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#我的七夕交易分享 U.S. Stock Market Outlook: Sector Rotation Signals Are Clear
Based on today’s market signals, the U.S. stock market is undergoing a clear phase of sector rotation—capital is gradually flowing from large-cap technology stocks and AI computing leaders that have posted huge gains over the past two years into second-tier AI infrastructure sectors such as memory, optical communications, and semiconductor equipment.
Three Signals Worth Watching
The simultaneous high-volume breakouts of the three major memory chip companies suggest that the industry cycle may turn earlier than expected; expectations for mass production of 800G/1.6T products in the optical communications sector are being realized, improving order visibility across the industry chain; technology giants have broadly pulled back, but the declines have been limited, and the market is still digesting valuation pressure from the Q2 earnings season.
From a technical perspective, the Nasdaq has been consolidating between 26000 and 27000 points for more than three weeks. The short-term moving average system (5-day, 10-day, and 20-day) has begun to converge, while the MACD indicator is hovering near the zero line, indicating that a directional move is technically imminent.
If the index can break above the 27000 round-number level on heavy volume over the next several trading days, it could open up further upside; conversely, a break below the 26000 support level could trigger a larger correction.
Key events to watch for the rest of this week include July retail sales data before Tuesday’s market open, the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes on Wednesday, and initial jobless claims on Thursday.
These data points will directly affect the market’s assessment of the probability of a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, thereby determining the sustainability and depth of this round of sector rotation. Federal funds futures pricing currently shows that the market assigns about a 65% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, down from 72% a week ago.$NAS100 ‌