If you want to determine whether a company has room to grow, the simplest method is to see if major brokerages have provided target price forecasts for it. If 10 or more brokerages have set target prices, calculate the average target price and compare it with the current target price to estimate the potential upside. What are the benefits of this approach? It’s not surprising if a company is favored, but if many large institutions are optimistic about it, the probability of being wrong is low. These institutions have conducted extensive research and analysis early on, making full use of their own research, manpower, and information resources (saving retail investors the difficulty of finding targets and conducting research initially), and it’s easy for institutions to form a consensus. Let’s analyze Amazon using this method, a global e-commerce and cloud computing giant.
First Tier: Top global investment banks (focusing on Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley)
Goldman Sachs: $275 Buy, on April 14th, lowered from $280
JPMorgan: $330 Overweight, on April 30th, raised from $280, a 17.9% increase
Morgan Stanley: $330 Overweight, on April 30th, raised from $300, based on AWS exceeding growth expectations
Citigroup: $325 Buy, on May 4th, raised from $285, expecting continued acceleration of AWS growth
Bank of America: $310 Buy, on May 4th, raised from $298, Q1 earnings beat expectations
Second Tier: Well-known international institutions
UBS: $333 Buy, on April 30th, raised from $304
Mizuho: $300 Buy, on April 30th, raised target price
Third Tier: Boutique investment banks
Evercore ISI: $315 Outperform, on April 30th, raised from $285
Piper Sandler: $315 Overweight, on April 30th, raised from $260
KeyBanc: $325 Buy, raised to $325 in late April
CICC: $305 Buy, on May 4th, raised from $292, a 4% increase, optimistic about AWS growth momentum
DA Davidson: $250 Neutral, on April 30th, raised from $175
Currently, Amazon’s stock price is around $274. The first tier’s average target price is $314 (upside of 15%), the second tier’s average target price is $316 (upside of 15%), and the third tier’s average target price is $302 (upside of 10%). Taking a rough average, say $310, patience is needed until Amazon reaches $310. (Currently holding twice the ETF-AMZU, patiently waiting for the price to rise from 45 yuan to 58 yuan, with an estimated profit of about $5,500–6,000)
Let’s analyze Amazon’s revenue streams:
1. Global e-commerce, accounting for 60%, the core business
2. Amazon Web Services (AWS), accounting for 18%, the world’s leading cloud provider (the earliest in cloud, industry pioneer, technological ceiling), much larger than Microsoft (second) and Google Cloud (third)
3. E-commerce advertising, accounting for 10%, involving seller bid rankings, with very high gross margins and double-digit growth
4. Subscriptions + hardware + entertainment, accounting for 12%, such as Prime Video, Kindle, Echo/Alexa smart home, Twitch streaming, Kuiper satellite internet project
Therefore, when looking at Amazon, on the surface it’s the world’s largest online shopping platform, but internally it’s a giant in cloud computing and AI infrastructure—using low-cost e-commerce to attract users, and making huge profits from cloud and advertising.
Differences between Amazon, Nvidia, and Google:
Nvidia only makes GPUs, aiming to train AI; my card is the best for AI, just selling shovels.
Amazon is the landlord of AI data centers and computing power factories, not building large models itself but earning money by renting out computing power.
Microsoft, tied to OpenAI, is the leading face of AI, a leader in AI applications, providing AI services (needed by both individuals and enterprises), with quick deployment and compelling stories.
This article only records personal investment thoughts and does not constitute any investment advice. The market carries risks; invest cautiously.