Why Can a Strategy Perform Well in Backtests Yet Continuously Lose Money in Live Trading?

A trading strategy may have a high win rate in backtests, a consistently rising equity curve, and a seemingly acceptable maximum drawdown.

But once it is put into the market, the results can be completely different: trading costs keep adding up, actual execution prices deviate from expectations, and several trades in a row lose money. The once-impressive equity curve gradually loses credibility.

Where exactly does the problem lie?

Backtesting evaluates a strategy’s performance under specific historica

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📢 Today's Hot Topic | US October CPI Beats Forecasts
October CPI rose 0.4% MoM vs. 0.3% expected, while core CPI climbed 0.3%, also above forecasts. Will the Fed turn more hawkish?

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Understand DeFi Protocols: Don’t Just Focus on APY—Where Do Returns Come From, and Who Bears the Risk?

In DeFi (decentralized finance), one question is easy to overlook: when a protocol advertises an attractive annual percentage yield, where exactly does that yield come from?

APY is simply a way of displaying results; it does not, on its own, prove that a protocol is worth participating in.

To assess whether a DeFi protocol is sustainable, consider these four aspects.

1. Where do the returns come from?

Returns may come from interest paid by borrowers, trading fees, liquidity incentives, o

Understand DeFi Protocols—Don’t Just Focus on APY: Where Does the Yield Come From, and Who Bears the Risk?

In DeFi (decentralized finance), one question that’s easy to overlook is: when a protocol advertises an attractive annual percentage yield, where exactly does that yield come from?

APY is just a way of presenting the result; it does not, on its own, prove that a protocol is worth participating in.

To assess whether a DeFi protocol is sustainable, you can start by looking at these four areas.

I. Where does the yield come from?

Yield may come from interest paid by borrowers, trading fe

Take profit on these two trades, keep a core position, and move the stop-loss to protect profits.

#美国10月CPI全面超预期 #每周来晒 The Fed doesn’t need to “turn hawkish”; it only needs to maintain a hawkish stance.

I. There are three levels to “turning hawkish,” and the market has only priced in the first
First level: a 25-basis-point hike in December. The probability is 88.5%, already fully priced in. This isn’t turning hawkish; it’s confirmation.
Second level: a one-off 50-basis-point hike in December. The probability jumped from 0% before the release to 11.5%. This is a real “hawkish turn,” and it’s also the line Waller drew himself just hours before the data: a core monthly increase of 0.3% or hi

Why Can Long Positions Still Lose Money When the Funding Rate Is Positive?

In crypto perpetual futures trading, many people see a positive funding rate and assume the market is bullish, meaning holding a long position should make it easier to profit. But the funding rate reflects the payment mechanism between longs and shorts in the futures market; it does not guarantee that prices will rise.

First, a positive funding rate does not mean prices will necessarily rise. A positive funding rate usually means longs pay funding fees to shorts, but prices can still be affected by spot selling pressu

Why does setting a stop-loss too close make it easy to get repeatedly stopped out?

Have you ever experienced this?

After buying, the price dips slightly and triggers your stop-loss. As soon as you exit, the price starts rising again.

The first time, you think it was bad luck.

The second time, you start doubting your judgment.

The third time, you may find yourself wondering: Is the market deliberately targeting my stop-loss?

In fact, many times, the issue is not whether the market is targeting a particular trader, but that the stop-loss level conflicts with normal market fluctuations.

I.

Why can prices still fall when there are plenty of buy orders on the books?

In the cryptocurrency market, many traders see a large stack of buy orders in the order book and assume that prices have strong support. But reality is often the opposite: buy orders look plentiful, yet prices keep falling. Why does this happen?

First, it is essential to distinguish between orders and trades. A buy order is simply a price at which a trader is willing to buy; it does not mean the funds have actually been used to complete a trade. If buy orders are canceled before the price reaches them, what looked li

Why Can’t Stop-Loss Orders Completely Prevent Losses? Understanding Slippage, Liquidity, and Execution Mechanics

In cryptocurrency trading, many people believe that setting a stop-loss will keep losses within a predetermined range. But in actual trading, prices can move rapidly, and stop-loss orders may be filled at a much worse price than expected. Understanding the limitations of stop-loss orders is key to managing risk more effectively.

First, distinguish between the stop trigger price and the final execution price. The trigger price is merely the condition that activates the stop-loss me

☀️ GM! CPI is out. Time to refresh your strategy? 🔄
US CPI rose 0.4%, with core CPI up 0.3%. Both beat forecasts. Nasdaq fell, while BTC dipped below $73K.

📌 Today's topic: What's your next move?
₿ BTC: Hold or reduce risk?
📊 Tech stocks: Any opportunities after the pullback?
⏳ Strategy: Adjust now or wait for PPI?

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Applause for all the guys whose accounts were banned—you made an indelible contribution to Anthropic’s push for a trillion-dollar IPO. 🫡
There’s a dark joke hidden in Anthropic’s recently published prospectus:
In the first three quarters of this year, 5% - 7% of its revenue (about $1.65 billion to $2.31 billion) came from customers who paid and were then “deemed to have violated the rules” and banned.
And speaking of bans, how much of that “hard-earned money” came from users in China buying Pro/Max subscriptions and topping up API credits? We all know.
Nothing beats this ultimate business loo

Why Can’t Stop-Loss Orders Completely Prevent Losses? Understanding Slippage, Liquidity, and Execution Mechanics

In cryptocurrency trading, many people believe that setting a stop-loss is enough to keep losses within a predetermined range. But in actual trading, prices can move rapidly, and stop-loss orders may be filled at a worse price than expected. Understanding the limitations of stop-loss orders is essential to managing risk more effectively.

First, distinguish between the stop trigger price and the final execution price. The trigger price is simply the condition that activates the sto

Who says crypto trading is the only kind of financial innovation? Now you can even trade on what Trump will say next!

There was a classic joke in investing: by the time the news comes out, the market has already finished its rally.
Prediction markets offer a whole new way to play: before an event even happens, prices are already reflecting market expectations.
That’s what makes prediction markets so interesting. Users can buy and sell contracts on the outcomes of elections, wars, economic data releases, sports matches, and tech events. Prices not only show how much traders are willing to pay,

Cant help myself... prob market tanks tomorrow to vaporize my contra ass.
Ant IPO price up is at least a short term signal. Still bearish for next ~6 months but fk it a few days out of cash might be fun.
Disclaimer: I am retarded and clearly incompetent.

Hualien, I felt so much warmth this time.
I went to the same café two days in a row.
The young woman remembered me.
She’s such a thoughtful girl.
#taiwan

Don't just focus on ChatGPT! The next real AI competition is about who can sell AI to businesses

If the keyword in the previous phase of AI competition was models, the keyword in the next phase may be enterprise adoption.
Why?
Because models are becoming increasingly capable, and it will be harder to build a competitive moat based solely on the chat experience.
The truly valuable opportunity is embedding AI into companies' day-to-day operations.
For example, having AI automatically handle customer inquiries, generate financial reports, analyze sales data, assist programmers in developing soft

#AnthropicIPOValuationCouldReach1.4T

Anthropic IPO Valuation Could Reach 1.4 Trillion as AI Investment Enters a New Era

Anthropic is increasingly becoming one of the most closely watched companies in the artificial intelligence industry, with discussions surrounding a potential initial public offering and a valuation that could reach 1.4 trillion dollars attracting significant market attention. Such a valuation would place the company among the world's most valuable businesses and represent a major milestone for the AI sector. The discussion matters because it reflects how investors are rea