#HYPE续创历史新高 HYPE (Hyperliquid) reached a new all-time high (approximately $83) before facing a major token unlock on August 29 (approximately 14.18 million tokens worth approximately $1.2 billion), putting the market to the test over whether it can continue breaking higher after reaching a new high. Considering market fundamentals, capital flows, and technical factors, HYPE has the potential to continue breaking higher, but faces short-term unlock-related selling pressure and the risk of a pullback from elevated levels. The key to a breakout lies in the market’s ability to absorb supply and the continued delivery of the ecosystem’s fundamentals.
I. Positive Factors Supporting Further Breakouts
1. Strong fundamentals and buyback mechanism providing support
As a decentralized derivatives exchange, Hyperliquid has recently generated daily fee revenue of several million dollars, with protocol revenue continuously converted into buyback support for HYPE (the Assistance Fund uses 97%-99% of fee revenue for market buybacks). This “revenue-driven + deflationary” model provides strong intrinsic value support for the token price. If trading volume remains high, buybacks can effectively offset part of the selling pressure.
2. Incremental capital and compliance expectations
Spot HYPE ETFs launched recently by institutions such as Bitwise and 21Shares have brought in incremental institutional capital, while compliance expectations surrounding the U.S. CFTC have given the project a valuation premium. In addition, the sharing of reserve yields generated by USDC’s return to Hyperliquid provides HYPE with additional potential buying demand.
3. Ecosystem expansion and narrative support
Hyperliquid is expanding from simple perpetual contracts into on-chain financial infrastructure such as RWA (real-world assets) and prediction markets. This ecosystem expansion gives it greater growth potential and continues to attract market attention and capital.
4. Market sentiment and short covering
After reaching a new all-time high, if the price can hold key resistance levels such as $84, it could trigger a positive cycle driven by short sellers’ forced liquidations (a short squeeze), providing short-term upward momentum.
II. Risk Factors Limiting Further Breakouts
1. Short-term selling pressure from the large unlock
The major unlock on August 29, some of which involved insiders and early investors, introduced approximately $1.2 billion in potential new selling pressure. Although an unlock does not mean immediate selling, the incentive to cash out increases when prices are high. If the market lacks sufficient buying support, it could trigger sharp short-term volatility or a pullback.
2. Valuation is elevated, with some positive factors already priced in
HYPE has risen sharply over a short period, and its new all-time high has already largely priced in the optimistic narratives surrounding ETF expectations, compliance expectations, and ecosystem expansion, leaving less room for error. If subsequent revenue growth falls short of expectations, or if the broader market (BTC) pulls back, the token price could face significant profit-taking pressure.
3. Technical pullback pressure after reaching a new all-time high
Indicators such as the daily RSI have entered overbought territory, intensifying the battle between bulls and bears at elevated levels. Changes in whale holdings have a significant impact on price, and the price is highly likely to remain range-bound at elevated levels in the short term, with the risk of a spike followed by a pullback requiring caution.
III. Overall Assessment
HYPE has the potential to continue breaking higher over the medium to long term, but it will face significant volatility around the unlock in the short term. If the market can absorb the selling pressure from the unlock and Hyperliquid’s protocol revenue and ecosystem expansion continue to exceed expectations, the token price may resume seeking a breakout direction after digesting the selling pressure. Conversely, if market sentiment weakens or the broader market weighs on it, the token price could face a retracement.
$HYPE
