Recently, I’ve been researching on-chain prediction markets and noticed something interesting: football match odds can actually be broken down into various independent events for trading, such as win/loss, over/under, and whether both teams score. Some people feed win rates, draw probabilities, and other data into models to conduct probability arbitrage, generating returns that are considerably more stable than simply buying coins. Does this count as another form of quantitative trading? I think it’s quite similar to on-chain funding rate arbitrage: both exploit market pricing discrepancies. O

Whether BTC has bottomed, honestly, no one can say for sure. But one phenomenon is worth watching: after each wave of panic selling subsides, on-chain activity instead becomes very quiet, with fewer large transfers, indicating that selling pressure is easing. At this level, the risk of chasing shorts is actually greater than that of buying, because even the slightest positive news could send bears scrambling to cover. But don't get me wrong—this is not telling you to buy the dip; position management and cash flow are what matter for survival.

I came across a joke: Spider-Man’s mentor is actually Peter Parker himself—the Marvel universe has always portrayed growth as self-iteration. But the rules of the on-chain world are harsher: there’s no script and no mentor, and every address pays for its own choices. Tuition can be paid with luck, but whether you graduate depends entirely on your understanding.