The Fed is set to meet on rates again this week, and $BTC is still hovering around $80k. Not raising rates this time may not even count as good news.
First, the market: BTC is around $80.2k today, with a 24-hour low of $79,809. The $80k level is once again being fiercely contested.
Now, the Fed: it will announce its rate decision on October 28. The current rate is 3.75%–4.00%, and the market generally expects no change this time.
Here’s the interesting part.
In Reuters’ latest survey, 94 of 100 economists expect no rate hike in October, but all 100 expect another hike in December.
In other wo

Last night, there didn’t seem to be much trading@404_Protocol
There’s a bit of profit now; one account can run it 10 times
After gas, each account is currently still making 3u profit
But keep an eye on the 1.28e-6 level; there’s about 1BNB of buy volume left
This thing is a bit slow to trade. I use a Grok bot; just have it finish the trades for you and sell
The other agents seem a bit troublesome
Link:

What? The Fed isn't hiking rates this week?
[The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged this week is 90%]
According to CME FedWatch:
The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged this week is 90%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 10%.
By December, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged is 23.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 68.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike is 7.3%.
#美联储利率决议即将公布

I opened a long on Bitcoin near 800. A bullish structure has formed here, but I don’t dare take too much profit—I’ll take a small bite and see if it can reach 805-810.
The trend is still downward. Watch Thursday: the Fed probably won’t raise rates. If the outcome meets expectations, the market should rally, but not by much.
‍$BTC

Many people treat a “golden cross” of moving averages as an entry signal, but overlook whether the moving averages themselves have flattened and whether price has held steady. This is the most common misconception: treating a moving-average crossover as direction rather than as a market state.
Take $BN as an example: the current price is 740.85, with MA5=740.044 slightly below MA20=740.919. The two lines are nearly converging and their slopes are flattening, indicating a range-bound market rather than a trending one. RSI=51.3 is near the midpoint, while the MACD histogram=-0.349 is negative b

I’m going to sleep. I’ll check when I wake up to see whether it’s a pleasant surprise or a nasty one. Resistance overhead is still at 805–807. This kind of slow bleed is pretty painful; it’s even turned yesterday’s 803 floor into resistance... That gives us 803, 805–807, and 811–813. Without unexpected bullish news to drive things higher, it won’t be easy to move up.
I don’t think there’s much of a problem with opening a position here. The lower edge of the downtrend channel on the daily chart is around 788–785, more than 1,000 points below here. You could open a position and add a little if i

in another month or so, we should have our weekly kumo twist.
in 4-5 months we should be trading above the cloud.
ideally, we start trending after that.
wait szn.
cc @CryptoSays

How many of you managed to get in? The power outage kept me from doing my thing, so I went back to sleep. If there’s no fighting today, the market still favors longs. Keep an eye on the news

10.26 BTC Analysis
BTC is currently consolidating and recovering at low levels. After testing the lows yesterday, the price has slowly climbed back above 80k. The lower Bollinger Band has flattened, and short-term downward momentum has eased somewhat, but overhead resistance remains heavy. A sustained hold above 819 could point to new highs. The 4-hour candles are moving slowly, with each one taking 4 hours to close. The most likely scenario today is a dull stretch of consolidation and recovery. Wait patiently before entering a trade, and exit after capturing a swing of a few hundred points.
T

Is South Korea's virtual asset tax headed for a fourth postponement?
The Blue House's response is rather telling: it's under review, no decision has been made, but the direction is toward a delay.
The current schedule is to begin in January 2027, with the portion of annual income exceeding 2.5 million won taxed at 22%, including local tax.
This is already the fourth discussion of a postponement; the first three all resulted in delays.
The reasons are straightforward: tax collection preparations are lagging, young people are strongly opposed, and there are fairness concerns over domestic and ov

The Jerk’s Take on CL U.S. Crude Oil 10.26
Over the weekend, CL hit 105 right on the nose. It’s now pulled back to the 5-day moving average, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see it look for support around the 10-day moving average before another big bullish candle, as the regional situation changes.
This is just the Jerk’s take, so don’t take it as gospel. But data often don’t lie. The Jerk’s strategy is still to trim U.S. tech stocks when oil prices fall. Better to have cash on hand than be caught short, right?
For CL, keep an eye on support around 100. If the U.S. says it’s going to act, it’

The iPhone Duo has fallen below its launch price…
Buyback prices for the 256GB and 512GB models are already below the prices on the official website

Gold on 10/26:
On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are opening downward, and the price has broken below the lower band. Gold is currently trading below the lower Bollinger Band, indicating a clear bearish trend, with the middle band acting as resistance overhead.
As for KDJ, the J value has entered negative oversold territory. Short-term downside momentum has eased somewhat, creating potential for a technical rebound, but the indicator has not formed a golden cross, and the broader trend remains weak.
Trading recommendation:
Go short at 4010-3990, target 3870-3850, stop at 4020
(For refere

$SOXX
There’s a very clear double top pattern. This setup could be used to hurt retails

Scumbag Watch: CL U.S. Crude Oil 10.26
CL hit 105 right on the mark over the weekend and is now pulling back to the 5-day moving average. It may seek support at the 10-day moving average, followed by another big bullish candle (as the regional situation changes).
This is just the scumbag's projection, so don't take it as fact, but the data often doesn't lie. The scumbag's strategy remains to trim U.S. tech stocks when oil prices fall. Having supplies on hand keeps you calm, right?
For CL, watch support around 100. The U.S. can strike whenever it says it will, though the situation could also ch

$XAUT 10.26 Gold Outlook
From the chart, after peaking following an earlier surge, the monthly chart has continued to retreat. Gold is below the Bollinger midline, bearish MACD momentum continues to expand, and the previous bullish trend has ended. Prices are under pressure in the medium term, with heavy overhead selling pressure and the center of gravity continuing to move lower
On smaller timeframes, prices are consolidating weakly at low levels, but the Bollinger Bands are opening downward and moving averages are exerting resistance at every level. Any rebound should first be viewed as an o

$SNDK Three major catalysts are about to hit back-to-back: the Fed rate decision, Microsoft earnings, and Amazon earnings. Everyone is betting their cloud businesses and AI investment figures will beat expectations. If results are strong, they could fuel a rebound in tech stocks, giving memory chip stocks that were unfairly sold off, like SanDisk and SK Hynix, a chance to ride a recovery rally. Bullish! ⬇️⬇️⬇️$SKHYNIX Stock earnings season