Gold at $4,400—would you dare chase it?
First, look at the surface: it took gold six months to fall from $5,500 to $4,000, but only one month to rebound from $4,000 to $4,400.
What happened over the past week? U.S. July retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.6%, consumer confidence declined for the first time in three months, and economic data weakened across the board. Market bets on a September rate hike plunged directly from 55% to 33%. The weaker dollar directly benefited gold.
First: Inflation cooled, but gold did not fall.
U.S. July CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year, versus 3.5% previously; core CPI rose 2.5%, versus 2.6% previously. PPI rose 4.7% year-on-year, versus 5.5% previously. After two consecutive months of cooling, the market directly interpreted this as meaning the Federal Reserve will most likely stand pat in September.
Inflation is down, the rate-hike probability is down, and the dollar is weaker—if gold does not rise, it would defy reason.
Second: The Strait of Hormuz is the real “gold catalyst.”
On August 10, Trump claimed that the United States had “100%” control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s deputy foreign minister directly hit back: “The Strait of Hormuz belonged to Iran in the past, belongs to Iran now, and will belong to Iran in the future.” The 60-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement expires today, and there are no signs of negotiations between the two sides.
Daily traffic through the strait plunged from 130 vessels before the conflict to 13, a 90% drop. Multiple oil tankers have been attacked, while some vessels have switched off their satellite transponders to pass through covertly.
If oil prices surge, inflation will return, making the Federal Reserve even less willing to cut rates. But gold? The greater the geopolitical turmoil, the stronger the safe-haven demand. Every additional day of confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz provides another layer of support for gold.
Third: Central banks are buying aggressively—this is the strongest floor.
The World Gold Council’s Q2 report: Global central banks made net gold purchases of 289 tons, up 62% year-on-year and marking the highest quarterly purchase volume in nearly four years. Global gold demand totaled $380 billion in the first half of the year, a record high.
China’s central bank has increased its holdings for 20 consecutive months, while Poland and other emerging markets are also stockpiling. 45% of surveyed central banks expect to continue increasing their gold reserves over the next year.
Fourth: Technical signals have emerged that you must take seriously.
Daily chart: After consolidating in July, gold broke upward, met resistance at $4,450, pulled back to $4,320-$4,350, and quickly recovered. It is currently fluctuating around $4,400. RSI is approximately 60-65, not overbought; MACD is positive but momentum is weakening. The key point is that gold broke above the 100-day moving average last week for the first time since April and is still holding near that level.
Weekly chart: After retreating from the January high, gold formed a base around $4,000. It has rebounded approximately 10% since August and is in the process of repairing its uptrend channel.
Bulls versus bears—you decide
On one side:
CPI and PPI have both cooled, leaving the September rate-hike probability at just 33%
The Dollar Index has fallen to around 99.5, while real interest rates are declining
The confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz continues, with strong geopolitical safe-haven demand
Q2 net central-bank gold purchases reached 289 tons, up 62% year-on-year
Gold is above the 100-day moving average, with the weekly uptrend channel intact
On the other side:
$4,400-$4,450 has failed to break three times, and profit-taking needs to be absorbed
Core inflation remains above the 2% target, and the Federal Reserve will not dare pivot easily
If the situation in the Strait of Hormuz unexpectedly eases, the safe-haven premium could quickly disappear
Weak retail sales could evolve into recession concerns
Key levels
Upside resistance: $4,450-$4,451 → $4,500-$4,506 → $4,600-$4,800
Downside support: $4,365-$4,370 → $4,320-$4,350 → $4,207
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Go long with a small position on a pullback to $4,370-$4,380, set a stop-loss below $4,350, and target $4,420-$4,450. More conservative players should wait for the strong $4,320-$4,350 support zone before entering, with a stop-loss at $4,280-$4,300 and a target of $4,450-$4,500+. If the daily close holds above $4,450, chase the long, with a stop-loss at $4,420 and a target of $4,550-$4,600.
Swing traders:
Once gold holds above $4,400 and breaks through $4,450, hold a core position for a weekly-chart target of $4,600-$4,800, and raise the stop-loss to $4,300.
Long-term believers:
Build positions in batches below $4,300. Central banks around the world are buying—are you? Year-end target: $5,200, betting on the restart of the rate-cut cycle and accelerated dedollarization.
Gold is undergoing a historic repricing—
On one side, the Federal Reserve does not dare raise rates easily; on another, central banks are aggressively stockpiling; and the Strait of Hormuz could ignite at any moment.
The day $4,450 breaks through, you will realize: It was not that gold was incapable—it was that you got off halfway up every time.
What is your cost basis for gold? At $4,400, would you dare chase it?
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