Would you dare chase BTC at $81,000?
First, the surface view: bulls and bears are fiercely battling at $81,000.
On September 3, BTC violently surged from $77,000 to above $82,000. After opening higher today, it pulled back, with an intraday low of $80,500. It is currently digesting the gains in the $80,500-$81,400 range. Liquidations over the past 24 hours exceeded $160 million, with shorts accounting for the majority.
The daily chart broke above the psychological $80,000 level and the 50-week moving average on heavy volume, then formed an upper wick today—a typical “breakout followed by a pullback confirmation” structure.
First: Waller’s one statement ignited the market, but the market may have overreacted.
Fed Governor Waller indicated a preference for keeping rates unchanged in September, directly pushing rate-hike expectations from 60%+ to around 50%, a “coin toss” state. ETF net inflows reached $731 million in a single day, with BlackRock alone buying $454 million—the highest single-day figure since January this year.
Retail traders see $700 million in inflows and shorts getting liquidated, and think “the bull market is back.”
What truly determines the direction is today’s nonfarm payrolls report, not Waller’s statement yesterday.
If payrolls are weak again, rate-hike expectations will continue to cool and risk assets will take off; if the data is unexpectedly strong and wages remain sticky, yields and the dollar will rebound, sending BTC straight back to $77,500. Chasing the rally before the data is essentially betting on red or black at a casino.
Second: On-chain data tells you—there is a “wall” above and a “floor” below.
Currently, about 68% of the supply is in profit. What does that mean?
Long-term holder (LTH) cost basis is concentrated in the $83,000-$86,000 range—with about 1.05 million BTC stuck in this zone. This is the real bagholder sell wall from major holders: once they break even, they will run.
What about below? The short-term holder cost basis/average cost of active investors is around $76,350-$77,000. This is the support zone that has been repeatedly tested recently and attracted buying.
Third: September seasonality is weak—don’t let one bullish candle change your conviction.
Historical data shows that BTC’s average return in September is negative. Over the years, September has mostly been weak.
Today’s nonfarm payrolls report is the biggest variable: the market expects about 55,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. If the data is weak → rate-cut expectations heat up → bullish; if the data is strong → rate-hike expectations recover → bearish.
The September 11 CPI report and September 16 FOMC meeting are still ahead. Oil has broken above $91 due to US-Iran tensions, creating potential inflationary pressure.
The bull-bear showdown—make your own call
On one side:
ETF net inflows of $731 million in a single day, a new yearly high
Waller’s dovish remarks, cooling rate-hike expectations
A high-volume breakout above $80,000 + the 50-week moving average, turning the technical picture bullish
$160 million in shorts liquidated, with short-squeeze momentum still present
On the other side:
A bagholder wall of 1.05 million BTC at $83,000-$86,000
Weak September seasonality and the dual data window of nonfarm payrolls and CPI
The rally contains an element of a “short squeeze” and is not driven by genuine buying
If the data is hawkish, a direct retreat to $77,000+
Resistance above: $81,500-$82,500 (multiple failed attempts to hold) → $83,000-$86,000 (dense LTH bagholder zone) → $88,000-$90,000
Support below: $80,500 (today’s low) → $79,500-$80,000 → $76,300-$77,000 (iron floor; a break would weaken the structure → watch $72,000-$75,000)
Trading strategy
If nonfarm payrolls are weak (bullish):
Lightly test longs on a pullback to $79,800-$80,500, with a stop-loss at $77,600 (a break would damage the structure), targeting $82,500-$83,000 → $85,000-$86,000.
If nonfarm payrolls are unexpectedly strong (bearish):
If $80,500 breaks on heavy volume, stay on the sidelines or lightly test shorts, targeting $78,000-$77,000.
Take-profit zone: Scale out at $83,000-$86,000; don’t fantasize about reaching $100,000 in one move.
In the long term, if macro conditions shift toward easing and ETF inflows continue, there is still room for $90,000+ by year-end, but over the next 1-2 weeks, BTC must first clear the $80,000-$86,000 hurdle.
BTC is moving sideways at $81,000, and 99% of people are agonizing over whether to chase—
But think about it: what were you doing when BTC was at $77,000? Waiting for $60,000. What were you doing when it reached $82,000? Waiting for a pullback.
And then? You bought nothing.
The market always rewards those who dare to place bets at key levels and punishes those who hesitate.
What will you choose for today’s nonfarm payrolls report?
Is your current BTC position empty, half-invested, or fully invested?
After the data is released, which side will you bet on?
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