#沃什首秀美联储利率不变 Bitcoin and Ethereum decline, Federal Reserve hawkish stance suppresses
Bitcoin at $64,430, Ethereum at $1,747.69, down approximately 1.8% and 2.4% respectively over the past 24 hours. The market is mildly declining, with a daily volatility of 3.85%, not drastic, but it has already wiped out the slight rebound from the previous three days. Looking at the past week, Bitcoin's weekly gain remains at 4.65%, but it is falling back from the weekly high towards the middle range, and many haven't even fully reacted to Monday's expectations before the price softened.
The pressure mainly comes from the Federal Reserve at 2 a.m. The committee members unanimously agreed to keep interest rates unchanged, but half of them see a possible rate hike by 2026, and the statement also removed the phrase "will further adjust interest rates."
New Chair Powell directly said that there will be no forward guidance in the future; the dot plot is drawn with a pencil and can be erased. This essentially tells the market: stop guessing, we won't give you stable expectations, and if inflation can't be suppressed, interest rates will not only stay high but may go higher.
Interest rates are the price of money. If money becomes more expensive, the cost of borrowing to trade cryptocurrencies increases, and everyone naturally becomes risk-averse. Risk appetite quickly recedes, and cryptocurrencies fall accordingly.
The market is actually a bit scared. The fear index has dropped to 21, but the funding rates in the derivatives market are still relatively high, indicating some are still holding on stubbornly. However, long positions have been squeezed out significantly, with $440 million liquidated in the past 24 hours—almost 17% more than the previous day. Open interest is also declining, with many traders taking losses and exiting. Long and short positions are nearly evenly matched, with no clear dominance, and spot buying has also noticeably slowed, as no one wants to take the risk at this moment.
In the coming days, the market will digest this hawkish shift. The crypto-related stocks in the US stock market actually rose nicely last night, with Robinhood up 12% and Coinbase up 2%, indicating that the traditional financial world still has interest in the crypto sector, even though funds haven't yet flowed directly into the crypto space. The macro headwinds haven't eased, and cryptocurrencies are unlikely to rise strongly on their own. In the short term, there may be some back-and-forth, and it will depend on policy expectations stabilizing first.
Bitcoin at $64,430, Ethereum at $1,747.69, down approximately 1.8% and 2.4% respectively over the past 24 hours. The market is mildly declining, with a daily volatility of 3.85%, not drastic, but it has already wiped out the slight rebound from the previous three days. Looking at the past week, Bitcoin's weekly gain remains at 4.65%, but it is falling back from the weekly high towards the middle range, and many haven't even fully reacted to Monday's expectations before the price softened.
The pressure mainly comes from the Federal Reserve at 2 a.m. The committee members unanimously agreed to keep interest rates unchanged, but half of them see a possible rate hike by 2026, and the statement also removed the phrase "will further adjust interest rates."
New Chair Powell directly said that there will be no forward guidance in the future; the dot plot is drawn with a pencil and can be erased. This essentially tells the market: stop guessing, we won't give you stable expectations, and if inflation can't be suppressed, interest rates will not only stay high but may go higher.
Interest rates are the price of money. If money becomes more expensive, the cost of borrowing to trade cryptocurrencies increases, and everyone naturally becomes risk-averse. Risk appetite quickly recedes, and cryptocurrencies fall accordingly.
The market is actually a bit scared. The fear index has dropped to 21, but the funding rates in the derivatives market are still relatively high, indicating some are still holding on stubbornly. However, long positions have been squeezed out significantly, with $440 million liquidated in the past 24 hours—almost 17% more than the previous day. Open interest is also declining, with many traders taking losses and exiting. Long and short positions are nearly evenly matched, with no clear dominance, and spot buying has also noticeably slowed, as no one wants to take the risk at this moment.
In the coming days, the market will digest this hawkish shift. The crypto-related stocks in the US stock market actually rose nicely last night, with Robinhood up 12% and Coinbase up 2%, indicating that the traditional financial world still has interest in the crypto sector, even though funds haven't yet flowed directly into the crypto space. The macro headwinds haven't eased, and cryptocurrencies are unlikely to rise strongly on their own. In the short term, there may be some back-and-forth, and it will depend on policy expectations stabilizing first.
