#CPI数据前瞻 #Gate股票畅聊季 October CPI will be released at 9:30 p.m. Beijing time on November 10, and is the last inflation report before the December rate meeting. U.S. stocks have fallen for four consecutive weeks, and this report is likely to significantly amplify market volatility. Interest rate futures currently price in nearly an 80% chance of a December rate hike.
CPI will determine which way that probability moves:
Higher than expected: The probability of a rate hike could climb above 90%, with the Nasdaq and semiconductor stocks under the most pressure.
In line with expectations: The probability of a rate hike will largely hold steady, and the market will digest the data in line with existing expectations, with relatively little volatility.
Lower than expected: Rate hike expectations will cool, and tech stocks could rebound.
This time, watch the month-over-month figure, not the year-over-year figure
The government shutdown in October 2025 meant the Bureau of Labor Statistics had no price samples for that month, so it will not release the 12-month year-over-year figure this time.
The market is mainly watching the month-over-month figures: both headline and core CPI are expected to rise 0.3%. Core CPI has risen 0.3% for two consecutive months; another 0.3% increase in October would be seen as a sign that inflation remains very sticky. The housing component is also crucial, as it directly affects whether another rate hike is needed.
Can the struggling U.S. stock market stop falling?
A soft CPI reading could give this downturn a chance to catch its breath. But rate hike expectations are already largely priced in by the market ahead of the policy meeting, and it will be difficult to change the direction unless the data comes in significantly below expectations.
If CPI comes in hotter than expected, and the escalation of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz coincides with continued deleveraging in tech stocks, Treasury yields could be pushed back above 5%, triggering cross-asset liquidity stress.
CPI will determine which way that probability moves:
Higher than expected: The probability of a rate hike could climb above 90%, with the Nasdaq and semiconductor stocks under the most pressure.
In line with expectations: The probability of a rate hike will largely hold steady, and the market will digest the data in line with existing expectations, with relatively little volatility.
Lower than expected: Rate hike expectations will cool, and tech stocks could rebound.
This time, watch the month-over-month figure, not the year-over-year figure
The government shutdown in October 2025 meant the Bureau of Labor Statistics had no price samples for that month, so it will not release the 12-month year-over-year figure this time.
The market is mainly watching the month-over-month figures: both headline and core CPI are expected to rise 0.3%. Core CPI has risen 0.3% for two consecutive months; another 0.3% increase in October would be seen as a sign that inflation remains very sticky. The housing component is also crucial, as it directly affects whether another rate hike is needed.
Can the struggling U.S. stock market stop falling?
A soft CPI reading could give this downturn a chance to catch its breath. But rate hike expectations are already largely priced in by the market ahead of the policy meeting, and it will be difficult to change the direction unless the data comes in significantly below expectations.
If CPI comes in hotter than expected, and the escalation of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz coincides with continued deleveraging in tech stocks, Treasury yields could be pushed back above 5%, triggering cross-asset liquidity stress.
