Gate on-chain observation ( on October 13, ): Mining company MARA buys the dip of 400 BTC; Huang Licheng "hard-headed" opens long again.

The on-chain monitoring over the past 24 hours shows a significant capital reconstruction after intense fluctuations in the market: on one hand, the on-chain dollar liquidity has been replenished (USDC has been minted on the Solana chain), with institutions and mining companies continuing Margin Replenishment of BTC and ETH during the pullback; on the other hand, some whales and high-leverage accounts have been frequently buying low and selling high during the fluctuations, leading to substantial short-term volatility. Overall, institutional buying of mainstream assets is currently in a tug-of-war with retail investors/leverage risk control, characterized by high volatility in the short term, but is expected to gradually stabilize in the medium term with institutional inflows.

The following are important on-chain developments from October 12-13:

BTC Market Dynamics

· USDC Treasury has added the minting of 250 million USDC on the Solana blockchain, temporarily increasing on-chain USD liquidity, which may alleviate liquidity gaps during flash crashes.

· The "BTC OG Whale" transferred 100 BTC (approximately 11.49 million USD) to a CEX after recently profiting over 185 million USD from a sharp decline, suspected of preparing to cash out part of it; this address still holds a short position in BTC, with current fluctuation earnings of about 4 million USD.

· The mining company MARA Holdings, holding 52,850 BTC, repurchased 400 BTC (approximately $46.31 million) through FalconX, indicating a clear pullback buying action by institutions.

· Whale 0x5D2F did not close the position in time after turning from loss to profit during the sharp decline, and has since given back about 4.8 million USD with the rebound, indicating that the risk of high-leverage shorts remains significant amidst repeated fluctuations.

Analysis: The BTC market is temporarily supported by the buying behavior of institutions and miners, but there is a coexistence of Whale cashing out and high leverage pullback. If institutional buying continues, stability is expected in the short to medium term; conversely, Whale cashing out and fluctuations in derivative positions will still amplify bearish impacts.

ETH Market Dynamics

· During the crash, an anonymous hacker sold 8,638 ETH (approximately 32.5 million USD) and then repurchased 7,816 ETH at a higher price of 4,159 USD during the rebound, resulting in a net loss of about 820 ETH (approximately 3.4 million USD) due to "buy low, sell high".

· The whale that previously held a heavy long position in ETH with 25x leverage has recovered its capital during the rebound, currently having an unrealized profit of about 8 million USD and a total profit of 5.8 million USD.

· A wallet associated with Christopher Heymann, co-founder of 1kx Fund, deposited 2 million USDC into HyperLiquid and opened a long position on ENA with 10x leverage, indicating that institutional or quasi-institutional funds have re-entered long positions after the pullback.

· A certain high-frequency retail investor who bought low and bottom-fished used a large amount of DAI for repurchase, resulting in net losses, highlighting the costs and risks for speculative accounts during fluctuations.

Analysis: ETH continues to be the core of capital games: institutions and some whales are replenishing their positions during the pullback, while hackers and high-leverage short-term trading are intensifying fluctuations. If institutions continue to enter with leverage/spot and maintain key price levels ( ~4,000 USD ), ETH is expected to transition from fluctuations to a steady rebound; however, if high-leverage positions face sudden selling pressure again, it will lead to amplified pullbacks.

SOL / High-Risk Tokens and Leverage Dynamics

· A large holder (address starting with 0x7BE) deposited 8 million USDC into Hyperliquid and placed two TWAP buy orders, planning to purchase 122,000 HYPE, indicating that the whale is attempting to buy low.

· Multiple wallets related to 1kx, celebrities, or institutions have built positions in high-risk tokens (such as ENA, CREAM, etc.) again after the pullback, and there has been high leverage opening (10–25x) behavior, with increased participation from the speculative side.

· "Mahji" Huang Licheng uses ultra-high leverage to position in BTC/ETH/HYPE (40x, 25x, 10x respectively) and makes a small purchase of CREAM in the spot market, demonstrating the amplifying effect of personal/celebrity positions on market sentiment.

Analysis: High-risk tokens have become targets for whales and leveraged funds trying to capture during this round of fluctuations, with capital games being more intense in the short term. Whales are gradually building positions while high leverage exists in the speculative sector, causing the volatility of these tokens to far exceed that of mainstream assets. Those chasing the rise should be cautious of pullback risks.

Other Important On-Chain Liquidity and Events

· A large number of institutions and whales are active during fluctuations: mining companies and institutions are buying BTC, some large whales are repurchasing ETH, and hackers are engaging in "buy low, sell high" behavior after selling, all of which reflect that the market has entered a reallocation phase after severe turbulence.

· Multiple on-chain events related to leverage and liquidation (specific liquidation list not listed here) indicate that the derivatives market is still an amplifier of sentiment.

Analysis: The rapid rotation of capital indicates a clear stratification among market participants: institutions/mining companies are positioning for the medium to long term with spot and large positions; while speculative/leverage entities are entering and exiting frequently in the short term. The game between the two will continue to create significant short-term fluctuations.

Market Overview and Trend Analysis

Institutions and mining companies: Continuous buying on dips

The continuous buying of MARA, the incremental accumulation by institutional whales, and the minting of USDC collectively indicate that institutions have not exited during the pullback; instead, they are taking advantage of the fluctuations for Margin Replenishment. This provides important support for the medium-term stabilization of prices. Whales and High Leverage: Short-Term Volatility Amplifiers

Whales cashing out, short covering, and high-leverage operations by celebrities/speculators may trigger local chain reactions in the coming days, especially when market confidence has not fully recovered. The "buy low - rebound - buy low again" cycle of ETH

The on-chain data shows that there are successful high-leverage long positions that have recouped their costs, as well as entities that were forced to sell low and buy high at a loss, indicating that the market has entered a high-frequency capital game stage. If institutional buying continues, ETH is expected to emerge from a phase bottom; otherwise, risks remain high. Improvements in stablecoins and liquidity

The large issuance of USDC on Solana has alleviated concerns about liquidity breakage in the short term, providing more buffer for market making and trading. High-risk tokens: opportunities and pitfalls coexist

Tokens such as HYPE, ENA, and CREAM are showing short-term trading opportunities under the influence of whale buying and celebrity promotion, but the concentration of chips and high leverage significantly increases the risk of pullback. Investors should exercise stricter control over their positions and stop-losses on these assets.

Conclusion

On-chain data from October 12-13 shows that the market has transitioned from a pure panic selling phase to a panic "panic liquidation + institutional bottom-fishing" panic phase — the buying behavior of institutions and mining companies provides price support, but at the same time, high leverage and short-term speculation from whales will still cause significant fluctuations. Short-term traders can seize the opportunities brought by high volatility under the condition of clear stop-loss; hedging and risk control remain the primary strategies in the current market. Long-term investors can focus on the targets that institutions continue to buy (BTC, ETH) as a medium-term allocation direction.