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#我的七夕交易分享 Spot gold breaks above the $4,400 per ounce level
On the 17th Beijing time, spot gold fluctuated upward, returning above $4,400 per ounce during the session and rising more than 0.5%. Meanwhile, international oil prices both edged higher, with Brent crude approaching $89 per barrel.
The latest data showed that U.S. retail sales fell 0.6% month-on-month in July, the largest monthly decline since May 2025, versus expectations for a 0.1% increase and a previous 0.2% increase; core retail sales fell 0.3% month-on-month, versus expectations for a 0.20% increase and a previous 0.20% decline.
Traders reduced their bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more than once before mid-2027.
A report released recently by UBS said that gold prices could surge to $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2027.
UBS said that although short-term market conditions remain volatile, multiple long-term favorable factors have laid a solid foundation for the logic behind gold’s medium- to long-term rise.
On the news front, according to a report by Iran’s Tasnim News Agency on the 16th, Hatami, commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, said that the United States must not enter the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Strait of Hormuz in the future. Regarding U.S. President Trump’s recent remark that “‘after defeating Iran,’ he would soon ‘declare the Strait of Hormuz U.S. territory,’” Hatami said the statement “is nonsense, because this is Iran, and the guardians will break your legs.”
GF Securities Research said in an analysis early on the 17th that gold pricing is relatively favorable in the short term, but potential uncertainties and constraints remain. First, the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike from October to December cannot yet be ruled out, and the probability implied by FedWatch is currently not low; second, under the previous plan, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet working group will submit a report by the end of 2026, when expectations of balance sheet reduction may affect liquidity and confidence in the U.S. dollar; third, geopolitical tensions remain subject to repeated fluctuations.
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