The crypto market under the all-time high of gold: $20 billion liquidation shows amazing resilience, with Uptober market on the horizon.

Amid the escalating global uncertainty, gold prices hit a historic high on Wednesday, reaffirming the dominance of safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, despite the crypto market experiencing the largest structural liquidation in history (over $20 billion in leveraged positions were Closed Position), the total market capitalization has rebounded to $4 trillion, showcasing remarkable resilience. On-chain data indicates that institutional interest and USDT supply are both rapidly rising, providing strong Liquidity and support for the market. Analysts believe that this big dump was purely a technical deleveraging event rather than a deterioration of fundamentals, and the market is expected to recover in the latter half of the historic "Uptober."

Macroeconomic Risks Intensify: Gold Hits New Highs Amid Dovish Fed Expectations

Geopolitical conflicts, the U.S. government shutdown, and trade tensions have collectively driven funds towards defensive assets and reinforced market expectations for a dovish turn by the Federal Reserve.

· Gold breaks historical record

Affected by global uncertainty (including Sino-U.S. trade tensions, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the long-term shutdown of the U.S. government), investors are turning to safe-haven assets, pushing gold prices to continue their rise on Wednesday, setting a new historical record.

· The dovish expectations of the Federal Reserve support gold

The market is digesting the Fed's shift to a dovish stance, with expectations for interest rate cuts continuously strengthening. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market is pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut in October, with a nearly 90% probability of another cut before the end of the year.

Investec analysts point out that "The market is preparing for potential policy easing. The slowdown in economic growth and a softer outlook for the Federal Reserve continue to support gold's appeal as a portfolio hedging tool."

· Powell's remarks intensify rate cut expectations

Recent remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell regarding the weakness in the labor market and the slowdown in inflation have further raised expectations for monetary easing, putting pressure on Treasury yields and relatively enhancing the attractiveness of gold.

Crypto Market: "Amazing Resilience" After Structural Liquidation

Despite experiencing a historic large-scale deleveraging, the total market capitalization of the crypto market quickly recovered, highlighting the technical nature of this big dump.

· The largest liquidation in history and a rapid rebound

Last weekend, the crypto market experienced the largest liquidation event in history, with over 20 billion USD in leveraged positions wiped out in a matter of hours. However, the total market capitalization quickly rebounded to 4 trillion USD.

Bitcoin failed to maintain its rebound momentum on Tuesday, falling below $111,000; Ethereum dropped by 3.7%, trading around $4,101.

· Lack of external catalysts for "structural events"

Crypto podcaster Scott Melker expressed surprise at the market's rapid rebound, pointing out that this crash is unrelated to external catalysts such as the 2017 ICO frenzy or China's mining ban, and that the FTX collapse was not involved.

Melker characterized this event as a purely structural event: the liquidation forced traders to reassess market risks, which is a technical adjustment, rather than a change in fundamentals.

Strong On-Chain Signals: Institutional Capital Inflows and Liquidity Accumulation

On-chain data and ETF inflow indicators suggest that despite significant volatility, institutions and new capital continue to flow into the crypto ecosystem, providing support for the subsequent rebound.

· Institutional support and a surge in USDT supply

CryptoQuant data shows that despite market volatility, large holders are still accumulating Bitcoin.

In the past 60 days, the USDT supply has risen by nearly 15 billion USD, marking the fastest growth rate of stablecoins since January, indicating that fiat liquidity is accumulating within the system.

· ETF capital inflow is strong

The inflow of funds into the US spot Bitcoin ETF has reached 3.5 billion USD, indicating that institutional interest remains strong even after the clearing event. Glassnode reports that the funds are still retained within the encryption ecosystem.

· De-speculation and key price levels

This sell-off has eliminated excessive speculation in the market: the funding rate for perpetual futures contracts has halved, and options traders are paying higher premiums for downside protection.

CryptoQuant determines $115,000 as the key level for Bitcoin, representing the on-chain realized price for traders. A sustained breakthrough of this level may indicate a return of bullish momentum.

Historical Patterns and Short-term Outlook: The Second Half of "Uptober" May Gain Momentum

The historical price trends and potential improvements in the macro environment provide positive expectations for Bitcoin's performance in the second half of October.

· The historical pattern of "Uptober" supports recovery

Historically, October has been a strong month for Bitcoin, recording gains in ten out of the last twelve years, hence it is referred to as "Uptober."

The strongest gains typically occur in the second half of October. In both 2024 and 2023, Bitcoin saw significant increases after October 15th. Although Bitcoin is currently down 0.6% in October, historical trends indicate that there is still a possibility of closing the month in positive territory.

· The trading tension is expected to ease.

The trade tensions that led to last weekend's crash are showing signs of easing, as President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping plan to meet to discuss trade issues. Researcher Tim Sun anticipates that the final outcome will be more moderate than the current market concerns.

· Capital rotation and valuation

Scott Melker pointed out that the shift of funds from gold to Bitcoin typically occurs after gold reaches a new high, indicating that investors are reallocating capital rather than completely exiting the crypto market.

Gold/Silver Technical Outlook and Trading Range

Under the support of macro favorable factors, the technical aspects of gold and silver remain strong, and the outlook is still bullish.

· Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis

Trading range: Expected between 4105 USD and 4245 USD.

Momentum: The price is stable around 4189 USD, receiving strong support from the 50-EMA (4083 USD) and 200-EMA (3924 USD).

Resistance and Support: Direct resistance is at 4200 USD, 4225 USD, and 4245 USD. Support is at 4168 USD and 4105 USD.

Bullish Bias: As long as the price stays above 4105 USD, the broad bullish bias will continue, targeting 4245 USD. The RSI is close to 69, indicating strong buying pressure, but it may cool off soon.

· Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Outlook

Trading Price: Trading around 52.35 USD, rising 0.31% after rebounding from the support level of 51.37 USD.

Support and Resistance: Supported by the 50-EMA (50.94 USD) and 200-EMA (47.88 USD). Direct resistance at 53.36 USD and 54.55 USD. Support levels at 51.37 USD and 49.73 USD.

Bullish: If silver breaks through 53.36 USD, it may accelerate to 54.55 USD.

Conclusion

Under the dual effects of risk aversion demand and the dovish expectations of the Federal Reserve, gold has reached an all-time high, reflecting the fragility of the current macro environment. However, Bitcoin has quickly regained market capitalization after the largest-ever structural deleveraging, highlighting its potential fundamental resilience. On-chain data showing institutional interest and accumulation of fiat liquidity, combined with the historical "Uptober" pattern, provides a positive outlook for the recovery of the crypto market in the second half of October. The market focus is on whether Bitcoin can reclaim the key territory of $115,000 to confirm that the deleveraging event has eliminated speculative bubbles and laid the foundation for the next phase of growth.

This article is news information and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions cautiously.