Weekly Long-Term Analysis
Last week, due to the sudden positive impact of U.S. Treasury buybacks, the crypto market instantly heated up and liquidated most short positions. Bitcoin rose from $64k to around $80k, while Ethereum rose from $1,900 to $2,500.
So, has the bull market really arrived? Can Bitcoin return to $120k? Can Ethereum rise to $4,000 again?
If the Federal Reserve is willing to continue cutting interest rates, the above could naturally happen.
However, short-term buybacks of U.S. Treasuries cannot instantly resolve the enormous overall size of the U.S. Treasury debt.
Oil-driven inflation is still affecting the Federal Reserve's decisions, and no definitive ceasefire news has emerged from Iran.
As long as the inflation problem remains unresolved, even if the Federal Reserve does not choose to raise interest rates, it will only remain on hold.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are now testing key resistance levels. I believe chasing long positions from the highs is unwise. Key inflation PCE and CPI data will be released in the coming weeks, and judging from current oil prices, these two figures should not be as favorable as expected. If this triggers a market pullback, those looking to resume spot accumulation can add to their positions around $71k for Bitcoin and around $2,100 for Ethereum.
What can be confirmed is that this rise is a clear reversal signal from a bear market to a bull market. However, we still need to give the market a two-week observation period. Many people believe that the four-year crypto cycle should bottom in October this year. I have said several times that this cycle can only serve as a reference and cannot be fully trusted. Ultimately, I informed everyone that spot operations should begin two months earlier. Even though we did not catch the absolute bottom, we still used a quarter of our position to catch this market move. Although there are some regrets, they are understandable.

Reports portraying Warsh as hawkish will mislead everyone. My students and I listened to his entire speech in the office, and overall it was neutral to slightly dovish.
But the market, or Bitcoin, fell during his speech, making it look hawkish and as if it would plunge. I was waiting in the office to go long, but it moved too fast; with only the 1-minute chart, it was impossible to see the structure or signals, so I could only try to enter at the levels I had planned in advance. I entered at 788 and was stopped out, then entered at 78444 with a profit-protecting stop.
After the speech ended, my students saw reports calling it hawkish. I said the garbage reports were misleading retail traders, then continued adding to my long position at 78628. I told them to wait and see—it would soon pull back to the starting point at 795—and then it did.
I emphasized that when news hits, the market will mislead us, so we must be able to distinguish things for ourselves. The reason I stay up late listening to Federal Reserve meetings and various speeches is to compare the content of the speeches with the news coverage and see how the market makers harvest retail traders. My many years of accumulated experience were not gained overnight; they came from years of hard work and staying up late until I developed an instinctive judgment. During the speech, they said in the office that gold had fallen and Bitcoin had fallen. I said, “You didn’t even buy gold, so why are you watching gold? Focus on Bitcoin, find support levels, and be ready to enter at any time to make money.”
The weekend is range-bound again. If it cannot move higher, the probability of a decline next week is high. Bitcoin did not suffer a sharp drop this time either, but its popularity is already much lower in Hong Kong than it was in the United States. At the 2024 Bitcoin conference, Trump attended; in 2025, Vice President JD Vance attended. This Hong Kong Bitcoin conference was clearly lower-profile.