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#Gate直通IPO第三期Anthropic Is Anthropic’s $1.4 trillion market cap worth it?
A $1.4 trillion market cap isn’t exactly outrageous, but it’s only justifiable on a stretch. It’s supported by fast revenue growth, not profits already earned at that scale.
Why it has some support
· Revenue is growing rapidly: Annualized revenue was about $81 billion at the end of October, up about 47% quarter over quarter in Q3.
· The revenue multiple isn’t high: $1.4 trillion divided by annualized revenue is about 17x, compared with about 60x for SpaceX.
· Institutional demand is strong: The IPO was about six times oversubscribed, with most shares bought by large institutions.
· Higher than its May private valuation: Its post-money valuation in May was about $965 billion; on a fully diluted basis, it rose about 46% in six months.
Where the case falls short
· Growth has slowed significantly: Quarter-over-quarter growth was about 144% in Q2, falling to about 47% in Q3[5].
· Compute bills are largely locked in: Purchase and lease commitments total about $895.4 billion, most of which must be paid “whether used or not.”
· Revenue could shrink at any time: 80% of revenue is usage-based, so customers can use less; compute costs, however, are contractually committed in advance.
· Profits are not yet stable: Q3 operating loss was $567 million, and the full-year net loss is about $23.3 billion.
· Shareholders have no say: The public will never hold majority voting rights, so the valuation deserves a governance discount.
What the market thinks
· Morningstar: Considers it undervalued, with a fair value of about $1.7 trillion, though its reasonable range spans from $500 billion to $3 trillion.
· HSBC: Considers around $1 trillion a more comfortable valuation.
· Huxiu: After discounting for profitability, revenue attribution, and voting rights, values it at $1.11 trillion–$1.48 trillion.
So, for $1.4 trillion to hold up, revenue must continue growing rapidly and gradually spread out the compute bills. If growth slows significantly, the valuation could easily be revised downward.