and core PPI at 4.2% remain above the 2% target

If subsequent data unexpectedly strengthens, rate hike expectations could rebound at any time

Key levels

Upside resistance: 4400 (psychological threshold) → 4440-4450 (August high) → 4500

Downside support: 4350-4360 → 4310-4320 (August 14 low) → 4200-4250

Trading strategy

Short-term traders:

Go long with a small position on a pullback to 4350-4365, with a stop-loss at 4300 and a target of 4400-4430. Chase the move if 4400 breaks out on heavy volume, with a stop-loss at 4360 and targets of 4450-4500.

Swing traders:

Wait for a pullback to 4310-4320 or a confirmed breakout above 4400 on heavy volume before entering, targeting 4500+.

Long-term believers:

Build positions in batches on a pullback to 4250-4300. Central bank gold purchases + the Fed rate-cut cycle (even if it only means pausing rate hikes) + geopolitical uncertainty—the medium- to long-term logic remains unchanged.

Gold now looks just like Bitcoin in October 2023—

Everyone was waiting to "buy the pullback," but it never looked back, rising directly from 1800 to 2100.

On the day 4400 breaks through, you will realize:

It wasn't that gold was no good—it was that you hesitated every time before the takeoff.

Did you buy the dip at 4050?

At 4385, do you dare chase it? #闪迪两周反弹63% #比特币变盘信号出现 #我的七夕交易分享 $BTC $XAU $XAUT

Bitcoin after Clarity Act passes.

SNDK at $1,660—are you chasing it?

First, on the surface: a barrage of positive catalysts, breaking through with unstoppable momentum.

From the July 30 low of $970, SNDK rebounded 63.6% over two weeks, outperforming Micron by 26.8 percentage points and SK hynix by 30.2 percentage points. On August 13, Investor Day, the stock surged 13.67% to close at $1,528, then rose another 7.39% on August 14 to close at $1,641.11. The price is firmly above the 50 EMA (1423) and 200 EMA (1460), with a positive MACD—bulls are unstoppable.

First: What “nuclear bomb” did Investor Day unleash?

The company provided a long-term FY2028-2030 model:

Mid-to-high double-digit revenue growth

Non-GAAP gross margin sustained at around 80%

Operating margin of around 75%

Free cash flow margin of around 50%

100% of excess cash returned to shareholders

SanDisk has signed long-term NBM agreements with 8 customers, including 3 U.S. hyperscale cloud service providers.

SanDisk is no longer a cyclical storage stock—it is a core AI infrastructure supplier.

Second: Wait—RSI 89. Are you sure you want to chase it now?

The technical indicators are already flashing red.

RSI 6 has surged to 89.55. What does that mean? It is more overbought than it was at the June ATH. RSI is still above 76.

The stock has risen 63% in two weeks, with almost no meaningful pullback in between. After forming a short-term high around 1663, trading volume shrank sharply. A bearish FVG (fair value gap) resistance zone exists at 1698-1746.

With this kind of move, once sentiment fades, the stampede could be brutal.

Third: The shorts have already amassed $750 million.

Across several exchanges, the amount of SNDK short positions totals as much as $750 million. After a whale closed out a long position, it reversed into a 10x short on SNDK, with a position value of approximately $3.9 million. Retail traders have also been calling for “finding a position to short at 1680-1780, targeting 10%.”

But the more shorts there are, the more likely the main players are to squeeze them out. $750 million in short positions means $750 million in fuel. If the stock continues higher at Monday’s open, shorts will face cascading liquidations, and the price could be pushed directly to 1700-1730.

The bull-bear showdown—you decide

On one side:

Investor Day delivered explosive long-term guidance: 80%+ gross margin, 50%+ FCF margin, and 100% of cash returned to shareholders

8 customers have locked in two-thirds of production capacity for the next two years, with $93.9 billion in contracts providing a floor

JPMorgan has a $2,250 target, Goldman Sachs $2,200, leaving another 37% upside

A 63% rebound in two weeks, unstoppable bulls, and $750 million in shorts that could be squeezed out at any moment

On the other side:

RSI has surged to 76-89, indicating extreme overbought conditions

A 63% two-week rally with no pullback, leaving massive unrealized profits

Citi just cut its price target, while Wedbush questioned the long-term guidance

A short-term high formed around 1663, followed by a sharp contraction in trading volume

Once the storage cycle turns, the decline could be faster than the rise

Key levels

Upside resistance: 1667 (today’s high) → 1700 → 1735 → 1800 → 2000 → 2354 (ATH)

Downside support: 1580-1600 → 1550 → 1515-1530 → 1454 → 1423-1460 (dense EMA zone)

Trading strategy

Short-term traders:

Wait for a pullback to 1580-1600 and consider entering once it stabilizes, with a stop-loss below 1530 and a target of 1700-1800. Alternatively, wait for a high-volume breakout above 1667 and confirmation before chasing.

Swing traders:

Take partial profits at high levels, near 1700+, and wait for a pullback below 1550 before re-entering.

Short sellers (aggressive):

If the stock surges to 1650-1700 on low volume and shows a long upper shadow or an engulfing pattern, consider a small short position, targeting 1550-1454, with a stop-loss above 1720.

Long-term believers:

Wait for a pullback to the 1400-1450 area before building a position in batches.

SNDK’s current script—

It is exactly the same as MU’s move a month ago: positive catalyst → violent rally → retail FOMO chasing highs → overbought → pullback → retail bagholders left holding the bag.

Every time you chase above RSI 76, you are handing money to the institutions that bought the dip at 970 two weeks ago.

When the positive catalysts are fully priced in, that is often the short-term top.

The real main uptrend starts when nobody is paying attention.#Gate7月增长Top1 #我的七夕交易分享 #闪迪两周反弹63% $BTC $SNDK $MU

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