VM_Crypto

GM crypto and stocks crowd. Friday the 13th, charts don't care 🙃
Wisdom of the Day, Day 10
I used to pick a side on Monday and defend it all week.
Bullish, price breaks the level I said mattered, and I'd find a new reason to stay long. Usually by dropping to a lower timeframe until it looked fine again.
Now the invalidation gets written next to the idea before I take it. Price goes there, the idea is dead. No arguing.
Anyone else catch themselves doing this?

$MSTR
On the chart, this stock and $BTC could potentially form ideal Head and Shoulders patterns.
BUT until the right shoulder takes shape, or we get a strong buy-up in that zone, there's still a chance the setup gets broken✍️

$INTC
On the 1M timeframe, there's a clear Cup and Handle pattern that took 26 years to form, and price is now retesting the support zone.
Globally, $62 and anything lower are ideal spots to enter long positions—I'll revisit this post later🤫

GN. Rough one. Jensen Huang is out at Nvidia and the whole tape felt it.
NVDA was down double digits early, closed -4.3%. S&P and Nasdaq both -0.4% after buying back most of the opening hole. 10y up to 5.13%, Brent near 96, gold -3%.
BTC swept to 71.2k, lowest in about 12 weeks, sitting near 71.5k now. ETH lost 2k for a while. Roughly 750M liquidated in a day, mostly longs.
Cisco and AMAT both beat after the close, green AH.
Tomorrow PPI at 8:30 ET, Bowman and Jefferson speak. NVDA reports Tuesday with an interim CEO, and MSCI drops MSTR on Nov 30.
Still flat. Nothing here interests me on the

GM crypto and stocks crowd ☀️
Wisdom of the Day, Day 9
For years I cut winners way faster than losers.
Up 1R and my hands start sweating, so I close it. Down 1R and suddenly I'm "patient".
What helped was taking a partial at the first target and trailing the rest. The PnL tab stays hidden while it runs.

GN. Stocks got their bounce today, crypto mostly sat and watched.
S&P +1.3% to 7,619, Nasdaq +1.6%, CoreWeave up almost 25% after the beat and raise. Bonds were shut for Veterans Day and flow felt thin, so I'm not reading much into it yet.
BTC still parked near 74.4k, ETH around 2.07k. Green day, barely. Gold slipped under 4k and ZEC lost another 6%.
Tomorrow Nebius reports before the open, Cisco and AMAT after the close. PPI Friday 8:30 ET.
Same line as yesterday for me. 75k back or I stay flat.

GM crypto and stocks crowd 🌤
Wisdom of the Day, Day 8
The trade right after a stop-out is the most dangerous one I take.
Days like yesterday with the hot CPI print are where it bites. Get chopped once and the next entry is really just me wanting the money back.
So now after a loss I get up and leave the screen for 20 minutes. If the setup is still there when I sit back down, fine. Most of the time it isn't.

GN. CPI came in hot and the tape treated it that way.
- Oct CPI +0.4% vs 0.3% expected, core +0.3% vs 0.2%
- 2y yield up almost 19bps, a December hike is basically fully priced now, with some odds on 50
- S&P -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.7%, gave back part of Monday's rip
- BTC lost 74k and sits near 73.8k, ETH around 2.06k, SOL and XRP bleeding with it
- CoreWeave beat and raised, stock green after hours
Next: bonds closed tomorrow for Veterans Day while stocks trade, so expect thin flow. Cisco and AMAT report Thursday after the close, PPI Friday 8:30 ET.
Longs got flushed again on the print. No bid I tr

Market’s gonna be volatile in an hour or so once the news drops👇
#CPI #NewsUpdate #inflation

GM crypto and stocks crowd 🫡
Wisdom of the Day, Day 7
Position size did more damage to my account than bad entries ever did.
I've had months with more losers than winners finish green. And months where I was right most of the time finish red, because two trades were way too big. I "knew" those ones.
Same risk on every trade now. If I really like a setup I get pickier about the entry. Size stays the same.

GN. Nasdaq +2.7%, S&P +2.3%, best day since April. Bitcoin finished red anyway.
Oil dumped on Iran headlines, VIX back under 20, semis ripped even with NVDA down 4% on the Huang story. BTC couldn't hold 75k and sits near 74.8k, ETH and XRP lost around 5%. Crypto sells with stocks and ignores them on the way up. Same tape as earlier this year.
Tomorrow 8:30 ET is October CPI, 0.3% headline and 0.2% core expected. CoreWeave reports after the close. A December hike is mostly priced already.
Not adding anything until 75k is reclaimed.
#Bitcoin

GM crypto and stocks crowd 🌅
Wisdom of the Day, Day 6
My best months had fewer trades than my worst ones.
Took me way too long to see it. More clicks felt productive. Mostly it was fees and me forcing setups that weren't there.
Now if nothing lines up by midday I close the charts and go for a run. Market's open again tomorrow.

$NVDA -3% | $BTC -3%, $ETH -8%
NVIDIA’s Board of Directors announced an independent investigation:
Huang “has been the target of a foreign intelligence effort.”
A committee of independent directors + outside counsel will oversee it. The company stated it has “no reason to believe that either national security or NVIDIA secrets were compromised.”
Huang remains CEO.
Huang (email to staff):
“I was unfaithful to my wife. I apologize. I take full responsibility. I support the investigation and will cooperate fully.”
China denies the allegations.
——
Before (U.S. intelligence sources):
Alice Huang (

bitcoin:native
According to Coinglass, $711.12M in LONG positions were liquidated in just 1 hour.
BTC < $73,000🙃
P.S. I did warn you—even in a bullish scenario, we were due for at least one more dip down

GN. Weekly candle is about to close red again, fifth in a row for BTC.
Sunday was dead. BTC sat around 75.9k all day, ETH near 2.23k, alts bleeding more (NEAR and a few others down double digits on the week). Spot ETFs lost roughly 1.3B last week.
Fear is high and shorts look crowded. Could squeeze, could grind lower, I'm not guessing which.
Monday has Fed speakers and MARA earnings after the close. Tuesday 8:30 ET is CPI, the real test, with a December hike mostly priced in.
Watching whether 75k holds. Sleep well 🌙

GM crypto and stocks crowd 👋
Wisdom of the Day, Day 5
One of my worst trades ever started as a small loss.
Moved the stop once to "give it room". Then again. By the time I closed it, a 1R loss had eaten weeks of gains.
These days the stop goes in with the entry and it only moves one way, tighter.

GN weekend crew 🌙 Quiet tape tonight.
US cash is closed, crypto just chopping. $BTC near $75.7K, $ETH around $2.23K, basically flat after Friday's dip into the mid-75s. Spot BTC ETFs saw about $1.3B leave this week, and Fear & Greed is still Extreme Fear. Thin books. I'm not forcing size.
Monday: Fed speakers (Bowman, Goolsbee, Barkin), China CPI/PPI in Asia hours. Real event is Tuesday CPI.
Weekend liquidity loves fakeouts. Leaving room for the open.
#Bitcoin #Crypto

$BTC
My mid-term setup for #BTC: still waiting for one more dip down into the target zone before looking for long entries.
Bullish setup is invalidated on a clean close below 62k