Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

Last night at 20:30, the U.S. Department of Labor dropped a bombshell.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 162k in August, versus market expectations of just 56k—nearly triple expectations.
June and July data were also revised up by a combined 55k.
Then what happened in the market?
Gold: Spot gold plunged more than $70 in a short period. It hit an intraday low of $4,365, diving directly from above $4,470.
Silver: It plunged $1.5 in a short period to $65.7 per ounce, briefly falling below the $65 mark.
U.S. Dollar Index: It surged 34 points in a short period, reaching 99.36.
Bitcoin: It plunged from $81,600, instantly breaking below $80k. More than $200 million in positions were liquidated across the network in one hour, including $186 million in long positions. Total liquidations over the past 24 hours reached as high as $768 million.
This was not a case of each asset fighting its own battle. It was a collective shift in the macro narrative—
From “a weak economy → rate hikes are paused” back to “a strong economy → rate hikes.”
After the data was released, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September surged directly from a coin toss to 60.3%.
History does not simply repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
The exact same script played out on June 5: stronger-than-expected payrolls → gold plunges → Bitcoin falls to $61,801 → $160 million in liquidations.
Last night, the same script was replayed at a different price.
The gold-silver ratio was already elevated before the data was released—silver had retraced more than 23% from its January high.
Weak industrial demand amplified silver’s downside sensitivity in a rate-hike environment. The gold-silver ratio widened—
Is this an early warning signal of recession, or simply an interest-rate shock?
The answer may be both.
Some people call BTC “digital gold.”
So why did it fall together with gold?
Because at this moment, they are both “non-yielding assets”—in the face of rate-hike expectations, neither is more special than the other.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped to 4.792%, while the 2-year yield soared to 4.406%.
Rising risk-free rates directly drain liquidity from zero-yield assets.
When gold, silver, and BTC all plunge in response to the same payrolls report,
don’t ask “Why did BTC fall along with them”—
The answer is macro.
The new rule under the Fed led by Warsh is: no forward guidance, only hard data—raise rates when the data is strong, pause when the data is weak.
Friday’s payrolls report was merely the “first round of screening”; next week’s CPI will be the “final verdict.”#美国8月非农超预期 #Gate用户突破6000万 #BTC收复8万美元 $BTC $XAU $XAG

Crypto Investors One Day.

Gobao travels around the world~ So cool! Hurry back.

The bStocks U.S. stock Meme lineup has expanded again, teaming up with bstocksfinance to go all-in on new assets. This time, four new trading pairs were added at once: Trump Media’s $DJTb, Robinhood, the brokerage giant’s $HOODb, vaccine stock Moderna’s $MRNAb , and clean energy stock $FLNCb. Builder is now...

Record, September 4, 2026. Most of the time, as seasoned traders, we can roughly judge the most likely direction of a market move, but there’s no way to accurately predict how the details will unfold or how far it will ultimately go; BUT, what we can control is when and how we respond. Please pull up this post again in a month and take another look.

Getting ready for a cooling-off period on the contracts! The tactical position can’t be touched anymore! The first wick, even if it doesn’t mark the end of the trend, is still a signal. It signals that we’ve entered difficulty mode;
What does difficulty mode mean? In the previous easy mode, you could put in 8 points of effort and make 12 cents. After entering difficulty mode, you might put in 12 points of effort and still lose 8 cents.

You’re too impatient.
I can tell you’re from the countryside just by your entry point.

The several Bitcoin bull markets over the past decade:
First round, 2017: from 1000 U.S. dollars to 2w U.S. dollars
Second round, 2021: from 3500 U.S. dollars to 69000 U.S. dollars
Third round, 2024: from 15000 U.S. dollars to 125000 U.S. dollars
Fourth round, 2026 to 2028: estimated to rise from 5.8w U.S. dollars to 30w U.S. dollars💲

HOOD at $122—would you buy it?
First, look at the surface: normal consolidation after a massive bullish candle.
The spot price surged 16.57% in a single day yesterday, with volume exceeding 51 million shares. It hit an intraday high of 124.88, while perpetuals touched 126 before pulling back. Today, it retraced to around 122, narrowing its 24-hour gain to approximately 11%. But from the March low of 64 to now, it has nearly doubled. All moving averages are in bullish alignment, and the medium-term trend is clearly upward, but RSI is already overbought, so the short term needs consolidation.
First: Wall Street is collectively bullish, but this is no longer the same playbook as 2021.
Morgan Stanley upgraded it to Overweight, with a target of 150; Piper Sandler set a target of 145; Scotiabank initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a target of 136; Deutsche Bank specifically highlighted prediction markets as the next breakout opportunity.
Does it sound like the feeling of ARK touting Coinbase in 2021? Look closely—this time, they are not betting on retail investors to take the other side. They are betting on enterprise-level KPI contracts, a market that could exceed $1 trillion by 2028.
Second: The fundamentals are too solid to attack.
Here are the Q2 figures:
Revenue: 1.31 billion, up 32% year over year
EPS: 0.62, up 48% year over year and above expectations
Platform assets: 369 billion
Gold subscribers: 4.8 million, up 39% year over year
Net inflows over the past 12 months: 75 billion, with annualized growth of 25-28%
Thirteen business lines each generating more than 100 million in annualized revenue—from crypto trading to prediction markets, and from credit cards to tokenized stocks. It is no longer the Robinhood that relied solely on retail investors gambling on options to earn commissions.
Third: Macro conditions are cooling, putting a damper on short-term sentiment.
Today’s August nonfarm payrolls came in at 162k, far above the expected 56k, while the labor force participation rate rebounded. Federal funds futures show the probability of a rate hike at the September FOMC meeting jumping from 55% to 62%.
What does this mean for HOOD?
High-valuation growth stocks will face short-term pressure
But rate hikes also benefit net interest income (the company has plenty of customer funds earning interest)
Overall, the market is shifting from a “rate-cut frenzy” to “data-dependent volatility”
The September 9 Goldman Sachs conference, September 10 monthly operating data, and next week’s CPI/PPI—this dense event window will only bring greater volatility.
Upside resistance: 124.7-125 → 130-135 → 145-150 (analyst target zone)
Downside support: 120 (psychological level) → 113-116 (pre-breakout base + moving averages) → 105-110 (demand zone)
The bulls and bears are battling it out—judge for yourself
On one side:
Wall Street is collectively raising its price targets, with the highest at 150
Prediction market revenue could grow 10x, with enterprise KPI contracts becoming the next trillion-dollar market
Robinhood Chain’s DEX trading volume reached 34.6 billion in two months, as its on-chain ecosystem explodes
Q2 revenue up 32% and EPS up 48%, marking a successful transformation
Bullish technical alignment, with the high-volume breakout holding
On the other side:
It has risen from 64 to 124, nearly doubling, leaving substantial profit-taking pressure
RSI is overbought, and the short term needs a pullback for consolidation
Rising rate-hike expectations are pressuring high-valuation assets
A P/E of 45-55x is not cheap; no matter how good the story is, part of it is already reflected in the share price
Trading strategy
For short-term traders:
Lightly enter long at 122-120, with a stop-loss below 118. Look first for a retest of 125; if it breaks through, target 130-135.
For swing traders:
Wait for the 116-113 area to stabilize (confirmed by a lower wick or a high-volume bullish candle) before entering, with a target of 125-135 and a stop-loss below 110.
With CPI/PPI data releases concentrated next week, consider reducing leverage or setting stop-loss orders before the data
If it breaks below 113 on high volume, the bullish thesis weakens—exit and wait on the sidelines
HOOD’s rally this time is essentially the same as Coinbase in 2020 and MicroStrategy in 2023—
The market finally realized: “Oh, it is not the company I thought it was.”
When analysts collectively raise their price targets, it is often not the end of the move, but the starting point for the market to reprice the asset.
At 122, would you get on board?
Do you think this pullback is a dip-buying opportunity or a trend reversal?#Gate用户突破6000万 #BTC收复8万美元 #非农就业报告即将揭晓 $BTC $HOOD $UNI

2015: “It’s too late to buy Bitcoin” → $430
2016: “It’s too late to buy Bitcoin” → $960
2017: “It’s too late to buy Bitcoin” → $13.8 K
2018: “It’s too late to buy Bitcoin” → $3.7 K
2019: “It’s too late to buy Bitcoin” → $7.2 K
2020: “It’s too late to buy Bitcoin” → $29 K
2021: “It’s too late to buy Bitcoin” → $46.3 K
2022: “It’s too late to buy Bitcoin” → $16.5 K
2023: “It’s too late to buy Bitcoin” → $42.2 K
2024: “It’s too late to buy Bitcoin” → $93.4 K
2025: “It’s too late to buy Bitcoin” → $126 K
2026: “It’s too late to buy Bitcoin” → $79 K

SOL at $101—are you buying the dip?
First, on the surface: a strong jobs report crushed rate-cut expectations, and the price was rejected from $109 back to $100.
Today's August jobs report showed +162k jobs, far above the expected 56k, while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. Is the hawkish Fed going to toughen its stance again? The probability of a September rate hike has been pushed back up. SOL plunged directly from $105 to $101, with panic sellers fleeing in droves.
The K-line tells you: the daily price remains above the 20/50/200 moving averages, and the bullish moving-average alignment is still intact
First: the strong jobs report scared you badly, but is a rate hike really coming?
The August jobs report was indeed strong: +162k vs. the expected 56k. The probability of the Federal Reserve making "one rate hike" at its September 15-16 meeting has been pushed back up. Chair Warsh is hawkish, and the market has been repeatedly swinging back and forth over the past week.
But what is the truth? Inflation has already fallen from its highs. Rates are now 3.5%-3.75%, still restrictive by historical standards. What difference would one 25bp hike make? Even after the hike, rates would still be 3.75%-4%, well below 2024's 5%+.
Second: ETFs are accumulating, and institutions have never stopped.
U.S. spot SOL ETFs have recorded cumulative net inflows of approximately $1.35 billion, with approximately $1.46 billion in AUM. Bitwise BSOL is the main player, already exceeding $1 billion in assets. Recently, the pattern has merely shifted from "11 consecutive days of inflows" to "inflows and outflows," not large-scale redemptions.
Schwab plans to add SOL to its trading products. Circle continues issuing USDC on SOL. The staking rate is approximately 65%-70%, keeping circulating sell pressure under control.
Third: a signal has emerged on the technical side that must be taken seriously.
Rejected at 109-111? Completely normal. That is the previous high plus a high-volume trading zone, so failing to break through on the first attempt is only natural.
Now it is retesting $100—the psychological threshold and round-number level. 97-98 is the breakout platform and also structural support. The daily EMA20 is at 95-96, the EMA50 at 83-88, and the EMA200 at 82-90. All the moving averages are below the price, so the trend has not broken down.
On the 4H timeframe, 103-105 is today's long-short turnover zone. There is a concentrated leveraged long area around 106-107, and breaking through it could easily trigger short stop-losses.
The key level is 101, just $4 away from the survival line at 97.
The bulls and bears face off—judge for yourself
On one side:
Cumulative ETF net inflows of $1.35 billion, with institutions continuing to accumulate
A 65%-70% staking rate, with sell pressure under control
Tx V1 launches on mainnet on September 9, upgrading throughput once again
A 45% rise from 75 to 109, with an 8% pullback being healthy
Bullish moving-average alignment, with rising volume on advances and shrinking volume on pullbacks
On the other side:
The jobs report exceeded expectations, and the probability of a September rate hike has risen
Geopolitical disruptions, oil-price volatility, and declining risk appetite
Failure to break above 109 three times, creating short-term double-top pressure
If CPI also exceeds expectations, a rate hike will be virtually certain
Resistance above: 105-107 → 109-111 → 120 → 146-150
Support below: 100-101 → 97-98 → 94-95 → 90 (iron floor)
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Wait for a confirmed retest of 97.5-100 before going long (in batches), with a stop-loss at 95.5 and targets of 105→107; only reduce, not add, at 109-111.
Swing traders:
Build a low-leverage/spot position around 100, with a stop-loss if the daily close breaks below 90-92; target 120 first, then 146-150
Conservative observers:
Wait for the daily chart to stabilize above 107 and for a retest to hold above 104 before chasing longs; chase a breakout above 111.
This retest of $100 by SOL is merely a "stress test" during the uptrend—
99% of people think "a rate hike is coming, run now," but ETFs are accumulating, the staking rate is 70%, and there is still a network upgrade in September.
At $101, do you dare buy the dip?
The people who make money in crypto are always the minority—most people were afraid to buy at 75, chased at 109, and sold at a loss at 100.
What is your SOL cost basis?
On the day CPI is released next Thursday, will you slap your thigh in regret or pop champagne?#Gate用户突破6000万 #BTC收复8万美元 #非农就业报告即将揭晓 $ETH $SOL $BTC

The latest US jobs data just made the Fed outlook more interesting.
Unemployment came in at 4.1%, right in line with expectations, while the economy added 162,000 jobs in August versus just 55,000 expected.
That tells us the labor market is still holding up better than expected.
Now the focus shifts to inflation.
If next week’s inflation data stays hot, especially with oil prices moving higher, the Fed may have more room to keep rates higher for longer or even consider another hike.
For markets, the next inflation print could be the real trigger.

Guys, if you’re thinking about aping into Robinhood, calm down first. A friend of mine just told me he saw someone make 1,000x on Robinhood today, and he got really anxious. He wants to jump in and go all in, but every time he tries to make a big move, he ends up becoming the liquidity that the malicious market makers go all in on. His “lose money the moment I enter” indicator has never failed so far…

In the AI era, it really feels like you can easily be left behind if you’re not paying attention! These days, my daily routine is still: checking notifications on X, checking public data, browsing geopolitical news, and looking at the charts. Going through all of that, including both browsing and thinking, can easily take 1–2 hours, and I still may not be able to go through all the information.

Fuck, what’s going on now? Gold everywhere, money everywhere!!! Robinhood is blooming everywhere, making you dizzy with profits and pumping so hard your parents won’t recognize you Mars has launched on spot markets on BSC, a top-tier counterattack, the ultimate finishing blow of suppression Base goes after Basecat, only Basecat—DCA into institutional coins like this This is the bull market. The bull is here!!!

ARB at $0.13—are you buying the dip?
Look at the surface first: a barrage of positive news, but the price surged and then retreated.
Over the past week, it violently rallied from $0.07-$0.09 to $0.146, gaining over 70%. Intraday, it pulled back to $0.13 after being hit by macro data. Robinhood Chain launched its mainnet, with daily fees surging to several million dollars. Under the protocol's 10% net revenue share, this directly brings real money to the Arbitrum ecosystem.
First: Is Robinhood Chain an “ATM” for ARB?
Robinhood Chain is based on Arbitrum Orbit technology, with daily on-chain fees surging to several million dollars. Under the protocol's 10% net revenue share (8% goes to the DAO treasury and 2% to the Developers Guild), what does this amount to?
Arbitrum has transformed from a “rent collector” into a “technology stack licensor.”
Second: The fundamentals are strong, but the tokenomics have a major problem.
ARB's circulating supply is approximately 6.6-6.7 billion against a total supply of 10 billion, with unlocks continuing through March 2027. Around 139 million ARB will be unlocked around September 23 (1.4% of the total supply), and another tranche in mid-September adds to the considerable supply-side pressure.
Arbitrum is a highway with traffic rolling in, but the toll booths collect ETH; ARB is merely the highway's “shareholder voting right.” The Robinhood Chain model is changing this narrative, but more Orbit chains need to go live before a qualitative shift can occur.
Third: Macro data suddenly turned, creating short-term pressure.
Today's US August nonfarm payrolls data significantly exceeded expectations: 162,000 new jobs (expected: 55,000), while the unemployment rate held at 4.1% and wage growth was relatively strong. After the data was released, the probability of a rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting rose again, putting risk assets under pressure. Bitcoin fell from around $82,000 to below $80,000, and ARB, as a high-beta asset, followed the decline.
The market had previously priced in a “dovish Fed” to some extent, but the hot data disrupted risk appetite. Next, watch the PPI/CPI releases on September 10-11. If inflation also exceeds expectations, rate-hike expectations will continue to rise, and altcoins will take another hit.
The bulls and bears face off—you decide
On one side:
Robinhood Chain has validated the “technology stack licensing + revenue sharing” model, with DAO revenue continuing to grow
It surged 70% from $0.07 starting in late August, and the medium-term rebound structure remains intact
Partners include LG, Mastercard, and PayPal, accelerating ecosystem expansion
$0.12-$0.125 is the POC demand zone, which has been validated multiple times
On the other side:
139 million ARB unlocks on September 23 (1.4% of the total supply), creating supply pressure
ARB has no fee-burning mechanism, resulting in weak value capture
Nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, rate-hike probability rose, and the macro environment turned hawkish
If BTC falls below $80,000, ARB could take another 10-20% hit
Upside resistance: $0.135-$0.138 → $0.142-$0.146 (previous high) → $0.15-$0.18
Downside support: $0.124-$0.127 → $0.12 → $0.11-$0.105
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Watch for stabilization signals in the $0.122-$0.126 range (a high-volume decline that stops, or a hammer/engulfing pattern), and cautiously enter a long with a small position, setting a stop-loss below $0.118. First target: $0.135-$0.138; second target: $0.142-$0.146.
Swing traders:
If it breaks below $0.122 on volume and the 4H candle confirms the move at close, cautiously enter a short with a small position, targeting $0.112-$0.115 and setting a stop-loss at $0.130. If it holds $0.124-$0.127 and rebounds on volume, go long on the pullback, targeting $0.15-$0.18. Before the September 23 unlock, pay attention to supply pressure and avoid taking on a heavy position and stubbornly holding it.
This ARB pullback is the broader environment cooling, not the logic breaking—
Robinhood Chain has just validated a new model, DAO revenue continues to grow, and the $0.12-$0.125 support zone remains intact.
At $0.13, the key question is not whether to buy, but whether you have set a stop-loss.
Most people lose money not because they got the direction wrong, but because they got the direction right without setting a stop-loss.
What is your ARB cost basis?
On the September 23 unlock day, will you buy the dip or run?#Gate用户突破6000万 #BTC收复8万美元 #非农就业报告即将揭晓 $BTC $ETH $ARB

Several Bitcoin bull runs over the past ten years
The first round, 2017, surged from $1,000 to $20,000
The second round, 2021, surged from $3,500 to $69,000
The third round, 2024, surged from $15,000 to $125,000
The fourth round, from 2026 to 2028, is estimated to surge from $58,000 to $300,000💲

The market is doing well, and all the “teachers” are getting fired up on X as well. What I’m saying is that even the bitcoin-native bear market has ended. The crypto market has transitioned from a bear market to a bull market, and we’re now in the early stages of the bull market. Next up is going to be a spectacular major bull market! But remember, the most people get wiped out not in bear markets, but in bull markets.

Gold at $4,470—are you willing to bet on it?
Look at the surface first: a 200-point rebound, but 4,500 remains impassable.
Two weeks ago, gold quickly rallied from the 4,280-4,300 lows, rebounding more than 200 points. Yesterday, Fed Governor Waller struck a dovish tone, and gold prices rose another 2% in a single day, but they lost their nerve upon reaching the 4,490-4,511 resistance zone and are now hovering around 4,470. The 24-hour trading range is only $30, a typical sign that neither bulls nor bears dare act ahead of the data. But once the nonfarm payrolls data is released at 8:30 tonight, instant volatility of 50-100 points will be routine.
First: July's nonfarm payrolls already delivered one shock. Will tonight see a repeat?
July nonfarm payrolls came in at -23k, leaving the market stunned. Gold instantly surged from below 4,400 to above 4,600, gaining 200 points in just a few hours.
Tonight's forecast is for 55,000-58k new jobs, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%.
Looks fine? But you need to know this—the market was already traumatized by July's -23k. Any figure below 30,000-40k will be interpreted as a “labor market collapse,” sending gold straight up.
Second: Gold's fundamentals are much stronger than you think.
Gold has pulled back 20% from the 5,595 high. But look at the underlying logic:
Central-bank gold buying shows no sign of stopping (can you believe China's central bank has bought gold for 18 consecutive months?). Global geopolitical uncertainty continues to increase. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is at 4.76% and has already fallen from its high—the opportunity cost of holding gold is declining.
Gold is still up 25% year over year. This is not a bear market; it is halftime in a super bull market.
Third: A signal has emerged on the technical front that must be taken seriously.
After the V-shaped rebound from 4,280-4,300, gold has closed higher for two consecutive days. RSI has risen from oversold territory to around 50, while bearish MACD momentum has clearly weakened—the rebound structure is complete and only needs one final push.
At 4,470, gold is only $20 away from the 4,490-4,511 breakout zone and $64 away from 4,534.
In other words, as long as tonight's NFP provides a reason, gold can surge another 100 points at any time.
Bulls vs. bears—you decide
Weak NFP (<30,000-40k, or a rise in the unemployment rate):
September rate-hike probability plunges → Treasury yields fall → the dollar weakens → gold surges straight to 4,534-4,580+
This is the market's current “asymmetry”—bad news has a much greater bullish impact on gold than good news has a bearish impact
Strong NFP (>80k with sticky wages):
Rate-hike expectations return → the dollar rebounds → gold retests 4,380-4,320
But don't forget—geopolitical risks and central-bank gold buying are waiting underneath, so 4,300 will not break easily
Trading strategy
Before the data (now-20:30):
Trade lightly within the 4,460-4,495 range, selling high and buying low; chase only after a breakout.
After the data (20:30):
Weak NFP (below 30,000-40k):
Go long on a break above 4,495-4,511, with a stop-loss below 4,460
Take half off at 4,534, then look toward 4,580-4,700 (before the FOMC)
Strong NFP (above 80k):
Lightly test shorts on a break below 4,450-4,460, with a stop-loss above 4,495
Target 4,380-4,320; take profit near 4,300 and reverse into longs
XAU tonight is a huge gamble on the “expectation gap”—
When July nonfarm payrolls came in at -23k, 99% of people thought “gold's run is over,” but gold immediately surged from below 4,400 to above 4,600. If another surprise hits tonight, we could see another 200-point bullish candle.
At 4,470, which side are you betting on?
Every pullback in a gold bull market is money being handed to those who understand it.
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls—are you going long or short?
We'll know at 8:30!#Gate用户突破6000万 #BTC收复8万美元 #非农就业报告即将揭晓 $BTC $XAU $XAUT

Brothers who regularly subscribe to ChatGPT and Claude know that other U cards work fine for everyday spending, but when it comes to AI membership subscriptions, they’re often blocked by merchant risk controls, making payments fail and causing a lot of hassle. Gate’s upgraded Gate Card solves this problem directly. Here’s my experience using it: the card-opening process is very simple—the simplest U card out there, without a doubt.